Análisis temporal

library(rio)
library(ggplot2)
library(ggcorrplot)
library(reticulate)

## 
## Attaching package: 'reticulate'

## The following object is masked from 'package:rio':
## 
##     import

use_python("C:/Users/Charles/anaconda3")

rm(list = ls())

obraslink= "https://github.com/Pepix2345/Proyecto-Magallanes/raw/main/Trabajo%20de%20investigaci%C3%B3n/data/obras_long.pkl"

pd<-import("pandas")

obrastats<- pd$read_pickle(obraslink)

str(obrastats)

## 'data.frame':    41 obs. of  4 variables:
##  $ ano      : num  2002 2008 2010 2010 2011 ...
##  $ modalidad: chr  "Contrata" "Contrata" "Administracion directa" "Contrata" ...
##  $ variable : chr  "casesum" "casesum" "casesum" "casesum" ...
##  $ value    : num  1 4 2 6 7 9 15 15 25 21 ...
##  - attr(*, "pandas.index")=RangeIndex(start=0, stop=41, step=1)

graf1= ggplot(data=obrastats,
               aes(x=ano,y=value,color=modalidad)) + theme_light() +
    scale_y_log10(labels=scales::comma)
graf1 +    
    geom_smooth()  + 
    facet_grid(variable~.,scales = 'free_y') 

## `geom_smooth()` using method = 'loess' and formula = 'y ~ x'

## Warning in simpleLoess(y, x, w, span, degree = degree, parametric = parametric,
## : span too small.  fewer data values than degrees of freedom.

## Warning in simpleLoess(y, x, w, span, degree = degree, parametric = parametric,
## : at 2017

## Warning in simpleLoess(y, x, w, span, degree = degree, parametric = parametric,
## : radius 0.000225

## Warning in simpleLoess(y, x, w, span, degree = degree, parametric = parametric,
## : all data on boundary of neighborhood. make span bigger

## Warning in simpleLoess(y, x, w, span, degree = degree, parametric = parametric,
## : pseudoinverse used at 2017

## Warning in simpleLoess(y, x, w, span, degree = degree, parametric = parametric,
## : neighborhood radius 0.015

## Warning in simpleLoess(y, x, w, span, degree = degree, parametric = parametric,
## : reciprocal condition number 1

## Warning in simpleLoess(y, x, w, span, degree = degree, parametric = parametric,
## : at 2020

## Warning in simpleLoess(y, x, w, span, degree = degree, parametric = parametric,
## : radius 0.000225

## Warning in simpleLoess(y, x, w, span, degree = degree, parametric = parametric,
## : all data on boundary of neighborhood. make span bigger

## Warning in simpleLoess(y, x, w, span, degree = degree, parametric = parametric,
## : There are other near singularities as well. 0.000225

## Warning in simpleLoess(y, x, w, span, degree = degree, parametric = parametric,
## : zero-width neighborhood. make span bigger
## Warning in simpleLoess(y, x, w, span, degree = degree, parametric = parametric,
## : zero-width neighborhood. make span bigger

## Warning: Failed to fit group 4.
## Caused by error in `predLoess()`:
## ! NA/NaN/Inf en llamada a una función externa (arg 5)