Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Turkey, India, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Moldova, Serbia, Philippines. We are forecasting major events for India.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

India

For India, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of February 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in April: In Bengaluru, activists and citizens have criticized the Bangalore Water Supply and Sewerage Board and the Karnataka Ground Water Authority for their handling of a severe water shortage, resulting in restrictions on the use of potable water for non-essential purposes and sparking public outrage. The Supreme Court deemed the electoral bonds scheme unconstitutional, leading to calls for an investigation into the relationships between corporations, political parties, and government entities. Environmental activism saw a significant victory in Navi Mumbai where the National Green Tribunal ruled in favor of activists against the sale of a Coastal Regulation Zone plot, protecting it from development. Additionally, the Supreme Court dismissed of a petition against cross-gender massages in Delhi.

• Censorship in April and May: The Central Board of Film Certification refused to screen a film for unspecified reasons. At the same time, the Election Commission of India enforced actions against two MPs for their remarks during campaigning and demanded for a social media platform to remove certain political posts. Additionally, there were allegations by Kerala’s Chief Minister against the Sangh Parivar for pressuring media outlets. The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology blocked a political party’s official social media account, and the Election Commission of India’s forected to remove content from social media that targeted specific communities. Additionally, there have been reports of the Odisha police’s crackdown on offensive political posts, the judiciary’s intervention in halting certain political advertisements, and the censoring of opposition speeches by public broadcasters.

• Corruption in March and April: The Enforcement Directorate arrested Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and Bharat Rashtra Samithi legislator K Kavitha in separate incidents connected to the Delhi Liquor Policy scam. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court offered reprieve to Karnataka Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar by dismissing a money laundering probe against him. Additionally, the CBI charged multiple institutions and individuals in the Himachal Pradesh scholarship scam. Furthermore, allegations surfaced that bribes were channeled into the Aam Aadmi Party’s campaign for the Goa Assembly polls. In Rajasthan, a businessman was arrested for the illegal manufacture and sale of methaqualone tablets, uncovering significant pharmaceutical-related crimes. Meanwhile, a former Jharkhand chief minister was detained in a money laundering probe linked to land grabbing. The Delhi excise policy scandal led to arrests over the manipulation of government policies for illicit benefits, including the apprehension of a BRS leader and the alleged involvement of the Chief Minister of Delhi. Additionally, in Andhra Pradesh, the YSR Congress Party leaders faced accusations of misappropriating massive sums from the State’s debt.

• Defamation Cases in April and May: The Supreme Court offered relief to a retired IPS officer in a defamation case filed by a famed cricketer, while the Bombay High Court provided a reprieve to an IRS officer against actions from the Narcotics Control Bureau. Additionally, various high-profile legal battles have unfolded, including summons issued to a political leader over misinformation, a familial defamation suit involving a Member of Parliament, and a defamation case filed by a BJP leader against the Delhi Chief Minister and a Cabinet Minister. A Delhi court convicted activist Medha Patkar in a defamation case. Concurrently, notable political figures, including Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and Aam Aadmi Party leader Atishi, find themselves embroiled in defamation cases.

• Disaster in May: A severe heatwave swept through northern India, breaking temperature records in cities like Sirsa, Haryana, and impacting daily life in Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Punjab with severe health risks. Cyclone Remal induced heavy rains and landslips in Mizoram, resulting in at least 37 deaths and displacing hundreds, while the southern state of Kerala saw torrential rainfall causing four deaths with the India Meteorological Department issuing red warnings for more extreme weather. Bihar also faced deadly heat, leading to 14 deaths, including polling personnel, prompting temporary closures of schools and institutions. Moreover, Manipur experienced significant flooding and a damaging hailstorm, necessitating emergency aid from the European Union.

• Legal Actions in March and May: The Supreme Court of India recently made headlines for refusing to entertain a plea regarding the release of an individual accused in a high-profile corruption case, and for dismissing a petition by the Centre seeking to modify the rules about the provision of arrest grounds by the Enforcement Directorate. Meanwhile, the Delhi High Court has taken a significant step by admitting an appeal by the Central Bureau of Investigation challenging the acquittal of a former minister and others in a major corruption case related to 2G spectrum allocation. Additionally, a former university professor was acquitted in a case linked to Maoist activities by the Nagpur Bench of the Bombay High Court, a decision that the state government is challenging. In another development, the judiciary demonstrated its stern stance against hate crimes by sentencing three individuals to life imprisonment for a murder driven by religious or racial bias. A UK court recently rejected a bail plea by an individual involved in a significant fraud case, emphasizing concerns over potential abscondment. Meanwhile, the legal landscape in India saw notable developments with the Delhi High Court overturning a major financial order against SpiceJet and a local court in Uttar Pradesh delivering a stringent verdict in a case of gender-based violence. Additionally, the Supreme Court of India is set to revisit the acquittals in the notorious Noida Nithari killings. Furthermore, a political party has been named in a money laundering case by the Enforcement Directorate.

• Security Mobilization in March, April and May: The deployment of nearly 65,000 personnel from paramilitary forces for the Lok Sabha elections in West Bengal was reported as one of the largest security operations for electoral processes in sensitive areas. The Indian Air Force’s conduct of the war drill ‘Gagan Shakti’ in Jaisalmer further underscored the emphasis on military preparedness and capabilities in strategic regions. Additionally, Delhi experienced a significant mobilization of security forces following the arrest of Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. Meanwhile, in Assam, security forces were mobilized in response to protests over CAA rules. Over 80,000 police and security personnel were deployed in Uttar Pradesh, around 15,000 in Maoist-affected areas of Maharashtra, and approximately 10,000 in Tamil Nadu to cover “vulnerable” locations before the Lok Sabha polls. Furthermore, Tripura saw the engagement of over 20,000 security personnel, including central and state forces, for its election process. Additionally, Delhi implemented security arrangements involving 20,000 police personnel for Ram Navami, aiming to prevent communal clashes and ensure safety in sensitive areas. Indian military personnel were withdrawn from the Maldives following demands by its new president. Additionally, India saw one of its largest mobilizations of security forces for the sixth phase of parliamentary elections across 15 districts in Uttar Pradesh, deploying over 125,000 civil police personnel, home guards, along with additional forces from the Provincial Armed Constabulary and Central Armed Police Forces. Furthermore, security in parts of New Delhi was significantly enhanced in anticipation of rallies by major political figures, involving a deployment of around 3,000 personnel, which likely affected both civil liberties and daily life in the national capital.

• Purge/Replace in March, April and May: Nayab Singh Saini was inaugurated as the new chief minister of Haryana, representing a considerable realignment in the state’s political landscape following the departure of the Jannayak Janata Party from the governing coalition. Moreover, the resignation of Arun Goel from his position as an Election Commissioner just before the announcement of the Lok Sabha election schedule has sparked widespread speculation and concerns about the Election Commission’s stability and the motivations behind his departure. Additionally, in a proactive measure, the Election Commission has directed significant administrative changes across several states ahead of the Lok Sabha elections by ordering the replacement of several key officials, including Home Secretaries in six states and the Director General of Police in West Bengal. Separately, in Odisha, Bhartruhari Mahtab, a prominent member of the BJD, and two former MLAs resigned. The Delhi government’s Directorate of Vigilance terminated the services of the chief minister’s private secretary over a decades-old case. Similarly, the Election Commission took proactive measures by suspending 106 Telangana government officials for participating in a political meeting and ordering the transfer of top officials in Andhra Pradesh to maintain impartiality during the election period. Furthermore, former Union minister Birender Singh and his wife shifted from the BJP to the Congress. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) saw a major shift with the removal of the party president’s nephew from a key position. In Arunachal Pradesh, 28 BJP members were expelled for contesting against official party candidates. Meanwhile, in Karnataka, a corruption scandal involving a substantial financial sum has led to the suspension of officials and calls for a minister’s resignation. Additionally, the Delhi Commission for Women (DCW) experienced a considerable reduction in workforce due to the termination of contractual employees.

• Raids in March and May: In Hyderabad, the Enforcement Directorate’s search of a political leader’s residence in connection with a liquor policy case underscored political ramifications. Simultaneously, the National Investigation Agency expanded its efforts by raiding 30 locations to break up terrorist and gangster networks. Concurrently, the Central Bureau of Investigation pursued a substantial financial scam linked to UCO Bank, searching 67 locations in Rajasthan and Maharashtra. In Karnataka, Lokayukta officials’ raids on government officials unveiled considerable disproportionate assets, while in Maharashtra, the Mumbai Police dismantled a significant narcotic manufacturing operation. The Enforcement Directorate (ED) made a historic seizure of over Rs. 110 crore worth of cash, liquor, and drugs in Jharkhand ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, targeting the homes of political figures and their associates for substantial illegal wealth accumulation. Similar raids by the ED in Ranchi resulted in the recovery of approximately Rs. 20 crore, implicating government officials in financial misconduct. Meanwhile, the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence and the Central Crime Branch have respectively seized a large haul of foreign cigarettes in Mumbai and busted a rave party in Bangalore. Additionally, the Income Tax department’s searches in Agra have recovered significant amounts of unaccounted cash from footwear manufacturers.

• Lethal Violence in April: In India, a family tragedy unfolded in Gadag, Karnataka, where four members of a family, including Karthik Prakash Bakale, were murdered over a property dispute, involving a complex scheme of contract killing allegedly orchestrated by the victim’s half-brother. In a separate event, security forces in Chhattisgarh conducted a major anti-Naxal operation resulting in the death of 29 Naxalites in the Kanker district.

• Non-lethal Violence in April and May: Manipur experienced severe ethnic conflict involving gunfights between the Metei and Kuki communities. Furthermore, in West Bengal, there were allegations of a community procession being vandalized, followed by a denial from the Bengal Police. Concurrently, tensions between farmers and political party workers in Jind, Haryana led to violent confrontations, and in Kerala, a family faced aggression from CPI(M) workers over a land dispute. Additionally, there was a clash between political party supporters in Karnataka at a polling station.

Forecasting

Our standard forecasting models are predicting jumps in reporting on Civic Space Index in Q3 2024, and Q4 2024; jumps in reporting on Arrests in Q3 2024, and Q4 2024; a jump in reporting on Legal Actions in Q4 2024; jumps in reporting on Corruption in Q3 2024, and Q4 2024; a jump in reporting on Purge/Replace in Q3 2024; and a jump in reporting on Lethal Violence in Q3 2024.

Indonesia

For Indonesia, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Censorship in May: The Press Council and local authorities took steps to limit press freedom and control political expression, with the Press Council noting a 17-year effort to censor the press and local authorities in Depok removing politically related banners. Furthermore, the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) and the government pursued censorship in anti-corruption efforts and internet freedom by preventing public discussions of corruption allegations and requesting the blocking of websites related to online gambling, respectively.

• Corruption in April and May: The Attorney General’s Office and the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) targeted cases involving significant figures and sectors, revealing corruption in the tin trade system with losses amounting to Rp 271 trillion. There have been reports of the arrest of former officials in the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources to local government and customs. Allegations range from the misappropriation of social aid funds and involvement in corrupt practices within the Ministry of Agriculture to extensive corruption cases involving the tin and gold commodities markets, with losses to the state estimated in the trillions of Rupiah.

• Defamation Cases in May: A social media figure, Adam Deni, has been imprisoned for defaming politician Ahmad Saroni. Similarly, the capital’s Department of Transportation pressed charges against individuals for illegal fee imposition. Former minister Yasin Limpo has been tried on charges of gratification and extortion. Additionally, there has been political defamation faced by Anies Baswedan during a pivotal electoral period.

• Disaster in April and May: The eruption of Mount Semeru in East Java and North Sulawesi’s Mount Ruang highlighted the volcanic activity affecting the nation, leading to evacuations and significant public safety concerns. Additionally, a 6. 2 magnitude earthquake in Garut, West Java, caused widespread damage to buildings and necessitated emergency responses in several regions. There has been major flooding in Pasuruan, East Java, affecting thousands of homes and exposing numerous families to flooding. Moreover, an urban challenge was underscored by a significant fire at the Yayasan Legal Aid Society Indonesia building in Central Jakarta. Flash floods and cold lava flow from a volcano in western Indonesia and the eruption of Mother’s Mountain in West Halmahera have together resulted in the deaths and displacement of thousands. Additionally, heavy rains in Luwu, South Sulawesi caused lethal floods and landslides, while a bus accident in West Java and a Dengue Fever outbreak across several regions, including Jakarta.

• Legal Actions in April and May: The Constitutional Court dismissed a case against a former president for lack of evidence while ruling against objections to election results. Meanwhile, the Corruption Eradication Commission designated a regent as a suspect in a corruption case, and significant sentences were handed down in cases involving bribery and corruption, including a landmark investigation by the Attorney General’s Office into a massive corruption and money laundering case. Former Minister of Agriculture and other public officials, including ministers and a Supreme Justice, have faced accusations involving corruption, extortion, gratification, and money laundering. The investigations have touched various sectors, from agriculture and the tin trade to law enforcement, evidencing a widespread scrutiny by entities like the Corruption Eracation Commission and the Attorney General’s Office. Additionally, the legal system, including the Constitutional Court and district courts, has been actively addressing these allegations.

• Legal Changes in March and May: The Jakarta Special Region Act was passed, marking a notable change in Jakarta’s administration by specifying its unique status, including provisions for the direct election of its governor and vice-governor. Additionally, reforms to the 2014 Village Law were implemented to improve local governance and rural development across the country. Furthermore, the approval of a legal reform has been approved to accommodate digital financial transactions by revising the ITE Act No. 1 Year 2024, and it has been coupled with the Constitutional Court’s removal of sections used to combat hoaxes. The State Ministry Act was revised to provide flexibility in government ministry structures to enhance cabinet performance. Meanwhile, there have been changes to the People’s Housing Savings program and adjustments in the minimum age requirement for regional head candidates. Amendments to the Publishing Act raised concerns about press freedom, and modifications to the TNI Law prompted discussions on the civil-military boundary.

• Security Mobilization in March and April: Jakarta mobilized a considerable force of 3,055 personnel to ensure the 2024 election announcement proceeded smoothly. Similarly, special security arrangements were put in place for the Ed Sheeran concert. Across the nation, tens of thousands of personnel were deployed to secure Idulfitri celebrations. Additionally, a significant number of security forces were deployed in Jakarta to manage public protests and demonstrations. During Ramadan, increased patrols and the deployment of a significant number of personnel in various locations including Jakarta and Depok were reported. Numerous personnel, including police and military forces, were deployed to ensure the security of citizens during the Eid al-Fitr 2024 holiday, the Presidential Election verdict, the World Water Forum in Bali, the Lebaran holiday, and the Idulfitri Day. Notably, 67,955 TNI soldiers were deployed for the Eid al-Fitr holiday and of 155,165 joint personnel were mobilized for Operation Ketupat 2024.

• Protests in April and May: Over 100,000 supporters of presidential candidates converged in Jakarta, seeking a fair decision from the Constitutional Court on the 2024 presidential election disputes. Meanwhile, 50,000 workers rallied to commemorate International Labor Day, demanding improved labor rights and working conditions. Additionally, environmental awareness was a focus as citizens protested in Jakarta before Earth Day. Moreover, a notable gathering at the Constitutional Court involved protesters, including mothers and the elderly, demanding fairness in the 2024 vice-presidential contest. On May 1, 2024, International Labor Day, protests highlighted issues ranging from labor rights and gender-based discrimination to the rise in college fees and political grievances. Additionally, on May 21, 2024, Indonesians marked the 26th anniversary of the Reform Era. Furthermore, journalists in Jakarta rallied on May 27, 2024, against proposed revisions to the 2002 Act of Publishing, expressing fears that these changes would undermine press freedom in the country.

• Lethal Violence in April: The ongoing conflict in Papua saw the Cartenz Peace Operations Unit neutralizing two members of an armed criminal group in Mimika. Furthermore, cases of personal violence were highlighted with a woman being fatally stabbed in Tangerang and an off-duty Army TNI member murdered.

• Non-lethal Violence in April and May: Tensions arose during an open house Eid event at the State Palace in Jakarta, leading to a public disturbance between attendees. Meanwhile, clashes between the Indonesian National Armed Forces and the Papua Merdeka Organization in Papua necessitated a significant security operation. There have been reports of robberies in West Java and Central Java, alongside a notable incident of youth violence in Makassar caught on CCTV. In Papua, the burning of an elementary school by the Papua Merdeka Organization incited fear amidst gunfire. Jakarta witnessed a violent clash between football supporters at Manggarai Station.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan’s results are password protected. Please email for access.

Moldova

For Moldova, our data includes coverage through June 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of February 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Censorship in May and June: Numerous media outlets and websites were blocked for their alleged pro-Russian stance or ownership. The Audiovisual Council issued warnings and sanctions against various local media, including a radio station and nine television stations, for failing to meet journalistic standards and local programming laws. The Journalist Research Centre websites were targeted in a cyber-attack, and many television stations and websites were reportedly shut down by pro-government forces. The government’s actions included suspending broadcasting licenses, blocking websites promoting certain narratives, and imposing fines on media outlets for information rights violations. The European Court of Human Rights decided to hear a case against Moldova for the ban of a political party and the blocking of Facebook pages associated with certain public figures.

• Corruption in April: At Chisinau International Airport, the Democratic Party of Moldova, the judiciary, and public services, high-ranking officials and entities were involved in cases of illegal embezzlement, passive corruption, and illicit acquisition of state-owned land. These cases highlight issues affecting Moldova’s political, legal, and public sectors.

• Disaster in June: Severe storms between May 30 and June 3, and again on June 8, in Moldova caused extensive destruction, including torrential rains, strong winds, damage to agricultural lands, power outages, and resulted in fatalities and injuries. The storms caused severe damage to infrastructure, such as fallen trees. Moldova also faces public health challenges, with acute diarrheal diseases annually affecting up to 20,000 people, predominantly children, indicating a need for enhanced water quality and sanitation. Additionally, a national food safety crisis has been triggered by contaminated water in Chisinau’s lakes and a porcine plague outbreak, raising concerns for public health and agricultural stability.

• Legal Actions in April and May: The Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s office announced a major crackdown on corruption, securing orders and seizures worth millions, and high-level political figures, including the governor of Gagauzia, faced court charges over allegations of accepting financing from organized crime. A former judge was convicted in the Laundromat case for issuing an illegal decision. Former Prime Minister Vlad Filat was acquitted in a major money laundering case, a decision that the Anti-Corruption Office (PA) is seeking to overturn.

• Legal Changes in April: The Constitutional Court approved an amendment concerning the referendum on European integration. The Parliament suspended the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, indicating a change in Moldova’s defense strategy and stance on regional security matters.

• Security Mobilization in May: The “Swift Response-2024” military exercise marked a collaboration between Moldovan and American troops to boost capacity, interoperability, and modern training techniques. The National Army of Moldova has been preparing its reserve forces and engaging units such as the “Fulger” Battalion in specialized drills to improve combat skills.

• Raids in May and June: Police seized informational materials related to the activities of the opposition, citing “agitation” as the reason for the confiscation. Authorities in Orhei dismantled a network of drug dealers operating through the Telegram application, seizing an array of drugs. An ex-public official from Hancești was raided by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Hancești District Prosecutors for corruption. The National Anti-Corruption Centre (CNA) carried out raids against employees of the State Tax Service (SFS) in a crackdown on corruption. In Floresti, law enforcement dismantled an organized crime group engaged in the cultivation and marketing of drugs.

• Non-lethal Violence in May: An individual threw flammable substances at the Russian Federation Ambassador to Chisinau during the Russian presidential election day.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Serbia

For Serbia, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of February 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in March and April: Citizens and activists submitted petitions to prevent the demolition of the Fair complex in Belgrade and the replacement of the bombed-out General Staff building, expressing a strong desire for preservation and commemoration. Concurrently, efforts to recognize the unauthorized sharing of intimate content as a criminal offense gained support, as did campaigns for the protection of journalists and media workers. Additionally, environmental concerns were raised regarding the privatization of water services and the threats to water sources from mining, underlining the challenges facing sustainable access to drinkable water for millions in the country. The push for fair elections involved significant social mobilization, with some participants facing imprisonment for their activism. Efforts to preserve cultural and historical aspects of Serbian urban areas were highlighted by campaigns in Belgrade’s Vračar district, aimed at limiting visual pollution and declaring certain neighborhoods as protected zones. Environmental activism was also a focal point, with movements advocating for a moratorium on forest cutting in Fruška Gora National Park and initiatives for sustainable urban planning, such as transforming a street into a pedestrian zone. Additionally, human rights organizations in Serbia supported international efforts to remember the Srebrenica genocide.

• Censorship in April and May: The Complaints Commission of the Press Council identified multiple media outlets, notably portal Alo.rs and Kurir, for unethical reporting on LGBT rights and the death of individuals. Concurrently, acts of censorship and discrimination were highlighted by the Independent Association of Journalists of Serbia (NUNS) and the Serbia Center Party (SRCE), including the barring of a journalist from covering municipal matters and discriminatory reports against the Vlach national minority. The Committee to Protect Journalists flagged an “epidemic of attacks” against journalists critical of the government. Furthermore, the Youth Initiative for Human Rights accused RTV Pink of misusing video materials to incite hatred and violence, an act criticized for misinforming the public and undermining political opposition. Additionally, the forbidden entry of Patriarch Porfiri into the Patriarchate of Peć for a religious event exemplifies the intrusion into religious practices, while the broadcasting of a manipulated video by TV Pink represents an abuse of media to discredit political figures.

• Corruption in March and May: The president and general secretary of the Military Union of Serbia were detained for embezzling funds. Additionally, the arrest of individuals involved in international drug and arms trading and laundering millions through real estate investments underscores the country’s role in broader criminal networks. There have been reports involving the misuse of public funds through payments to phantom organizations. Moreover, a widespread crackdown on money laundering and fraud led to the arrest of over fifty individuals. There has been a trial concerning a group involved in laundering over six million euros. Cases of embezzlement within companies and sophisticated cross-border fraud schemes further illuminate the broader issues of internal and international criminal activities affecting Serbia. Additionally, there have been accusations of political corruption tied to the misuse of municipal funds for electoral advantages and the controversy surrounding the appointment of individuals under US sanctions to government positions.

• Defamation Cases in March: The Court of Appeal in Belgrade upheld a judgment favoring the newspaper Danas against Dejan Đorđević’s lawsuit. Dragan J. Vučićević received a prison sentence for extended insults toward a journalist. Legal actions continued with an SNS official filing a lawsuit against a journalist over allegations of attempted bribery linked to the Jovanjica case. Additionally, the president of the Association of Independent Electronic Media reported multiple open cases against journalists. Moreover, there has been a lawsuit filed by deputies of the Green-Left Front against Minister Goran Vesić for insult on social media.

• Legal Changes in April: The Serbian Parliament recently adopted amendments to the Law on Local Elections, facilitating the organization of regular local elections alongside the Belgrade elections scheduled for June 2. This legislative update, recommended by the OSCE/ODIHR, meets the opposition’s demands and is anticipated to substantially influence the electoral process and governance at local levels within the country.

• Purge/Replace in April: The Zajedno party saw widespread resignations after dissolving committees in several cities due to disagreements over local election participation. In the healthcare sector, Dr. Dragan Veličković, head of the Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics in Vranje, has been dismissed following a patient’s death. Additionally, Šćiprim Arifi, president of the Preševo municipality, who accused the Serbian government of authoritarian practices, was removed.

• Raids in May: Authorities arrested 13 individuals suspected of online fraud as part of an international operation. At the same time, a local incident involved the sealing of the Democratic Party’s premises in Prokuplje and the forceful entry by a political movement leader into a municipality office in Novi Belgrade. Additionally, a police raid uncovering illegal tobacco products points to the persistent efforts to clamp down on contraband within the country.

• Lethal Violence in May: The brother of the Vice President of the Government of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina was brutally beaten to death by hooligans in a children’s park in Voždovac, Belgrade. Additionally, the country was reminded of the horror of a mass murder that occurred a year ago, where a young individual killed nine and wounded thirteen people in the villages of Malo Orašje and Dubona.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Turkey

For Turkey, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of February 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in April and May: Refugees in Antalya, including Iranian Omid Eshagh, went on a hunger strike to protest against torture and violations of their asylum-seeking rights. Environmental activists in İzmir Çeşme and Aydın Kuşadası rallied for the preservation of natural areas and addressed environmental degradation, such as sewage spills into Ilıca Bay. Workers and citizens in Ankara’s Altındağ Municipality protested against poor working conditions. Student activism at ODTÜ opposed the banning of the Spring Festival. Over 100,000 people signed a petition to oppose a draft bill threatening unadopted street animals, pushing for sterilization campaigns. Intellectuals and advocates called for the release of individuals arrested during May 1st Labor and Solidarity Day. NGOs and locals in the Milas and Söke districts rallied against mining operations on Mount Latmos to protect historical and natural sites.

• Corruption in March: Over 105 million lira in corruption was unearthed at the Federation of Drivers and Motorists (TSHOF), implicating 11 individuals, including the president of the İstanbul taxi drivers chamber. An investigation targeted İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality officials and district officials from the Republican People’s Party, revealing a scandal involving over 40 million dollars. In a separate case, Ayhan Bora Kaplan was found to be leading an organized crime group, resulting in significant arrests and investigations within his network.

• Defamation Cases in May: High-profile political figures, including a former CHP leader and the former Co-Chair of the Peoples’ Democratic Party, faced legal actions with charges ranging from defamation to insulting government institutions. Legal challenges extended into social media and sports, involving a prominent football manager and an attorney in cases concerning defamation and free speech.

• Legal Actions in May: An investigation was initiated into local officials following the collapse of the Grand Isias Hotel in Adıyaman, resulting in 72 fatalities due to the earthquakes on February 6, 2023. A former co-chair of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) received a 42-year prison sentence in the Kobani case. A figure from the Gezi Park protests was sentenced to aggravated life imprisonment. The Professional Football Disciplinary Board (PFDK) issued sanctions against the Fenerbahçe Club President for anti-sportsmanship behavior.

• Legal Changes in April and May: The Ministry of National Education in Turkey introduced a new curriculum, the “Turkey Century Maarif Model,” affecting all academic levels with mandatory courses starting from the 2024-2025 academic year. The Turkish government enacted export restrictions on 54 product groups to Israel. The Constitutional Court of Turkey annulled a law that allowed municipalities to demolish illegal structures on public land without a court decision. The Turkish Grand National Assembly passed laws to regulate the market by increasing penalties for hoarding and addressing price surges, and introduced regulations on crypto assets. A proposal to handle unclaimed street animals sparked public debate and concerns from animal rights organizations. The legal framework for the Turkish Armed Forces and the civil aviation sector was reinforced to enhance military discipline and improve airport security measures for passenger safety.

• Security Mobilization in May: Turkey participated in NATO’s largest post-Cold War exercise with 90,000 soldiers across 32 Alliance members to bolster the alliance’s northeastern borders. In Istanbul, 22,000 police officers were deployed to restrict access to Taksim Square during May 1st Labor and Solidarity Day demonstrations. Turkey launched extensive security operations against suspected armed terrorist organizations in multiple provinces, including Şırnak, Diyarbakır, and Van, backed by helicopters and involving hundreds of teams. Operations “Mahzen-47” and “Mahzen-39” targeted organized crime and terrorist groups.

• Protests in April and May: Thousands of people, orchestrated by the IH Humanitarian Aid Foundation, marched in Istanbul to protest against Israel’s actions in Gaza, criticizing the severe impact on civilians. Significant protests arose in Ankara and Istanbul, with many activists detained. The German President’s visit to Gaziantep garnered protests by the Gaziantep Jerusalem Platform. Turkish lawyers organized a “Grand Defence March” in Ankara, emphasizing the challenges facing the legal profession and the importance of the rule of law. On Labor and Solidarity Day, a significant police presence in Taksim Square indicated tensions over labor issues. The tragic shooting of a school principal by an expelled student raised concerns over violence in educational settings. Nationwide protests reflected various grievances, from solidarity with Palestinian academic institutions to pensioners demanding economic relief in İzmir. In Diyarbakır, the termination of 230 workers by municipalities post-election prompted protests over labor rights.

• Raids in April and May: Operation “Serk-16” in Turkey led to the seizure of 912 weapons and the processing of 959 suspects across 71 districts for unlicensed arms trafficking. The İstanbul Anadolu Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office and multiple law enforcement agencies targeted illegal weapons production and trade. Operations against the PKK armed terrorist organization and narcotics trafficking in Istanbul were executed. The Interior Minister announced the seizure of 217 kg of drugs and 111,000 drug units in 52 counties under Operation “NARKOCECIC-15.” The KISKAC-15 Operation targeted individuals associated with the Fetullahçı Terror Organization (FETO) in various regions. Operations in Aydın, Erzincum, and Karaman dismantled three separate organized crime groups.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Philippines

For Philippines, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of February 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Censorship in April: The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the Philippines requested the removal of the Binance cryptocurrency trading app from major app stores.

• Defamation Cases in May: Bell-Kenz Pharma Inc. initiated a cyber libel case against a health advocate over accusations of unethical marketing. A former senator filed libel and cyber libel complaints against a former Presidential Spokesperson and others. A well-known actress pursued cyber libel charges against showbiz columnists and online personalities. Cases of alleged harassment and the challenge of regulating online content also emerged.

• Legal Actions in May: The Taguig Regional Trial Court sentenced Cedric Lee, Deniece Cornejo, and two others to perpetual imprisonment for the serious illegal detention of Vhong Navarro. Ominta Romato Maute was sentenced to up to 40 years for financing terrorism related to the Marawi siege. The government filed charges against those involved in selling a newborn on social media. The Supreme Court moved the trial of Apollo Quiboloy to Quezon City to ensure fair trials. The Senate investigated Bamban Mayor Alice Guo’s alleged involvement in money laundering connected to Philippine Offshore Gaming Operations.

• Legal Changes in March and May: The House of Representatives approved an amendment to the 1987 Constitution to attract more foreign investments by easing restrictions in specific industries. The “Philippine Salt Industry Development Act” was signed into law to revitalize and modernize the salt industry. The “No Permit, No Exam Prohibition Act” ensures that all students can complete their exams despite unpaid fees. Congress ratified the “Philippine Maritime Zones Act” to affirm the country’s maritime territory claims. A bill was passed to revoke the franchise of Sonshine Media Network International for multiple violations. The House of Representatives also approved the Absolute Divorce Bill. The Eddie Garcia Law was enacted to enhance workplace safety in the movie and television industry. Legislative efforts to amend the Rice Tariffication Law have advanced. Increased patrols by the Philippine Coast Guard and Armed Forces have been implemented to safeguard sovereignty over contested waters.

• Security Mobilization in March, April and May: Approximately 52,000 police and Bureau of Fire Protection personnel were deployed nationwide during Holy Week. Over 8,000 safety and security personnel were deployed for the 87th Araw ng Dabaw in Davao City. The Philippine Army conducted its first-ever large-scale defense exercise against potential foreign invasions, involving up to 5,000 troops. The Philippine Coast Guard deployed its modern vessel, BRP Gabriela Silang, to patrol waters around Batanes and Benham Rise due to reports of foreign activities. The “Balikatan” joint military exercises with the United States involved over 16,700 troops. The Philippine Navy reported unusual activities with the sighting of at least 16 Chinese maritime militia vessels near Recto Bank. Over 60,000 officers and volunteers were deployed for the dry season and major holidays.

• Purge/Replace in May: Key positions in the Senate, including the Senate President, were replaced. A major purge within the National Capital Region Police Office led to the dismissal of hundreds of officers for misconduct. Local officials in Bohol and Bamban were suspended for alleged misuse of office, including corruption and connections to illegal activities.

Forecasting

In our last report, our models predicted an increase in reporting Legal Actions in Q1 2024.

We did not see a spike in reporting on Legal Actions in Q1 2024. However, we did see a spike in reporting on Legal Actions in Q2.

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Sri Lanka

For Sri Lanka, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of February 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Censorship in April: A permanent court injunction has stopped the former president from functioning as the chairman of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party. Concurrently, access to the SLFP headquarters in Colombo has been suspended due to an ongoing investigation into missing files. Additionally, an overseas travel ban on a pastor was temporarily lifted.

• Corruption in March and May: In Sri Lanka, former health officials were involved in a fake immunoglobulin procurement scheme. The former Governor of the Central Bank is under investigation for improper financial transactions. Police and Excise Department officials have been implicated in bribery and misuse of power. A former Finance Minister is implicated in a major Treasury bond scam. The Bar Association of Sri Lanka faces allegations of fund misappropriation. Financial fraud surfaced in the business and sports sectors with a high-profile arrest connected to the Lanka Premier League. Additionally, there are issues related to the outsourcing of visa processing at a major airport and alleged misuse of state resources ahead of an election.

• Defamation Cases in April: A former President was temporarily prohibited from serving as chairman of a major political party due to a defamation case. A prominent religious figure’s bail application was denied following an imprisonment sentence.

• Disaster in May: Heavy rains in Sri Lanka caused extensive flooding and landslides, affecting over 67,865 people across thirteen districts and leading to power outages for nearly half a million consumers. The severe weather resulted in the destruction of the Walasmulla Base Hospital’s Emergency Treatment Unit due to a lightning strike and contributed to the deaths of seven wild elephants.

• Legal Actions in March: The Maligakanda Magistrate’s Court called for the former President to provide a statement regarding his claims about the 2019 Easter Sunday attacks. The Supreme Court found a cabinet decision to grant him a residence illegal. A former Health Minister and a police sergeant were sentenced for corruption and bribery. A figure associated with the Bodu Bala Sena was sentenced for making hate speech against Islam.

• Purge/Replace in March: Several key members resigned from the Committee on Public Enterprises (COPE) in protest against the appointment of a new chairman. The Speaker of the parliament withstood a no-confidence motion, retaining his position by a majority vote. The Sri Lanka Freedom Party removed several senior members from pivotal positions. The police force underwent a sweeping overhaul, involving a substantial number of high-ranking officers, to address reported connections with criminal activities. A parliamentarian faced suspension over allegations of attempting to engage in illicit smuggling.

• Raids in April: Police raided the headquarters of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) following allegations of important documents being removed, leading to the building being sealed off for investigations. In the Navinna area of Maharagama, police seized an 8-kilogram heroin stash.

• Lethal Violence in March and April: There were 30 shooting incidents within the first two and a half months of 2024, resulting in 21 deaths and 14 injuries due to organized crime and personal disputes. The Colombo High Court sentenced two former police officers to death for the custodial death of a suspect in 2005.

• Non-lethal Violence in March: During a police raid in the Ganemulla area, an exchange of gunfire between a suspect and Police Special Task Force personnel resulted in injuries to both parties, with the suspect later dying in the hospital.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.