Models

# A tibble: 10 × 1
   biden
   <dbl>
 1     0
 2     1
 3     1
 4     0
 5     0
 6     1
 7     0
 8     1
 9     0
10     1

 Family: bernoulli 
  Links: mu = logit 
Formula: biden ~ 1 
   Data: poll_data (Number of observations: 1559) 
  Draws: 4 chains, each with iter = 2000; warmup = 1000; thin = 1;
         total post-warmup draws = 4000

Regression Coefficients:
          Estimate Est.Error l-95% CI u-95% CI Rhat Bulk_ESS Tail_ESS
Intercept    -0.32      0.05    -0.43    -0.22 1.00     1356     1699

Draws were sampled using sampling(NUTS). For each parameter, Bulk_ESS
and Tail_ESS are effective sample size measures, and Rhat is the potential
scale reduction factor on split chains (at convergence, Rhat = 1).

\[ biden_i \sim Bernoulli(\rho) \]

Using data from a YouGov poll of 1,559 US adult citizens, conducted March 10 - 12, 2024, we seek to understand what proportion of voters will support Biden in the 2024 election. Biden’s popularity might change significantly over the course of the election campaign. In the poll, Biden’s support was much less than 50%. We estimate that Biden’s percentage of the vote in Election Day will be about 42%, plus or minus 2.5%.