Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Author

Published

July 18, 2024

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Honduras, Ecuador, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, South Africa. We are forecasting major events for Honduras.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Honduras

For Honduras, our data includes coverage through April 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship in March: The expulsion of journalists from the National Congress by its president during a discussion on national security matters, including a border treaty with Nicaragua, was criticized as a major infringement on press freedom and democracy. Additionally, the closure of civil organizations not aligned with government policies was reported.

  • Corruption in February and March: Former President Juan Orlando Hernández’s trial in New York highlighted extensive corruption within the country’s political sphere, involving accusations of drug trafficking and receiving bribes from drug cartels. This trial also implicated other high-profile figures in similar corrupt activities. Concurrently, the National Anti-Corruption Council criticized slow investigations into local incidents of obstructing justice, and arrests of individuals involved in money laundering operations indicated the international dimensions of organized crime affecting the nation. The National Anti-Corruption Council reported the dire conditions of public hospitals as a direct result of corrupt practices, alongside investigations into officials for various acts of malpractice, including the irregular allocation of public land and tax fraud.

  • Disaster in March: Forest fires, notably in La Tigra National Park, destroyed significant forest areas. Concurrently, a significant dengue outbreak, with over 807 confirmed cases, stresses the healthcare system. Additionally, a severe heatwave prompted an increase in heat-related illnesses.

  • Legal Actions in February and March: The judiciary in Honduras took action against former officials and deputies for alleged corruption and drug trafficking. Significant judicial actions were taken in connection to the trial of former President Juan Orlando Hernández. Honduran authorities responded by securing the final action of 131 assets linked to Hernández and his family, accused of being of illicit origin. Concurrently, the Public Prosecutor’s Office initiated investigations into potential criminal activities by various political figures mentioned during Hernández’s trial, indicating the trial’s wide-reaching implications on the country’s political environment.

  • Protests in April: Merchants in Choluteca staged a road blockade in response to the proposed construction of the Great Terminal of the Pacific, fearing for their livelihoods due to potential decreased traffic. Renal patients also took to blocking the CA-5 Highway demanding improved hemodialysis treatment and legislation support, indicating the healthcare challenges within the country. Additionally, protests emerged over environmental and resource issues, including opposition to solar panel installations in San Lorenzo over concerns of insufficient consultation and potential environmental impact, and demonstrations in Tegucigalpa and other areas against inadequate drinking water supplies.

  • Purge/Replace in April: Salvador Nasralla’s resignation as the presidential nominee was accepted, indicating a major political transition. Over 3,000 National Police officers were fired due to alleged criminal activities. On the diplomatic front, Honduras withdrew its ambassador to Israel, marking a stance on international peace and security. Lastly, several high-level officials, including the director of a major hospital, resigned to pursue political careers, spurred by a call from the president for a transparent electoral process.

  • Raids in April: The Armed Forces of Honduras and Naval Force confiscated 2,760 packages of alleged drugs in La Mosquitia, while National Operation IV resulted in the detention of 387 individuals and the seizure of cash and documents. Additionally, law enforcement agencies dismantled a narco-laboratory operated by gang 18 in Choloma and disrupted cocaine trafficking routes. Efforts also included dismantling a network of surveillance cameras used by criminal groups in Tegucigalpa, indicating a broad and targeted approach to combat crime in the country.

Forecasting

Our standard forecasting models are predicting a jump in reporting on Civic Space Index in Q2 2024.

Ecuador

For Ecuador, our data includes coverage through April 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in March: In the Galapagos Islands, non-governmental organizations have been vocal in encouraging the government to utilize the additional funds generated from the increased tourist entry fees for the welfare of the local populace and the preservation of the islands’ distinctive biodiversity. The Galapagos Islands Governing Council, responding to these appeals, opted to augment the entry costs for overseas visitors in an effort to harmonize tourism with the imperative of environmental conservation and community benefits.

  • Corruption in April: The trial against Carlos Pólit Faggioni in the United States has underscored international ramifications of corruption linked to the Brazilian construction firm Odebrecht, including significant cases like the one involving former Vice-President Jorge Glas. Furthermore, the Metastasis and Blanqueo JR cases illustrate the depth of corruption, affecting the judiciary, law enforcement, public health during the COVID-19 pandemic, and financial sectors through networks of criminal activities.

  • Defamation Cases in February: A significant defamation case emerged involving a businessman and sports leader who announced intentions to sue a journalist following allegations tying the businessman to the Albanian mafia.

  • Disaster in February: Torrential rains across the coastal areas resulted in fatalities, injuries, and significant displacement, with over 22,700 residents affected and floods caused by 35 overflowing rivers. Simultaneously, Ecuador’s winter season has witnessed 504 dangerous events, notably floods, affecting all 23 provinces and leading to fatalities, injuries, and impacts on hundreds of individuals since late January. Furthermore, an outbreak of dengue fever has been reported, with thousands of cases and several deaths, prompting nationwide fumigation efforts. Additionally, intense rains in Manabí province caused landslides and floods, contributing to the loss of life and disruptions.

  • Legal Actions in March and April: The “Metastasis” and “Purga” cases involved high-profile figures, including former judges, assembly members, and other officials, leading to numerous arrests, pre-trial detentions, and a broader investigation into how organized crime has influenced judicial and political structures within the country. Other cases involving the SEK International College in Guayaquil and the sentencing of individuals for the murder of a local mayor. The country filed a lawsuit against Mexico before the International Court of Justice for violating asylum rules by granting refuge to Jorge Glas, its former vice president, amid controversies including unauthorized police entry into the Mexican embassy in Quito.

  • Legal Changes in February: The National Assembly approved the Organic Law for the Strengthening of Tourism Activities and the Promotion of Employment, introducing tax incentives and regulatory changes to bolster the tourism sector and employment. Additionally, the Constitutional Court’s approval of euthanasia decriminalization marks a progressive shift in the country’s approach to end-of-life care. Further legislative actions included the passage of the Reformatory Law for the Elimination of Violence and Harassment in all Forms of Work, aiming to create a safer work environment, and the repeal of the Code of Ethics for Admission of Officials to the Executive Function, altering the ethical guidelines for government officials. Moreover, Ecuador ratified a trade agreement with China, striving to enhance bilateral trade.

  • Security Mobilization in March and April: From January 9 to March 29, 2024, the country experienced a significant scale of law enforcement and military mobilization under the Phoenix plan, resulting in 219,445 operations and 16,933 detentions. Additionally, a specialized unit, the Forza Investigativa Contra la Extorsion (FICE), was created to tackle the uptick in extortion crimes. Further actions included the militarization of Puerto López in response to a kidnapping incident, comprehensive interventions in correctional facilities in Guayaquil and Sucre, and the strategic deployment of security officers in preparation for Holy Week 2024. More than 96,000 security personnel were mobilized for a popular referendum. Additionally, the government declared a state of emergency due to “serious internal shock and public calamity,” extending the presence of the National Police and Armed Forces across various infrastructural sectors for 60 days. Furthermore, targeted law enforcement activities, such as the raid in Manta, resulted in arrests and the seizure of weapons.

  • Protests in March: The Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities declared permanent territorial assemblies and contemplated a national uprising against mining projects. Concurrently, the Guayaillac Regional Prison was rocked by riots, wherein detainees clashed with the military, resulting in the death of three inmates. Additionally, transporters protested against new regulatory policies requiring a Technical Vehicle Review for public and commercial vehicles. Moreover, women across cities like Quito and Guayaquil rallied for International Women’s Day to push for a more equitable society and to protest against gender-based violence.

  • Purge/Replace in April: Ecuador faced a significant energy crisis, prompting President Daniel Noboa to request the resignation of the Minister of Energy, Andrea Arrobo, and initiate investigations into the electrical companies for alleged sabotage. Additionally, the former mayor of Guayaquil, Cynthia Viteri, along with other municipal officials, has been barred from holding public office by the Comptroller General of the State. Political shifts within the country are further evidenced by the resignation of several Assemblymen from the Citizen Revolution political movement and a substantial Cabinet reshuffle announced by President Noboa to address the crises and improve governance.

  • Raids in March and April: Operations included the “Purga” case, targeting alleged criminal undertakings within the National Court through 43 raids and 25 vehicle searches. Separately, significant drug seizures occurred, with police intercepting 842 kilos of cocaine in Puebloviejo, Los Ríos, and another two tons near the Daule River in Petrillo, Guayas. Additionally, efforts to purge contraband from the nation’s prison system were evident in multiple raids across facilities, where weapons, drugs, and unauthorized items were confiscated. A diplomatic conflict arose when Ecuadorian police raided the Mexican Embassy in Quito, leading to international condemnation over the violation of the Vienna Convention. Concurrently, Ecuador launched major anti-crime initiatives, including Operation Jaguar and raids across multiple provinces to combat organized crime, drug trafficking, and corruption within its judiciary.

  • Non-lethal Violence in April: An ambush on policemen by a criminal organization occurred in Guayaquil.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Kenya

For Kenya, our data includes coverage through April 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in March: Conservationists united against the construction of a road through the Aberdare National Park. The concern over unethical practices and discrimination by foreign digital companies in Kenya has sparked a call for inquiry, emphasizing the safeguarding of workers’ rights in the gig economy. Additionally, a massive assembly of high school students rallied against alcohol and drug abuse. Legal activism was also seen in the effort to ban child labor.

  • Censorship in March: The government directed that all state agencies must use the national broadcaster, KBC, for their TV and radio advertisements. Additionally, restrictions were placed on government officials’ use of the social media platform TikTok to protect sensitive data.

  • Corruption in February: A Nairobi-based televangelist was charged with defrauding members of the public of over Sh1 billion, under the pretense of investing in real estate and money markets. Meanwhile, the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC) is actively investigating the misappropriation of Sh18 billion by the Nairobi City County government, alongside other high-profile cases, including an unauthorized withdrawal of Sh6. 3 billion by National Treasury officials and a Sh151 million mineral fraud by a businessman. Additionally, a county deputy speaker was arrested for the alleged embezzlement of funds intended for an official trip.

  • Disaster in April: Devastating floods led to at least 169 deaths, with additional fatalities resulting from mudslides and a dam burst in Mai Mahiu. The natural disasters displaced over 10,000 households, destroyed arable land, and led to significant livestock loss across 23 counties. Furthermore, the country mourned the loss of the Chief of Defence Forces and nine others in a military helicopter crash, and a boat tragedy on Lake Baringo resulted in seven deaths, spotlighting the perilous state of transportation safety during adverse weather conditions.

  • Legal Changes in March: President William Ruto signed into law the Affordable Housing Bill, which introduces a mandatory levy on income to fund affordable housing. Meanwhile, the High Court struck down sections of the Penal Code that criminalized subversion, enhancing the protection of freedom of expression. Additionally, regulations now allow private firms to distribute electricity, ending the state utilities’ monopoly and potentially increasing access to electricity. Controversially, the enforcement of an agricultural tax and plans to introduce a 16% VAT on essential items like bread and milk have sparked debates about the implications for the cost of living and the stability of Kenya’s agricultural sector.

  • Security Mobilization in March: The government launched multi-agency security operations to combat planned banditry and recover stolen livestock. Additionally, there were efforts to fight the illicit trade and consumption of narcotics and illicit alcohol in Wajir and Vihiga Counties, alongside the deployment of a special team to investigate violent incidents in Kisii County.

  • Protests in March and April: Nationwide, doctors led by the Kenya Medical Practitioners, Pharmacists, and Dentists Union initiated a strike over delayed postings, poor compensation, and demands for improved working conditions. Similarly, clinical officers announced their intentions to strike, citing unmet agreements by the government. Communities near Oloolua Forest and students at Rongo University also demonstrated against the illegal acquisition of land and contested students’ union election results, respectively. Meanwhile, political tensions in Bomet boiled over into physical confrontations amid a presidential visit. Junior Secondary School teachers in Narok County have threatened to boycott classes over employment concerns, while lesser-scale protests have emerged around urban development issues in Kileleshwa and agricultural concerns related to poultry imports under a proposed US-Kenya strategic agreement.

  • Raids in April: The Directorate of Criminal Investigations carried out a raid on the offices of Worthstart Africa over allegations of a con job involving job placements abroad. Meanwhile, the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission initiated investigations into former high-ranking officials for a corruption case involving billions of shillings. Operations led by the Pharmacy and Poisons Board and security agencies in Mombasa targeted illegal pharmaceutical activities and the illicit sale of drugs and alcohol.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Kyrgyzstan

For Kyrgyzstan, our data includes coverage through April 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Corruption in March and April: High-ranking officials were caught in a corrupt scheme with a Chinese airline, illicitly obtaining over $54 million. Additionally, the detention of high-level politician Rayimbek Matraimov and his brothers on charges of laundering criminal proceeds underlines the gravity and scale of corruption, encompassing judicial corruption where a judge was involved in extortion. Furthermore, instances of ghost employment within the Regional Water Management Authority and significant financial irregularities in the Talas district’s budget have been unearthed. A former leader of the Labour, Social Security and Migration Department in Issyk-Kul province was detained for misappropriating state funds. The Anti-Monopoly Service took action against the Bonetsky Laboratory for a breach of the Competition Act and the SNCB uncovered a corruption scheme in land registration in the Yysik-Atin district.

  • Disaster in March: A severe windstorm on March 28 damaged numerous educational facilities in Bishkek, causing injuries and extensive property damage. The country faced a significant public health challenge with over 6,000 reported measles cases since the start of the year, affecting predominantly children. Additionally, rising temperatures have increased the risk of avalanches in mountainous regions, posing further threats to communities.

  • Purge/Replace in April: President Sadyr Japarov dismissed multiple high-ranking officials, including Cabinet heads and deputy governors, marking a comprehensive reshuffle in the country’s administrative leadership. Additionally, the Ministry of Internal Affairs conducted extensive personnel changes aimed at enhancing law enforcement effectiveness, which included the rotation and dismissal of several department heads and deputies.The General Prosecutor’s Office took action against six prosecutors and the internal disciplining of 87 leaders within the Ministry of Internal Affairs for operational deficiencies.

  • Raids in April: Efforts to regulate the commercial sphere saw over 20,000 packs of cigarettes seized in a raid against unsanctioned trade. Additionally, massive searches at various nightclubs in Bishkek were conducted to curb drug use among the youth, alongside a separate initiative where 230 motorcycle drivers were fined for unregulated traffic.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

South Africa

For South Africa, our data includes coverage through April 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in March: Amnesty International called for the protection of activists from Abahlali baseMjondolo amidst allegations of harassment and killings, highlighting the severe struggles against corruption in local governance. National debates over the minimum hourly wage have brought attention to the perpetuation of apartheid-era labor disparities. Health and environmental activism has also been prominent, with the Treatment Action Campaign and TB Accountability Consortium demanding better government action on tuberculosis, and individual efforts like Sarah Magni’s river swimming initiative raising awareness on environmental degradation.

  • Censorship in March: The Johannesburg high court dealt with cases ranging from rejecting urgent bids to interdict the airing of a controversial documentary series to ordering the Department of Home Affairs to unblock an unfairly blocked ID. Another case saw a convicted sex offender attempting to prevent media reporting on his name ahead of a trial, touching on the balance between fair trial rights and the public’s right to information. Furthermore, Stellenbosch University was accused of practicing “apartheid-era style censorship” by initially cancelling a seminar on the healthcare crisis in Gaza, though it later reversed its decision.

  • Legal Changes in April: The cabinet approved the Final White Paper on Citizenship, Immigration, and Refugee Protection, signaling a major overhaul of the country’s migration system. Amendments to the Basic Education Laws Amendment (Bela) Bill will shift decision-making power regarding public school language policies to School Governing Bodies, promoting localized control. In Cape Town, measures are being proposed to combat organized crime affecting city projects by revising procurement processes. Additionally, the National Energy Regulator approved a significant electricity tariff increase for the state utility Eskom.

  • Security Mobilization in March: In Cape Town, authorities implemented measures including the deployment of over 30 rangers with additional technological support, such as drones donated by the Consulate General of the People’s Republic of China, to ensure safety in Table Mountain National Park. Similarly, an increased police presence targeted violent crimes and shootings in several communities, with more than 145 officers from specialized units being mobilized. The national strategy also extended to border security, with the deployment of 400 junior border guards to manage the expected surge in cross-border traffic during the Easter period. Moreover, the threat to public infrastructure led the KING Sabata Dalindyebo Local Municipality in the Eastern Cape to consider drones and CCTV to deter electricity infrastructure vandalism.

  • Protests in March: In Durban, a strike by the South African Municipal Workers Union led to serious disruptions in municipal services. Cape Town witnessed the LGBTQI+ community marching in their annual Pride parade, using the occasion to stand against the crackdown on LGBTQI+ rights. Ekurhuleni saw significant disruptions in public transport due to a strike concerning a dispute over a bus service contract. Protests outside the Vredenburg Magistrate’s Court in the Western Cape brought attention to community perceptions of injustice in a legal case. Meanwhile, in Soweto, residents protested for improved housing conditions, demonstrating through attempts to block major roads and causing damage.

  • Purge/Replace in March: The firing of former judges John Hlophe and Nkola Motata highlighted judicial accountability. The political scene was additionally stirred by allegations of substantial bribes against National Assembly Speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, leading to her special leave of absence, and notable figures such as the former Minister of Police Nathi Nhleko resigning from the ANC, alongside Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan announcing his departure from active politics.

  • Raids in March: The Johannesburg home of the National Assembly Speaker was raided by the Investigating Directorate amid allegations of accepting bribes during her time as defence minister. The South African Football Association’s offices also experienced a raid by a specialized crime investigation unit following accusations of fraud and theft. Moreover, efforts to combat illegal operations extended to raids against illegal mining in Ekurhuleni and the seizure of counterfeit goods in Rustenburg.

  • Lethal Violence in March:In KwaZulu-Natal, a violent confrontation between police and suspects connected to the murder of a family in Ulundi ended in the deaths of two suspects. Meanwhile, in Cape Town’s Imizamo Yethu, Hout Bay, a mass shooting resulted in the deaths of five men, with another five individuals injured. Additionally, in the Free State, an 11-year-old girl was the victim of a brutal axe murder, followed by the retaliatory killing of the suspect.

Forecasting

In our last report, our models predicted an increase in reporting Legal Actions in Q4 2023. Consisted with this prediction, we saw a spike in reporting on Legal Actions a few months late in Q1 2024.

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.