Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Senegal, Uzbekistan, Macedonia, Liberia, Hungary, Georgia, Cambodia, Belarus, Bangladesh, Algeria, Albania. We are forecasting major events for Belarus, Bangladesh.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Albania

For Albania, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of February 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Censorship in May: Journalists have been experiencing an increased number of court indictments, which doubled in 2022, alongside persistent threats and pressures that compromise their safety and press liberties. Furthermore, the Special Court and the JCKKO have imposed bans on media, restricting them from publishing wiretap content and certain prosecution-related decisions until investigations are concluded.

• Corruption in March, April and May: The former director of the Albanian Road Authority and two businessmen were detained on charges of corruption and money laundering, involving the misconduct of public tenders and significant investment in real estate from illicit funds. Further, arrests spanned across different levels of office, from the mayor of Himara for creating false documents for personal gain, to high-ranking officials such as former Health Minister and Former Deputy Prime Minister on serious allegations of abuse of office, money laundering, and concealing property. Investigations by the specialized anti-corruption and organized crime office, SPAK, have exposed schemes ranging from massive fraud and money laundering operations to human trafficking and political misconduct. An operation uncovered a credit fraud scheme that led to the seizure of 10 million euros from financial subject managers under charges of money laundering, affecting tens of thousands of citizens. Additionally, a former Prime Minister and his son-in-law were placed under house arrest over corruption allegations. Other operations targeted criminal groups, resulting in the seizure of assets worth millions of euros and the arrest of numerous individuals for offences ranging from money laundering to narcotics trafficking.

• Defamation Cases in April: DP deputy Ervin Salianji was sentenced for fraud and slander against a former minister. The Prime Minister and the Secretary-General of the Council of Ministers both took issue with Italian media, RAI3, over a report that criticized an immigration deal between Italy and Albania, accusing the outlet of slander and highlighting a tense cross-border media controversy. Meanwhile, Tirana’s Mayor and the former Foreign Minister became subjects of investigations and political scrutiny, respectively.

• Legal Actions in March, April and May: The sentencing of Himara’s mayor for election corruption, coupled with the ongoing investigations into both a historic protest leading to fatalities and allegations of abuse of office against a former health minister, reflect efforts to address issues of high public concern. There has also been the crackdown on high-profile criminals involved in narcotics trafficking and efforts to trace unexplained wealth among public officials. The Special Court of Appeals for Corruption and Organised Crime sentenced individuals involved in murders in Elbasan. Simultaneously, a large-scale operation by the Special Prosecutor (SPAK) successfully targeted seven criminal groups, leading to multiple arrests and indictments. Additionally, an Italian businessman has been extradited to Albania, where he faces a prison sentence.

• Security Mobilization in May: Major SPAK-led nationwide raids resulted in the arrest of about 50 wanted individuals, marking a notable mobilization of security forces aimed at targeting criminals involved in severe offenses, including murder and planning assassinations. There have been collaborative efforts with Italian police to enhance summer season public and naval safety, and intensive search operations for wanted criminals. Additionally, Army forces have been deployed in humanitarian missions and there have been proactive measures to ensure public order during public gatherings.

• Protests in April: In front of Tirana’s City Hall, opposition-organized protests demanded the resignation of Mayor Erion Veliaj, citing corruption and challenging urban redevelopment plans. These demonstrations experienced moments of violence, including Molotov cocktails being thrown at the municipality building. Meanwhile, separate protests called for the release of former Prime Minister Sali Berisha from house arrest, accusing the current administration of political targeting.

• Purge/Replace in April: The Special Appeals College’s dismissal of Berat’s prosecutor, Tasim Pucci, along with the firing of Durres prosecutor, Ilir Hoxha, for reasons related to corruption and financial discrepancies, showcases the ongoing judicial reforms aimed at enhancing accountability. Andrew Braimlari has resigned from the Freedom Party and Monica Kryemadhi and her associates have been expelled.

• Non-lethal Violence in April and May: The bombing of Judge Tony Sterkaj’s residence in Shkodra sparked widespread condemnation. Meanwhile, a violent attack involving the husband of the Entrepreneurship Minister and a high-level agency director over job-related conflicts has attracted considerable attention. Additionally, escalating protests in Tirana, where demonstrators clashed with police and targeted the city’s mayor’s office with Molotov cocktails, have highlighted a severe level of public dissatisfaction. An attack on a prominent lawyer in connection with property disputes led to severe injuries and necessitated neurosurgery for the victim.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Belarus

Belarus’s results are password protected. Please email for access.

Georgia

For Georgia, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of February 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in April and May: There were student protests at the parliament against a proposed draft law named “On transparency of foreign influence,” with demonstrators voicing concerns over possible limitations on academic freedom and international cooperation. In a parallel development, students at Tbilisi State University initiated a petition to ban a lecturer accused of being unsupportive of academic or democratic principles. Furthermore, the “Women’s Movement” criticized major political parties for their stance on women’s participation in politics, notably their opposition to gender quotas. There has also been mobilization of the public and civil society groups against the proposed ‘foreign agents law,’ sparking widespread protests across the nation. Tens of thousands of people, supported by various NGOs and activists, have voiced their opposition to the legislation, citing concerns over its implications for transparency and foreign influence. Parallel to this, the UNDP initiated an environmental justice campaign aimed at engaging youth and communities in environmental conservation, with high school students actively participating in dolphin monitoring along the Black Sea coast.

• Censorship in March: There was a notable instance involving the obstruction of a clergy visit to former president Mikheil Saakashvili.

• Corruption in March: There have been bribery scheme with former emergency coordination and emergency care center managers and medical corporation representatives, along with the arrest of individuals for a fraudulent trading platform aimed at international victims. Additionally, high-profile embezzlement involving cryptocurrency and local government corruption further underline the ongoing issues with corruption at both the national and municipal levels.

• Legal Changes in March, April and May: The initiation of a homophobic bill and proposed constitutional changes by the Georgian Dream party to protect “family values” and minors sparked substantial debate. Concurrently, the adoption of a new Law on Personal Data Protection aligns Georgia more closely with European standards. Further political dynamics were illustrated when the Georgian Parliament overrode the President’s veto on Election Code amendments. Additionally, changes to the Election Code eliminating gender quotas have raised alarms about democratic backsliding and the representation of women in politics. The Parliament of Georgia passed the “Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence,” overcoming the President’s veto amid widespread protests and international criticism. The law, compared to similar legislation in Russia, has been criticized for potentially suppressing civil society and the independent media, with international entities like the Venice Commission, the Council of Europe, and EU officials expressing their concern regarding its impact on Georgia’s democratic values and European integration prospects.

• Security Mobilization in April: There has been large-scale law enforcement efforts to manage protests against the draft law “On transparency of foreign influence,” employing specialized squads and water jet vehicles, amidst critiques of excessive force and restrictions on peaceful assembly. The situation saw a temporary de-escalation with the withdrawal of security forces from Freedom Square, although tensions remained with continued protests and a visible law enforcement presence in several areas.

• Protests in April and May: A series of protests broke out in response to the controversial “Transparency of Foreign Influence” draft law, which critics argue could steer the country away from European integration and closer towards Russian influence. The protests, which attracted widespread attention both nationally and internationally, saw demonstrators clashing with riot police, particularly in Tbilisi but also expanding to other cities such as Kutaisi. The ruling party, Georgian Dream, organized a counter-rally defending the government’s stance on the proposed law. The government’s attempts to disperse these protests using tear gas and water cannons have led to widespread criticism for their heavy-handed approach.

• Non-lethal Violence in April and May: During a rally near the Georgian Parliament building, police used pepper spray against protestors, leading to several injuries, including those of protestors and a Ministry of Internal Affairs employee. A related incident saw police violence against protestors and representatives, causing injuries like a fractured rib to a member of parliament. Furthermore, law enforcement’s use of rubber bullets against rally participants, resulting in injuries, has raised questions about the proportionality of the police’s response to civil unrest.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Hungary

For Hungary, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of February 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in May: Environmental concerns led to significant legal action against Samsung’s plant in Göd, where environmental activists achieved a temporary halt on operations, emphasizing the enforcement of environmental laws. The political landscape in Hungary has been marked by controversies surrounding LGBTQ rights, with accusations being made against opposition figures about their intentions with regards to LGBTQ activism. Additionally, there has been a push from animal rights organizations advocating for a change in advertising laws to prevent misleading imagery related to animal slaughter, showing an increasing concern for ethical advertising and animal welfare. On another front, there has been a clash between pro-Tibetan and Chinese nationalists in Budapest. Lastly, a nationwide clean-up initiative showcased a strong community effort towards environmental maintenance, drawing hundreds of volunteers in a collective action towards a cleaner environment.

• Censorship in May: The National Election Committee identified an illegal use of public media by Duna Media Services Ltd. for political advertising, favoring the ruling party, while Meta faced criticism for deleting the Neokohn.hu Facebook page, reflecting concerns over online speech freedom without transparent justification. Additionally, in Csepel, the mayor was accused of suppressing content related to the Prime Minister in the local government paper, an action that could have influenced political perceptions. Furthermore, the Media Council took action against a radio program for content deemed racially insensitive, and the Budapest Election Committee fined a publisher for negative coverage of a mayoral candidate.

• Corruption in April: An investigation was initiated into the renovation of Budapest’s Chain Bridge, involving suspicions of bribery and the misuse of public funds amounting to HUF 1. 5 billion. Additionally, a prominent political figure is under investigation for allegedly accepting bribes to influence an IT acquisition decision. Furthermore, the former economic director of the Inner-Pest School District Center is suspected of manipulating procurement procedures for personal gain, leading to her custody. Another case revealed involved the issuance of false Covid certificates by a doctor and associates in Budapest, implicating them in numerous counts of bribery and abuse of immunity certificates.

• Defamation Cases in April: High-profile cases include Laszlo Toroczkai suing Ákos Hadházy over derogatory comments. Similarly, legal actions against members of the parliament and public figures, like János Áder’s brother’s lawsuit for false pedophile case statements and Endre Hann’s defamation claim against a film manufacturer, reveal the contentious nature of public and political communication in Hungary. István Tarlós has also been contemplating defamation charges for alleged mismanagement criticisms.

• Legal Actions in March, April and May: The Metropolitan Court sentenced Tamás Portik to an additional 20 years of imprisonment for two murders in the 1990s. Concurrently, György Fürst, a former socialist deputy mayor, was convicted of misappropriating property related to capital parking fees, receiving a 5-year prison sentence along with a significant fine. Additionally, a corruption scandal in District III led to multiple arrests over fictitious contracts. Lastly, the European Union’s legal battle concerning the release of funds to Hungary reflects broader concerns regarding financial governance and adherence to rule of law, suggesting a complex relationship between Hungary and broader European fiscal policy and legal standards. The National Bureau of Investigation initiated an inquiry related to the renovation of the Chain Bridge, focusing on allegations of bribery and the misuse of public funds in connection with this major infrastructure project. This move comes amid concerns over the integrity of public expenditure and accountability in high-profile development undertakings within the country. The legal system has also recently been spotlighted through significant court cases stressing the gravity of criminal activities and the efforts to combat them. The trial and subsequent seven-year prison sentence of Tamás Gyárfás for aiding in the assassination of media contractor János Fenyő marked a high-profile case due to the individuals involved and the severity of the crime. Similarly, the legal proceedings against a Hungarian man charged with human trafficking and forced labor for exploiting homeless individuals without pay reinforced the country’s commitment to addressing severe exploitation crimes within its borders.

• Protests in April: Protests were organized by Péter Magyar, drawing hundreds of thousands of participants across various locations including Budapest. These protests, the most significant of which ended at Kossuth Square, focused on demands for political change, specifically the resignation of the Minister of Interior, Sándor Pintér, and a broader government departure, highlighting concerns over child protection failures and a call for a new political direction. Additionally, a demonstration led by András Pikó, András Jámbor, and Mayor Gergely Karácsony took place at Ludovika Square, protesting against the government’s plan to acquire ten properties in Józsefváros for a new teacher building for the National University of Public Service.

• Purge/Replace in April: In Hungary, the dismissal of Zoltán Tarr from a state technology company after his participation in a protest has raised significant concerns regarding the state of freedom of expression within the country. Other political party helpers were also terminated.

• Raids in May: The National Tax and Customs Office carried out an extensive raid against a criminal organization, leading to the seizure of over half a billion forints. In a separate operation, armed tax investigators executed a search at the home of a managing director involved in a financial investigation. Furthermore, police forces across multiple counties, including Somogy, Baranya, Zala, and Vas, successfully apprehended 12 drug dealers in a crackdown on drug trafficking. Additionally, customs officers at the Röszke border crossing thwarted an attempt to smuggle a large cache of arms, including nine machine guns and approximately 2,700 rounds of ammunition, into Hungary.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

North Macedonia

For North Macedonia, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of February 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Censorship in May: The economic director of the Toxicology Clinic in Skopje implemented a gag order on employees regarding media communication, which has sparked condemnation from the Association of Journalists of Macedonia.

• Corruption in April: The former head of the National Agency for European Educational Programmes and Mobility disclosed a fraud involving approximately 2.3 million euros, suggesting an attempt by ex-Prime Minister Zoran Zaev and others to cover up the misuse of EU funds designated for educational projects. Concurrently, the Public Prosecution has acted against 12 individuals for misappropriating 5.7 million euros from the Agency for Youth and Sports budget. Additionally, a scandal related to fake polls and manipulated documents has revealed efforts to skew public opinion and manipulate the electoral process, implicating state television among others. Furthermore, the arrest of 17 Penitentiary Police members on corruption charges points to corruption within the prison system.

• Defamation Cases in March: A court in Skopje ruled in favor of Defence Minister Slavjanka Petrovska in a defamation case against VMRO-DPMNE MP Dragan Kovacki. Additionally, tensions have risen ahead of an election, with the Democratic Union for Integration accusing opposition parties of slandering their candidate for President and the Prime Minister, alleging Russian involvement in a bid to undermine them.

• Legal Actions in April and May: The Academy of Judges and Public Prosecutors initiated a lawsuit against the State Commission for the Preventing Corruption due to the halting of the admission and training process for 130 candidates, alleging violations of electoral law. In another case, the Criminal Court delivered sentences in the kidnapping case of Samuel Kostadinovski, where defendants received prison terms. Additionally, the Supreme Court made a notable decision by accepting Aleksandar Gjorcevski’s appeal, leading to his transfer to house arrest, amid a highly sensitive case involving his daughter’s murder and subsequent allegations against him. The Appeals Court in Gostivar ordered a retrial for a case involving a deadly fire at the Tetovo Hospital. Concurrently, the judiciary is facing scrutiny for corruption, evidenced by the detention of Supreme Court Judge Nake Georgiev for bribery and the initiation of investigative proceedings against him and Council of Prosecutors member Ixhet Memeti. Additionally, the Administrative Court’s involvement with lawsuits filed by the European Front coalition against the State Election Commission points to ongoing political and legal disputes in the nation.

• Non-lethal Violence in April: An armed attack targeted the mayor of Aracinovo and his escort, leaving two people injured, though the mayor was unscathed.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Uzbekistan

For Uzbekistan, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of February 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in May: The government faced criticism from Human Rights Watch, which urged the abolition of the crime of “insulting the President via the Internet.” Internationally, Uzbekistan demonstrated solidarity by sending substantial humanitarian aid to Afghanistan following devastating floods. Additionally, activism within Uzbekistan saw efforts aimed at challenging restrictive legislation and promoting gender equality in the IT sector.

• Censorship in March: Journalists from Paradigma.uz encountered obstruction from the National Guard and a teacher while trying to cover a story about an accident involving schoolchildren. Additionally, there was unauthorized use of radio electronic devices in the Koshtepa district, leading to radio monitoring actions and the enforcement of regulations on the use of such devices.

• Security Mobilization in March: There was a notable mobilization of security forces during the Nowruz holiday, with 22,383 employees and military personnel deployed to ensure citizen safety. Additionally, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev conducted meetings with heads of law enforcement and security agencies focusing on the necessity of bolstering cooperation among law enforcement, civil entities, and businesses to preempt potential terrorist threats and emergencies, particularly in crowded spaces. Efforts to draft new legislation aimed at enhancing interaction for better public order safeguarding were also instigated. Furthermore, Uzbekistan, in collaboration with Kazakhstan, embarked on a project to triple the capacity of checkpoints along their border.

• Protests in April: Workers at the Enter Engineering company protested due to unpaid wages for the first three months of the year, highlighting issues of salary delays that gained substantial traction on social media. Additionally, the Ministry of Defense organized a series of military marches in Tashkent with the aim of instilling patriotism and pride among the nation’s youth.

• Non-lethal Violence in March: Foreign students from Uzbekistan were among those attacked by local students in India, with the incident occurring at a dormitory of Gujarat University. The violence was sparked by the foreign students’ act of praying.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Algeria

For Algeria, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in March: The activism revolving around the historical context of the French occupation in Algeria during the Algerian War has gained renewed focus, with demands from French human rights activists and NGOs for France to acknowledge its responsibility for past brutalities. Additionally, in Algeria, the removal of a street painting named after Major Donois de Saint-Marc, a symbol of French occupation brutality, by peace advocates signifies a moment of activism aimed at recognizing and rectifying historical injustices. Furthermore, there has been a marked increase in volunteerism during Ramadan, amid the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic and natural disasters.

• Censorship in March: The National Independent Authority for Audio-Visual Control took substantive actions against multiple private television channels for non-compliance with advertising regulations concerning both volume and duration. These measures were taken specifically to enforce existing laws that dictate how much advertising content can be aired during television programming. The authority’s ongoing efforts were apparent during the first days of Ramadan when several channels were registered continuing to exceed the legally allowed advertising limits.

• Purge/Replace in April: The Minister of Transport suspended the director of the Annaba airport due to negligence. Similarly, in the education sector, the Minister of Higher Education replaced the Director of the National Higher School of Press and Media Sciences to address leadership issues in media education. Moreover, the Minister of Communication fired the President General of the Republic Gazette for operational shortcomings, demonstrating a focus on improving media management and integrity.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Liberia

For Liberia, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in April: Advocacy and protests took various forms, from the “Can-Boy” Association’s opposition to the prohibition of selling combustible petroleum products in jars, indicative of economic activism among small-scale traders, to the public condemnation of female genital mutilation by healthcare professionals. EcoMedia Development Initiative raised concerns about the adverse impacts of garbage accumulation and burning in Monrovia on public health and the environment. Additionally, the Legislature Caucus of Nimba County has petitioned to enforce the ECOWAS Community Court of Justice’s judgement on a legal matter.

• Corruption in March: The Financial Intelligence Agency was embroiled in an internal corruption scandal involving US$6.2 million, leading to calls for the suspension of its Director General. The Liberia Anti-Corruption Commission indicted several former and current Margibi County Health Team officials and businessmen for misappropriating donor funds intended for healthcare services. Another case saw the closure of corruption charges by the LACC against former officials of the George Weah-led administration without specifying reasons for the closure. Additionally, leaked vouchers suggested the National Port Authority funneled funds to a former ruling party during an election campaign. Efforts by the Asset Recovery Team to combat corruption and recover misappropriated state resources included the seizure of vehicles from former high-ranking officials, though this action was challenged and halted by the Supreme Court.

• Legal Actions in March: Former officials from the administration were indicted on graft charges involving considerable sums, but the case was halted without further court action. The nation’s Supreme Court intervened to stop the Asset Recovery Taskforce from acting against a private company, signaling a legal victory for the business involved. Additionally, the Financial Intelligence Agency is now under scrutiny due to internal corruption allegations, prompting calls for decisive action. Moreover, there has been a criminal case involving an American missionary accused of attempted murder by his spouse.

• Legal Changes in April: The government has proposed to shift to a Value Added Tax (VAT) system to enhance tax compliance and boost revenue. The cancellation of the controversial Harmonization Policy, originally designed to address salary disparities among civil servants, marks a reversal of the previous administration’s fiscal strategy. Efforts to address impunity and strengthen the legal framework are evident in the push for establishing a War and Economic Crimes Court. Additionally, the aim to bolster the tourism sector through the creation of the Liberia National Tourism Authority and the contentious ban on the exportation of unprocessed rubber, which has drawn criticism from industry stakeholders, are key developments.

• Protests in March: In Grand Cape Mount County, violent protests against the Bea Mountain Mining Company over working conditions resulted in deaths and injuries. Similar unrest was evident as employees of the Forestry Development Authority and workers at the Cocopa Rubber Plantation voiced grievances over management practices and unpaid wages, respectively. Furthermore, protests by purported wives of military personnel over living conditions and salaries prompted a high-profile resignation.

• Purge/Replace in April: The Supreme Court ruled against the President for the unlawful removal of tenured positions. Concurrently, about 200 officers of the Executive Protection Service faced termination under accusations of loyalty to the previous administration, signaling a sweeping overhaul within the nation’s elite security body. In addition, the Liberia National Police announced layoffs tied to corruption and recruitment irregularities. Amid these developments, the President suspended a high-ranking official due to a corruption scandal. Further illustrating the complexities of these reforms, dismissed security agents petitioned for legislative intervention over their termination.

• Raids in April: Armed officers from the Liberia National Police conducted a significant raid on the headquarters of the Liberia Telecommunications Authority, subsequently leading to the suspension of all members of its Board. The action was prompted by accusations that employees were illicitly removing assets and documents from the building.

• Lethal Violence in March: Lethal violence was reported following heavy-handed police actions against protesters in Grand Cape Mount County and another incident in Caldwell, Montserrado County, where an individual was allegedly beaten to death by police and officials from the Liberia Electricity Corporation anti-power theft unit. The country also faced internal challenges related to mob violence against women. In response to violence linked with protests against the Bea Mountain Mining Company, lawmakers have decided to recall the army and police assigned to protect the company, acknowledging the excessive force used during the protests.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Senegal

For Senegal, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in March: In Senegal, there has been conflict between political opposition figures, including members of the Senegalese Democratic Party (Pds) and the government, particularly in regard to the presidential election process. Challenges to decrees by activists and political figures were met with rejection by the Supreme Court. Additionally, the detention of a presidential candidate led to international involvement, with the Human Rights Foundation appealing to the UN Working Group over concerns of political repression.

• Censorship in March: The National Audiovisual Regulatory Council’s warning to media outlets about their content during Ramadan and the police eviction of journalists from their offices during vote counting underscore significant governmental interference in press freedom. Moreover, the arrest and imprisonment of a Senegalese journalist for covering political unrest indicates a severe violation of press rights.

• Defamation Cases in May: Journalist Sheikh Yérim Seck and Xavier Pryen, director of Editions Harmattan, were found guilty of defaming a former captain in connection with a high-profile case, resulting in suspended imprisonment and a fine. Additionally, businessman Abdoulaye Sylla filed a defamation lawsuit against columnists from Walfadjri, and activist Bah Diakhaté faced charges over defamation and the spread of false news.

• Disaster in May: A Boeing aircraft chartered by Air Senegal ran off the runway at Blaise Diagne International Airport during take-off, injuring ten people and causing a temporary shutdown of the airport. Meanwhile, a tragic capsizing off Tunisia resulted in the deaths of seven Senegalese individuals. The country is also facing environmental challenges, with government actions being coordinated in response to heavy rains and the associated risks of flooding across multiple regions. Additionally, public health concerns have arisen due to reports of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in Bokidiawé.

• Legal Changes in March and April: A controversial General Amnesty Law aimed to amend acts of violence related to political demonstrations spanning from February 2021 to February 2024, despite criticism from various political entities and human rights organizations over concerns of granting impunity for serious crimes. President Macky Sall repealed Decree No. 2023-1407 concerning the dissolution of the political party “Senegal Patriots for Labour, Ethics and Fraternity (PASTEF)”. Concurrently, a legislative proposition was put forward by President Bassirou Diomaye Faye to overhaul the national electoral management system. The reform includes the establishment of an independent National Electoral Commission (CENI), replacing the existing National Autonomous Electoral Commission (CENA).

• Purge/Replace in April and May: The assumption of power by President Bassirou Diomaye Faye marked a period of governmental transformations, including the annulment of various decisions made by his predecessor and a significant reshuffling of many key positions such as the Prime Minister, Secretary General of the Government, and numerous cabinet roles. This reshuffle extended to the security and intelligence services with the dismissal of high-ranking officials including the High Commander of the Gendarmerie and the Delegate General of General Intelligence. Additionally, the dissolution of the Ministry of Women by the new government has raised concerns regarding gender representation and policy priorities within the country. Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko’s directive led to the resignation of several government members from their elective offices across municipalities, including Ziguinchor and Thiès Nord. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has initiated a broad recall of contractual agents from diplomatic missions abroad, representing a major restructuring of Senegal’s global diplomatic presence. Furthermore, the dismissal of Dr. Abdoulaye Niane from his role as Director General of the National Bank for Economic Development highlights a crucial change in the leadership of a key financial institution. Additionally, the political landscape saw shifts with MP Woré Sarr resigning from the Senegalese Democratic Party.

• Non-lethal Violence in March: Recent events have been marked by widespread condemnation following the attack on journalist Maimouna Ndour Faye, political violence, and heightened tensions ahead of the presidential elections. Violence between political factions, including the Diomaye President coalition and the presidential coalition Benno Book Yakaar, erupted in several locations, causing injuries, property damage, and intensifying the security response. Furthermore, incidents of politically motivated attacks were reported, including the assault on the home of a former minister.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Bangladesh

For Bangladesh, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of February 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Civic Activism in May: The high court’s engagement following a campaign against the cutting down of thousands of trees due to temperature rise highlighted the legal and social commitment to environmental preservation. Concurrently, over seven and a half million activists united to address the severe water crisis in the country, emphasizing the critical issue of water conservation.

• Censorship in April and May: The Bangladesh Bank recently imposed a prohibition on journalists’ entry to its premises, a move criticized by various press freedom groups who demand the reinstatement of transparency regarding the financial sector’s workings. Concurrently, the government announced the closure of 213 online news portals for alleged illegal activities and misinformation, an action defended by the Minister of Information and Public Broadcasting as necessary for maintaining journalistic integrity yet criticized for curbing press freedom and access to information. Additionally, a decision by the High Court to delay its ban on political organizations and activities at a major engineering university has emerged as another form of censorship, potentially limiting student political involvement and activism. In Bangladesh, the government faced accusations of engaging in widespread censorship against journalists, evidenced by restrictions such as banning access to Bangladesh Bank and imposing the Digital Security Act, which has been linked to accusations against 451 journalists.

• Corruption in May: Significant corruption events included the extensive investigation of a former police commander, Benjir Ahmed, and his family for corruption, which led to the confiscation of properties and freezing of bank accounts due to the implication of substantial wealth and ownership of land. Additionally, the United States imposed a ban on a former Bangladeshi military chief, general Aziz Ahmed, and his family for their involvement in corruption.

• Disaster in April and May: A severe storm ravaged multiple areas, leaving behind widespread destruction of homes, damage to crops, and injured over a hundred people. In the capital, Dhaka, a fire broke out at a children’s hospital, necessitating the response of several fire service units. The country also grappled with a heatwave that increased hospitalizations due to heatstroke. Additionally, a maritime accident involving a cargo ship collision led to environmental and economic concerns, with two crew members missing. Meanwhile, the surge in dengue cases across the nation pointed to a public health emergency needing immediate attention. Cyclone Remal wreaked havoc across the nation, leading to extensive floods, landslides, and widespread power outages, affecting millions and causing considerable damage to properties and agriculture. Additionally, the Sundarbans, a significant ecological treasure, suffered a major forest fire, resulting in the loss of wildlife and damage to the area.

• Security Mobilization in April: The government initiated an armed crackdown in the Chittagong Hill Tracts to address unrest, deploying a notable force that indicates concerns for civil liberties and public life. In Dhaka, the Eid Al Fitr celebrations were safeguarded with extensive security measures, including police and intelligence agencies, to prevent robbery and terrorism, covering an array of public spaces. Additionally, a joint operation involving police and possibly the army was launched in response to bank robberies and terrorist acts, showcasing a substantial impact on the nation’s security landscape. Meanwhile, the introduction of the “MRT Police” and the Armed Police Battalion (APN) to metro stations underlines a proactive approach towards urban security and the safeguarding of public transport infrastructure.

• Purge/Replace in May: In Bangladesh, a major restructuring occurred within the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), marked by the expulsion of a significant number of members, including high-profile figures, for defying party decisions about election participation. Additionally, the party expelled over 66 leaders for their involvement in unauthorized election activities. Moreover, local governance in Bangladesh saw disciplinary measures with the suspension of a council member from the Southern City of Corpón due to allegations of unlawful activities.

• Raids in March and April: A comprehensive crackdown led by the Dhaka Great Police Commissioner resulted in the detention of 46 individuals from 15 restaurants on charges related to fraud and safety violations, following the deaths of 46 people, indicating a significant level of enforcement against fraud and negligence in the hospitality sector. Additionally, the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) imposed fines totaling more than $35,000 on four illegal hospitals in Gazipur for operating without proper authorization. Efforts to regulate urban development and transportation were also evident, with a campaign against illegal constructions along the Dhaka-Chattogram highway to facilitate the Dhaka-Thakurgaon highway construction and raids on unauthorized battery-powered autorickshaws in the city, reflecting measures to improve urban management and public safety. In Dhaka, the authorities targeted illegal buildings, leading to penalties and the demolition of unauthorized constructions, which highlighted the government’s efforts to regulate city development and maintain order. Meanwhile, in Cox Bazar, a significant drug bust resulted in the seizure of 1 million yaba pills, although the traffickers managed to evade capture.

• Lethal Violence in April and May: There have been violent clashes often stemming from political conflicts and disputes over land. A significant internal incident was reported in Bangladesh where violent clashes erupted in the village of Baganchancheng Upazila, resulting in multiple injuries. Approximately half of those injured required hospitalization, and police had to step in to manage and control the situation.

• Non-lethal Violence in April and May: In Bangladesh, significant clashes occurred in multiple villages such as Pazeshtiwattpur and Mishvanilla, involving what is described as “the plains”. The confrontations led to widespread injuries, with a reported half a million people affected, including police officers. The violence not only resulted in numerous injuries but also caused substantial damage to village infrastructure and led to areas being occupied or deserted. This event stands out due to its large scale and the extensive geographical area it impacted. A clash between villagers and park officials in Gazipur resulted in 13 individuals being injured due to disputes over the breaking down of land for responsibilities.

Forecasting

Our standard forecasting models are predicting a jump in reporting on Protests in Q3 2024.

Cambodia

For Cambodia, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of February 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Legal Actions in May: Three state employees were brought to court by the Anti-Corruption Unit for involvement in an illicit employment scheme. Similarly, the Ministry of Interior initiated a probe into a high-ranking officer for bribery allegations. Meanwhile, Siem Reap witnessed legal actions against fraud and criminal behavior, with a company director and two deputies charged in a major fraud case, and 14 individuals were charged in relation to an alleged gang rape.

• Legal Changes in March: The Senate approved a draft law on waterway transport and amended the Marrakesh Agreement to boost the logistics sector’s competitiveness by potentially lowering production costs. Similarly, the Ministry of Interior introduced a new draft law tailored to address the rising concerns over information technology crimes. Additionally, Cambodia has tightened controls at international borders.

• Security Mobilization in March: There was an operation targeting illegal gambling at the former Paradise Island Casino. This operation was part of a larger initiative against local crimes, including human trafficking, cybercrime, and gambling, highlighted by the mobilization of the Preah Sihanouk provincial joint force. Additionally, during the first six months of its seventh mandate, Cambodian police forces addressed a substantial number of criminal offenses, leading to thousands of detentions.

Forecasting

In our last update, our standard models predicted a small increase in reporting on Protest in Q2 2024. We saw a small amount of protest activity in April, although these levels were lower than predicted.

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.