Background

The Problem:

Energy Efficiency (EE) uses the Total Resource Cost (TRC) test to determine what EE resources to procure. TRC represents costs and benefits of EE projects to the Utility and Participant. Unfortunately, most Fuel-Substitution measures have very low TRC values under EE’s current Cost-Effectiveness framework which means Program Administrators struggle to implement them.

ED recognizes that the TRC currently does not include the Methane leakage abatement benefits.

Research Question:

If EE factored methane leakage benefits in, how would this impact the TRC of Fuel-Sub projects?

To explore this question, Calculate Gas Benefits claimed in PG&E’s 2023 Plug Load and Appliance, and Upstream HVAC Programs in Single Family Homes.

Inputs

#Selections
MeasAppType <- 'NR'
BldgType <- 'SFm'
SZ <- 'med'
ClimateZone <- 12
HeatPumpHVAC_res <- 'SWHC045'  
HPWH_res <- 'SWWH025'

#Existing
EUL_HVAC <- 15 
EUL_HPWH <- 10 
#2024 Study
EUL_HVAC_2 <- 23 
EUL_HPWH_2 <- 20 

#calculated in other FS Analysis
TRC_HVAC_EULNew <- 0.92 
TRC_HPWH_EULNew <- 0.62

Data Sources

The data inputs are shown below:

• Claims data was pulled from CEDARS in April 2024: https://cedars.sound-data.com/reports/download-record-level-report/claims/2023/

The data from the online sources were truncated and renamed to simplify this analysis; the names of these files are listed below.

#Read in Fuel Sub Claims 2023 Q1-Q4
FS23 <- read_excel("C:\\Users\\mmh\\R  Programming\\subtests\\FS_NewBens\\23_FS_Claims_PGE.xlsx") #Normal Replacement Only (No New Construction)

Calculate Benefits

#Total Therm Savings from Claims Data 
Therms_HVAC <- c(sum(df_HeatPumpHVAC_res$`Therm_TotalAnnual`))*EUL_HVAC
Therms_HPWH <- c(sum(df_HPWH_res$`Therm_TotalAnnual`))*EUL_HPWH

Therms_HVAC2 <- c(sum(df_HeatPumpHVAC_res$`Therm_TotalAnnual`))*EUL_HVAC_2
Therms_HPWH2 <- c(sum(df_HPWH_res$`Therm_TotalAnnual`))*EUL_HPWH_2
#Gas GHG Adder
Gas_GHG_Adder <- 0.07 #$/tonne CO2 for 2023 Methane. The ACC inflates the $114 each year in the equivalent amount of the discount. So, when you discount the costs each yr, the values end up being constant. 

MethaneBens_HeatPumpHVAC_res <-  (Therms_HVAC* Gas_GHG_Adder)
MethaneBens_HPWH_res <-  ( Therms_HPWH* Gas_GHG_Adder)
MethaneBens_HeatPumpHVAC_res2 <-  (Therms_HVAC2* Gas_GHG_Adder)
MethaneBens_HPWH_res2 <-  ( Therms_HPWH2* Gas_GHG_Adder)

TotalBens_HPHVAC <-MethaneBens_HeatPumpHVAC_res + Claims_GasBen_HeatPumpHVAC_res
TotalBens_HPWH <-MethaneBens_HPWH_res + Claims_GasBen_HPWH_res

percent_inc_GasGHG_HVAC <- (TotalBens_HPHVAC - Claims_GasBen_HeatPumpHVAC_res) / Claims_GasBen_HeatPumpHVAC_res
percent_inc_GasGHG_HPWH <-  (TotalBens_HPWH - Claims_GasBen_HPWH_res) / Claims_GasBen_HPWH_res

Results:

#Calculate increases to TRC Benefits

Claims_HP_HVAC <- filter(FS23, CZ == ClimateZone, MeasureID == HeatPumpHVAC_res, `Measure Application Type` == MeasAppType, `Building Type` == BldgType)
TRC_Claims_HP_HVAC <- mean(Claims_HP_HVAC$TRC)

Claims_HPWH <- filter(FS23, CZ == ClimateZone, MeasureID == HPWH_res, `Measure Application Type` == MeasAppType, `Building Type` == BldgType)
TRC_Claims_HPWH <- mean(Claims_HPWH$TRC)


#Add Gas GHG Adder in 
TRC_HPHVAC_GasGHG <- TRC_Claims_HP_HVAC + (TRC_Claims_HP_HVAC*percent_inc_GasGHG_HVAC)
TRC_HPWH_GasGHG <-TRC_Claims_HPWH +(TRC_Claims_HPWH*percent_inc_GasGHG_HPWH)
Average Total Resource Costs (TRC) for Residential Fuel-Sub Measures, CZ12
Measure TRC Claims TRC, Increased from Gas GHG Adder for Methane TRC, Increased from Gas GHG Adder for Methane and EUL Study
HVAC Heat Pump, Residential 0.77 0.83 0.94
Heat Pump Water Heater, Residential 0.40 0.43 0.63
Total Benefits for Fuel Sub Measure Claims
Measure Gas Benefits Claimed No Methane, Existing EUL Gas Benefits, No Methane, Updated EUL Methane Abatement Gas Benefits, Existing EUL Methane Abatement Gas Benefits, Updated EUL
HVAC Heat Pump $1,146,105 $1,364,316 $90,185.52 $138,284
Heat Pump Water Heater $285,403 $445,266 $20,934.80 $41,869.60