Rice Production in Nigeria

Author

Abdul-Ganiu Ayomide Bisiriyu

Introduction: Rice Production in Nigeria and the Impact of Population Growth

Rice is a vital staple food in Nigeria, playing a critical role in the country’s food security and economy. Nigeria has historically been one of the largest producers of rice in Africa, with significant growth in production over the decades. However, despite rapid population growth, the country has faced challenges in sustaining high levels of rice production. 

Data Analysis and Findings

Sources of Data

The data used in this report were obtained from the following sources:

  • Rice Production Data: Kaggle Statistics Database.

  • Population Data: Macro Trends. (https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/NGA/nigeria/population)

Note: The population data were divided by 10000 to aid a better visualization.

Overview of Rice Production in Nigeria

Rice cultivation in Nigeria has a long history, but significant modernization and expansion occurred from the 1960s onwards. The country produces various rice varieties, with a focus on meeting local consumption preferences, particularly long-grain rice.

In 1968, Nigeria achieved its peak rice production of 16,000 tonnes, marking a significant milestone in domestic agricultural output. This period was characterized by government interventions and investments aimed at boosting agricultural productivity, including the promotion of improved seed varieties and irrigation infrastructure.

Entity Year Maize Production (tonnes) Rice Production ( tonnes) Yams Production (tonnes) Wheat Production (tonnes) Tomatoes Production (tonnes) Tea Production ( tonnes ) Sweet potatoes Production (tonnes) Sunflower seed Production (tonnes) Sugar cane Production (tonnes) Soybeans Production (tonnes) Rye Production (tonnes) Potatoes Production (tonnes) Oranges Production (tonnes) Peas, dry Production ( tonnes) Palm oil Production (tonnes) Grapes Production (tonnes) Coffee, green Production ( tonnes) Cocoa beans Production (tonnes) Meat, chicken Production (tonnes) Bananas Production ( tonnes) Avocados Production (tonnes) Apples Production (tonnes)
Nigeria 1961 1107000 2000.00 6665.00 4676290 10717 64339.6 45217.00 116946.8 7241520 43981.28 10497454.400 907394 2255651 160904.058 13890.0 22057236.40 995.200 110489.718 14249.00 0 87356.200 10561684.80
Nigeria 1962 991000 4000.00 10103.20 5436300 10280 64339.6 50013.00 184562.8 6245958 100259.92 17098255.800 813870 1950194 1117.858 13890.0 36598999.20 9.600 479.926 14869.00 0 100714.000 17563876.00
Nigeria 1963 1167000 12000.00 823.60 5083800 9629 64339.6 47519.00 23188.8 8163416 96.00 212000.000 807911 1996823 396537.000 13890.0 2422832.66 2888.000 284253.800 14808.00 0 79095.000 281020.00
Nigeria 1964 1118000 12000.00 10103.20 7293623 10038 64339.6 51283.00 184562.8 7369093 100259.92 17098255.800 925913 2146404 1117.858 13890.0 36598999.20 9.600 479.926 14908.00 0 100714.000 17563876.00
Nigeria 1965 1160000 18000.00 2640.40 5007698 9405 64339.6 47137.00 55228.8 7764166 41817.28 3715500.800 877543 2276191 322232.658 13890.0 8857056.26 2250.800 230030.960 17508.00 0 89085.400 3461669.60
Nigeria 1966 975000 14508.72 880.80 6822160 10038 69684.4 53000.00 23226.8 9145997 18704456.00 237300.000 950834 2483249 444085.400 28300.0 2433421.26 3180.000 293467.000 19313.00 0 78833.000 273820.00
Nigeria 1967 950000 14338.84 4686.20 6290100 10202 64339.6 57000.00 77331.6 7898424 42985.28 7237345.600 1118917 2637089 241255.458 13890.0 15114017.86 1937.800 179885.928 20040.00 0 72378.200 6913021.60
Nigeria 1968 1126000 16000.00 880.80 7096724 10901 64811.8 54400.00 23226.8 8980645 40155294.80 237300.000 1062174 2770648 528659.200 27850.0 2433421.26 3180.000 293467.000 19390.00 0 78833.000 273820.00
Nigeria 1969 1255000 10014.48 2979.42 4026694 8565 16920.2 47039.00 12056507.2 11300858 552647.80 121220.000 1025709 2910771 1419145.800 47374.0 964840.25 91629.800 114213.400 21110.00 0 31302.800 126201.60
Nigeria 1970 1443000 5200.00 823.60 5521582 9970 64339.6 45192.00 23188.8 8277383 96.00 212000.000 1066994 3147158 396537.000 13890.0 2422832.66 2888.000 284253.800 22233.00 0 79095.000 281020.00
Nigeria 1971 1274000 8580.00 880.80 6436359 9408 47422.4 47720.00 23226.8 9678369 18704456.00 237300.000 995068 3357112 444085.400 44500.0 2433421.26 3180.000 293467.000 22497.00 0 78833.000 273820.00
Nigeria 1972 639000 4270.00 880.80 6714300 9888 69684.4 54684.00 23226.8 9170581 18704456.00 237300.000 860967 3546232 444085.400 28300.0 2433421.26 3180.000 293467.000 19822.00 0 78833.000 273820.00
Nigeria 1973 808000 5356.00 900.80 4804772 10169 50345.4 61007.00 746.8 8711599 124.00 181040.000 970292 3748495 403361.200 30750.0 2380518.96 2750.000 276916.600 22171.00 0 80105.000 300420.00
Nigeria 1974 528000 1970.00 823.60 5941197 10868 64339.6 55541.00 23188.8 8604381 96.00 212000.000 947578 4390323 396537.000 13890.0 2422832.66 2888.000 284253.800 28318.00 0 79095.000 281020.00
Nigeria 1975 1332000 600.00 8232.80 6876657 11082 64339.6 64952.00 159467.6 7482834 75171.28 13696223.400 1002428 4582344 89273.058 13890.0 28738135.96 521.000 53325.674 33881.66 0 97504.000 14105532.80
Nigeria 1976 1068000 2450.00 10103.20 5189828 11561 64339.6 62593.00 184562.8 6951028 100259.92 17098255.800 1012735 4423620 1117.858 13890.0 36598999.20 9.600 479.926 25431.27 0 100714.000 17563876.00
Nigeria 1977 650000 1375.00 10103.20 7744900 11835 64339.6 59140.00 184562.8 7162107 100259.92 17098255.800 1001176 4422154 1117.858 13890.0 36598999.20 9.600 479.926 30194.79 0 100714.000 17563876.00
Nigeria 1978 658000 1473.51 10103.20 6471400 13261 64339.6 55225.00 184562.8 6264304 100259.92 17098255.800 1075737 4739502 1117.858 13890.0 36598999.20 9.600 479.926 31887.88 0 100714.000 17563876.00
Nigeria 1979 488000 1766.17 10103.20 6362694 12018 64339.6 59744.00 184562.8 5448497 100259.92 17098255.800 1078140 4925693 1117.858 13890.0 36598999.20 9.600 479.926 23434.65 0 100714.000 17563876.00
Nigeria 1980 612000 1538.23 10103.20 7873135 15789 64339.6 58938.00 184562.8 6998396 100259.92 17098255.800 1161511 4628257 1117.858 13890.0 36598999.20 9.600 479.926 41484.39 0 100714.000 17563876.00
Nigeria 1981 720000 1592.64 10103.20 4875957 14075 64339.6 67642.00 184562.8 6850546 100259.92 17098255.800 1119741 5197182 1117.858 13890.0 36598999.20 9.600 479.926 43857.78 0 100714.000 17563876.00
Nigeria 1982 766000 1632.35 12022600.40 8322510 12672 64339.6 68092.00 133692.8 5830923 159204.23 10116716.600 1317434 5785532 2453360.400 82256.4 15437843.20 51740.620 735.514 42410.85 1697254 75681.600 7165170.00
Nigeria 1983 1027000 2540.00 10103.20 6041170 12923 64339.6 58085.35 184562.8 4796722 100259.92 17098255.800 1267200 5492930 1117.858 13890.0 36598999.20 9.600 479.926 33946.19 1740369 100714.000 17563876.00
Nigeria 1984 1196000 2177.00 12022600.40 8143510 11944 64339.6 48705.15 133692.8 5857553 159204.23 10116716.600 1237989 5760053 2453360.400 82256.4 15437843.20 51740.620 735.514 34417.26 1721528 75681.600 7165170.00
Nigeria 1985 1826000 1814.00 26725062.40 8564630 12159 54947.2 61968.00 25316.0 4803310 318284.23 21478.700 1300567 5923303 3739714.700 357210.6 2912400.00 104006.620 1831.600 115000.00 1684020 44960.400 83500.00
Nigeria 1986 3550000 1900.00 13560877.80 324000 12975 117536.4 60500.00 1835347.6 5503571 19471.80 1275.200 1355068 5815940 1278431.400 98119.0 199936.00 445524.688 583.000 128000.00 1859316 31928.894 440430.00
Nigeria 1987 4612000 2000.00 13560877.80 265000 13763 100666.0 54300.00 1812887.6 4861810 78800.00 1275.200 1324380 6121275 2360346.000 98119.0 187800.00 7997.580 583.000 134000.00 1853438 39683.800 457576.00
Nigeria 1988 5268000 2000.00 13560877.80 473000 11512 1760.6 54393.99 1835347.6 4384248 19471.80 1275.200 1441931 5261845 1278431.400 98119.0 199936.00 445524.688 583.000 140000.00 1887681 31928.894 440430.00
Nigeria 1989 5008000 2000.00 13560877.80 778600 11141 1760.6 58610.00 1812887.6 4112389 78800.00 1275.200 1399675 6836250 2360346.000 98119.0 187800.00 7997.580 583.000 153500.00 1873048 39683.800 457576.00
Nigeria 1990 5768000 2000.00 14731760.20 516000 10574 1760.6 54778.28 1902402.5 3766023 94200.00 1156.000 1472358 7388430 2838360.800 108651.2 225800.00 7901.818 630.000 160000.00 1866120 41283.800 465747.60
Nigeria 1991 5810000 2000.00 14731760.20 463000 12801 1760.6 52629.00 1902402.5 3405490 94200.00 1156.000 1542429 7114751 2838360.800 108651.2 225800.00 7901.818 630.000 166400.00 1753898 41283.800 465747.60
Nigeria 1992 5840000 2000.00 14731760.20 702000 12761 8137.2 57256.63 1902402.5 3018730 94200.00 1156.000 1607491 7451886 2838360.800 108651.2 225800.00 7901.818 630.000 172800.00 1815683 41283.800 465747.60
Nigeria 1993 6290000 2000.00 13717469.20 726000 14239 17596.0 56942.00 589507.1 2302989 115910.40 48036.200 1603199 8590657 2965715.000 129863.8 303981.66 13964.984 1275.000 179200.00 1931549 138227.400 177226.74
Nigeria 1994 6902000 3000.00 8912902.60 717578 13321 17596.0 49294.00 619507.1 2095731 79847.00 68756.800 1767591 8813961 1834718.600 129863.8 247981.66 15267.896 1410.000 192000.00 1829442 200766.000 159626.74
Nigeria 1995 6931000 3000.00 5914017.60 600000 181013 17596.0 53007.42 71529.0 1804300 62272.60 95551.400 1738776 9762613 1087705.600 129863.8 326282.34 20607.492 1697.800 204800.00 1965882 240128.400 56858.55
Nigeria 1996 5667000 3000.00 20246342.60 26400 189208 20198.4 54937.48 962688.3 1195050 149400.00 1153.000 1874197 8382314 4517511.800 133689.0 312564.00 8022.714 776.000 215485.00 1890979 48683.800 279646.00
Nigeria 1997 5254000 3000.00 17443891.20 28500 183456 20898.4 65522.00 562507.1 940212 139763.80 28632.000 1829767 8424782 3933866.400 133689.0 384945.66 12551.018 1082.600 229190.00 2075342 83644.200 200026.74
Nigeria 1998 5127000 3000.00 5488503.49 30940 185376 24782.6 68380.00 45856.0 714257 64518.60 262819.446 1702489 10475473 1473093.800 122245.6 80392.80 4929.492 131320.400 248075.00 2086422 142099.000 380475.00
Nigeria 1999 5476000 3000.00 261166.77 36765 201056 24782.6 58248.80 96868.6 780917 4862.20 302514.940 1805623 10543062 305451.800 122245.6 45124.00 8622.200 95963.600 269162.00 2204631 238016.400 290889.40
Nigeria 2000 4107000 3000.00 11286.69 56008 200544 17020.4 57700.00 59376.0 765502 78082.00 516766.046 1836757 10987354 387033.000 159260.0 64216.80 94599.200 388409.400 288811.00 1967375 135495.200 458526.20
Nigeria 2001 4596000 3000.00 11286.69 68976 214545 17020.4 67535.00 59376.0 664272 78082.00 516766.046 1749957 10883314 387033.000 159260.0 64216.80 94599.200 388409.400 310471.00 1826958 135495.200 458526.20
Nigeria 2002 4890000 3000.00 11286.69 78446 207578 17020.4 65054.99 59376.0 712483 78082.00 516766.046 1813346 11077465 387033.000 159260.0 64216.80 94599.200 388409.400 335682.00 2092247 135495.200 458526.20
Nigeria 2003 5203000 3000.00 11286.69 87535 207746 17020.4 67955.64 59376.0 688560 78082.00 516766.046 1791599 12233962 387033.000 159260.0 64216.80 94599.200 388409.400 366683.00 2158711 135495.200 458526.20
Nigeria 2004 5567000 3000.00 15091.60 123200 208183 1245.4 64158.29 96920.0 577517 210541.40 1346300.000 1754364 13513198 698958.600 254381.0 72998.80 290494.800 939762.200 399230.00 2113987 208428.540 528890.20
Nigeria 2005 5957000 3000.00 15091.60 115300 221606 1245.4 76881.30 96920.0 533638 210541.40 1346300.000 1694376 14096500 698958.600 254381.0 72998.80 290494.800 939762.200 426285.00 2213298 208428.540 528890.20
Nigeria 2006 7100000 3000.00 15091.60 163000 251099 1245.4 89503.44 96920.0 542169 210541.40 1346300.000 1917824 14114983 698958.600 254381.0 72998.80 290494.800 939762.200 449907.00 2173384 208428.540 528890.20
Nigeria 2007 6724000 3000.00 2612.40 124000 237677 21340.0 95638.82 977221.6 664911 28515674.80 332.166 1726962 2949878 125540.400 147130.6 1383795.08 4390.400 128330.732 468647.00 2327747 4460.056 27534.00
Nigeria 2008 7525000 3000.00 2612.40 152000 199585 21340.0 86745.98 977221.6 573445 28515674.80 332.166 1806096 2335862 125540.400 176125.6 1383795.08 4390.400 128330.732 489917.00 2328312 4460.056 27534.00
Nigeria 2009 7358260 3000.00 2612.40 235000 217322 21340.0 85239.51 977221.6 501705 28515674.80 332.166 1658852 3114219 125540.400 147130.6 1383795.08 4390.400 128330.732 551704.00 2501319 4460.056 27534.00
Nigeria 2010 7676850 3000.00 2612.40 269000 211010 21340.0 1656330.00 977221.6 621871 30457643.60 332.166 1854673 3174862 151220.400 147130.6 673654.72 5727.200 128330.732 672641.00 2428772 4460.056 26294.60
Nigeria 2011 8878456 3000.00 377228.40 263000 240633 17337.6 1258381.00 430560.8 575347 32185891.80 3674819.736 1782262 3290438 162190.400 140325.6 18387.12 6722.000 55547.916 672893.00 2506747 104279.178 26281.00
Nigeria 2012 8694900 2260.00 377228.40 289000 245780 17337.6 1279937.00 430560.8 530796 32185891.80 3674819.736 1620862 3751621 162190.400 113716.2 18387.12 6722.000 55547.916 627449.00 2305092 104279.178 26281.00
Nigeria 2013 8422670 3050.21 329738.00 312000 222910 17337.6 1332081.00 580860.8 594724 32185891.80 133731.008 1613506 3505939 162190.400 114530.6 18387.12 6722.000 79525.836 611032.00 2701870 105117.178 26281.00
Nigeria 2014 10790600 3051.35 431157.60 165000 255741 8755.8 1597985.00 52884.8 387370 7689110.60 7511625.294 1605964 3561096 142490.400 35890.0 17310.88 65427.000 1324.600 750427.00 2611741 200859.318 4758779.60
Nigeria 2015 9540190 3052.49 554370.99 231000 266459 14773.4 1517653.00 173755.0 503340 30261755.60 3739090.172 1581315 4200360 136030.400 87857.0 17310.88 65465.200 28071.484 857947.00 2483906 180631.318 4757674.20
Nigeria 2016 10532340 3053.64 559381.39 218000 291296 8755.8 2112941.00 32260.8 631092 7689110.60 3801159.106 1687095 3464433 142490.400 35890.0 17310.88 65427.000 763.000 898495.00 2492717 278118.058 4758779.60
Nigeria 2017 10632299 3054.78 559381.39 142000 285714 8755.8 2522139.00 32260.8 770322 7689110.60 3801159.106 1748724 3763855 142490.400 35890.0 17310.88 65427.000 763.000 1040029.00 2652921 278118.058 4758779.60
Nigeria 2018 10934149 3055.92 431157.60 176000 320194 8755.8 2924638.00 52884.8 843520 7689110.60 7511625.294 1632433 4461470 142490.400 35075.6 17310.88 65427.000 1324.600 1126008.00 2639903 200859.318 4758779.60
Nigeria 2019 12598945 3057.97 1339345.00 157000 332494 2586.2 2556224.00 55536.0 890940 5980698.60 10328099.000 1825735 4155032 127150.400 4090.0 16625.28 100532.400 27101.102 1283867.00 2548614 80609.488 9555769.20
Nigeria 2020 12400000 3029.15 479049.60 79000 321301 2586.2 2631779.00 56322.6 933520 5980698.60 10401111.800 1900 4285463 127150.400 4090.0 16625.28 100532.400 1989.600 1264366.00 2709354 102425.978 9555769.20
Nigeria 2021 12745000 2900.00 1339345.00 199000 337526 2586.2 2353314.00 55536.0 1029840 3622551.40 10328099.000 1850 4232763 89480.000 4090.0 14127.88 136133.800 27101.102 1441905.00 2873672 80609.488 15887655.60

Impact of Population Growth

Nigeria’s population has grown substantially, from approximately 45 million in 1961 to over 206 million in 2021, making it the most populous country in Africa. This demographic trend has profoundly influenced agricultural dynamics, including rice production.

Despite the rapid population growth, rice production in Nigeria has not consistently kept pace. After reaching its peak of 16,000 tonnes in 1968, production began to decline steadily, affected by various factors such as inconsistent government policies, inadequate infrastructure, and challenges in accessing modern agricultural practices.

By 2000, rice production had decreased to 2,000 tonnes, a significant drop from its peak. Despite efforts to revive production through various initiatives, including the Presidential Initiative on Rice and the Agricultural Transformation Agenda, challenges persisted. As of 2021, rice production further declined to 2,900 tonnes, highlighting ongoing struggles in achieving sustainable production levels amidst population growth and increasing demand.

Entity Year Maize.Production..tonnes. Rice..Production…tonnes. Yams..Production..tonnes. Wheat.Production..tonnes. Tomatoes.Production..tonnes. Tea..Production…tonnes.. Sweet.potatoes..Production..tonnes. Sunflower.seed..Production..tonnes. Sugar.cane.Production..tonnes. Soybeans..Production..tonnes. Rye..Production..tonnes. Potatoes..Production..tonnes. Oranges..Production..tonnes. Peas..dry.Production…tonnes. Palm.oil..Production..tonnes. Grapes..Production..tonnes. Coffee..green.Production…tonnes. Cocoa.beans.Production..tonnes. Meat..chicken..Production..tonnes. Bananas..Production…tonnes. Avocados.Production..tonnes. Apples.Production..tonnes. nigpop2.Population
Nigeria 1961 1107000 2000.00 6665.00 4676290 10717 64339.6 45217.00 116946.8 7241520 43981.28 10497454.400 907394 2255651 160904.058 13890.0 22057236.40 995.200 110489.718 14249.00 0 87356.200 10561684.80 45855507
Nigeria 1962 991000 4000.00 10103.20 5436300 10280 64339.6 50013.00 184562.8 6245958 100259.92 17098255.800 813870 1950194 1117.858 13890.0 36598999.20 9.600 479.926 14869.00 0 100714.000 17563876.00 46821845
Nigeria 1963 1167000 12000.00 823.60 5083800 9629 64339.6 47519.00 23188.8 8163416 96.00 212000.000 807911 1996823 396537.000 13890.0 2422832.66 2888.000 284253.800 14808.00 0 79095.000 281020.00 47822569
Nigeria 1964 1118000 12000.00 10103.20 7293623 10038 64339.6 51283.00 184562.8 7369093 100259.92 17098255.800 925913 2146404 1117.858 13890.0 36598999.20 9.600 479.926 14908.00 0 100714.000 17563876.00 48856332
Nigeria 1965 1160000 18000.00 2640.40 5007698 9405 64339.6 47137.00 55228.8 7764166 41817.28 3715500.800 877543 2276191 322232.658 13890.0 8857056.26 2250.800 230030.960 17508.00 0 89085.400 3461669.60 49925799
Nigeria 1966 975000 14508.72 880.80 6822160 10038 69684.4 53000.00 23226.8 9145997 18704456.00 237300.000 950834 2483249 444085.400 28300.0 2433421.26 3180.000 293467.000 19313.00 0 78833.000 273820.00 51020296
Nigeria 1967 950000 14338.84 4686.20 6290100 10202 64339.6 57000.00 77331.6 7898424 42985.28 7237345.600 1118917 2637089 241255.458 13890.0 15114017.86 1937.800 179885.928 20040.00 0 72378.200 6913021.60 52106681
Nigeria 1968 1126000 16000.00 880.80 7096724 10901 64811.8 54400.00 23226.8 8980645 40155294.80 237300.000 1062174 2770648 528659.200 27850.0 2433421.26 3180.000 293467.000 19390.00 0 78833.000 273820.00 53210119
Nigeria 1969 1255000 10014.48 2979.42 4026694 8565 16920.2 47039.00 12056507.2 11300858 552647.80 121220.000 1025709 2910771 1419145.800 47374.0 964840.25 91629.800 114213.400 21110.00 0 31302.800 126201.60 54360750
Nigeria 1970 1443000 5200.00 823.60 5521582 9970 64339.6 45192.00 23188.8 8277383 96.00 212000.000 1066994 3147158 396537.000 13890.0 2422832.66 2888.000 284253.800 22233.00 0 79095.000 281020.00 55569264
Nigeria 1971 1274000 8580.00 880.80 6436359 9408 47422.4 47720.00 23226.8 9678369 18704456.00 237300.000 995068 3357112 444085.400 44500.0 2433421.26 3180.000 293467.000 22497.00 0 78833.000 273820.00 56837614
Nigeria 1972 639000 4270.00 880.80 6714300 9888 69684.4 54684.00 23226.8 9170581 18704456.00 237300.000 860967 3546232 444085.400 28300.0 2433421.26 3180.000 293467.000 19822.00 0 78833.000 273820.00 58173834
Nigeria 1973 808000 5356.00 900.80 4804772 10169 50345.4 61007.00 746.8 8711599 124.00 181040.000 970292 3748495 403361.200 30750.0 2380518.96 2750.000 276916.600 22171.00 0 80105.000 300420.00 59605446
Nigeria 1974 528000 1970.00 823.60 5941197 10868 64339.6 55541.00 23188.8 8604381 96.00 212000.000 947578 4390323 396537.000 13890.0 2422832.66 2888.000 284253.800 28318.00 0 79095.000 281020.00 61157931
Nigeria 1975 1332000 600.00 8232.80 6876657 11082 64339.6 64952.00 159467.6 7482834 75171.28 13696223.400 1002428 4582344 89273.058 13890.0 28738135.96 521.000 53325.674 33881.66 0 97504.000 14105532.80 62851312
Nigeria 1976 1068000 2450.00 10103.20 5189828 11561 64339.6 62593.00 184562.8 6951028 100259.92 17098255.800 1012735 4423620 1117.858 13890.0 36598999.20 9.600 479.926 25431.27 0 100714.000 17563876.00 64658315
Nigeria 1977 650000 1375.00 10103.20 7744900 11835 64339.6 59140.00 184562.8 7162107 100259.92 17098255.800 1001176 4422154 1117.858 13890.0 36598999.20 9.600 479.926 30194.79 0 100714.000 17563876.00 66589655
Nigeria 1978 658000 1473.51 10103.20 6471400 13261 64339.6 55225.00 184562.8 6264304 100259.92 17098255.800 1075737 4739502 1117.858 13890.0 36598999.20 9.600 479.926 31887.88 0 100714.000 17563876.00 68633344
Nigeria 1979 488000 1766.17 10103.20 6362694 12018 64339.6 59744.00 184562.8 5448497 100259.92 17098255.800 1078140 4925693 1117.858 13890.0 36598999.20 9.600 479.926 23434.65 0 100714.000 17563876.00 70750307
Nigeria 1980 612000 1538.23 10103.20 7873135 15789 64339.6 58938.00 184562.8 6998396 100259.92 17098255.800 1161511 4628257 1117.858 13890.0 36598999.20 9.600 479.926 41484.39 0 100714.000 17563876.00 72951439
Nigeria 1981 720000 1592.64 10103.20 4875957 14075 64339.6 67642.00 184562.8 6850546 100259.92 17098255.800 1119741 5197182 1117.858 13890.0 36598999.20 9.600 479.926 43857.78 0 100714.000 17563876.00 75175387
Nigeria 1982 766000 1632.35 12022600.40 8322510 12672 64339.6 68092.00 133692.8 5830923 159204.23 10116716.600 1317434 5785532 2453360.400 82256.4 15437843.20 51740.620 735.514 42410.85 1697254 75681.600 7165170.00 77388067
Nigeria 1983 1027000 2540.00 10103.20 6041170 12923 64339.6 58085.35 184562.8 4796722 100259.92 17098255.800 1267200 5492930 1117.858 13890.0 36598999.20 9.600 479.926 33946.19 1740369 100714.000 17563876.00 79351586
Nigeria 1984 1196000 2177.00 12022600.40 8143510 11944 64339.6 48705.15 133692.8 5857553 159204.23 10116716.600 1237989 5760053 2453360.400 82256.4 15437843.20 51740.620 735.514 34417.26 1721528 75681.600 7165170.00 81337553
Nigeria 1985 1826000 1814.00 26725062.40 8564630 12159 54947.2 61968.00 25316.0 4803310 318284.23 21478.700 1300567 5923303 3739714.700 357210.6 2912400.00 104006.620 1831.600 115000.00 1684020 44960.400 83500.00 83585251
Nigeria 1986 3550000 1900.00 13560877.80 324000 12975 117536.4 60500.00 1835347.6 5503571 19471.80 1275.200 1355068 5815940 1278431.400 98119.0 199936.00 445524.688 583.000 128000.00 1859316 31928.894 440430.00 85804185
Nigeria 1987 4612000 2000.00 13560877.80 265000 13763 100666.0 54300.00 1812887.6 4861810 78800.00 1275.200 1324380 6121275 2360346.000 98119.0 187800.00 7997.580 583.000 134000.00 1853438 39683.800 457576.00 88044187
Nigeria 1988 5268000 2000.00 13560877.80 473000 11512 1760.6 54393.99 1835347.6 4384248 19471.80 1275.200 1441931 5261845 1278431.400 98119.0 199936.00 445524.688 583.000 140000.00 1887681 31928.894 440430.00 90351467
Nigeria 1989 5008000 2000.00 13560877.80 778600 11141 1760.6 58610.00 1812887.6 4112389 78800.00 1275.200 1399675 6836250 2360346.000 98119.0 187800.00 7997.580 583.000 153500.00 1873048 39683.800 457576.00 92744064
Nigeria 1990 5768000 2000.00 14731760.20 516000 10574 1760.6 54778.28 1902402.5 3766023 94200.00 1156.000 1472358 7388430 2838360.800 108651.2 225800.00 7901.818 630.000 160000.00 1866120 41283.800 465747.60 95214257
Nigeria 1991 5810000 2000.00 14731760.20 463000 12801 1760.6 52629.00 1902402.5 3405490 94200.00 1156.000 1542429 7114751 2838360.800 108651.2 225800.00 7901.818 630.000 166400.00 1753898 41283.800 465747.60 97685360
Nigeria 1992 5840000 2000.00 14731760.20 702000 12761 8137.2 57256.63 1902402.5 3018730 94200.00 1156.000 1607491 7451886 2838360.800 108651.2 225800.00 7901.818 630.000 172800.00 1815683 41283.800 465747.60 100182045
Nigeria 1993 6290000 2000.00 13717469.20 726000 14239 17596.0 56942.00 589507.1 2302989 115910.40 48036.200 1603199 8590657 2965715.000 129863.8 303981.66 13964.984 1275.000 179200.00 1931549 138227.400 177226.74 102775465
Nigeria 1994 6902000 3000.00 8912902.60 717578 13321 17596.0 49294.00 619507.1 2095731 79847.00 68756.800 1767591 8813961 1834718.600 129863.8 247981.66 15267.896 1410.000 192000.00 1829442 200766.000 159626.74 105456121
Nigeria 1995 6931000 3000.00 5914017.60 600000 181013 17596.0 53007.42 71529.0 1804300 62272.60 95551.400 1738776 9762613 1087705.600 129863.8 326282.34 20607.492 1697.800 204800.00 1965882 240128.400 56858.55 108187610
Nigeria 1996 5667000 3000.00 20246342.60 26400 189208 20198.4 54937.48 962688.3 1195050 149400.00 1153.000 1874197 8382314 4517511.800 133689.0 312564.00 8022.714 776.000 215485.00 1890979 48683.800 279646.00 110956183
Nigeria 1997 5254000 3000.00 17443891.20 28500 183456 20898.4 65522.00 562507.1 940212 139763.80 28632.000 1829767 8424782 3933866.400 133689.0 384945.66 12551.018 1082.600 229190.00 2075342 83644.200 200026.74 113791181
Nigeria 1998 5127000 3000.00 5488503.49 30940 185376 24782.6 68380.00 45856.0 714257 64518.60 262819.446 1702489 10475473 1473093.800 122245.6 80392.80 4929.492 131320.400 248075.00 2086422 142099.000 380475.00 116690527
Nigeria 1999 5476000 3000.00 261166.77 36765 201056 24782.6 58248.80 96868.6 780917 4862.20 302514.940 1805623 10543062 305451.800 122245.6 45124.00 8622.200 95963.600 269162.00 2204631 238016.400 290889.40 119695565
Nigeria 2000 4107000 3000.00 11286.69 56008 200544 17020.4 57700.00 59376.0 765502 78082.00 516766.046 1836757 10987354 387033.000 159260.0 64216.80 94599.200 388409.400 288811.00 1967375 135495.200 458526.20 122851984
Nigeria 2001 4596000 3000.00 11286.69 68976 214545 17020.4 67535.00 59376.0 664272 78082.00 516766.046 1749957 10883314 387033.000 159260.0 64216.80 94599.200 388409.400 310471.00 1826958 135495.200 458526.20 126152678
Nigeria 2002 4890000 3000.00 11286.69 78446 207578 17020.4 65054.99 59376.0 712483 78082.00 516766.046 1813346 11077465 387033.000 159260.0 64216.80 94599.200 388409.400 335682.00 2092247 135495.200 458526.20 129583026
Nigeria 2003 5203000 3000.00 11286.69 87535 207746 17020.4 67955.64 59376.0 688560 78082.00 516766.046 1791599 12233962 387033.000 159260.0 64216.80 94599.200 388409.400 366683.00 2158711 135495.200 458526.20 133119801
Nigeria 2004 5567000 3000.00 15091.60 123200 208183 1245.4 64158.29 96920.0 577517 210541.40 1346300.000 1754364 13513198 698958.600 254381.0 72998.80 290494.800 939762.200 399230.00 2113987 208428.540 528890.20 136756848
Nigeria 2005 5957000 3000.00 15091.60 115300 221606 1245.4 76881.30 96920.0 533638 210541.40 1346300.000 1694376 14096500 698958.600 254381.0 72998.80 290494.800 939762.200 426285.00 2213298 208428.540 528890.20 140490722
Nigeria 2006 7100000 3000.00 15091.60 163000 251099 1245.4 89503.44 96920.0 542169 210541.40 1346300.000 1917824 14114983 698958.600 254381.0 72998.80 290494.800 939762.200 449907.00 2173384 208428.540 528890.20 144329764
Nigeria 2007 6724000 3000.00 2612.40 124000 237677 21340.0 95638.82 977221.6 664911 28515674.80 332.166 1726962 2949878 125540.400 147130.6 1383795.08 4390.400 128330.732 468647.00 2327747 4460.056 27534.00 148294028
Nigeria 2008 7525000 3000.00 2612.40 152000 199585 21340.0 86745.98 977221.6 573445 28515674.80 332.166 1806096 2335862 125540.400 176125.6 1383795.08 4390.400 128330.732 489917.00 2328312 4460.056 27534.00 152382506
Nigeria 2009 7358260 3000.00 2612.40 235000 217322 21340.0 85239.51 977221.6 501705 28515674.80 332.166 1658852 3114219 125540.400 147130.6 1383795.08 4390.400 128330.732 551704.00 2501319 4460.056 27534.00 156595758
Nigeria 2010 7676850 3000.00 2612.40 269000 211010 21340.0 1656330.00 977221.6 621871 30457643.60 332.166 1854673 3174862 151220.400 147130.6 673654.72 5727.200 128330.732 672641.00 2428772 4460.056 26294.60 160952853
Nigeria 2011 8878456 3000.00 377228.40 263000 240633 17337.6 1258381.00 430560.8 575347 32185891.80 3674819.736 1782262 3290438 162190.400 140325.6 18387.12 6722.000 55547.916 672893.00 2506747 104279.178 26281.00 165463745
Nigeria 2012 8694900 2260.00 377228.40 289000 245780 17337.6 1279937.00 430560.8 530796 32185891.80 3674819.736 1620862 3751621 162190.400 113716.2 18387.12 6722.000 55547.916 627449.00 2305092 104279.178 26281.00 170075932
Nigeria 2013 8422670 3050.21 329738.00 312000 222910 17337.6 1332081.00 580860.8 594724 32185891.80 133731.008 1613506 3505939 162190.400 114530.6 18387.12 6722.000 79525.836 611032.00 2701870 105117.178 26281.00 174726123
Nigeria 2014 10790600 3051.35 431157.60 165000 255741 8755.8 1597985.00 52884.8 387370 7689110.60 7511625.294 1605964 3561096 142490.400 35890.0 17310.88 65427.000 1324.600 750427.00 2611741 200859.318 4758779.60 179379016
Nigeria 2015 9540190 3052.49 554370.99 231000 266459 14773.4 1517653.00 173755.0 503340 30261755.60 3739090.172 1581315 4200360 136030.400 87857.0 17310.88 65465.200 28071.484 857947.00 2483906 180631.318 4757674.20 183995785
Nigeria 2016 10532340 3053.64 559381.39 218000 291296 8755.8 2112941.00 32260.8 631092 7689110.60 3801159.106 1687095 3464433 142490.400 35890.0 17310.88 65427.000 763.000 898495.00 2492717 278118.058 4758779.60 188666931
Nigeria 2017 10632299 3054.78 559381.39 142000 285714 8755.8 2522139.00 32260.8 770322 7689110.60 3801159.106 1748724 3763855 142490.400 35890.0 17310.88 65427.000 763.000 1040029.00 2652921 278118.058 4758779.60 193495907
Nigeria 2018 10934149 3055.92 431157.60 176000 320194 8755.8 2924638.00 52884.8 843520 7689110.60 7511625.294 1632433 4461470 142490.400 35075.6 17310.88 65427.000 1324.600 1126008.00 2639903 200859.318 4758779.60 198387623
Nigeria 2019 12598945 3057.97 1339345.00 157000 332494 2586.2 2556224.00 55536.0 890940 5980698.60 10328099.000 1825735 4155032 127150.400 4090.0 16625.28 100532.400 27101.102 1283867.00 2548614 80609.488 9555769.20 203304492
Nigeria 2020 12400000 3029.15 479049.60 79000 321301 2586.2 2631779.00 56322.6 933520 5980698.60 10401111.800 1900 4285463 127150.400 4090.0 16625.28 100532.400 1989.600 1264366.00 2709354 102425.978 9555769.20 208327405
Nigeria 2021 12745000 2900.00 1339345.00 199000 337526 2586.2 2353314.00 55536.0 1029840 3622551.40 10328099.000 1850 4232763 89480.000 4090.0 14127.88 136133.800 27101.102 1441905.00 2873672 80609.488 15887655.60 213401323

Challenges and Sustainability Issues

The decline in rice production despite population growth underscores several critical challenges:

  1. Infrastructure Deficiencies: Inadequate irrigation systems, storage facilities, and transportation networks have hindered agricultural productivity.

  2. Policy Inconsistencies: Fluctuating government policies and insufficient support for farmers have impacted long-term planning and investment in the sector.

  3. Environmental Pressures: Deforestation, soil degradation, and climate change have posed additional threats to sustainable agriculture.

  4. Market Dynamics: Competition from imported rice and price volatility have affected local production incentives.

Linear Modeling and Significance Testing

A linear regression model was fitted to quantify the relationship between rice production and population growth:

  • Regression Model: Rice Production ~ Population

  • Coefficient Estimations: The model revealed a highly significant relationship (p-value = 0.00281, less than 5%) between rice production and population growth.

    
    Call:
    lm(formula = Rice..Production...tonnes. ~ Population_times_10000, 
        data = food4)
    
    Residuals:
        Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
    -4761.2 -2493.5  -523.9  1072.3 12263.7 
    
    Coefficients:
                             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
    (Intercept)            7185.38619 1106.37077   6.495 1.93e-08 ***
    Population_times_10000   -0.29024    0.09308  -3.118  0.00281 ** 
    ---
    Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
    
    Residual standard error: 3569 on 59 degrees of freedom
    Multiple R-squared:  0.1415,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.1269 
    F-statistic: 9.723 on 1 and 59 DF,  p-value: 0.002813

Conclusion

The analysis underscores the critical interplay between rice production and population growth in Nigeria. Despite historical peaks in production, the sector has faced challenges leading to a decline over the years. Concurrently, population growth has continued unabated, exerting pressure on agricultural resources and necessitating sustainable strategies for food security.

Moving forward, addressing infrastructure gaps, enhancing agricultural productivity through technological innovations, and implementing supportive policies will be crucial. By doing so, Nigeria can navigate the complexities posed by population growth and achieve sustainable rice production, ensuring food sufficiency and economic resilience in the years to come.