## Corrected Zc new P-value
## 7.4251181901928537954 0.0000000000001126793
## N/N* Original Z
## 84.7254781944381534231 68.3455724331707727970
## old P.value Tau
## 0.0000000000000000000 0.3664793433848033688
## Sen's slope old.variance
## 0.0001230563042762353 410688326923.3333129882812500000
## new.variance
## 34795764887453.1640625000000000000
##
## Call:
## lm(formula = ano_day ~ decimal_date(t), data = rdg)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -4.0444 -0.5895 -0.0472 0.5621 4.2374
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) -89.2313906 1.2861764 -69.38 <0.0000000000000002 ***
## decimal_date(t) 0.0445490 0.0006421 69.38 <0.0000000000000002 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 0.9639 on 15334 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.2389, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2389
## F-statistic: 4813 on 1 and 15334 DF, p-value: < 0.00000000000000022
##
## Call:
## lm(formula = ano_day ~ decimal_date(t), data = filter(rdg, year >=
## 1995))
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -3.8135 -0.5914 -0.0719 0.5542 4.3922
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) -126.386137 2.216094 -57.03 <0.0000000000000002 ***
## decimal_date(t) 0.063017 0.001103 57.14 <0.0000000000000002 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 0.9497 on 10586 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.2357, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2357
## F-statistic: 3265 on 1 and 10586 DF, p-value: < 0.00000000000000022
| Année | Nombre | Durée moyenne (jours) | Durée maximale | Moyenne IM | Moyenne des IMax | IMax | Moyenne des VarI | Moyenne des IC | Taux de croissance (°C/j) | Taux de déclin (°C/j) | Nombre de jours total | Intensité cumulée totale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1982 | 3 | 6.666667 | 8 | 2.019300 | 2.425367 | 2.7486 | 0.2608667 | 13.32773 | 0.2310667 | 0.3373667 | 20 | 39.9832 |
| 1983 | 2 | 6.000000 | 7 | 1.206550 | 1.446850 | 1.9287 | 0.2182500 | 7.63180 | 0.3870000 | 0.2369500 | 12 | 15.2636 |
| 1984 | 1 | 6.000000 | 6 | 2.006300 | 2.263300 | 2.2633 | 0.2226000 | 12.03770 | 0.2731000 | 0.3629000 | 6 | 12.0377 |
| 1985 | 1 | 13.000000 | 13 | 1.776700 | 2.311500 | 2.3115 | 0.3036000 | 23.09700 | 0.0759000 | 0.3821000 | 13 | 23.0970 |
| 1986 | 1 | 13.000000 | 13 | 2.355200 | 2.907800 | 2.9078 | 0.3912000 | 30.61760 | 0.1426000 | 0.3623000 | 13 | 30.6176 |
| 1987 | 1 | 12.000000 | 12 | 1.985000 | 2.146800 | 2.1468 | 0.1860000 | 23.81970 | 0.0842000 | 0.1078000 | 12 | 23.8197 |
| 1988 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 1989 | 1 | 8.000000 | 8 | 1.487000 | 1.787000 | 1.7870 | 0.2077000 | 11.89570 | 0.1686000 | 0.1576000 | 8 | 11.8957 |
| 1990 | 3 | 18.666667 | 39 | 1.421400 | 1.672700 | 2.3784 | 0.1872667 | 21.33513 | 0.0708000 | 0.2933000 | 56 | 64.0054 |
| 1991 | 2 | 7.000000 | 8 | 1.372000 | 1.801450 | 1.8115 | 0.2483000 | 9.71180 | 0.1659500 | 1.0342500 | 14 | 19.4236 |
| 1992 | 1 | 5.000000 | 5 | 1.803800 | 1.958600 | 1.9586 | 0.1227000 | 9.01920 | 0.3703000 | 0.1391000 | 5 | 9.0192 |
| 1993 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 1994 | 2 | 9.000000 | 10 | 1.917500 | 2.135750 | 2.3375 | 0.1537500 | 17.48360 | 0.2283500 | 0.0966500 | 18 | 34.9672 |
| 1995 | 1 | 7.000000 | 7 | 1.940100 | 2.144600 | 2.1446 | 0.1496000 | 13.58060 | 0.2402000 | 0.0871000 | 7 | 13.5806 |
| 1996 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 1997 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 1998 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 1999 | 2 | 6.000000 | 7 | 1.671750 | 1.891900 | 1.9616 | 0.1782000 | 10.13065 | 0.1779000 | 0.2049500 | 12 | 20.2613 |
| 2000 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 2001 | 2 | 7.500000 | 8 | 1.153150 | 1.312400 | 1.7232 | 0.1140500 | 8.82875 | 0.1047500 | 0.2286500 | 15 | 17.6575 |
| 2002 | 2 | 10.000000 | 10 | 2.136650 | 2.693350 | 3.7438 | 0.3453500 | 21.36605 | 0.1899000 | 0.2927000 | 20 | 42.7321 |
| 2003 | 2 | 33.000000 | 39 | 3.135900 | 4.024200 | 4.6770 | 0.5784500 | 100.35220 | 0.1199500 | 0.2953000 | 66 | 200.7044 |
| 2004 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 2005 | 3 | 9.000000 | 12 | 2.165667 | 2.555900 | 3.6284 | 0.2688333 | 20.69913 | 0.1371333 | 0.3206000 | 27 | 62.0974 |
| 2006 | 8 | 11.375000 | 25 | 1.864800 | 2.240975 | 4.0284 | 0.2566375 | 22.15974 | 0.2768250 | 0.1832250 | 91 | 177.2779 |
| 2007 | 4 | 14.250000 | 31 | 1.644150 | 2.146700 | 3.2684 | 0.3350000 | 27.23355 | 0.1935500 | 0.2740500 | 57 | 108.9342 |
| 2008 | 1 | 10.000000 | 10 | 2.775500 | 3.356900 | 3.3569 | 0.3336000 | 27.75470 | 0.2665000 | 0.2166000 | 10 | 27.7547 |
| 2009 | 3 | 23.000000 | 39 | 2.187533 | 3.161400 | 3.6789 | 0.4755667 | 45.39343 | 0.3077667 | 0.2911333 | 69 | 136.1803 |
| 2010 | 1 | 24.000000 | 24 | 3.027800 | 4.295200 | 4.2952 | 0.4991000 | 72.66830 | 0.2059000 | 0.1643000 | 24 | 72.6683 |
| 2011 | 8 | 12.125000 | 27 | 2.055063 | 2.611175 | 3.4178 | 0.4209125 | 23.37836 | 0.2155250 | 0.4202625 | 97 | 187.0269 |
| 2012 | 7 | 12.285714 | 25 | 1.893700 | 2.384357 | 4.0164 | 0.3455714 | 21.83336 | 0.2506571 | 0.2757571 | 86 | 152.8335 |
| 2013 | 4 | 8.000000 | 10 | 1.699275 | 2.000975 | 2.5124 | 0.1913750 | 13.42950 | 0.1024750 | 0.3813500 | 32 | 53.7180 |
| 2014 | 6 | 31.000000 | 63 | 1.904450 | 2.452800 | 4.4106 | 0.3340000 | 58.44450 | 0.3714167 | 0.1685833 | 186 | 350.6670 |
| 2015 | 8 | 15.000000 | 30 | 2.096975 | 2.878137 | 5.0584 | 0.3998250 | 31.55809 | 0.2740375 | 0.4361000 | 120 | 252.4647 |
| 2016 | 5 | 17.600000 | 49 | 1.750600 | 2.281280 | 3.4775 | 0.3072600 | 33.70274 | 0.1411400 | 0.2819200 | 88 | 168.5137 |
| 2017 | 7 | 14.714286 | 43 | 1.879486 | 2.614871 | 5.1752 | 0.4286000 | 29.39341 | 0.2231857 | 0.2704000 | 103 | 205.7539 |
| 2018 | 6 | 37.500000 | 120 | 2.123400 | 2.886633 | 4.3012 | 0.4511000 | 85.34360 | 0.1598500 | 0.1798167 | 225 | 512.0616 |
| 2019 | 8 | 22.500000 | 57 | 1.928600 | 2.501362 | 5.4016 | 0.3466000 | 42.79745 | 0.1813000 | 0.1590375 | 180 | 342.3796 |
| 2020 | 8 | 17.375000 | 35 | 1.696962 | 2.121412 | 3.1471 | 0.2411125 | 30.37866 | 0.1712125 | 0.1600875 | 139 | 243.0293 |
| 2021 | 6 | 12.833333 | 19 | 1.632267 | 2.076417 | 3.5870 | 0.2761667 | 23.43730 | 0.1618167 | 0.1592333 | 77 | 140.6238 |
| 2022 | 3 | 96.000000 | 133 | 2.009100 | 2.808267 | 4.6376 | 0.4047333 | 223.24343 | 0.0366333 | 0.0310667 | 288 | 669.7303 |
| 2023 | 8 | 23.375000 | 42 | 1.795012 | 2.392587 | 4.1183 | 0.3444250 | 49.73246 | 0.1369125 | 0.0705375 | 187 | 397.8597 |
| 2024 | 2 | 38.000000 | 40 | 1.309150 | 2.277800 | 3.2135 | 0.3993500 | 50.32425 | 0.0700000 | 0.1511000 | 76 | 100.6485 |
| Mesures | Theil-Sen (pente) | T-S (p-val) | Point de rupture | Pettitt (p-val) | Theil-Sen (avant) | p-val (avant) | Theil-Sen (après) | p-val (après) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nombre de jours de vague de chaleur par an | 3.3928571 | 0.0000003 | 2004 | 0.0000077 | -0.1250000 | 0.4199534 | 8.3636364 | 0.0009747 |
| Nombre d’évènements par an | 0.2000000 | 0.0000034 | 2004 | 0.0000162 | 0.0000000 | 0.4401483 | 0.4000000 | 0.0053619 |
| Moyenne des IM (°C) | 0.0452354 | 0.0000000 | 2002 | 0.0000006 | 0.0103043 | 0.3811873 | 0.0526577 | 0.0006577 |
| Moyenne des IMax (°C) | 0.0478887 | 0.0000004 | 2001 | 0.0000034 | -0.0165967 | 0.2561450 | 0.0567108 | 0.0121987 |
| IC annuelle (°C.j) | 16.5327267 | 0.0000000 | 2002 | 0.0000006 | 3.7785299 | 0.3811873 | 19.2213311 | 0.0005175 |
Pour calculer la climatologie, on utilise ici des données satellitaires (de 1982 à 2012), mais la détection d’évènements se fait sur les données issues de la bouée EOL uniquement. Note: si on choisit comme période de référence pour calculer la climatologie (toujours à partir des données satellitaires) la même période que pour les données EOL seules (2014-2024), on obtient sensiblement les mêmes résultats qu’en la calculant avec les données EOL. Pour ces dernières, on utilise une moyenne de toutes les valeurs de la journée. Le point utilisé comme référence est au large de Villefranche (c’est le centre du pixel de 0.25x0.25° qui contient la rade, situé à 43.625°N, 7.375°E)
| Année | Nombre | Durée moyenne (j) | Moyenne IM (°C) | Moyenne des IMax (°C) | Moyenne des IC (°C.j) | Nombre de jours total (j) | Intensité cumulée totale (°C.j) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 4 | 38.25000 | 2.026850 | 2.727000 | 82.91030 | 153 | 331.6412 |
| 2015 | 9 | 13.55556 | 1.958767 | 2.426256 | 30.13709 | 122 | 271.2338 |
| 2016 | 8 | 15.50000 | 1.601550 | 1.924338 | 27.88276 | 124 | 223.0621 |
| 2017 | 10 | 12.90000 | 1.883910 | 2.506460 | 26.36788 | 129 | 263.6788 |
| 2018 | 4 | 61.25000 | 2.325975 | 3.158725 | 148.58378 | 245 | 594.3351 |
| 2019 | 3 | 86.00000 | 1.539933 | 2.769400 | 171.35583 | 258 | 514.0675 |
| 2020 | 6 | 20.33333 | 1.852250 | 2.348867 | 44.06693 | 122 | 264.4016 |
| 2021 | 8 | 26.25000 | 1.611600 | 1.967912 | 39.11744 | 210 | 312.9395 |
| 2022 | 2 | 81.50000 | 2.944800 | 3.934050 | 277.52310 | 163 | 555.0462 |
| 2023 | 6 | 35.66667 | 2.244033 | 3.050800 | 75.36787 | 214 | 452.2072 |
Ici, la climatologie est calculée à partir des données EOL seules (à partir de 2014).
| Année | Nombre | Durée moyenne (j) | Moyenne IM (°C) | Moyenne des IMax (°C) | Moyenne des IC (°C.j) | Nombre de jours total (j) | Intensité cumulée totale (°C.j) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 3 | 35.33333 | 1.19890 | 1.477033 | 40.86373 | 106 | 122.5912 |
| 2015 | 1 | 5.00000 | 2.25770 | 2.405800 | 11.28850 | 5 | 11.2885 |
| 2016 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 2017 | 1 | 6.00000 | 2.20880 | 2.429700 | 13.25270 | 6 | 13.2527 |
| 2018 | 3 | 8.00000 | 1.41810 | 1.636633 | 11.89370 | 24 | 35.6811 |
| 2019 | 2 | 8.00000 | 2.04240 | 2.553750 | 17.11225 | 16 | 34.2245 |
| 2020 | 1 | 8.00000 | 0.45860 | 0.637200 | 3.66880 | 8 | 3.6688 |
| 2021 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 2022 | 5 | 18.80000 | 1.99270 | 2.593520 | 38.77490 | 94 | 193.8745 |
| 2023 | 2 | 9.50000 | 1.81235 | 2.079950 | 16.27585 | 19 | 32.5517 |
Ces graphiques montrent, par profondeur (de 5 à 80m), l’évènement le plus important sur toute la période d’échantillonnage (de mai 1995 à avril 2023) d’après trois critères : celui qui contient le pic d’anomalie (l’intensité maximale) le plus élevé, le plus long, et celui dont l’intensité cumulée (au dessus du seuil, sur tout l’évènement) est la plus importante (en °C.j).
| year | count | duration | duration_max | intensity_mean | intensity_max | intensity_max_max | intensity_var | intensity_cumulative | rate_onset | rate_decline | total_days | total_icum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1992 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 1993 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 1994 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 1995 | 2 | 12.500000 | 16 | 1.3869500 | 1.784650 | 2.5758 | 0.2738000 | 18.929000 | 0.0871000 | 0.1516500 | 25 | 37.8580 |
| 1996 | 3 | 12.333333 | 17 | 2.2039333 | 3.570100 | 4.3704 | 0.8069667 | 26.452933 | 0.6161333 | 0.3740000 | 37 | 79.3588 |
| 1997 | 1 | 16.000000 | 16 | 1.4797000 | 2.232700 | 2.2327 | 0.4028000 | 23.675400 | 0.3037000 | 0.1085000 | 16 | 23.6754 |
| 1998 | 3 | 8.333333 | 10 | 0.9639000 | 1.180500 | 1.6592 | 0.1400667 | 7.422033 | 0.1280333 | 0.1655000 | 25 | 22.2661 |
| 1999 | 3 | 6.000000 | 6 | 1.8738667 | 2.282167 | 3.3829 | 0.2959667 | 11.243100 | 0.2552000 | 0.3613667 | 18 | 33.7293 |
| 2000 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 2001 | 1 | 5.000000 | 5 | 1.5750000 | 2.170900 | 2.1709 | 0.4694000 | 7.875100 | 2.1709000 | 0.2969000 | 5 | 7.8751 |
| 2002 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 2003 | 1 | 7.000000 | 7 | 1.2798000 | 1.639400 | 1.6394 | 0.3042000 | 8.958400 | 0.2072000 | 0.2475000 | 7 | 8.9584 |
| 2004 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 2005 | 1 | 8.000000 | 8 | 1.8664000 | 2.496700 | 2.4967 | 0.4596000 | 14.931200 | 0.4281000 | 0.3464000 | 8 | 14.9312 |
| 2006 | 4 | 15.000000 | 38 | 1.8159500 | 2.053000 | 3.1736 | 0.1618500 | 22.702875 | 0.2191750 | 0.1705750 | 60 | 90.8115 |
| 2007 | 3 | 30.333333 | 71 | 0.9107333 | 1.167033 | 1.3359 | 0.1581667 | 26.038867 | 0.0657000 | 0.2341333 | 91 | 78.1166 |
| 2008 | 3 | 12.000000 | 16 | 1.9859667 | 2.882633 | 3.9374 | 0.5579000 | 23.123867 | 0.3190333 | 0.3571333 | 36 | 69.3716 |
| 2009 | 1 | 13.000000 | 13 | 2.4108000 | 3.576000 | 3.5760 | 0.6227000 | 31.339900 | 0.7990000 | 0.1980000 | 13 | 31.3399 |
| 2010 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 2011 | 1 | 7.000000 | 7 | 1.1428000 | 1.191000 | 1.1910 | 0.0347000 | 7.999400 | 0.1025000 | 0.1664000 | 7 | 7.9994 |
| 2012 | 3 | 9.666667 | 11 | 1.4983667 | 2.038033 | 2.9144 | 0.3562000 | 14.827000 | 0.2345000 | 0.3452667 | 29 | 44.4810 |
| 2013 | 0 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 2014 | 7 | 34.571429 | 136 | 1.2097429 | 1.779929 | 4.2326 | 0.2784000 | 55.218071 | 0.1160857 | 0.0722286 | 242 | 386.5265 |
| 2015 | 1 | 11.000000 | 11 | 2.6690000 | 3.373400 | 3.3734 | 0.4398000 | 29.359100 | 0.2151000 | 0.3407000 | 11 | 29.3591 |
| 2016 | 5 | 13.000000 | 25 | 1.2739600 | 1.484600 | 2.5744 | 0.1375400 | 16.049700 | 0.0807800 | 0.1034000 | 65 | 80.2485 |
| 2017 | 1 | 22.000000 | 22 | 0.5405000 | 0.654300 | 0.6543 | 0.0582000 | 11.890100 | 0.0118000 | 0.0255000 | 22 | 11.8901 |
| 2018 | 3 | 26.000000 | 49 | 2.3436667 | 3.506667 | 6.7605 | 0.6554333 | 47.946967 | 0.5036000 | 0.4738000 | 78 | 143.8409 |
| 2019 | 3 | 6.666667 | 9 | 1.5961333 | 1.810767 | 2.5292 | 0.1537000 | 11.588867 | 0.1560333 | 0.1814000 | 20 | 34.7666 |
| 2020 | 3 | 20.000000 | 36 | 1.0224333 | 1.360500 | 1.9367 | 0.2111333 | 21.214667 | 0.1033333 | 0.0916667 | 60 | 63.6440 |
| 2021 | 2 | 10.000000 | 11 | 0.9472000 | 1.225800 | 1.4512 | 0.1739500 | 9.297950 | 0.1926000 | 0.0848500 | 20 | 18.5959 |
| 2022 | 3 | 17.666667 | 36 | 1.3592333 | 1.651933 | 1.9599 | 0.2351667 | 21.075867 | 0.7792667 | 0.1519333 | 53 | 63.2276 |
| 2023 | 1 | 7.000000 | 7 | 0.9470000 | 1.126900 | 1.1269 | 0.1292000 | 6.628900 | 0.1295000 | 0.0801000 | 7 | 6.6289 |
##
## Pettitt's test for single change-point detection
##
## data: ctdepth_i$temp_DS
## U* = 147330, p-value < 0.00000000000000022
## alternative hypothesis: two.sided
## sample estimates:
## probable change point at time K
## 969
##
##
## Pettitt's test for single change-point detection
##
## data: ctdepth_i$temp_DS
## U* = 172444, p-value < 0.00000000000000022
## alternative hypothesis: two.sided
## sample estimates:
## probable change point at time K
## 1001
##
##
## Pettitt's test for single change-point detection
##
## data: ctdepth_i$temp_DS
## U* = 122646, p-value = 0.000000000001957
## alternative hypothesis: two.sided
## sample estimates:
## probable change point at time K
## 1001
##
##
## Pettitt's test for single change-point detection
##
## data: ctdepth_i$temp_DS
## U* = 98262, p-value = 0.0000000391
## alternative hypothesis: two.sided
## sample estimates:
## probable change point at time K
## 1219
##
##
## Pettitt's test for single change-point detection
##
## data: ctdepth_i$temp_DS
## U* = 76434, p-value = 0.00004332
## alternative hypothesis: two.sided
## sample estimates:
## probable change point at time K
## 1220
##
##
## Pettitt's test for single change-point detection
##
## data: ctdepth_i$temp_DS
## U* = 75240, p-value = 0.00006043
## alternative hypothesis: two.sided
## sample estimates:
## probable change point at time K
## 1220
##
##
## Pettitt's test for single change-point detection
##
## data: ctdepth_i$temp_DS
## U* = 102480, p-value = 0.000000008244
## alternative hypothesis: two.sided
## sample estimates:
## probable change point at time K
## 611
##
##
## Pettitt's test for single change-point detection
##
## data: ctdepth_i$temp_DS
## U* = 124394, p-value = 0.0000000000008846
## alternative hypothesis: two.sided
## sample estimates:
## probable change point at time K
## 613
##
##
## Pettitt's test for single change-point detection
##
## data: ctdepth_i$temp_DS
## U* = 136254, p-value = 0.000000000000003011
## alternative hypothesis: two.sided
## sample estimates:
## probable change point at time K
## 613
##
##
## Pettitt's test for single change-point detection
##
## data: ctdepth_i$temp_DS
## U* = 176396, p-value < 0.00000000000000022
## alternative hypothesis: two.sided
## sample estimates:
## probable change point at time K
## 613
##
##
## Pettitt's test for single change-point detection
##
## data: ctdepth_i$temp_DS
## U* = 204196, p-value < 0.00000000000000022
## alternative hypothesis: two.sided
## sample estimates:
## probable change point at time K
## 790
##
##
## Pettitt's test for single change-point detection
##
## data: ctdepth_i$temp_DS
## U* = 226904, p-value < 0.00000000000000022
## alternative hypothesis: two.sided
## sample estimates:
## probable change point at time K
## 790
##
##
## Pettitt's test for single change-point detection
##
## data: ctdepth_i$temp_DS
## U* = 242160, p-value < 0.00000000000000022
## alternative hypothesis: two.sided
## sample estimates:
## probable change point at time K
## 790
##
##
## Pettitt's test for single change-point detection
##
## data: ctdepth_i$temp_DS
## U* = 260284, p-value < 0.00000000000000022
## alternative hypothesis: two.sided
## sample estimates:
## probable change point at time K
## 794
##
##
## Pettitt's test for single change-point detection
##
## data: ctdepth_i$temp_DS
## U* = 260260, p-value < 0.00000000000000022
## alternative hypothesis: two.sided
## sample estimates:
## probable change point at time K
## 794
##
##
## Pettitt's test for single change-point detection
##
## data: ctdepth_i$temp_DS
## U* = 240012, p-value < 0.00000000000000022
## alternative hypothesis: two.sided
## sample estimates:
## probable change point at time K
## 628
| Profondeur (m) | Mann-Kendall global (p-val) | pente de Theil-Sen globale (°C/an) | Test de Pettitt (p-val) | Date de rupture probable (an) | M-K pré-rupture (p-val) | T-S pré-rupture (°C/an) | M-K post-rupture (p-val) | T-S post-rupture (°C/an) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.0000000 | 0.0449463 | 0.0000000 | 2003 | 0.1199891 | 0.0116731 | 0.0000000 | 0.0645453 |
| 5 | 0.1205614 | 0.0182985 | 0.0000000 | 2014 | 0.1142450 | -0.0127346 | 0.9092847 | 0.0073495 |
| 10 | 0.0349058 | 0.0234367 | 0.0000000 | 2014 | 0.7317975 | -0.0031652 | 0.9863232 | -0.0009794 |
| 15 | 0.1889768 | 0.0149327 | 0.0000000 | 2014 | 0.5271208 | -0.0069491 | 0.2400788 | 0.0718663 |
| 20 | 0.4141574 | 0.0085188 | 0.0000000 | 2018 | 0.6798700 | -0.0042948 | 0.4775946 | -0.0679730 |
| 25 | 0.6658341 | 0.0034348 | 0.0000433 | 2018 | 0.4854060 | -0.0055599 | 0.5139612 | 0.0465088 |
| 30 | 0.3214442 | 0.0070804 | 0.0000604 | 2018 | 0.7886515 | 0.0022075 | 0.2737767 | 0.0656808 |
| 35 | 0.0237262 | 0.0128976 | 0.0000000 | 2007 | 0.5393672 | 0.0103235 | 0.0545460 | 0.0202656 |
| 40 | 0.0002213 | 0.0146355 | 0.0000000 | 2007 | 0.4743317 | 0.0091436 | 0.0000000 | 0.0168127 |
| 45 | 0.0000000 | 0.0152467 | 0.0000000 | 2007 | 0.7965169 | -0.0032829 | 0.0190862 | 0.0192232 |
| 50 | 0.0000011 | 0.0200254 | 0.0000000 | 2007 | 0.2620205 | -0.0151005 | 0.0448443 | 0.0241822 |
| 55 | 0.0000052 | 0.0228366 | 0.0000000 | 2010 | 0.9667347 | -0.0003634 | 0.7309746 | 0.0054197 |
| 60 | 0.0000008 | 0.0251920 | 0.0000000 | 2010 | 0.7041550 | 0.0033083 | 0.7361231 | 0.0052246 |
| 65 | 0.0000000 | 0.0266425 | 0.0000000 | 2010 | 0.4567128 | 0.0074335 | 0.6975092 | 0.0054632 |
| 70 | 0.0000000 | 0.0260191 | 0.0000000 | 2010 | 0.6375545 | 0.0049793 | 0.8758468 | 0.0020969 |
| 75 | 0.0000098 | 0.0229793 | 0.0000000 | 2010 | 0.6361859 | 0.0046526 | 0.4857258 | -0.0083832 |
| 80 | 0.0000497 | 0.0214588 | 0.0000000 | 2007 | 0.2922477 | -0.0117937 | 0.0793565 | 0.0140894 |
Ces graphiques montrent, par profondeur (de 5 à 40m), l’évènement le plus important sur toute la période d’échantillonnage (de juillet 2017 à décembre 2023) d’après trois critères : celui qui contient le pic d’anomalie (l’intensité maximale) le plus élevé, le plus long, et celui dont l’intensité cumulée (au dessus du seuil, sur tout l’évènement) est la plus importante (en °C.j).
| depth | MK_pval | slope | S_p_val | adj_R2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.0000000 | 0.0449463 | 0.0000000 | 0.2356662 |
| 5 | 0.0000000 | 0.1221039 | 0.0000000 | 0.0300963 |
| 10 | 0.0000000 | 0.0974760 | 0.0000003 | 0.0156685 |
| 15 | 0.0000004 | -0.0932293 | 0.0002490 | 0.0077784 |
| 20 | 0.0000000 | 0.0443820 | 0.0248297 | 0.0025346 |
| 25 | 0.0002817 | 0.0630441 | 0.0073930 | 0.0038752 |
| 30 | 0.2498132 | 0.0377052 | 0.0725585 | 0.0013978 |
| 35 | 0.5419588 | 0.0161625 | 0.3848496 | -0.0001536 |
| 40 | 0.0000000 | 0.0158582 | 0.1063192 | 0.0010109 |
Ici, on s’intéresse seulement à rapidement comparer certains jeu de données entre eux. Les données satellites et EOL d’abord, pour confirmer la similitude des données malgré le (relatif) éloignement spatial et ainsi pour justifier de la pertinence de l’utilisation des données satellites pour calculer une climatologie dont on se sert pour détecter des MHWs sur les données EOL. D’autre part, on compare aussi les données CTD et T-MEDNet pour chaque profondeur disponible pour T-MEDNet
On compare les résultats obtenus après la détection d’évènements sur les données EOL seules et sur les données EOL+Satellite
| Mesures | Nombre d’évènements | Durée moyenne (jours) | Durée maximale | Moyenne IM | Moyenne des IMax | Moyenne des IC | Taux de croissance (°C/j) | Taux de déclin (°C/j) | Nombre de jours total | Intensité cumulée totale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| p-value | 0.0184405 | 0.0078125 | 0.0207062 | 0.1484375 | 0.0078125 | 0.0078125 | 0.1953125 | 0.25 | 0.0078125 | 0.0078125 |