Warning: package 'brms' was built under R version 4.4.1Warning: package 'tidybayes' was built under R version 4.4.1N Parameters
# A tibble: 344,084 × 6
voted treatment sex age_z civ_engage voter_class
<int> <fct> <chr> <dbl> <int> <fct>
1 0 Civic Duty Male 1.05 4 Sometimes Vote
2 0 Civic Duty Female 0.638 4 Sometimes Vote
3 1 Hawthorne Male 0.361 4 Sometimes Vote
4 1 Hawthorne Female 0.430 4 Sometimes Vote
5 1 Hawthorne Female -1.78 4 Sometimes Vote
6 0 No Postcard Male -1.72 1 Rarely Vote
7 1 No Postcard Female -0.193 4 Sometimes Vote
8 1 No Postcard Male 0.0148 4 Sometimes Vote
9 0 No Postcard Female -0.816 2 Rarely Vote
10 0 No Postcard Male -0.747 4 Sometimes Vote
# ℹ 344,074 more rows
Using data from a survey conducted prior to the August 2006 primary election in Michigan, we seek the causal effect of postcards on casting a vote in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial general election. However, the 2006 primary election in Michigan may not be similar enough to the 2026 gubernatorial general in Texas. There seems to be a correlation between postcards and votes, however this may not apply to the 2026 Texas election.
\[voted_{i} = \beta_{0} + \beta_{1}civic\_duty_i + \beta_{2}hawthorne_i + \beta_{3}self_i + \beta_{4}neighbors_i + \beta_{5}male_i + \epsilon_{i}\]