Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

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Published

June 5, 2024

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for DR Congo, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Jamaica, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania, Rwanda.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

DR Congo

For DR Congo, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in March: A notable humanitarian response was mobilized to address the consequences of conflict, particularly in North Kivu and other regions. The International Committee of the Red Cross, along with its local counterpart, has provided assistance to over 44,000 displaced individuals in Goma, indicating the vast scale of the displacement crisis. Additionally, women’s organizations have voiced their concerns over the impact of the conflict on women and children, specifically condemning Rwandan aggression during the International Day of Women’s Rights. Other initiatives have seen groups like Umoja, with EU financial backing, delivering hygiene kits to displaced adolescents in North Kivu to prevent diseases, and community efforts in Lubumbashi collecting donations to support war victims. Furthermore, protests in Mbuji-Mayi by fish sellers against the National Railway Society of Congo underscore the wider economic difficulties faced by local traders amidst the ongoing humanitarian crises.

  • Legal Actions in March: The Court of Cassation suspended proceedings against a former Minister pending a Constitutional Court ruling regarding the constitutionality of his prosecution for spreading false information. In parallel, courts in Kinshasa were actively involved in significant legal actions, including promising judgment on disputes from the provincial legislative elections and examining challenges to election results, highlighting the judicial system’s role in shaping the political landscape. Additionally, a journalist was sentenced for spreading alleged falsehoods, underscoring ongoing concerns about press freedom, while a military court’s sentencing of a corporal to death for murder reflects the strict enforcement of justice within the armed forces.

  • Legal Changes in March: The lifting of the 2003 moratorium on the execution of the death penalty sparked criticism for contravening the Constitution’s protection of human life, with concerns raised by international communities and human rights organizations. In the economic sector, the DR Congo government and Sicomines have made a major revision to their collaborative mining project, which could notably alter the country’s economic and infrastructural development.

  • Security Mobilization in February: The United Nations and South African Defence Forces, alongside Congolese troops, defended Goma against the Rwandan army and M23 rebels, in an endeavor that underscores the commitment to peacekeeping in the region. MONUSCO, the UN’s peacekeeping mission in DR Congo, bolstered its presence in Goma amid rising hostilities. Furthermore, the South African government deployed a significant number of its national defense forces to combat illegal armed groups in Eastern DR Congo. Amid these military and diplomatic efforts, the planned withdrawal of MONUSCO bases, including the closure of the base in Kamanyola, signifies a major transition in the approach to maintaining peace and security by gradually transferring responsibilities to Congolese forces. Additionally, international concern over Rwanda’s alleged support for the M23 armed group has led to diplomatic tensions, as exemplified by the United States’ condemnation and call for the withdrawal of Rwandan forces from DR Congo.

  • Protests in February: There was widespread civil unrest and protests against the perceived indifference of the international community and foreign embassies to the aggression faced by the eastern provinces from M23 and Rwandan forces. Demonstrations erupted in Kinshasa and other cities, with protesters decrying the ongoing security crisis and targeting properties owned by foreign nationals, as well as expressing discontent with MONUSCO’s response to the conflict. Efforts to draw attention to the violence in the east saw over 500 women, supported by men, marching in Kinshasa, while other peaceful protests occurred in Bukavu and several locations against Rwandan aggression. Beyond the protests, socio-economic impacts of the insecurity were palpable, with local carpentry mutuals in Butembo going on strike due to arson on their workshops and petroleum importers in Beni striking against legal measures they viewed as unjust.

  • Purge/Replace in February: The resignation of Prime Minister Jean-Michel Sama Lukonde, following the general elections of December 20, 2023, marked a pivotal political shift, necessitating the resignation of his entire government. This was further compounded by the Constitutional Court’s directive for officials to resign from their political functions if they wish to retain their elective mandates, ensuring a strict separation of governmental powers. Additionally, the economic sector saw disruptions with the suspension of key figures in the mining industry and the provincial division of justice, reflecting serious governance and accountability measures within the country’s pivotal sectors.

  • Raids in February: In North Kivu, around five hundred households were evacuated from two districts on the orders of the M23 rebels, due to security concerns.

  • Non-lethal Violence in February: There were intense and violent clashes between the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) and the M23 rebels, supported by the Rwandan army, which caused significant displacement of civilians. Additionally, the Goma international airport was struck by two bombs suspected to be from Rwandan Army drones, damaging civilian aircraft and showcasing the cross-border tensions. Reports also indicate various instances of looting in Sake amid these intensifying clashes, and a United Nations mission helicopter was attacked, wounding two peacekeepers. Furthermore, the FARDC successfully countered an attack by the CODECO militia in Djugu, with support from MONUSCO’s forces.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Ethiopia

For Ethiopia, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Corruption in March: A significant probe into misconduct and fraudulent activity has commenced with the Addis Ababa Chamber of Commerce and Sectoral Associations (AACCSA) under investigation by its board of directors. This inquiry coincides with a dispute between Purpose Black Ethiopia and BGI Ethiopia over a failed property deal in Addis Ababa, involving a large sum of money and raising concerns of corruption in significant business transactions. Additionally, notable developments include the dropping of high-profile terrorism and corruption charges against two individuals.

  • Defamation Cases in February: In Addis Ababa, a significant lawsuit garnered widespread attention after a former Nigerian President was sued following remarks made at the African Union headquarters. A separate but less-publicized case involved a local businessman who pursued legal action against a competitor for derogatory comments made at a trade conference.

  • Legal Actions in March: A notable case included the Federal High Court’s decision involving BGI Ethiopia over a failed property deal, signifying legal conflicts within the business sector. Additionally, the release on bail of political figures and a journalist, alongside charges of terrorism against others, emphasized concerns over political freedom and journalistic rights. Reports by the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission exposed widespread constitutional breaches by security forces, while efforts to combat high-level corruption were highlighted by the release of a former director general accused of corruption charges.

  • Purge/Replace in January: A significant shake-up occurred with the dismissal of the long-standing Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs.

  • Lethal Violence in February: In the Amhara region, at least 50 people were killed in execution-style killings after fighting in Merawi town, and a drone strike in the North Shewa zone resulted in at least 30 deaths and more than 10 injuries. Additionally, in the Gambella region, inter-community clashes and attacks on refugees have led to at least 138 deaths and 113 injuries since May 2023. In the Oromia region, conflicts between government forces and the Oromo Liberation Army resulted in 15 civilian deaths.

Forecasting

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Ethiopia.

Guatemala

For Guatemala, our data includes coverage through April 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Corruption in February and April: A former Minister of Communications pleaded guilty to money laundering. Additionally, the dismissal of charges against a previously respected figure in a major corruption case demonstrated the judiciary’s struggles in prosecuting high-profile corruption cases effectively. A corruption case related to hospital construction implicated government officials. Moreover, the dissolution of a specialized police unit due to complaints about illegal payments highlighted the challenges of corruption within security forces. Other cases involved high-profile figures, including former communications ministers José Luis Benito and Alejandro Sinibaldi, embroiled in money laundering allegations and dubious decisions surrounding legal proceedings. Additionally, former Health Minister faced legal action over anomalies in the COVID-19 vaccine procurement process. Environmental and infrastructure issues also came to light with complaints about irregularities in the licensing process for the Cerro Blanco mining project and investigations into the Ministry of Communications, Infrastructure, and Housing for million-dollar irregularities in airport equipment installations.

  • Defamation Cases in April: A notable defamation case involved a former presidential candidate seeking the withdrawal of immunity from a deputy, following accusations made against him on social media platforms.

  • Legal Changes in March: The Congress approved the Credit Card Act, aimed at reducing interest rates to enhance consumer finance transparency. Additionally, the establishment of a specialized cancer care hospital through decree. Legal adjustments have also been made to accommodate the shift towards teleworking, initiated by the COVID-19 pandemic, to regulate remote work across sectors. Furthermore, a legislative proposal seeks to classify gang members as terrorists.

  • Security Mobilization in March: In Guatemala, a significant operation against Mara Salvatrucha and Barrio 18 gangs was carried out in 15 departments. The deployment of the National Navy to patrol Lake Atitlan before Holy Week and actions against clandestine racing and drunk driving reflect efforts to ensure public safety during significant events. Following an armed attack near Unaerc, security measures were increased. Additionally, more officers were introduced into the Safe Schools program.

  • Purge/Replace in February and April: President Bernardo Arévalo led the dismissal of 878 state employees across various departments, including notable figures within the General Directorate of Civil Aeronautics and the Ministry of Health. Additionally, the entire cadre of departmental directors of education was dismissed, and notable changes were made in leadership positions within the administration, such as at the Institute for the Assistance and Care of the Victims of Crime. President Bernardo Arévalo dismissed the Minister of the Environment and Natural Resources for misusing state resources and high-ranking employees were removed from the Directorate General of Roads by the Ministry of Communications and the Anti-Corruption Commissioner. Additionally, there were discussion around holding a popular consultation to consider the removal of Consuelo Porras, the Attorney General, and the dismissal of Edvin Danilo Mazariegos, Deputy Minister of Sustainable Development.

  • Raids in February, March and April: Raids were conducted connected to the high-profile disappearance of singer Zoel Cruz de León in Zacapa, involving the seizure of firearms and a vehicle. Concurrently, broad operations against drug crimes spanned Guatemala City, Mixco, and San Marcos involving 41 property searches. Efforts also targeted organized crime within the digital sphere, with operations following the attack on TikToker Orlando Galindo and searches at the Cantel Model Rehabilitation Farm in Quetzaltenango aimed at dismantling extortion operations. Additionally, raids targeted counterfeit devices at La Aurora International Airport. A significant law enforcement effort was conducted involving approximately 81 raids to crack down on members of the Barrio 18 and Mara Salvitrucha gangs implicated in extortion schemes. Concurrently, security forces targeted a network responsible for migrant smuggling, with operations extending across various departments, including Guatemala, Huehuetenango, and San Marcos. Additionally, authorities initiated 66 raids across eight departments to confront extortion operations, along with 17 raids focused on dismantling a group involved in the illegal trafficking of persons. Raids were also carried out on offices of high-profile organizations such as Save The Children, as part of an investigation into violations against children.

  • Lethal Violence in March and April: In Villa Canales, an altercation between rival gangs resulted in several deaths. The aftermath of a concert by Karol G in Guatemala also turned tragic with an armed incident that claimed lives, causing panic amongst the attendees. Additionally, an attack on a prosecutor and her entourage occurred in the capital, with casualties including the prosecutor’s mother and a security officer. Additionally, an armed attack in Esquipulas, Chiquimula resulted in the deaths of four people, attributed to a neighborhood conflict. Conflicts over land in Nenton, Huehuetenango led to three fatalities, underscoring the severity of territorial disputes in the country.

  • Non-lethal Violence in March: Key incidents included an armed attack on prosecutor Miriam Aída Reguero Sosa, her mother, and her security team. Additionally, a marked increase in attacks against judicial officials investigating corruption and human rights violations was recorded.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Indonesia

For Indonesia, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of February 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in January: Over three thousand volunteers gathered to support a political campaign in Krantren Gedongsari, Prambon Nganjuk, while hundreds of advocates in East Java aligned with the People’s Defense Team, indicating a robust mobilization across different fields including law and electoral campaigning. Additionally, animal welfare activists intercepted a truck carrying dogs intended for slaughter. Furthermore, volunteer groups in cities like Jakarta and Bandung took up various causes ranging from environmental cleanup to educational and social welfare initiatives. In Ciputat, South Tangerang, pamphlets were distributed by volunteers and students against political dynasties.

  • Legal Changes in March: The Jakarta Special Region Act was passed, outlining the governance structure for Jakarta after it loses its capital status, alongside the approval of revisions to the 2014 Village Law to enhance village management and leadership. Furthermore, the Constitutional Court eliminated the parliamentary threshold of 4%, a move anticipated to significantly influence party representation in parliament.

  • Security Mobilization in March: A significant force was mobilized to secure a march against election cheating and to escort public election announcements. Moreover, security was heightened during the Constitutional Court’s trial involving election candidates and Idulfitri celebrations.

  • Protests in February: In Jakarta, hundreds of students and academics marched to protest against government policies, demanding democracy, human rights, and action on climate change ahead of the presidential election. Meanwhile, in Yogyakarta, there were unique protests where individuals dressed in elementary school uniforms performed musical actions to support a candidate, and another protest at the Gejayan complex visually critiqued the president’s administration, demonstrating a mix of cultural performance and political expression. Additionally, in Jakarta, labor disputes came to the forefront as officers protested against derogatory comments from their superior, emphasizing workplace dignity.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Jamaica

For Jamaica, our data includes coverage through April 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in March: The Central Jamaica Seventh-day Adventists launched the Operation Save a Youth (OSAY) initiative, attracting over 2,000 volunteers for community cleanup activities and health fairs. Concurrently, the Jamaica Environment Trust (JET) spearheaded an environmental cleanup of Refuge Cay, removing over 15,603 pounds of garbage with the help of 76 volunteers. Additionally, the island witnessed pro-life activism through the ‘40 Days for Life’ campaign. Legal activism was also prominent, with Jamaicans for Justice (JFJ) and Stand Up for Jamaica (SUFJ) advocating for the rights of around 300 mentally ill detainees awaiting trial, underlining grave human rights concerns.

  • Censorship in April: The Broadcasting Commission of Jamaica reprimanded CVM TV and its partner VertiCast/CVM TV for not airing English Premier League matches as advertised, to the detriment of their subscribers, leading to a judicial review sought by CVM TV against the commission’s decision. Concurrently, VertiCast Media Group has sued major telecommunications entities, Digicel and Cable & Wireless, demanding that they carry its CSport channels.

  • Defamation Cases in March: In Jamaica, a series of defamation cases and legal confrontations involving high-profile figures and institutions unfolded. Information Minister Robert Nesta Morgan accused a former FBI agent of defamation. Additionally, concerns raised over the Integrity Commission’s investigations into legislators highlight ongoing debates about defamation and due process within the realm of political and legal discourse in Jamaica.

  • Legal Changes in March: The public procurement process was modified by doubling the approval threshold for contracts, a move aimed at making procurement more efficient but which has raised concerns regarding transparency. Additionally, in an effort to maintain judicial integrity, amendments have been made to the Jury Act allowing judges the option to continue trials without a jury in certain cases, following the overturning of a high-profile murder conviction due to jury tampering. In the education sector, the removal of the guarantor requirement for student loans promises to make tertiary education more accessible to students from lower-income backgrounds. Economic adjustments were also made, including an increase in the personal income tax threshold and pensions to lessen the financial load on lower and middle-income earners and pensioners, along with the removal of the General Consumption Tax on imported raw foods to ensure compliance with WTO standards and to potentially lower the cost of living.

  • Security Mobilization in March: In Jamaica, security forces ramped up their presence in the Grange Hill community in Westmoreland due to a spike in gang violence that led to four murders in a single weekend. Simultaneously, the Jamaica Constabulary Force initiated the Beat Officer Patrol Division in Kingston and St Andrew to improve public safety and foster stronger community policing efforts. Responding to incidents of violence in schools, there were calls for enhanced security measures, including the installation of security cameras and perimeter fencing. Additionally, the St Catherine North Police Division launched targeted strategies to tackle crime, especially murders, in areas experiencing surges in such activities, with a keen focus on Linstead and Spanish Town, indicating a concerted effort to reduce crime rates in hotspots.

  • Protests in March and April: Staff at the University of Technology threatened to cease work due to slow progress on a compensation review, signifying a major labor dispute within the educational sector. Residents in West End, Negril, expressed their frustration through roadblocks due to inadequate water supply and poor road conditions, while in Little London, Westmoreland, the tragic deaths of two teenagers following a police chase led to protests demanding accountability from law enforcement. Additionally, political discord was evident as government members, including Prime Minister Andrew Holness, walked out during a parliamentary session amid criticisms related to the appointment of Juliet Holness as House Speaker. More than 10,000 revelers participated in the Carnival Road March, an event which underscored its cultural and economic significance by generating over $5 billion according to the Ministry of Tourism. Meanwhile, correctional officers at Horizon Adult Remand Centre took industrial action due to stalled salary negotiations, causing disruptions. Ancillary staff at Seaview Gardens Primary School protested over unpaid wages and demanded better compensation and administrative changes. Employees of the Jamaica Urban Transit Company threatened to strike over increases in health insurance premiums, posing a potential impact on public transportation services. Additionally, residents in Manchester protested poor road conditions by blocking the main road with debris.

  • Purge/Replace in March: March saw the firing of a works minister for threatening political opponents, alongside resignations within the People’s National Party (PNP). Additionally, the push for removing a key figure from parliamentary committees by Jamaica’s Integrity Commission, together with leadership changes within the Jamaica Constabulary Force, indicates significant restructuring aimed at enhancing law enforcement and governance.

Forecasting

In our last report, our shock models predicted an increase in reporting Legal Changes in Q1 2024. Consistent with our prediction, we saw an increase in reporting on Legal Changes in March 2024.

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Mali

For Mali, our data includes coverage through April 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship in March and April: The United Nations and its officials, including independent experts, expressed significant concern regarding the dissolution of civil society organizations in Mali, led by the governing authority. The Transitional Government, led by President Colonel Assimi Goïta, suspended all political parties and associations, a move widely criticized for undermining democratic principles and freedom of expression. In a subsequent action, the High Authority of Communication (HAC) ordered media outlets to halt the dissemination of content related to these political entities, a directive met with defiance from the Maison de la Presse and condemned as an attack on press freedom.

  • Corruption in February: The Directorate General of the Autorité Routière and the Ministry of Rural Development’s Finance and Materiel Directorate both experienced substantial financial discrepancies, amounting to billions of CFAF, reflecting challenges in financial management and oversight. Further compounding these issues, arrests were made in connection to embezzlement of funds intended for Covid-19 response, involving a financial gap of 35 billion CFAF, and corruption within Mali Post and public service recruitment.

  • Legal Changes in April: In Mali, the Constitutional Court rejected Organic Law No. 2023-058/CNT-RM, which concerned the benefits and salaries of members of the National Transitional Council (CNT), for being unconstitutional. Following this, the CNT announced intentions to amend the law in compliance with constitutional and transitional charter recommendations. Additionally, the Malian government’s suspension of political parties and associative political activities has drawn international criticism, including from the United Nations.

  • Protests in April: In Bankass and Koro, protests were organized in response to the continuous threat from armed terrorists and the unauthorized confiscation of fuel by defense and security forces. Similarly, the residents of Saye Commune in the Segou region demonstrated against the blockades imposed by terrorist groups. Concurrently, civil society in Boni, Douentza region, raised alarms over the humanitarian crisis resulting from these security dilemmas. Labor movements, represented by SYNABEF, also demonstrated their capability to effect change through the suspension of a planned strike due to successful negotiations.

  • Purge/Replace in March and April: In Mali, the government took sweeping actions to dissolve several associations, including the Coordination of Movements, Associations and Sympathizers of Imam Mahmoud Dicko (CMAS) and the Association of Pupils and Students of Mali (AEEM), indicating a comprehensive crackdown on groups seen as oppositional. Furthermore, internal changes within significant political coalitions and the transitional government, such as the resignation of Dr. Choguel Kokalla Maiga from the M5-RFP and Colonel Major Nouhoum Dabitao from the National Transitional Council (CNT), reflect underlying discord and challenges in governance. There was also a major shake-up of the diplomatic corps with the recall of several ambassadors and a crackdown on corruption within the judiciary.

Forecasting

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Mali.

Mauritania

For Mauritania, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of December 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Civic Activism in February: The Coalition “Espoir Mauritania” criticized law enforcement for serious human rights violations in R-Kiz, highlighting intimidation and detentions amid land disputes. Additionally, Mauritanian student federations and associations abroad demonstrated their solidarity with protesting students by rallying against what they termed the Ministry of Higher Education’s “illegal and barbaric” tactics. Furthermore, the event organized by the civil society group Fraternity and Development on the dangers of illegal migration and trafficking showcased a broad concern and engagement with pressing community issues.

  • Censorship in January and March: A member of the “Ira” movement, experienced a significant setback in political freedom of expression after being barred from attending four parliamentary sessions. The reason behind this disciplinary action was her derogatory remark towards the Chief Minister, referring to him as a “guard dog.” The Council of Supreme Authority of the Community took action to censor the Invo news site by banning it for 60 days, citing the publication of false news and breaches of professionalism. Furthermore, the official Mauritanian channel ceased the broadcast of a series that criticized the financial practices of the Ministry of Culture. Additionally, police forces were reported to obstruct journalists from covering student protests.

  • Defamation Cases in February and March: A significant legal action took place involving prominent political figures. The President of the Union des forces for le progrès filed a defamation case against another individual, accusing them of defamation, slander, and personal abuse. The head of the Comprehensive Transparency Organization, Mohamed Ould-Gadha, faced serious legal charges including slander, defamation, and disseminating false information through the internet. This case captured significant public interest after the investigating judge of the Western State of Nouakchott confirmed the decision to transfer him to prison based on the aforementioned charges.

  • Protests in February: The National Union of Mauritanian Students, the Mauritanian Midwives’ Union, and teachers in various cities have all taken to protests and strikes to voice their demands for improvements in higher education, healthcare, and educational administration, respectively. These protests were marked by significant participation and were in response to issues such as grant criteria, the treatment of midwives, and unfair decisions in the educational sector. Additionally, a considerable number of citizens protested against a Ponzi scheme that led to substantial financial losses, indicating broader social and economic grievances.

  • Lethal Violence in March: A violent confrontation in the Bahida district of North Nouakchott resulted in at least one death and several injuries, highlighting the fatal outcome of conflict between youth groups. Additionally, a citizen was fatally stabbed in Bascino, in the far east of the country, raising concerns over personal security and the implications of cross-border criminal activities.

Forecasting

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Mauritania.

Niger

For Niger, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of December 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship in February: In Niger, a significant act of censorship impacted public health awareness and education on sexual and reproductive health among women and young adolescents. The mobile application ‘Yamaro,’ which was developed to facilitate this education, was banned from being launched and disseminated.

Forecasting

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Niger.

Nigeria

For Nigeria, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of December 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship in February and March: The Nigerian government issued a stern warning to civil servants against the unauthorized disclosure of sensitive documents, indicating a tight grip on governmental information flow. In Kano State, the revocation of licenses for entertainment companies marks a clear stance on the government’s authority over cultural expressions, particularly affecting the entertainment industry. Additionally, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission’s actions against Distribution Companies for billing non-compliance, the Federal High Court Ilorin’s barring of journalists from a high-profile trial, and the government’s crackdown on loan apps demonstrate an expansive approach to regulating information, consumer protection, and journalistic freedom. The Nigerian Communications Commission implemented a policy requiring SIM cards to be linked to National Identification Numbers, leading to millions of phone lines being barred, while the Central Bank of Nigeria halted operations between the naira currency and Binance, affecting the cryptocurrency market. Additionally, legal and administrative measures have targeted individual and collective freedoms of expression: a high court imposed specific bail conditions on a social media influencer, the National Youth Service Corps restricted corps members’ interactions with the press, and the Labour Party prohibited journalists from attending its national convention.

  • Corruption in January: The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) uncovered a series of significant fraud and money laundering operations, involving high-profile figures and organizations, and tracing large sums of money linked to corruption and terrorism. Among these were the discovery of a religious sect laundering N7 billion for terrorists, the arrest of a former Anambra Governor over a N4 billion fraud, and investigations into the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development for an alleged N585 million fraud. Additionally, the EFCC scrutinized the Accountant General of the Federation in connection with N30 billion moved to private accounts from the National Social Investment Programme Agency. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court affirmed a five-year jail term for a former House of Representatives member for bribery, indicating the judiciary’s involvement in the fight against corruption.

  • Defamation Cases in March: The Federal Government started prosecuting an individual for making serious allegations against a former Minister.

  • Legal Actions in January: The Supreme Court dismissed an appeal against the Adamawa governorship election results, reinforcing the judicial system’s role in electoral integrity. Concurrently, a former Minister of Power and Steel was remanded over fraud allegations linked to the Mambilla Power Project. Additionally, investigations were conducted into allegations of a fraudulent academic scheme and financial misconduct by a former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

  • Legal Changes in February: President Bola Tinubu signed the Electricity Act (Amendment) Bill into law to reform operational and financial aspects of the electricity sector, including benefits for host communities and enhanced regulatory powers for the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission. The House of Representatives advanced a bill to establish state police, a move intended to strengthen local security measures amid rising concerns over national insecurity. Additionally, the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control has enforced a ban on the production and sale of small-capacity alcoholic beverages to address health concerns. There’s also a legislative proposal to amend the governance of the Central Bank of Nigeria, aiming for enhanced fiscal discipline and bank independence. Lastly, an increase in the retirement age for staff of the National Assembly Service was proposed, reflecting efforts to retain experienced personnel longer.

  • Security Mobilization in March: The Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps deployed 35,000 personnel nationwide to ensure security during the Easter celebrations. This came after the President deployed troops for a rescue operation following the abduction of over 250 pupils. Additionally, in response to the theft and looting of a food store in Abuja, the emergency agency increased security at its warehouses. Further steps to bolster security included a call for intensified military operations against terrorists and bandits in the North West by the Minister of State for Defence and the deployment of 1,042 patrol vehicles by the Federal Road Safety Corps to improve travel conditions during the holiday period.

  • Protests in February: The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC) demanded the implementation of a 16-point agreement from the federal government to address the economic hardship intensified by policies like the fuel subsidy removal. Similarly, protests erupted over the skyrocketing prices of food, inadequate electricity supply in Port Harcourt, and allegations of kidnapping involvement by a Senator, marking widespread unrest and demands for accountability and improvement in living conditions. Demonstrations in Delta State also highlighted community grievances over the premature release of a suspect connected to a local killing.

  • Purge/Replace in January and March: The President of Nigeria suspended the Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation over a financial scandal. At the state level, the governor of Imo State took direct action to improve waste management efficiency by overhauling the management team of the state’s waste agency. The Peoples Democratic Party suspended a chairman for anti-party activities and the All Progressives Congress nullified a suspension to maintain cohesion. Additionally, regulatory authorities acted decisively in the energy sector by dissolving the Board of Directors of a Distribution Company due to financial mismanagement. The Senate suspended Senator Abdul Ningi for three months after he alleged the 2024 budget to be padded with N3. 7 trillion, sparking widespread controversy over budget integrity. Concurrently, President Bola Tinubu suspended the Managing Director of the Rural Electrification Agency and three executive directors over a N1. 2 billion fraud, underscoring the administration’s intolerance of corruption. Additionally, the Edo State House of Assembly initiated impeachment proceedings against Deputy Governor Philip Shaibu for alleged gross misconduct. Political unrest was also evident in the Enugu State chapter of the All Progressives Congress where a vote of no confidence was passed against the state chairman, and the Jigawa State House of Assembly saw the impeachment of two principal officers and the suspension of four local government chairmen, reflecting the turbulent internal politics within state legislative bodies.

  • Lethal Violence in March: In Delta State, two separate attacks resulted in the deaths of 38 soldiers, including high-ranking officers, with the President vowing that the perpetrators would face justice. Another vicious attack in Niger state saw the village head of Madaka and twenty others killed, with over 50 houses, several cars, and motorcycles destroyed. Additionally, attacks in Ebonyi and Benue States led to the deaths of four police officers, two women, and 16 civilians.

  • Non-lethal Violence in March: Bandits kidnapped 137 students from educational institutions in Kuriga, Chikun Local Government Area, Kaduna, and an unspecified number of Tsangaya students in Sokoto state, marking a concerning trend of abductions in school environments. In a response to violence, the Nigerian Army repelled a terrorist attack in Sokoto State, and gunmen targeted the University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital in Enugu State, abducting personnel. Additionally, Ondo State’s security forces foiled a robbery attempt, underlining the challenges of combating escalating crime and insurgency within the country.

Forecasting

In our last report, our models predicted an increase in reporting Corruption in Q1 2024. Consistent with our prediction, we saw an increase in reporting on Corruption in January 2024.

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Tanzania

For Tanzania, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of January 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship in March: The Council for Art, Census, Film and Culture of Zanzibar suspended new generation artist Zuchu from all art activities for six months and prohibited her songs from being broadcast on local radio and television. Meanwhile, journalists in the Musoma region are now mandated to wear special clothing or badges when working in dangerous areas following a decision made by the Police Force, a measure that raises concerns about surveillance and the limitation of press freedom.

  • Corruption in March: The INSTITUTE for the Prevention and Combating of Corruption (Takukuru) expanded a major case of economic sabotage, bringing the total to 14 defendants facing multiple charges, including money laundering and forming a criminal gang. Furthermore, the Prevention and Combating of Corruption Bureau (PCCB) monitored thousands of development projects, uncovering widespread corruption and poor implementation linked to misuse of funds in critical sectors such as construction and agriculture.

  • Legal Actions in March: The High Court of Tanzania in Dar es Salaam overturned a financial dispute judgment, and another court in the Morogoro Region took a firm stand against digital fraud by sentencing 11 individuals for fraudulent activities. Additionally, a significant sentencing for drug trafficking was handed down, with a man receiving 25 years in prison for transporting a large quantity of marijuana. On the international stage, the Tanzanian government won a breach of contract case against a UAE-based company, illustrating the effectiveness of legal recourse in resolving international disputes.

  • Legal Changes in January: The introduction of three crucial electoral reforms bills is set to significantly impact the political landscape, emphasizing the importance of governance and democracy. Additionally, the implementation of the Universal Health Insurance law, the transition to an interest rate-based monetary policy by the Bank of Tanzania, the introduction of Zanzibar’s new Investment Act, 2023, and the extensive efforts to improve the business and investment climate through the abolition of numerous charges and amendments of laws.

  • Security Mobilization in February: The Drug Control and Anti-Drug Authority (DCEA) was active in preventing drug trafficking involvement among vulnerable children, such as those who have dropped out of school or been abandoned. Concurrently, the Tanzanian Traffic Police Force is stepping up enforcement of road safety laws, with a notable emphasis on safeguarding school children, reflecting a comprehensive approach to enhancing public health and safety across the country.

  • Protests in January: Significant protests were organized by members and supporters of the opposition party, Chadema, who demonstrated in Dar es Salaam to protest proposed changes to electoral laws and demand transparency and fairness in the upcoming elections. These protests included a march to the United Nations offices and were accompanied by a contingent of police officers. Additionally, Chadema has called on the Tanzanian government to withdraw three electoral bills submitted to Parliament, advocating instead for minimal reforms to the 1977 Constitution to guarantee free and fair elections.

  • Purge/Replace in January and March: The President of Zanzibar initiated a significant cabinet reshuffle, affecting multiple high-level officials, including the Minister of Tourism and Antiquities. Similarly, Tanzania’s mainland saw crucial changes, with President Samia Suluhu Hassan revoking the appointment of the Commissioner for Petroleum and Gas. Additionally, system experts in Kigoma’s accounting department and two officials in the Bukoba District were replaced or suspended due to failures in managing responsibilities properly. President Samia Suluhu Hassan initiated a comprehensive government restructuring that saw the appointment of key officials and the dismissal of others to enhance public service performance and delivery. This overhaul extended into the energy sector with the disbandment of the ETDCO Limited’s board due to underperformance and corruption issues. Furthermore, the TANROADS Lindi Region Manager was suspended for failing to manage crucial restoration projects. Additionally, the administration executed a strategic reshuffle of regional commissioners to realign administrative focus with the current government’s priorities.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Rwanda

For Rwanda, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of December 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Censorship in March: The Rwandan government was reported to have criticized British broadcaster Channel 4 for providing a platform to opposition figures.

  • Legal Changes in January and March: The country was entangled in an international controversy due to its participation in the “Safety Rwanda Bill” with the United Kingdom, a policy designed to deport certain asylum seekers from the UK to Rwanda. This policy has drawn criticism for possibly not adhering to international laws regarding refugee treatment. Domestically, Rwanda has made changes to its tax legislation to alleviate burdens on taxpayers and improve compliance, alongside launching the “ArtConnekt” competition to promote cultural growth. Amendments were made to the legislation governing the Rwanda Defence Force and the law concerning higher education institutions.

  • Security Mobilization in January and February: Recent events have shown escalating tensions between Rwanda and its neighbor, Burundi, marked by significant military mobilizations and actions that disrupt regional stability. Burundi has increased its military presence along the Rwandan border, indicating heightened security measures that have implications for the movement of people and economic activities between the two countries. Furthermore, Burundi’s decision to close its borders with Rwanda has not only affected the free flow of goods and people, impacting economic activities and regional integration but also drawn criticism from the Rwandan government and religious leaders in the Great Lakes Region. A significant military escalation was reported in North Kivu, involving Rwandan Defence Forces (RDF) and M23 rebels, with accusations directed at Rwanda for supporting the M23 and conducting military operations near its border with the DRC. The Rwandan government has expressed deep concern over the DRC’s military build-up near its border, emphasizing the strain this places on regional peace processes and the potential for increased civilian displacement and conflict.

  • Lethal Violence in January: A Congolese soldier was shot dead after crossing into Rwanda and engaging with a border patrol unit. Additionally, Rwandan authorities are dealing with the death of a key witness linked to a genocide trial. Furthermore, a catastrophic building collapse in the Nyabihu district resulted in 43 fatalities, underscoring critical issues regarding building safety and emergency responses within the country.

  • Non-lethal Violence in February: Recent reports indicate a surge in conflict involving Rwanda, with allegations of its support for the M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo leading to significant unrest and displacement in the Nord-Kivu province. Additionally, Rwanda was implicated in a drone and bombing attack on the Goma International Airport in North Kivu, exacerbating tensions between the two countries.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.