Four Parameters: Categorical

Author

Alan Tao

The question is: What was the relationship between sex and voting in the 1992 US Presidential election among supporters of the three leading candidates: Clinton, Bush and Perot? I have looked at the preceptor table, examined validity, the population table, stability, representativeness, and unconfoundedness. I have made a model and took samples from it to get the posterior distribution for expected probability of candidates supporting among women.

\[\begin{aligned} \rho_{clinton} &=& \frac{e^{\beta_{0, clinton} + \beta_{1, clinton} male}}{1 + e^{\beta_{0, clinton} + \beta_{1, clinton} male}}\\ \rho_{perot} &=& \frac{e^{\beta_{0, perot} + \beta_{1, perot} male}}{1 + e^{\beta_{0, perot} + \beta_{1, perot} male}}\\ \rho_{bush} &=& 1 - \rho_{clinton} - \rho_{perot} \end{aligned}\]
Characteristic Beta 95% CI1
muClinton_(Intercept) 0.45 0.31, 0.60
muPerot_(Intercept) -0.85 -1.1, -0.64
muClinton_sexMale -0.25 -0.48, -0.03
muPerot_sexMale 0.42 0.14, 0.69
1 CI = Credible Interval