This document summarizes early-stage research on shifts in transportation modalities, focusing primarily on the World Health Organization’s HEAT assessment and an introductory look at The Rapid transit system. This document serves as an exploratory guide, and any conclusions drawn from this document should be viewed as guide posts for future research rather than definitive endpoints.
The Health Economic Assement Tool from the WHO is designed to estimate the economic value of reduced mortality resulting from regular walking and cycling. It provides a standardized method to assess the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of investments in active transport infrastructure and interventions. In our application, we used it to develop a benefit-cost ratio to understand the value of increased investment in cycling and walking infrastructures.
The efficacy of this assessment is dependent on the quality of the inputs. There are a number of adjustable factors in this tool, all of which are aggregated to produce a final output. In general, the economic value assessed here is related to a metric called the Value of Statistical Life, which is essentially a metric indicating how much an individual would be willing to pay to reduce their own probability of mortality marginally. The HEAT tool accounts for various ways that walking and cycling decrease mortality (fewer accidents, less pollution, more exercise, etc.) and quantifies that using the VSL.
The table below shows the full output of the HEAT Assessment. It’s dense and difficult to read, so here is a brief summary of the parameters used and the output:
HEAT Assessment Output:
Part of our exploration into transportation modalities involves
considering The Rapid and its use in the Grand Rapids area. Examining
the Rapid’s
Budget, it is clear that revenue from ridership is not a major
driver of their financial viability (pun… intended?). However, we have
begun to develop a framework for how increasing population density could
increase overall ridership, and perhaps encourage more frequent stops
along corridors.
As Population Density Increases - How
Might Utilization Increase?
The table above shows population density increasing in 1%
increments, along with the potential concurrent increase in
utilization/ridership.
Note: This is based on the hypothesis that increased density generally leads to increased utilization of public transit systems. Further sources and research are needed to validate this.
Questions Needed to Further Validate this Model:
The following public transit programs have been noted as successful and occur in cities comparable to Grand Rapids: