Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update
Introduction
We have updated data and forecasts for Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Azerbaijan.
In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.
We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.
MLP Website: here
PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)
Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here
Benin
For Benin, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Legal Actions in April and May: A significant case of energy theft involving the Beninese Society of Electric Energy was brought before the Court of Suppression of Economic Offences and Terrorism. Meanwhile, the sentencing of three Republican police officers for raping a citizen has intensified concerns over public trust in law enforcement. Additionally, the theft of 1.7 billion CFA francs from Benin Terminal and a legal case involving a parliamentarian accused of money laundering documented serious corruption and financial crimes. There was also a trial of 42 individuals arrested amid electoral violence during the 2021 presidential elections. The trial and sentencing of four officials from the Benin Oil Company (SHB) documented corruption within its state-owned enterprises. Additionally, a former Deputy Commissioner of Justice was sentenced to seven years in prison for misappropriating funds. Another notable legal proceeding involved the sentencing of individuals arrested during a workers’ march, drawing attention to the legal framework surrounding public demonstrations.
Legal Changes in March: The Beninese parliament adopted a new Electoral Code, which was subsequently validated by the Constitutional Court, marking a major shift in the country’s electoral processes by introducing requirements for political party participation and establishing thresholds for seat allocation in elections. Additionally, a proposal to amend the Constitution was rejected by the parliament.
Security Mobilization in April: Military personnel were deployed to Tchaourou municipality, raising concerns among the populace and legislators about national defense or internal security.
Protests in April and May: A series of protests indicate widespread discontent with the current economic and governance conditions. Trade unions and confederations organized a march against the high cost of living, which was met with police resistance and the arrest of several protesters, including union leaders. The unions have planned further demonstrations, while other groups, including the Democratic Party and youth movements, have also expressed their opposition through planned marches and initiatives like “Thursdays in Black.” Protests extended beyond economic issues, with a march organized by the community of Tanguiéta demanding clarity on unsolved murders, and various groups condemning the government’s detention of protesters from a repressed march on May 1, 2024.
Purge/Replace in April: In a series of significant governance and disciplinary actions in Benin, President Patrice Talon dismissed high-level officials including his Special Adviser Johannes Dagnon and the former Chief of the General Staff of the Beninese Navy, Jean Léon Olatoundji. Additionally, public officials involved in excessive law enforcement and controversial expropriations were disciplined.
Non-lethal Violence in April: A series of security challenges were reported, including an attack on a customs post in Malanville by an unidentified armed group, which was met with a defensive response that left at least one attacker injured. A disturbing rise in kidnappings was reported, with over 200 incidents reported in the north, highlighting the influence of violent extremist groups. Additionally, there are concerns regarding police conduct, as incidents of police violence against civilians have been noted.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Burkina Faso
For Burkina Faso, our data includes coverage through the end of May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in May: Significant NGO-led and community efforts were made to address the humanitarian crisis, improving health, educational infrastructure, and sanitary conditions as well as reconstructing livelihoods amid insecurity. Noteworthy events include the transfer of health and educational infrastructure in Kaya by Help Burkina, the evaluation of the “Protection, Health and Cash Assistance for the Most Vulnerable Populations of Burkina” project in Fada by the International Rescue Committee and Tin Tua, and the donation of toilet cabins to a department high school in Thyou by Suppress the Margin. Additionally, SOLIDEV initiated the “Yools-Taaba” project aimed at aiding displaced and host communities in the northern region.
Censorship in April: The government suspended TV5 programs and blocked access to multiple international news websites indefinitely, including major outlets such as TV5 Monde, Deutsche Welle, West-France, Le Monde.fr, ApaNews, The Guardian, and AgenceEcofin, marking a considerable infringement on freedom of expression. Additionally, the temporary suspension of BBC/Africa and Voice of America programs by the Superior Council of Communication underscores the authorities’ intent to limit scrutiny and public awareness of the military’s conduct.
Defamation Cases in March and May: A defamation lawsuit captured national attention as a well-known writer and philosophy professor was brought to court by a major labor union and its leader over Facebook posts critiquing a union meeting. Professor Siguiré faced legal action from both the General Confederation of Labour of Burkina Faso and its Secretary General, Moussa Diallo, and the newspaper L-Événement, leading to his sentencing to 12 months in prison and a fine.
Legal Actions in March: An individual accused of threatening state security was arrested and later released, and a military officer’s plea for provisional release on charges related to national stability was rejected. Additionally, the Ouagadougou Court of Appeal made a notable financial ruling affecting local governance, and the Administrative Court ordered the release of individuals linked to civil liberties petitions.
Purge/Replace in April: The expulsion of three French diplomats underscores a deteriorating relationship between Burkina Faso and France, delineating a decisive shift in the country’s external diplomatic engagements. Internally, the dismissal of a captain from the National Armed Forces and three teacher-researchers, alongside a university assistant, signal an intent to consolidate control and align various sectors with governmental policies and expectations.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Cameroon
For Cameroon, our data includes coverage through May 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of March 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Censorship in April and May: The government banned the import of Starlink kits, limiting access to reliable internet and affecting the free flow of information. Human Rights Watch condemned a government prohibition against opposition coalitions. Furthermore, the trial of a journalist’s assassination and the denial of its live transmission raised concerns about transparency in the judiciary. Additionally, a broadcast on Équinoxe TV discussing political change revealed the media’s cautious approach to sensitive topics, reflecting a landscape of subtle censorship. Media outlets faced suspensions and warnings by the media regulator for not adhering to professional ethics. Political activities and expressions, particularly those of the Cameroonian Party for National Reconciliation and the Movement for the Renaissance of Cameroon, were also targeted through bans. Furthermore, individuals critical of football federation policies and governmental health initiatives faced punitive measures, including suspension from football-related activities and social media account deactivation.
Legal Changes in March: A significant revision of the Electoral Code was proposed. The government also instituted a new requirement mandating senior officials to obtain prior authorization for international travel to reduce state expenditures. Additionally, a prohibition was issued against certain political movements. Furthermore, the rejection of a change in the electoral calendar by the Movement for the Renaissance of Cameroon indicated a discord with the government’s approach to scheduling electionsn.
Security Mobilization in April: The National Gendarmerie beefed up security operations in Yaoundé, especially targeting areas known for high criminal activities, in anticipation of important national festivities such as Labour Day and the Unity Day on May 20. Additionally, to counter unrest in the South-West region, a special military operation was launched in Akwaya after weeks of tension, while efforts to curb urban disorder led to a crackdown on motorcycle taxis in the city center, resulting in over 100 motorcycles being impounded.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Zambia
For Zambia, our data includes coverage through April 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of November 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Censorship in March: Instances of parliamentary censorship were evident when the Speaker of the National Assembly ruled a discussion on mealie meal prices out of order over a former president’s statement, and a PF Whip highlighted the censorship facing PF members in the National Assembly when trying to express their viewpoints.
Corruption in February: The former Zambia Air Force commander is facing forfeiture proceedings for properties valued at over K91 million, marked as proceeds of crime. Similarly, a former Ministry of Health permanent secretary and others denied charges tied to the mismanagement in ambulance procurement. Moreover, the Zambia Revenue Authority uncovered a major tax evasion scheme by a mining company. Cases of property purchase with illicit funds by law enforcement officials, including a former Deputy Inspector General of Police and a senior accountant at police headquarters, further underscore the prevalence of corruption within both the public service and law enforcement sectors.
Defamation Cases in February and March: A significant lawsuit involved a former Bank of Zambia governor suing a Member of Parliament for defamation, demanding substantial compensation for character damage related to a social media post. Other cases included defamation charges against individuals for insulting the President and interpersonal disputes leading to court-ordered compensations. The Lungu Royal Establishment sued Zesco Limited Company for a substantial sum, alleging defamation against a senior chief. High-profile individuals, including the Deputy Inspector General of Police and the former president’s special assistant, were also embroiled in defamation lawsuits.
Disaster in March: The country is grappling with its worst drought in a century, an event declared a national disaster by the President, affecting over six million people with acute food shortages and risks to the electricity supply and agriculture sectors. Concurrently, health officials are battling a significant choleral outbreak, recording over 20,000 cases and nearly 700 deaths, further strained by the drought. Additionally, the nation has faced incidents of public health and safety concern, including a mysterious eye disease outbreak in the Northern and Eastern provinces and fatalities due to the consumption of counterfeit beer in Lusaka, alongside deaths of illegal miners at a copper mine.
Legal Actions in February and March: A former Deputy Inspector General of Police was sentenced to three years in prison. A Member of Parliament faced lawsuits for defamation and disputes within his party, alongside legal challenges from other notable figures alleging corruption and misuse of office, including a former Mines Minister and a high-ranking military official. The Lusaka High Court dismissed a lawsuit demanding facilitation fees by a former province minister, while another court allowed the initiation of contempt proceedings against a political faction chairperson. Additionally, wrongful prosecution and the fight against corruption were highlighted through the acquittal of two individuals wrongfully accused of gassing charges and the upholding of a jail sentence for former Zampost executives for theft.
Legal Changes in March: The Independent Broadcasting Authority announced its intention to regulate online media, including podcasts, to ensure that content meets national standards, despite facing criticism for potentially infringing on freedom of speech. Additionally, to mitigate a local shortfall, the government approved the suspension of duty on the importation of wheat, aiming to maintain the commodity’s affordability. In response to rising gun violence, amendments to the Firearms Act were initiated, halting the issuance of firearm licenses and prioritizing mental health evaluations. Moreover, a new statutory instrument was implemented to quicken the resolution of financial crimes. Lastly, the exportation of soya bean meal and cake was banned.
Protests in February: Truck drivers in the country announced an indefinite strike starting March 1, 2024, to address poor working conditions and demand broader interests. Teachers also voiced their concerns by marching in Lusaka on International Teacher’s Day in 2018, calling attention to corruption in the teacher recruitment process and the need for qualified educators. Additionally, political friction manifested when PF sympathizers protested against the police’s heavy-handed tactics, demanding the release of a political faction leader, which ended in the use of teargas by the authorities.
Non-lethal Violence in April: The Human Rights Commission condemned the torture of a woman by police in Mpongwe District, pointing to severe misconduct. Additionally, a violent confrontation at the University of Zambia/Evelyn Hone College and multiple episodes involving shootings and attacks on innocent bystanders and students in Lusaka have highlighted the issues of public safety, police brutality, and the growing concern of violent crimes within the community.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Zimbabwe
For Zimbabwe, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in February: Over 16,000 individuals signed a petition calling for the arrest of Uebert Madzanire for his involvement in a money laundering and gold smuggling scheme. Additionally, villagers in Masvingo and Chipinge provinces, with the support of Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights, challenged state-sanctioned evictions. Moreover, localized efforts, such as a fundraising show in Tshabalala suburb for underprivileged students’ education and a petition against environmental pollution in Hwange, showcased the community’s initiatives towards advocating for educational equity and environmental conservation.
Censorship in February and March: The closure of The NewsHawks, an investigative online newspaper, due to threats and intimidation from military and state actors, marks a significant blow to press freedom and investigative journalism. Simultaneously, the barring of media and security personnel from Gukurahundi hearings by the National Chiefs Council has raised concerns over transparency in addressing historical atrocities. The Zimbabwe Media Commission imposed a restrictive “Gukurahundi Code of Conduct Pledge” that censors reporting on the Gukurahundi massacres. The government’s reluctance to license the new internet service provider, Starlink, hints at potential control measures over internet access. Furthermore, the Ministry of Information’s efforts to license more community radio stations contrast the restricted media landscape.
Corruption in March: The United States imposed new sanctions on high-level officials, including the President, for corruption related to the smuggling of gold and diamonds, along with human rights abuses. Furthermore, cases of individual corruption have surfaced, involving former government officials and other individuals in fraudulent activities ranging from fuel smuggling to misappropriating agricultural inputs and demanding bribes.
Defamation Cases in March: The High Court addressed a defamation suit involving a public spat between two professionals over qualifications and personal attacks. Concurrently, a former sports coach’s appeal against his conviction for indecent assault was dismissed, upholding the initial ruling based on credible evidence. Additionally, cases involving perceived insults against the President and alleged defamation by a social media activist against the Grain Millers Association underscore the consequences of verbal and digital expressions in the country.
Disaster in January: The nation has been grappling with a series of distressing events including an extensive cholera outbreak that has spread to 58 districts, resulting in over 200 deaths and more than 16,000 individuals treated. Additionally, a mine shaft collapse at Redwing Mine in Penhalonga has caused fear of multiple fatalities among artisanal miners. Furthermore, an El Niño-induced drought has precipitated significant food shortages, affecting millions and prompting international assistance to support 2. 7 million rural people.
Legal Changes in February: The abolition of the death penalty represented a major shift towards human rights preservation. Concurrently, Zimbabwe introduced an energy efficiency policy aimed to mitigate consistent power shortages and promote sustainable energy use. In education, the implementation of the Zimbabwe Early Learning Policy highlighted a commitment to improving educational standards through mandatory early childhood education. Economic reforms were also underway, as the government worked to stabilize the Zimbabwean dollar by linking it to hard assets and restructuring the currency system, while adjusting trade policies by reinstating import duties on basic goods to protect local industries, despite concerns over market stability and access to essentials.
Purge/Replace in February and March: The sacking of a high-level minister for alleged insubordination, along with the suspension of a secretary-general in the main opposition party, indicates notable political tensions. Additionally, the firing of senior military commanders involved in a corruption scandal, coupled with actions against corruption in both the Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation and the Harale City Council, reflects an ongoing struggle against corruption. The appointment of a new Minister of Veterans of the Liberation Struggle Affairs, changes in media leadership at the Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation, a turnover in the command of the Airforce of Zimbabwe, a new chairperson at the Zimbabwe Anti-Corruption Commission, and an early retirement of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe governor, all signify considerable adjustments.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Azerbaijan
For Azerbaijan, our data includes coverage through April 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Security Mobilization in April: Tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia have escalated as both nations mobilized troops and combat vehicles along their conditional border. Concurrently, the withdrawal of Russian peacekeeping forces from the Karabakh region, following Armenia’s recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, marks a pivotal shift in the area’s security dynamics. In a move towards de-escalation, however, Azerbaijan and Armenia have agreed to simultaneously deploy their border services in specific parts of their borderline.
Protests in April: Recent events included a significant protest by the Milli Majlis against a European Parliament resolution accusing the country of human rights violations. Additionally, the family of a Karabach separatist initiated a hunger strike while imprisoned in Baku, highlighting ongoing tensions and human rights concerns related to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Purge/Replace in February: Following the inauguration of President Ilham Aliev in Azerbaijan, a significant governmental reshuffle occurred, leading to the resignation of the entire Cabinet of Ministers. This included high-profile officials such as the head of the Ministry of Justice and the Chairman of the State Committee on Religious Organizations. The President quickly approved a new composition for the Cabinet, indicating a substantial transformation in the country’s government structure and leadership.
Raids in March: Law enforcement agencies conducted a series of raids that led to the arrest of dozens of journalists and activists, aiming to suppress dissent and manage civil unrest. Additional operations in Khankandi resulted in the confiscation of weapons and ammunition from various locations, including a secondary school, underscoring the government’s determination to disarm separatists. Furthermore, the demolition of an illegally constructed building in Hankendi, once claimed by Armenian separatists as a “Parliament,” reflected the state’s effort to eradicate symbols of separatist presence and restore order in areas marked by previous conflicts.
Forecasting
Our standard models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.