Demand Analysis for LTCI services

This analysis uses CHARLS data to understand at high level, what is the demand from pilot programs in 15 cities.

Eligiblity

*Important notes: please notice that eligibility turns out to be very difficult to assess, in this analysis, I tried to replicate the key logic mentioned in World Bank. Understanding China’s Long-Term Care Insurance Pilots: What Is Going On? Do They Work? And Where To Go Next?. Worldbank.org, 5-6.

Given there is no Barthel index in the source data, I manually constructed Barthel scores based on the questionaire with some adjustments to scale back to 100. And define eligibility as when Barthel index < 60 *

term estimate std.error statistic p.value
(Intercept) 98.4868906 2.0113543 48.965461 0.0000000
Communist 0.3156360 0.1124620 2.806600 0.0050117
Self-Reported_Health_Status 0.1814742 0.0268508 6.758627 0.0000000
Hearing_Problem -0.1505410 0.0459646 -3.275147 0.0010579
Year_Had_Brain_Damage/Mental_Retardation -0.0003577 0.0000913 -3.918806 0.0000893
Year_Had_Speech_Impediment -0.0017013 0.0002030 -8.381640 0.0000000
Had_Physical_Disabilities 0.0224317 0.0097914 2.290957 0.0219765
Had_Vision_Problem 0.0191829 0.0075716 2.533545 0.0112992
Diagnosed_with_Stroke_by_a_Doctor 0.3808804 0.0890846 4.275493 0.0000192
Diagnosed_with_Emotional_Problems_by_a_Doctor -0.2517489 0.1227453 -2.050986 0.0402816
Diagnosed_with_Memory-Related_Disease_by_a_Doctor 0.5019867 0.1072433 4.680821 0.0000029
Diagnosed_with_Asthma_by_a_Doctor 0.2101250 0.0831583 2.526808 0.0115182
Difficulty_with_Running_or_Jogging_about_1Km 0.5882332 0.0370148 15.891831 0.0000000
Difficulty_with_Walking_1Km 1.3098259 0.0596633 21.953618 0.0000000
Difficulty_with_Walking_100_Metres -4.4990578 0.0696592 -64.586660 0.0000000
Difficulty_with_Getting_up_from_a_Chair -0.5891441 0.0660097 -8.925112 0.0000000
Difficulty_with_Climbing_Several_Flights_of_Stairs_Without_Resting -2.6537543 0.0410174 -64.698262 0.0000000
Difficulty_with_Reaching_or_Extending_Your_arms -0.4018897 0.0448058 -8.969586 0.0000000
Difficulty_with_Lifting_or_Carrying_Weights_over_10_Jin -0.0901620 0.0427232 -2.110378 0.0348384
Difficulty_with_Picking_up_a_Small_Coin -0.9991588 0.0652338 -15.316591 0.0000000
Difficulty_with_Dressing -1.1693335 0.1131695 -10.332582 0.0000000
Difficulty_with_Bathing_or_Showering -1.8428786 0.0878036 -20.988638 0.0000000
Difficulty_with_Eating 4.1423759 0.1323667 31.294703 0.0000000
Difficulty_with_Getting_into_or_out_of_Bed -1.1371717 0.1212099 -9.381836 0.0000000
Difficulty_with_Using_the_Toilet -2.6645538 0.0863186 -30.868832 0.0000000
Difficulty_with_Controlling_Urination_and_Defecation -3.1981861 0.0960320 -33.303322 0.0000000
Difficulty_with_Household_Chores -0.7970007 0.0681588 -11.693298 0.0000000
Difficulty_with_Preparing_Hot_Meals -0.5606395 0.0668391 -8.387894 0.0000000
Difficulty_with_Taking_Medications -1.6391866 0.0775457 -21.138318 0.0000000
Difficulty_with_Managing_Money -0.2760811 0.0492045 -5.610888 0.0000000
Can't_Do_Household_Work_Because_of_Disability_or_Health 0.1450710 0.0689901 2.102779 0.0354978
is_eligible_ltci -21.2861597 0.2232443 -95.349160 0.0000000
Urban_and_Rural_Resident_Medical_Insurance 0.3148449 0.1559927 2.018331 0.0435704
Long-term_Care_Insurance -0.1988009 0.0970533 -2.048368 0.0405372
A_First_or_a_Follow-up_Visit -0.3293265 0.1634743 -2.014547 0.0439658
Total_Cost_of_This_Visit -0.7285712 0.3527512 -2.065397 0.0388986
Received_Inpatient_Care 2.0842065 0.9731415 2.141730 0.0322275
Total_Cost 0.0000088 0.0000042 2.099890 0.0357512
Self-paid_Part -0.0000174 0.0000065 -2.658516 0.0078550
Reason_of_Hospitalized 0.3471312 0.1422300 2.440632 0.0146704
Receive_Participate_Government_Institutions_Firm_Pension 3.1078676 1.3392747 2.320560 0.0203208

Overall, eligibility for LTCI based on Barthel index is very a small pct of sample: NA

Eligiblity breakdowns

LTCI enrollments

Notice overall, 19.5700444 % is pension participant (any type of pension)

Insurance plan breakdown

Unmet needs

Now we look at people who are eligible for LTCI but not enrolled in them

This could be distorted by how eligibility is defined, but overall only 1.3% of people who is eligible for LTCI enrolled in the program.