Six steps of MSE

1 Agree Management Objectives and develop quantitative performance metrics

2 Identify what Information is known about the resource, including major Uncertainties

3 Conditioning Operating Models

4 Identify Candidate Management Procedures, e.g. model based v. empirical

5 Run Simulations

6 Compare Performance, evaluate tradeoffs, and select strategy that best achieves management objectives

FLR

Oven Ready              or                Back to Basics

FLR

A collection of tools for quantitative fisheries science, developed in the R language, that facilitates the construction of bio-economic simulation models of fisheries systems.

FLR

Packages

Things of relevance

• Conditioning of OMs

  • Benchark Assessment?
  • Ensemble of Models
  • Operating Model with Alternative Hypotheses

• Climate or Multispecies

• Linking with Ecosystem models

  • Tactical (e.g. MiCe)
    
  • Strategic (e.g. EwE)

• Management Procedures

  • model based
  • empirical

• Objectives,

  • Reference Points
  • Performance Metrics
  • Ecological Reference Points

Management Procedures

ICES Advice

• ICES Cat 1 and 2 Model Based Advice Rule
• ICES Cat 3 Empirical RFB Rule

Climate Conditioned Advice

\(F_{eco}\)              or                                                    Risk Equivalence

NE Atlantic Mackerel

Stress Test

NE Atlantic Mackerel

Performance

NE Atlantic Mackerel

Management Objectives & Performance metrics

Indian Ocean Albacore

Uncertainties

Estimation Error or Model Error

Indian Ocean Albacore

Production Functions

Indian Ocean Albacore

Recruitment Deviates

Indian Ocean Albacore

Process Error

Indian Ocean Albacore

Uncertainties

Validation of indicators

• Length Based Indicators
• Indices of Abundance
• Relative Harvest Rate
• Spatial Indicators

MSE

Linking Single Species MSE and Ecosystem Models

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ICES ASC

Comparative Evaluation of Model-Based and Empirical Indicators under Climate Change Scenarios for Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management

Authors: Laurence Kell, Massimiliano Cardinale, Iago Mosqueira, Christopher Griffiths

The increasing recognition of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems calls for dynamic and adaptive fisheries management strategies. Therefore, this study assesses the use of model-based estimates and empirical indicators for providing climate conditioned advice as part of the ecosystem-approach to fisheries management (EAFM). We use the Stock Synthesis 3 (SS3) framework to condition Operating Models by including time-variant parameters based on strategic ecosystem information. We then evaluate the skill of a suite of model based estimates indicators to detect trends in productivity. … Our findings aim to guide the development of resilient and climate-adaptive management strategies for fisheries, underscoring the importance of integrating model-based and empirical indicators into EAFM.