Introduction

Background

• Suicide is a critical global public health issue with 703,000 people commiting suicide annually worldwide (Global statistics on suicide).
• Male inmates before the 50th birthday are at a relatively higher risk of suicide than females.
• Southern Africa region has been experiencing relatively high suicide rates e.g., Lesotho (72.4 per 100,000).

Global Statistics

• Suicide rates vary globally and regionally, being highest in the Southern Africa region,Eastern Europe and part of Asia.

Methods

• In this study, Time series analysis was used to model and forecast suicide rates in Southern Africa region (Botswana (BWA),Lesotho (LSO),Namibia (NAM),South Africa (ZAF) and Eswatini (SWZ)).

• Objective: Identify temporal patterns and forecast future rates.

• WHO Data (2001-2019) from the Southern Africa region was analyzed.

Analysis

Stationarity assessment of Time series

The results below are from the differenced time series to ensure stationarity in first and second-order moments of the data.

KPSS test

At \(\alpha=0.05\) level of significance, results from the KPSS test indicates stationarity in the series p-value=0.1.

ACF plot of suicide rates

PACF plot of suicide rates

Auto Arima model

Findings

• ARIMA(0,1,0) model was selected.
• No significant autoregressive or moving average components were found.
• Results, however, indicate a random walk with drift.

Implications

Policy and intervention recommendations based on findings

• State actors : Ministry of public health need for increased survellaince/ monitoring and roll out of effective strategies for awareness creation and prevention of suicide among population at risk .

• Mainstream Media Role - Allocate more airtime,resources on enhancing Public awareness through mental health programmes.

• Need for collaboration and synergy in programming between Government and Non-state actors (e.g., NGOs) to maximize the impact of resources allocated for managing the problem.

• Research community: Need to explore impact of various pandemics eg COVID, macro and micro economic conditions on suicide rates.

References

1. World Health Organization (WHO). Preventing suicide: A global imperative. 2014.
2. Ministry of Health Kenya. Mental Health Policy 2015-2030.
3. https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/lifestyle/10-african-countries-with-the-highest-suicide-rate/vd6sept