OpTic went from becoming champions at Major 3 to elimination in round 1 at major 4. The general sentiment is that Pred is mostly at fault. There is even speculation that he may be on the chopping block if OpTic perform poorly at Champs.

Let’s look at some figures.

Hardpoint

To preface, in the graph above (and those following) each dot represents a map. There does seem to be a slight shift in the average and median of Pred’s kills/10m and K/D. However, it doesn’t look much different than the shifts we see for Kenny and Shotzzy. We can observe the actual changes in the tables below. The differences are taken as Major 4 - Major 3, thus, a negative number implies a smaller value during Major 4 (and vice versa). The standard deviation is for the difference in means (from M3 to M4), and change in mean values highlighted in red are at least 2 standard deviations below 0.

Major 3 to Major 4
Change in Avg
Change in Median
Standard Deviation
Player Dmg/10m Kills/10m Hill/10m K/D Dmg/10m Kills/10m Hill/10m K/D Dmg/10m Kills/10m Hill/10m K/D
Dashy 74.02 0.25 4.28 0.00 99.10 -0.14 19.12 -0.01 214.185 1.461 10.888 0.128
Kenny -364.20 -2.70 -1.43 -0.20 -78.04 -2.26 -4.33 -0.18 226.125 1.465 8.780 0.088
Pred -193.91 -1.71 -7.90 -0.18 -115.86 -1.87 -9.33 -0.17 262.834 1.682 5.692 0.099
Shotzzy -219.31 -1.66 -22.45 -0.13 -31.14 -2.40 -27.95 -0.03 234.550 1.654 7.697 0.089

As far as Hardpoint is concerned, Pred’s production decreased about the same amount as Shotzzy as far as damage and kills per 10. Kenny and Pred both observed similar drops in average and median K/D from major 3 to major 4. It’s also worth noting that Dashy is the only player who improved or basically performed the same in every category. There does not seem to be any obvious evidence here that Pred was the biggest problem.

Control

Visually, there does not seem to be any damning evidence against Pred here either. In fact, it looks as though he performed about the same as (or better) than in major 3. However, this seems to be the case for all members of the team. A figure similar to the previous hardpoint table is shown below.

Major 3 to Major 4
Change in Avg
Change in Median
Standard Deviation
Player Dmg/10m Kills/10m K/Dm Dmg/10m Kills/10m K/D Dmg/10m Kills/10m K/D
Dashy 189.65 2.02 0.02 84.02 2.52 -0.01 257.175 1.689 0.144
Kenny 6.64 0.04 -0.07 -426.96 -1.68 -0.03 325.842 1.951 0.120
Pred 14.52 1.35 -0.03 301.72 2.47 0.03 306.386 2.327 0.213
Shotzzy 140.36 -0.24 -0.11 463.54 1.12 -0.07 300.427 1.481 0.145

The numbers confirm the visual inspection for the most part. Pred and Shotzzy both observed a large increase in their median damage per 10. Both Pred’s average and median kills per 10 also increased. Interestingly, Dashy’s performance improved (or stayed consistent) across the board, while Kenny observed a fairly large decrease in his median damage and kills per 10. Again, no obvious issues with Pred’s production here.

Search and Destroy

We arrive at probably the most damning evidence against Pred. It’s no secret that one of the big storylines was OpTic’s huge losing streak in S&D. Upon inspection of the visuals above, we see some decline in Dashy’s performance, but we seem to observe a dramatic shift in Pred’s performance. A table of the changes is below.

Major 3 to Major 4
Change in Avg
Change in Median
Standard Deviation
Player Dmg/Rd Kills/Rd FB Rate K/D Dmg/Rd Kills/Rd FB Rate K/D Dmg/Rd Kills/Rd FB Rate K/D
Dashy -15.58 -0.18 -0.04 -0.56 -8.78 -0.15 -0.10 -0.43 17.416 0.078 0.025 0.285
Kenny -12.67 0.03 0.02 -0.01 -15.43 -0.04 0.02 -0.06 17.125 0.084 0.046 0.136
Pred -45.25 -0.21 0.04 -0.50 -38.14 -0.19 0.06 -0.31 14.968 0.091 0.039 0.190
Shotzzy 15.15 0.07 -0.04 0.04 16.00 0.09 -0.01 0.13 13.515 0.079 0.043 0.166

The results are not pretty. Pred observed a decrease in average damage per round of almost 3 times that of Dashy. His decrease in median damage per round tells a similar story. Additionally, Pred and Dashy observed a decrease in average K/D of 0.5 and 0.56! Their median K/D’s also decreased 0.31 and 0.43 respectively. There was not much of a change in the first blood rates, however, it’s worth noting that Dashy’s median first blood rate decreased by 10%. Lastly, all of Pred’s decreases in averages (aside from first blood rate) are at least 2 standard deviations below 0. In other words, if he was performing at the same level as major 3, we would expect to see a string of performances this bad less than 5% of the time on average! Hopefully OpTic have addressed why this shift happened, or they will be in for a tough time at champs.

* Data obtained from https://www.breakingpoint.gg/.