analysis

What is the probability that the next man we meet will be taller than 180 centimeters?

 Family: gaussian 
  Links: mu = identity; sigma = identity 
Formula: height ~ 1 
   Data: ch5 (Number of observations: 3658) 
  Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;
         total post-warmup draws = 4000

Regression Coefficients:
          Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
Intercept   175.87      0.12   175.63   176.10 1.00     3936     2865

Further Distributional Parameters:
      Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
sigma     7.48      0.09     7.31     7.66 1.00     3769     2573

Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

Characteristic	Beta	95% CI1
(Intercept)	176	176, 176
1 CI = Credible Interval

# A tibble: 1 × 2
   .row  odds
  <int> <dbl>
1     1 0.291

I used the nhanes data and examined validity, stability, representativeness, and unconfoundedness. I also created a histogram plot of all the heights of adult males. One problem is that the measuring techniques might be unknown. I then created a bayesian regression model. Then I used that model to add multiple draws and then calculate the proportion of draws that were taller than 180 centimeters. The question is : what is the probability that the next man we meet will be taller than 180 centimeters?