Insights

  • 16% increase in starters. 6% above market expectation compared to 4% above market expectation last season

  • 21% increase in prize money per runner so far for the season with an increase in total prize by 41% (+$12.7 million)

Distance Analysis

Insights

  • Performing well against market expectation in each of the categories with a level win rate. Interestingly sprinters have placed at 46% versus milers & stayers placing at 36% which suggests there could have been some unlucky starters over the sprint distance which is expected given the increased level of variance in finishing margins in a sprinting race

State Analysis

Insights

  • Starters in VIC have remained constant with a slight decrease in win & place rate
  • NSW has shown a tremendous area of growth yet again up 78% on this time last year as well as an improvement in win rate increasing from 14.9 to 16.8%

Track Condition Analysis

Insights

  • Something interesting to note is that there has been a lot less involvment on the heavy tracks which delivered a 24% win rate last season with a third of the runners this season, 56, down from 180.

Age Analysis

Insights

  • Crop of 3YO in 2022/23 (This season 4YO looked to perform strongly). Been an increase in 2YO starters this season, with an increase in performance too.

Race Prize Analysis

Insights

  • Aligned with the CMR strategic plan, there has been a shift to competing less in <$30k races, and a shift to higher prize money races. This may have come at a cost as an overall win rate.

Race Prize by State Analysis

Insights

  • Breaking down the starts by category of race prize for VIC & NSW, can see a super shift in both minimising the amount of <$30k races competed in. Interestingly in Victoria, the win rate has come down greatly from 27% last season to 17% this season

  • The placement in the <$30k in NSW this season has been tremendous winning at 44%.

Maiden Race Placement Against Prize

Insights

Prep Runs Analysis

Insights

  • Decrease in performance first up from 19%W to 13%W this season. Further analysis may be required to look into why this may be the case here

  • Increasing 6th up+ figures have decreased here showing a 9% win rate this season compared to 21% last season. Further work required to dig deeper but could this be a matter of fatigue, increase average in jumpouts? The drop in place % compared with the actual to expected wins ratio remaining in line for this makes it less likely to be an unluckly factor

Days Between Runs Analysis

Days Between Runs As Pre Stage of Preparation

Insights

  • Theres is a small shift as per discussed at the end of last season to now running horses with a week less break deeper into a prep (4th up and later), with fourth up runners have 11-17 days between runs 27% up on previous seasons figure of 23%. Results have been strong in this pbracket winning at 20%

  • This however may be the cost at which that there has been a drop in 6th up performance. Further investigation is required.

Weight Analysis

Insights

  • Interesting change in placement of horses 60kg+ with decrease from 18% to 12.6% which generally reflects horses not going up in grade (eg. up in weight in same class as prior)

Distance Change Analysis

Insights

  • 22/23 season performed well in the bracket dropping back 200m, similar pattern in 23/24 exceed market expectation by 18%

  • Nothing too alarming of note for 23/24 season, monitor as sample grows for 201-400m bracket to ensure win % is consistent

Track Analysis

Jockey Analysis

Barrier Analysis

Insights

  • Further analysis required here to look at running style against barrier to analyse map strategies (eg. leader drawn wide vs leader drawn inside)

Stakes v Benchmark Race Analysis

Insights

  • Huge improvement against expected in benchmark racing so far this season beating expectation by 8% whereas this time last year was beating expectation by 4%
  • Slightly against market expectation so far this season for stakes races

Stakes Race Analysis

Insights

  • Whilst Group 1s have been less (only by 1 thanks to Bella this weekend), the Group 2 wins have doubled whilst the Group 3 wins have increase by 50%

Settling Position Analysis

Insights

  • Leaders yet again a strong performer, win rate up to 27% this season after being 24% last season
  • Interesting uplift in horses settling at the back from 8.7%, up on 5.5%

Race Pace Analysis

Insights

  • Interestingly a flip has occurred here from slow to fast in terms of win rate. Would like to dig deeper into the faster run races this season to look at tactical position during these races.