Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

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Published

July 4, 2024

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Armenia, Timor Leste, Pakistan, Nicaragua, Malawi, El Salvador, Colombia.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Armenia

For Armenia, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of May 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in March and May: In Yerevan, citizens organized a “Flashmob” to honor victims and call for remembrance. Concurrently, the introduction of an electronic prescription system sparked public criticism. There was a movement spearheaded by over 50 lecturers at a University to garner support from the Governor over real estate concerns and flood relief efforts in the Lori and Tavush provinces prompting a governmental disaster declaration and widespread volunteerism. Additionally, the “RESTART” movement mobilized against military-related legislation and a large-scale public demonstration for national unity and sovereignty. Meanwhile, continued protests against aggressive police actions and the detention of political prisoners highlighted ongoing tensions with law enforcement.

  • Censorship in April and May: The government banned specific foreign broadcasts and limited media access to public events, such as the 109th commemoration of the Armenian Genocide. Internal governmental actions, such as excluding certain parliamentarians from closed meetings, have raised concerns about democratic processes. A particularly alarming case involved a journalist being banned from the country without justification. The government suspended the Russian First Channel’s broadcast due to outstanding debts. Concurrently, the Union of Journalists of Armenia reports an uptick in pressures against journalists, including threats and obstructions from authorities and pro-government entities. Furthermore, the police blocked the head of the Armenian Apostolic Church from attending a memorial complex.

  • Corruption in March and April: The Prime Minister’s political party was found to have breached campaign financial laws. Additionally, the Anti-Corruption Committee’s operations led to the detention of officials from the Yerevan municipality’s Department of Architecture and Urban Development on accusations of bribery. Further inquiries are ongoing into the disappearance of military supplies and corruption within regional government offices, as well as legal issues surrounding government building practices. Gagic Karukian and Sedrak Arustamyan were involved in a bribery scheme aimed at influencing voting during the National Assembly elections on April 2, 2017. Another investigation focused on the “Civil Treaty” party, revealing attempts to circumvent financing rules through the use of illegal mechanisms for securing donations, some of which were made without the donors’ knowledge or were disproportionate to their incomes.

  • Disaster in May: Torrential rains in the northern provinces of Lori and Tavush caused devastating floods, leading to the death of at least four people and the significant destruction of critical infrastructure. The heavy rainfall also led the Debed and Agstev Rivers to exceed their banks, isolating 16 villages and towns and causing extensive damage.

  • Legal Actions in April: The legal system is currently processing a significant case involving the former President, alongside engaging in a criminal case that accuses officials of torture and abuse of authority. Additionally, the Armenian judiciary’s extension of pretrial detention for a journalist over charges related to misinformation and non-registration as a foreign agent reflects the country’s grappling with press freedom. The Anti-Corruption Court took actions against high-profile figures for voter bribery and other crimes.

  • Legal Changes in April: A significant development involves a constitutional change as a prerequisite for a comprehensive peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This adaptation in Armenia’s legal framework is poised to have a substantial impact on the nation’s international positioning and its ongoing dialogue with neighboring Azerbaijan.

  • Security Mobilization in April and May: The country saw extensive civil unrest with citizens setting up roadblocks at several key locations, prompting a widespread mobilization of security forces. This unrest was paralleled by the noteworthy departure of Russian troops from Armenian territory. Demonstrations in Yerevan calling for the prime minister’s resignation over a border demarcation deal with Azerbaijan resulted in arrests by police using force. Concurrently, extensive security measures were undertaken in various locations, including the village of Kiranz during demining work and at Freedom Square in anticipation of a public gathering.

  • Protests in April and May: Widespread demonstrations broke out in various regions, particularly in the Tavush province, against a border demarcation agreement with Azerbaijan. Participants in these protests, which began on April 19, have blocked roads and engaged in acts of civil disobedience. Additionally, over 100 villagers protested against high irrigation water prices, demanding meetings with government representatives to address their concerns. Lawyers protested against tax code amendments expected to increase their financial and bureaucratic burdens by removing public defenders from a simplified tax system. Additionally, employees of the ZAO “Erevan bus” company struck in reaction to the dismissal of key staff.

  • Raids in April and May: A notable raid conducted by UK investigators and the National Security Service targeted the Ministry of Health and a health center. Similar law enforcement activities were observed in Tavush and Babaratashen, where raids resulted in temporary detentions. This period also saw an escalation in governmental repression against supporters of the movement Arzah, with Armenian authorities conducting emergency checks and detaining mayors. Furthermore, the discovery of surveillance efforts, specifically a bugging program targeting a high-profile human rights defender, has raised serious concerns about privacy violations and governance within Armenia.

  • Non-lethal Violence in April and May: An individual was severely beaten by masked individuals after an altercation with a deputy. Meanwhile, Azerbaijani and Armenian forces exchanged gunfire along their border. Journalists covering a protest were assaulted, showing the risks media personnel face and the suppression of press freedom. Anti-government protests have seen violent clashes between police and civilians, with authorities detaining scores of people, including the involvement of Archbishop Bagrat Galstanian in leading some of these demonstrations. Human rights organizations, both local and international, have condemned the use of excessive force.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Timor Leste

Timor Leste is a new country. Our data includes coverage through the end of March 2024. Over the last three months, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Disaster in January and February: Timor-Leste experienced severe weather conditions due to heavy rain, resulting in floods and the subsequent damage to roads and buildings. This led to the evacuation of 129 individuals. There was a cholera outbreak, claiming lives in various municipalities such as Ainaro, Bobonaro, and Manatuto, with the capital, Díli, recording the highest number of cases.
  • Purge/Replace in January: The Prime Minister announced a future government reshuffle, warning that underperforming ministers would be replaced.

Forecasting

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Timor Leste.

Pakistan

For Pakistan, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of December 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in April: Health activists, including the Society for the Protection of the Rights of the Child (SPARC) and the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids, voiced their opposition to the introduction of 10-stick cigarette packs, fearing it would increase tobacco consumption among the youth and low-income populations. Meanwhile, the Islamabad High Court Bar Association called for an investigation into alleged threats and interference by spy agencies in judicial affairs, reflecting concerns over the independence of the judiciary. At the same time, activists from the Women Action Forum (WAF) rallied for the safe recovery of individuals targeted by social media campaigns. Additionally, the Shuhada Forum of Balochistan petitioned for the implementation of national security and legal reforms.

  • Censorship in April and May: The Pakistan Telecommunication Authority blocked over 1 million objectionable websites and social media accounts. Additionally, the government’s temporary ban on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) pointed to tight governmental reigns on digital platforms, a situation further complicated by court interventions to restore access. Moreover, an accountability court’s restrictions on Imran Khan and his wife from making statements against state institutions. The Islamabad and Lahore High Courts challenged the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority’s restrictions on court reporting. This stance was mirrored by the judiciary’s decisions against the Federal Board of Revenue and telecom companies, blocking actions that would impede communication and surveil personal conversations.

  • Security Mobilization in April: The federal government of Pakistan initiated a substantial operation against criminal elements in the riverine areas of Sindh, aiming to eradicate dacoity and improve public security. In addition, the Pakistan Army and civil armed forces were deployed across the country for the by-elections. Lahore and Rawalpindi police implemented extensive security measures for Hazrat Ali Day and the Pakistan-New Zealand T20 cricket series. Furthermore, Karachi’s security was notably increased in preparation for the visit of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.

  • Lethal Violence in April: Suspected Sunni Muslim militants escalated tensions by attacking Iran’s Revolutionary Guards headquarters in Sistan-Baluchestan. Passengers in Balochistan’s Noshki district were abducted and killed execution-style, spurring government promises to tackle terrorism more aggressively. Meanwhile, a suicide bombing targeted a vehicle carrying Chinese engineers and a Pakistani driver in Besham. Karachi experienced a marked increase in violence during Ramadan 2024, with numerous fatalities and injuries as a result of resistance to robberies.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Nicaragua

For Nicaragua, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship in March and April: The Ministry of the Interior revoked the legal status of 28 non-governmental organizations, impacting services provided to families and disabled children. A broader crackdown has manifested through the arrest of individuals such as a Youtuber, the blocking of accounts belonging to Radio María Nicaragua, the dissolution of numerous non-governmental organizations, the exile of journalists, and the closure of academic institutions like the Central American University.

  • Corruption in May: The regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo has been implicated in illegal property confiscations totaling at least USD 250 million. Additionally, Dante Mossi, a close associate of Ortega and former executive of the BCIE, is under investigation for “fraud, collusion, and corruption,” pointing to high-level financial misconduct. A report by the Observatory for Transparency and Anti-Corruption also revealed judicial corruption, including influence trafficking and the undermining of due process by the Ortega-Murillo regime.

  • Disaster in March and April: Devastating wildfires impacted several departments. Additionally, a miner died in a collapse in Bonanza.

  • Legal Changes in March: The Nicaraguan National Assembly took a series of legislative actions, including repealing restrictive measures on cultural expressions and pushing for enhanced control over telecommunications.

  • Security Mobilization in May: The National Police deployed extensive surveillance and patrol operations across various public spaces to ensure safety, while the Ministry of Health carried out significant anti-epidemic efforts, including home visits for larvicide application against mosquito-borne diseases. There was also a focus on healthcare security, with heightened measures implemented at hospital access points.

  • Protests in April: Thousands of Nicaraguans, including university students and members of the diaspora, marked the sixth anniversary of the April 2018 socio-political uprising against the dictatorship. The initial protests, which began as opposition to social security reforms, expanded into broader demands for political change, but were met with violent repression from the government. In response to these protests, Nicaragua’s vice-president organized “peace parades” and activities aimed at promoting a “National Day of Peace,” in an attempt to counteract the protests and reshape public perception of the 2018 unrest.

  • Purge/Replace in April: The government dismissed several mayors and a deputy mayor accused of corruption. Additionally, the government reallocated judicial functions to the Office of the Attorney General, undermining the independence of the judiciary.

  • Raids in April: The home of student leader Jasson Noel Salazar Rugama was raided, marking the continuing crackdown on political dissent. Additionally, in an operation termed “Wall of containment,” the National Police targeted organized crime and drug trafficking, resulting in the capture of Gema Esmeralda Sevilla Ortega in the city of New Segovia.

  • Lethal Violence in April: The body of a governmental opponent was discovered in a municipal garbage dump in Jinotepe.

Forecasting

In our October forecast, our models predicted an increase in reporting on Arrests in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. Consistent with this forecast, we saw a spike in reporting in December. However, we did not see a spike in reporting on Arrests in Q1 2024.

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Malawi

For Malawi, our data includes coverage through April 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in March and April: Over 20,000 unemployed teachers and approximately 4,000 youths sought to address employment challenges through petitions to the Parliament and the President. Meanwhile, there were calls for aid in Nkhotakota District by Save the Children, demands for better governance of the Constituency Development Fund by Civil Society Organisations, and community-driven environmental recovery efforts led by the Makazi Foundation in response to Cyclone Freddy damage. The Civil Society Education Coalition demanded a public inquiry into the sex-for-grades scandal at Mzuzu University. Consumer rights groups criticized price hikes in major sugar brands, urging actions to protect against market exploitation. Following a labor agreement with Israel, activists called for fair recruitment practices for Malawian workers. Meanwhile, pro-choice advocates in Mzimba North rallied traditional leaders to support legislative changes for women’s reproductive rights.

  • Censorship in March: The Lilongwe District Council intervened to prevent the Centre for Democracy and Economic Development Initiatives, along with other civil society organizations, from holding peaceful protests aimed at influencing the Department of Immigration’s policies on passport issuance and fees. Similarly, the Malawi Communications Regulatory Authority issued warnings to radio stations over their phone-in programs, threatening potential sanctions for spreading misinformation or hatred.

  • Corruption in April: The High Court of Malawi ordered the forfeiture of assets linked to the “Cashgate” scandal, involving a former Ministry of Finance official. Concurrently, the Vice President and other high-profile figures, including a former minister and a presidential aide, face allegations of corruption. Furthermore, investigations into the Electricity Generation Company and the National Oil Company reveal financial mismanagement and attempts to influence contract awards, pointing to widespread issues in public procurement processes.

  • Disaster in March: The devastations wrought by Cyclone Freddy continue to echo, leaving over 660,000 people without homes and threatening two million with hunger due to crop devastation. Flash floods in Nkhotakota District claimed six lives, displacing thousands and causing substantial property damage. Health challenges compounded these disasters as outbreaks of pink eye disease affected thousands across multiple districts, and a rubella outbreak emerged in Neno district, further stressing the national disaster response capabilities.

  • Legal Actions in April: The High Court in Lilongwe discharged a former Reserve Bank Governor and his deputy from charges of abuse of office regarding misreporting to the International Monetary Fund. Meanwhile, other court actions included the denial of an application to set aside a forfeiture order for a family residence linked to a fugitive former Ministry of Finance official, decisions on document disclosures in a Vice President’s corruption case and another involving alleged irregular recruitment within the Immigration and Homeland Security sectors, and the dismissal of an application to declare money laundering charges unconstitutional.

  • Legal Changes in February and March: A proposal to amend the constitution to set an age limit for presidential candidates was withdrawn before parliamentary discussion. President Chakwera’s rejection of the Political Parties Act Amendment based on constitutional grounds underscores efforts to ensure a check on political financing, while delays in the Judicial Service and Administration Bill and Constitutional Amendment Bill highlight ongoing challenges in enhancing judicial independence. Additionally, initiatives to amend the Local Government Act aim to strengthen enforcement of local by-laws, particularly those concerning environmental protection. Meanwhile, there were significant increase in minimum wages for both general and domestic workers. The passing of the Cannabis Regulation Act (Amendment) Bill allows for the regulated cultivation and use of cannabis, potentially boosting the agricultural and commercial sectors. Amendments proposed to the Presidential, Parliamentary, and Local Government Act are designed to make voter registration more accessible.

  • Raids in February: Armed police officers conducted a significant raid targeting the Parliament building and Kamuzu Mausoleum in Lilongwe. These actions appear to be politically motivated and aimed at important state symbols and political party activities. Additionally, there was an incident involving the confiscation of mobile phones and laptops from journalists at the Malawi Broadcasting Corporation, under suspicions of operating a fake MBC Facebook page.

  • Lethal Violence in April: 23 individuals, including both locals and forest guards, were found dead in Amalika Forest in the Thyolo District. Additionally, two watchmen were targeted and killed in separate incidents, indicating a worrying trend of violence against security personnel.

  • Non-lethal Violence in February and March: In Lilongwe, a violent attack on Democratic Progressive Party supporters by an unidentified group led to serious injuries and significant property damage. Similarly, Machinga was the scene of intense religious conflicts between Christians and Muslims, resulting in the destruction of religious property, and confrontations between forestry guards and charcoal burners, showcasing environmental conflicts. Furthermore, the community of Chikwawa experienced brutal gang violence.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

El Salvador

For El Salvador, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Legal Actions in April and May: A former MP and presidential candidate was sentenced to over 13 years in prison for illegal groups and electoral fraud, involving negotiations with gangs for electoral gains. Similarly, actions were taken against former Minister of Defense, David Munguía Payés, for diverting public funds, alongside a move to confiscate nine properties linked to the corruption case. Additionally, the Attorney General’s Office initiated a broad operation against 230 clicks of the MS gang across the country. There were also legal proceedings against former San Salvador Mayor Ernesto Muyshondt and associates for corruption charges. Former Secretary of Communications, David Rivas, is embroiled in a civil lawsuit over accusations of illicit enrichment. Meanwhile, Fabio Blademir Escobar Arias receive a substantial prison sentence for extortion and affiliation with illegal groups.

  • Legal Changes in April and May: The approval of a controversial constitutional reform now enables the Legislative Assembly to approve changes to the Constitution without the need for ratification by a subsequent legislature, raising issues about the balance of power. Additionally, the establishment of the National Council of Specialty of Medical Professions (CONADEM) and the reform of the Social Security Act, which excludes the Medical College from the Board of Directors of the Salvadoran Social Security Institute (ISSS), have sparked fears over the impacts on healthcare quality and governance. Additionally, reforms in education, the budget, and the organizational structure of the Legislative Assembly, including the draft law aiming to improve higher education standards and the incorporation of surplus funds into the state budget, reflect substantial shifts in the nation’s governance and policy focus.

  • Security Mobilization in March and May: A stringent clampdown on gang activities was implemented following two murders, leading to the deployment of 5,000 soldiers and 1,000 police officers in four districts in Chalatenango. Concurrently, the National Civil Protection System and the Directorate General of Civil Protection took measures to ensure public safety by deploying over 100,000 personnel at tourist sites and ahead of upcoming elections. A significant operation involved deploying 2,000 soldiers and 1,000 policemen in the Apopa municipality to install a security fence as part of the Territorial Control Plan. Concurrently, preventive patrols in Soyapango verified the legal status of residences, and extensive inspection operations targeted bars, discotheques, and other establishments nationwide to prevent criminal activities. Additionally, on International Labour Day, police checkpoints were established around San Salvador to maintain order during public gatherings.

  • Protests in May: Broad-based mobilizations have taken place, with trade unionists, human rights defenders, opposition parties, and various organizations voicing their concerns over human rights violations, the criminalization of labor unionization, constitutional reforms, and respect for labor and minority rights. Protests also extended to specific concerns, such as the delayed return of university buildings, demands for the release of a mayor arrested for environmental pollution, opposition to the continuation of Nayib Bukele’s presidency, and systemic issues in worker compensation highlighted by bus drivers suspending service.

  • Purge/Replace in April and May: The ARENA party has begun a cleansing process, removing two high-profile members, including an ex-presidential candidate and a former congressman, for allegations related to electoral fraud and damaging the party’s image. Similarly, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock experienced instability as Óscar Guardado resigned from his positions, marking the fifth change in ministry leadership within five years. There was a major overhaul in the judicial system, with the Supreme Court of Justice removing judges involved in high-profile cases. Furthermore, municipal leadership in La Paz Centro has experienced substantial changes with mayors being appointed and replaced amidst charges of environmental pollution. Additionally, there was a mass dismissal of 363 public employees in the San Salvador Centro municipality.

  • Lethal Violence in May: El Salvador faced a series of troubling incidents alongside a notable achievement in its battle against violent crime and systemic issues within its penal system. The report of 301 deaths in the country’s prisons since March 27, 2022, reflects a severe humanitarian crisis attributed to medical negligence and systemic failures. Additionally, the discovery of six bodies near a market in San Salvador underscores the ongoing violence and gang-related issues the nation is grappling with. However, amidst these challenges, El Salvador experienced a day without homicides on May 18, 2024, highlighting a significant, albeit temporary, victory in its efforts to combat violent crime and improve safety for its citizens.

Forecasting

In our last report, our models predicted an increase in reporting Lethal Violence in Q2 and Q3 2024. After a long period of decreasing reporting on lethal violence, we saw an increase in reporting on Lethal Violence for the first time since Q1 2021 in May 2024, although this increase was significantly smaller than expected.

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Colombia

Colombia’s results are password protected. Please email for access.