Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

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Published

June 28, 2024

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Honduras, Ecuador, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, South Africa. We are forecasting major events for Honduras.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Honduras

For Honduras, our data includes coverage through April 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship in March: The expulsion of journalists from the National Congress by its president during a discussion on national security matters, including a border treaty with Nicaragua, was criticized as a major infringement on press freedom and democracy. Additionally, the closure of civil organizations not aligned with government policies was reported.

  • Corruption in February and March: Former President Juan Orlando Hernández’s trial in New York highlighted extensive corruption within the country’s political sphere, involving accusations of drug trafficking and receiving bribes from drug cartels. This trial also implicated other high-profile figures in similar corrupt activities. Concurrently, the National Anti-Corruption Council criticized slow investigations into local incidents of obstructing justice, and arrests of individuals involved in money laundering operations indicated the international dimensions of organized crime affecting the nation. The National Anti-Corruption Council reported the dire conditions of public hospitals as a direct result of corrupt practices, alongside investigations into officials for various acts of malpractice, including the irregular allocation of public land and tax fraud.

  • Disaster in March: Forest fires, notably in La Tigra National Park, destroyed significant forest areas. Concurrently, a significant dengue outbreak, with over 807 confirmed cases, stresses the healthcare system. Additionally, a severe heatwave prompted an increase in heat-related illnesses.

  • Legal Actions in February and March: The judiciary in Honduras took action against former officials and deputies for alleged corruption and drug trafficking. Significant judicial actions were taken in connection to the trial of former President Juan Orlando Hernández. Honduran authorities responded by securing the final action of 131 assets linked to Hernández and his family, accused of being of illicit origin. Concurrently, the Public Prosecutor’s Office initiated investigations into potential criminal activities by various political figures mentioned during Hernández’s trial, indicating the trial’s wide-reaching implications on the country’s political environment.

  • Protests in April: Merchants in Choluteca staged a road blockade in response to the proposed construction of the Great Terminal of the Pacific, fearing for their livelihoods due to potential decreased traffic. Renal patients also took to blocking the CA-5 Highway demanding improved hemodialysis treatment and legislation support, indicating the healthcare challenges within the country. Additionally, protests emerged over environmental and resource issues, including opposition to solar panel installations in San Lorenzo over concerns of insufficient consultation and potential environmental impact, and demonstrations in Tegucigalpa and other areas against inadequate drinking water supplies.

  • Purge/Replace in April: Salvador Nasralla’s resignation as the presidential nominee was accepted, indicating a major political transition. Over 3,000 National Police officers were fired due to alleged criminal activities. On the diplomatic front, Honduras withdrew its ambassador to Israel, marking a stance on international peace and security. Lastly, several high-level officials, including the director of a major hospital, resigned to pursue political careers, spurred by a call from the president for a transparent electoral process.

  • Raids in April: The Armed Forces of Honduras and Naval Force confiscated 2,760 packages of alleged drugs in La Mosquitia, while National Operation IV resulted in the detention of 387 individuals and the seizure of cash and documents. Additionally, law enforcement agencies dismantled a narco-laboratory operated by gang 18 in Choloma and disrupted cocaine trafficking routes. Efforts also included dismantling a network of surveillance cameras used by criminal groups in Tegucigalpa, indicating a broad and targeted approach to combat crime in the country.

Forecasting

Our standard forecasting models are predicting a jump in reporting on Civic Space Index in Q2 2024.

Ecuador

Ecuador’s results are password protected. Please email for access.

Kenya

For Kenya, our data includes coverage through April 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in March: Conservationists united against the construction of a road through the Aberdare National Park. The concern over unethical practices and discrimination by foreign digital companies in Kenya has sparked a call for inquiry, emphasizing the safeguarding of workers’ rights in the gig economy. Additionally, a massive assembly of high school students rallied against alcohol and drug abuse. Legal activism was also seen in the effort to ban child labor.

  • Censorship in March: The government directed that all state agencies must use the national broadcaster, KBC, for their TV and radio advertisements. Additionally, restrictions were placed on government officials’ use of the social media platform TikTok to protect sensitive data.

  • Corruption in February: A Nairobi-based televangelist was charged with defrauding members of the public of over Sh1 billion, under the pretense of investing in real estate and money markets. Meanwhile, the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC) is actively investigating the misappropriation of Sh18 billion by the Nairobi City County government, alongside other high-profile cases, including an unauthorized withdrawal of Sh6. 3 billion by National Treasury officials and a Sh151 million mineral fraud by a businessman. Additionally, a county deputy speaker was arrested for the alleged embezzlement of funds intended for an official trip.

  • Disaster in April: Devastating floods led to at least 169 deaths, with additional fatalities resulting from mudslides and a dam burst in Mai Mahiu. The natural disasters displaced over 10,000 households, destroyed arable land, and led to significant livestock loss across 23 counties. Furthermore, the country mourned the loss of the Chief of Defence Forces and nine others in a military helicopter crash, and a boat tragedy on Lake Baringo resulted in seven deaths, spotlighting the perilous state of transportation safety during adverse weather conditions.

  • Legal Changes in March: President William Ruto signed into law the Affordable Housing Bill, which introduces a mandatory levy on income to fund affordable housing. Meanwhile, the High Court struck down sections of the Penal Code that criminalized subversion, enhancing the protection of freedom of expression. Additionally, regulations now allow private firms to distribute electricity, ending the state utilities’ monopoly and potentially increasing access to electricity. Controversially, the enforcement of an agricultural tax and plans to introduce a 16% VAT on essential items like bread and milk have sparked debates about the implications for the cost of living and the stability of Kenya’s agricultural sector.

  • Security Mobilization in March: The government launched multi-agency security operations to combat planned banditry and recover stolen livestock. Additionally, there were efforts to fight the illicit trade and consumption of narcotics and illicit alcohol in Wajir and Vihiga Counties, alongside the deployment of a special team to investigate violent incidents in Kisii County.

  • Protests in March and April: Nationwide, doctors led by the Kenya Medical Practitioners, Pharmacists, and Dentists Union initiated a strike over delayed postings, poor compensation, and demands for improved working conditions. Similarly, clinical officers announced their intentions to strike, citing unmet agreements by the government. Communities near Oloolua Forest and students at Rongo University also demonstrated against the illegal acquisition of land and contested students’ union election results, respectively. Meanwhile, political tensions in Bomet boiled over into physical confrontations amid a presidential visit. Junior Secondary School teachers in Narok County have threatened to boycott classes over employment concerns, while lesser-scale protests have emerged around urban development issues in Kileleshwa and agricultural concerns related to poultry imports under a proposed US-Kenya strategic agreement.

  • Raids in April: The Directorate of Criminal Investigations carried out a raid on the offices of Worthstart Africa over allegations of a con job involving job placements abroad. Meanwhile, the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission initiated investigations into former high-ranking officials for a corruption case involving billions of shillings. Operations led by the Pharmacy and Poisons Board and security agencies in Mombasa targeted illegal pharmaceutical activities and the illicit sale of drugs and alcohol.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Kyrgyzstan

For Kyrgyzstan, our data includes coverage through April 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Corruption in March and April: High-ranking officials were caught in a corrupt scheme with a Chinese airline, illicitly obtaining over $54 million. Additionally, the detention of high-level politician Rayimbek Matraimov and his brothers on charges of laundering criminal proceeds underlines the gravity and scale of corruption, encompassing judicial corruption where a judge was involved in extortion. Furthermore, instances of ghost employment within the Regional Water Management Authority and significant financial irregularities in the Talas district’s budget have been unearthed. A former leader of the Labour, Social Security and Migration Department in Issyk-Kul province was detained for misappropriating state funds. The Anti-Monopoly Service took action against the Bonetsky Laboratory for a breach of the Competition Act and the SNCB uncovered a corruption scheme in land registration in the Yysik-Atin district.

  • Disaster in March: A severe windstorm on March 28 damaged numerous educational facilities in Bishkek, causing injuries and extensive property damage. The country faced a significant public health challenge with over 6,000 reported measles cases since the start of the year, affecting predominantly children. Additionally, rising temperatures have increased the risk of avalanches in mountainous regions, posing further threats to communities.

  • Purge/Replace in April: President Sadyr Japarov dismissed multiple high-ranking officials, including Cabinet heads and deputy governors, marking a comprehensive reshuffle in the country’s administrative leadership. Additionally, the Ministry of Internal Affairs conducted extensive personnel changes aimed at enhancing law enforcement effectiveness, which included the rotation and dismissal of several department heads and deputies.The General Prosecutor’s Office took action against six prosecutors and the internal disciplining of 87 leaders within the Ministry of Internal Affairs for operational deficiencies.

  • Raids in April: Efforts to regulate the commercial sphere saw over 20,000 packs of cigarettes seized in a raid against unsanctioned trade. Additionally, massive searches at various nightclubs in Bishkek were conducted to curb drug use among the youth, alongside a separate initiative where 230 motorcycle drivers were fined for unregulated traffic.

Forecasting

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

South Africa

For South Africa, our data includes coverage through April 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in March: Amnesty International called for the protection of activists from Abahlali baseMjondolo amidst allegations of harassment and killings, highlighting the severe struggles against corruption in local governance. National debates over the minimum hourly wage have brought attention to the perpetuation of apartheid-era labor disparities. Health and environmental activism has also been prominent, with the Treatment Action Campaign and TB Accountability Consortium demanding better government action on tuberculosis, and individual efforts like Sarah Magni’s river swimming initiative raising awareness on environmental degradation.

  • Censorship in March: The Johannesburg high court dealt with cases ranging from rejecting urgent bids to interdict the airing of a controversial documentary series to ordering the Department of Home Affairs to unblock an unfairly blocked ID. Another case saw a convicted sex offender attempting to prevent media reporting on his name ahead of a trial, touching on the balance between fair trial rights and the public’s right to information. Furthermore, Stellenbosch University was accused of practicing “apartheid-era style censorship” by initially cancelling a seminar on the healthcare crisis in Gaza, though it later reversed its decision.

  • Legal Changes in April: The cabinet approved the Final White Paper on Citizenship, Immigration, and Refugee Protection, signaling a major overhaul of the country’s migration system. Amendments to the Basic Education Laws Amendment (Bela) Bill will shift decision-making power regarding public school language policies to School Governing Bodies, promoting localized control. In Cape Town, measures are being proposed to combat organized crime affecting city projects by revising procurement processes. Additionally, the National Energy Regulator approved a significant electricity tariff increase for the state utility Eskom.

  • Security Mobilization in March: In Cape Town, authorities implemented measures including the deployment of over 30 rangers with additional technological support, such as drones donated by the Consulate General of the People’s Republic of China, to ensure safety in Table Mountain National Park. Similarly, an increased police presence targeted violent crimes and shootings in several communities, with more than 145 officers from specialized units being mobilized. The national strategy also extended to border security, with the deployment of 400 junior border guards to manage the expected surge in cross-border traffic during the Easter period. Moreover, the threat to public infrastructure led the KING Sabata Dalindyebo Local Municipality in the Eastern Cape to consider drones and CCTV to deter electricity infrastructure vandalism.

  • Protests in March: In Durban, a strike by the South African Municipal Workers Union led to serious disruptions in municipal services. Cape Town witnessed the LGBTQI+ community marching in their annual Pride parade, using the occasion to stand against the crackdown on LGBTQI+ rights. Ekurhuleni saw significant disruptions in public transport due to a strike concerning a dispute over a bus service contract. Protests outside the Vredenburg Magistrate’s Court in the Western Cape brought attention to community perceptions of injustice in a legal case. Meanwhile, in Soweto, residents protested for improved housing conditions, demonstrating through attempts to block major roads and causing damage.

  • Purge/Replace in March: The firing of former judges John Hlophe and Nkola Motata highlighted judicial accountability. The political scene was additionally stirred by allegations of substantial bribes against National Assembly Speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, leading to her special leave of absence, and notable figures such as the former Minister of Police Nathi Nhleko resigning from the ANC, alongside Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan announcing his departure from active politics.

  • Raids in March: The Johannesburg home of the National Assembly Speaker was raided by the Investigating Directorate amid allegations of accepting bribes during her time as defence minister. The South African Football Association’s offices also experienced a raid by a specialized crime investigation unit following accusations of fraud and theft. Moreover, efforts to combat illegal operations extended to raids against illegal mining in Ekurhuleni and the seizure of counterfeit goods in Rustenburg.

  • Lethal Violence in March:In KwaZulu-Natal, a violent confrontation between police and suspects connected to the murder of a family in Ulundi ended in the deaths of two suspects. Meanwhile, in Cape Town’s Imizamo Yethu, Hout Bay, a mass shooting resulted in the deaths of five men, with another five individuals injured. Additionally, in the Free State, an 11-year-old girl was the victim of a brutal axe murder, followed by the retaliatory killing of the suspect.

Forecasting

In our last report, our models predicted an increase in reporting Legal Actions in Q4 2023. Consisted with this prediction, we saw a spike in reporting on Legal Actions a few months late in Q1 2024.

Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.