Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update
Introduction
We have updated data and forecasts for Belarus, Hungary, India, Malaysia, Moldova, Sri Lanka, Uzbekistan, Angola, Cameroon, Ghana, Indonesia, Morocco, Mozambique, Nepal, Paraguay, Peru, South Sudan, Tunisia, Uganda. We are not forecasting any major events.
In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.
We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.
MLP Website: here
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Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here
Belarus
Belarus’s results are password protected. Please email for access.
Hungary
For Hungary, our data includes coverage through February 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of November 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Defamation Cases in December: Gábor Jancsó was found guilty of defamation for making derogatory comments against LGBTQI event participants during the 2018 Budapest Pride Festival and charged for slandering his brother-in-law by associating him with criminal activity. The case involving Dénes Kiss and Boróka Parászka shed light on the challenges of addressing and proving defamation stemming from accusations of physical aggression on social media, underscoring the evolving nature of defamation disputes tied to digital platforms.
Legal Changes in December: Parliament’s adoption of critical two-thirds laws, including amendments to the Fundamental Law to underline national sovereignty and modify the electoral system, signaled a major shift in the country’s political sphere. Additionally, Hungary moved towards greener energy solutions by easing legal conditions for wind turbine constructions, aligning with wider European sustainability practices.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Moldova
For Moldova, our data includes coverage through February 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of November 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
- Protests in February: Moldova witnessed a series of protests centered around issues such as agriculture subsidies, new regulations, and government policies. Various groups came together to express their grievances during these protests.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
India
For India, our data includes coverage through February 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of November 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Censorship in February: The Indian government extended mobile internet suspension in parts of Punjab and Haryana amidst farmers’ protests and the ban on two factions of the Muslim Conference Jammu & Kashmir under the UAPA. Similarly, the enforcement of Section 144 in Sandeshkhali, West Bengal, to prevent unrest, and the request to block social media accounts linked to the farmers’ protest, reflect efforts to control communication during political disturbances.
Corruption in February: A vigilance team discovered a substantial recruitment fraud linked to fake job promises in Mumbai, while in Odisha, a senior MLA was arrested for alleged money laundering concerning land irregularities. Investigations were launched into alleged corruption in government procurement in Haryana, as well as into accusations of misconduct within the sports governance in Tripura. The judiciary also showed its concern over political unrest in West Bengal. Furthermore, officials in Delhi and Jharkhand were targeted for bribery and financial fraud, indicating an ongoing crackdown on corruption. Additionally, probes were conducted into allegations of land fraud involving a Rajya Sabha MP, and an inquiry was set up to investigate irregularities within Karnataka’s IT services sector.
Defamation Cases in December: The Delhi High Court asked a Union Minister to respond to an appeal against his summoning in a defamation case, underscoring the ongoing political tensions between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress. Similarly, the Madras High Court quashed a defamation case concerning freedom of speech and land rights and the Supreme Court ordered an IPS officer to remove defamatory social media posts against an IAS officer. Additionally, the Ahmadabad Court’s rejection of a plea for adjournment in a case involving remarks on the Prime Minister’s educational qualifications, the dismissal of a plea challenging a summons in a defamation case, and several High Courts staying proceedings in defamation disputes, all illustrate the complicated nature of defamation laws.
Legal Actions in December and February: The Punjab and Haryana High Court’s directive for a comprehensive investigation into a drug racket operating from Ferozpur Central Jail flagged potential complicity by jail officials. Similarly, FIRs were filed against supervisors and a manager at a Delhi government hospital, responding to complaints of sexual harassment against sanitation workers. High-profile legal proceedings included the Bombay High Court granting Dheeraj Wadhawan interim medical bail and a special court in Delhi criticizing a Special Public Prosecutor for not attending hearings related to Sharjeel Imam’s trial. Elsewhere, the judiciary’s engagement continued with the Delhi High Court’s dealings in the Aircel-Maxis case involving the Chidambarams, arrests linked to a security breach in the Parliament, the ED’s charge sheet against AAP MP Sanjay Singh, and probes against Jharkhand’s Chief Minister Hemant Soren in a land scam case. The Enforcement Directorate’s interventions, notably against Farooq Abdullah for alleged misappropriation of funds and the arrest of former Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren over an alleged land scam, emphasized the agency’s active role in investigating corruption within political ranks. The Supreme Court issued a stay on trial proceedings against Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and a Delhi court granted bail to Bihar’s Rabri Devi and her family in a money laundering case.
Legal Changes in December and February: The government introduced bills to replace the Indian Penal Code, Code of Criminal Procedure, and the Indian Evidence Act. Simultaneously, the passage of the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation (Second Amendment) Bill, 2023, aimed add seats to its Legislative Assembly. There was also the adoption of a new mechanism for appointing election commissioners through the Chief Election Commissioner and Other Election Commissioners Bill underscores. The Supreme Court decided to annul the Electoral Bonds Scheme due to concerns over its impact on the right to information and the potential for quid pro quo arrangements. Furthermore, legislative modifications in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha to updated the list of Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs).
Security Force Mobilization in December and January: There was heightened security in Srinagar and Jammu & Kashmir ahead of a critical Supreme Court verdict and extensive police deployment in Mumbai for New Year’s Eve celebrations to ensure public safety. The Indian Army’s deployment of camels for logistical support in Ladakh and the intensified patrols along the Line of Control in Kashmir were steps taken to bolster border security. An initiative worked to enhance conventional deployment capabilities of the Assam Rifles along the Line of Actual Control. India also deployed a frontline ship in the Gulf of Aden for anti-piracy missions. The establishment of a police outpost in Maharashtra’s Naxal-affected Gadchiroli and there was an upsurge in anti-Maoist operations in Chhattisgarh.
Purge/Replace in December: The suspension of 146 Opposition Members of Parliament was criticized for stifling democratic debate and pushing through controversial legislation. Additionally, Assam witnessed a significant corruption crackdown with the suspension of 21 senior officers for their alleged involvement in a cash-for-jobs scandal. Political reshuffling also took place with the mass induction of nine ministers into the Chhattisgarh cabinet and the resignation of the Madhya Pradesh Congress chief. Meanwhile, in Karnataka and Rajasthan, internal party conflicts led to the expulsion of prominent leaders for anti-party activities and criticism of government formation delays, respectively.
Raids in December and February: The Income Tax Department conducted one of its largest seizures, confiscating over Rs 350 crore in cash and approximately 3 kilograms of gold from an Odisha-based distillery group linked to a prominent politician. The National Investigation Agency arrested 13 individuals in Pune for their involvement in an ISIS terror conspiracy, alongside searches in Bengaluru related to similar terror conspiracy cases. Additionally, there were raids on visa consultant firms across Gujarat and properties associated with illegal immigration. There were also actions against illicit constructions in Delhi, drug syndicates exploiting digital platforms, and corruption in Punjab’s forest department. The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and the Enforcement Directorate (ED) conducted multiple raids across India, targeting former governors, chief ministers’ aides, and business entities in various corruption, money laundering, and financial fraud investigations. These actions included probes into the Kiru Hydropower project, the Delhi Jal Board, the Public Distribution System (PDS) scam, and others. Additionally, the National Investigation Agency’s (NIA) searches in Punjab and Rajasthan aimed at disrupting terror-criminal networks, along with ED’s investigation into the online betting app case and a substantial bank loan fraud.
Non-lethal Violence in January: The Indian Navy’s operation in the Arabian Sea led to the successful evacuation of crew members from a hijacked vessel. There were also instances of violence against law enforcement personnel, as seen in West Bengal with the attack on Enforcement Directorate officers and the assault on Manipur security personnel by suspected militants. Communal tensions were also evident through clashes in Maharashtra during a consecration ceremony procession, and the assault in Karnataka related to an interfaith relationship, highlighting the deeply entrenched societal divides. Moreover, incidents of violence occurred during religious processions, attacks by Maoist insurgents on infrastructure projects, and ethnic violence in Manipur reveal the complex layer of challenges faced by the country.
Forecasting
In our last report, our models predicted an increase in reporting Non-lethal Violence in Q1 2024. Consistent with our prediction, we saw an increase in reporting on Non-lethal Violence in January 2024.
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Indonesia
For Indonesia, our data includes coverage through February 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of November 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in December and January: A book was launched documenting alleged human rights violations by Prabowo Subianto, and nationwide commemorations of Anti-Corruption and Human Rights Day took place. Presidential debates highlighted human rights issues leading up to the 2024 elections. Relief efforts for natural disaster victims and advocacy for Rohingya refugees showcased the role of political activism and civil society in humanitarian efforts. In January, Student activists in Ciputat distributed pamphlets against political dynasties, expressing concerns over nepotism and advocating for political transparency. Grassroots support was evident with over three thousand volunteers rallying for presidential candidate Pranowo in Krantren Gedongsari, and volunteers responded to the abuse faced by Pranowo-Mahfud MD’s campaigners in Boyolali and Sleman. Jambi activists mobilized to assist flood victims, demonstrating community resilience. The Cross-Activist of the Straight Generation Reform 98 called for President Jokowi’s neutrality during elections, reflecting a desire for unbiased presidential influence. Environmental issues were also addressed, with protests against nickel smelting pollution in Southeast Sulawesi. In Mataram City, volunteers for Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin supported tourism initiatives, while efforts for community welfare included free health services and UMKM workshops.
Legal Changes in December: The Jakarta Special Region Act was proposed, suggesting the presidential appointment of Jakarta’s governor and deputy governor instead of direct elections. Efforts to amend the Constitutional Court Act faced opposition due to concerns over judicial independence. The Indonesian House of Representatives passed a second amendment to the Information and Electronic Transactions Act to promote a more ethical online environment and protect national interests. New tax regulations on cigarettes were introduced to address health and revenue concerns. President Jokowi emphasized the importance of the Asset Recovery Act to strengthen anti-corruption efforts. Other legislative discussions included debates over the 2024 election debate format, a push for the digitalization of governmental services via an Electronic Government System, raising Jakarta’s entertainment tax, government objections to changes in the Constitutional Court Law, and the swift legalization of an alcohol prohibition bill.
- Raids in December: Authorities conducted raids on pornographic establishments in South Jakarta and a nightclub in North Jakarta involved in drug trafficking. Specific individuals were targeted for corruption related to road supply projects in East Kalimantan and extortion within government ranks in South Jakarta. Additional efforts addressed illegal communication networks among Rohingya refugees in Banda Aceh and unregulated businesses in South Tangerang. A raid in Central Lombok resulted in the arrest of a female legislative candidate and her accomplices for narcotics distribution. Investigations also extended to potential criminal cases within educational institutions following a suspected body discovery on a campus.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Malaysia
For Malaysia, our data includes coverage through February 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of November 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Censorship in December and January: The Communications and Digital Ministry announced the blocking of social media content and websites seen as compromising public morals, citing the promotion of sex products and deviant sexual practices as reasons behind these measures. The government considered a request to censor the “Man on the Run” documentary on Netflix, related to the 1MDB scandal involving former Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak. Concurrently, the Court of Appeal upheld a ban on the book “Gay is OK! A Christian Perspective.” Additionally, the ban on the screening and publicity of the film “Mentega Terbang” prompted its creators to seek judicial review.
Corruption in January: Former Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak was implicated in a trial concerning the misappropriation of over RM2 billion from the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) funds. The Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) arrested two former enforcement officers for accepting bribes and freezing several accounts holding tens of millions related to a government contract. Additionally, key political and corporate figures, such as Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman and Sophia Chin Wai Lan, faced legal proceedings for criminal breach of trust, misappropriation of funds, and money laundering.
Purge/Replace in December: Key cabinet positions saw reshuffling, including the introduction of Datuk Seri Amir Hamzah Azizan as Finance Minister II. Significant changes also occurred within federal and party positions, with replacements and removals such as V. Sivakumar’s substitution by Steven Sim as the Human Resources Minister, and Isham Jalil being removed from the Umno supreme council.
Raids in January: Authorities conducted a raid linked to a RM4 5 billion corruption case involving government vehicle procurement. A significant operation in Johor Baru led to the dismantling of a major drug trafficking network, with drugs worth RM2 735 million seized and eight arrests made. Efforts to curb smuggling were highlighted by the seizure of a freighter in Johor for smuggling subsidized diesel. Nationwide raids on entertainment outlets resulted in 477 arrests, demonstrating a widespread campaign against vice activities. There was a rescue of 21 Bangladeshi men from forced labor conditions and the seizure of a large quantity of counterfeit medication and subsidized fuel in separate raids. There was an operation to confiscate of assets worth more than RM7 million from a drug syndicate in Sabah under anti-money laundering laws and the busting of syndicates promoting sexual services and exploiting illegal immigrants.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Nepal
For Nepal, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of December 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Corruption in February and March: The Special Court ruled against a former lawmaker in the Civil Savings and Credit Cooperative Limited case for a significant financial crime. Investigations into Century Commercial Bank’s former executives revealed irregularities in loan issuance without adequate collateral, leading to arrests. Corruption charges were filed in connection with the Melamchi Drinking Water Project, while embezzlement issues at the Mata Pathibhara Cooperative and the Lalita Niwas land grab case highlighted problems in cooperative and land management. There were also cases of cooperative fraud and gold smuggling involving prominent individuals. The Commission for Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) filed graft cases in the healthcare and telecommunications sectors, reflecting systemic corruption.
Defamation Cases in January: President of the Rastriya Swatantra Party filed a lawsuit against Kantipur Publications Limited, accusing the media outlet of publishing defamatory content against him. Additionally, the Cyber Bureau of Nepal Police took legal action against individuals on social media who attempted to disclose the identity of a rape victim associated with cricketer Sandeep Lamichhane.
Legal Changes in February: The Second Amendment Bill 2080 has been introduced to revise laws governing political parties. There have been amendments to the Money Laundering Prevention Act, which have drawn criticism concerning the potential legalization of illicit wealth through taxation. The House of Representatives unanimously approved a bill on anti-money laundering. The Political Parties (Second Amendment) Bill reintroduces provisions to strengthen the legislative framework for political parties, revisiting aspects of the Political Parties Act of 2017.
Purge/Replace in March: Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal restructured the cabinet by adding new ministers from various parties and removed the Nepali Congress from the government. At the provincial level, changes included the dismissal of Nepali Congress ministers in Madhesh by the Chief Minister, and the appointment of a controversial figure as a minister in Gandaki.
Raids in January: Police raids in Kathmandu targeted the residences of significant figures, including a religious leader found with substantial sums of money and multiple currencies, and a businessman’s home where documents detailing illegal financial transactions were seized. A hotel involved in a major gold smuggling case was also raided.
Lethal Violence in January: Clashes in Balkumari, Lalitpur during a protest against employment policies resulted in the deaths of two youths. Domestic issues included a fatal police shooting during a protest in Sarlahi District, prompting calls for officer accountability.
Forecasting
In our last report, our models predicted an increase in reporting Legal Changes in Q1 2024. We saw a small spike in reporting on Legal Changes in Q1 2024. We are no longer predicting an increase in reporting on Legal Actions in Q2 2024.
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Sri Lanka
For Sri Lanka, our data includes coverage through February 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of November 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Corruption in December and February: Operations like ‘Yukthiya’ led to the arrest of tens of thousands of suspects for drug trafficking and organized crime, resulting in the seizure of vast amounts of narcotics and assets worth millions. There were high-profile cases, such as the involvement of Public Security Minister Tiran Alles in the Pandora Papers for owning properties through offshore companies and the procurement of fake Immunoglobulin vials implicating former Health Ministry officials. Additionally, high-profile incidents include the arrest of former Health Minister Keheliya Rambukwella over the procurement of substandard immunoglobulin vials, leading to his resignation as Environment Minister. Investigations have also involved forensic audits, such as the one by KPMG into the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation and Ceylon Petroleum Storage Terminals, revealing losses due to manipulated data. Legal actions were initiated against several individuals in public service, including Department of Motor Traffic employees involved in motor vehicle registration fraud and high-ranking officials of fertilizer companies under investigation for defrauding the state. Further there were arrests related to bribe solicitation by police officers and the involvement of finance ministry officials in a sugar tax scam.
Legal Changes in January and February: The enactment of the Online Safety Bill marked a significant step in regulating digital platforms. Further initiatives included the regulation of the microfinance sector to protect consumers, the launch of a framework for Infrastructure Bonds to foster economic development, the exemption of Ayurvedic products from VAT to promote traditional medicine, and the amendment of the Criminal Procedure Code to enhance justice administration. The government announced the introduction of a National Cyber Security Act and the creation of a related authority. New legislation aimed at increasing oversight of NGOs and expanding child rights protections was advanced.
Security Mobilization in December: Over 7,500 police personnel were deployed for Christmas Day masses in more than 2,300 churches nationwide, marking the largest security force mobilization for religious celebrations in the country’s history. This was part of a broader strategy to ensure safety during festive seasons, which included comprehensive security and traffic plans for New Year 2024 celebrations and special security provisions for churches on December 24 and 25, with army deployment near churches for extra protection. These measures followed concerns lingering from the 2019 Easter Sunday terror attacks. There was continued police presence at the Mihintale temple and the acting Inspector-General of Police’s orders for high alert during a major power outage.
Raids in January: The most significant operation, ‘Yukthiya,’ led by the Police Illegal Assets and Properties Investigation Division, resulted in the confiscation of assets worth Rs. 558.5 million and the arrest of 22,026 suspects within two weeks.
Lethal Violence in January: Notable events included a shooting near the Southern Expressway that resulted in the death of five individuals, among them the leader of the ‘Ape Jana Bala Party’. The assassination of a Buddhist monk by unknown assailants underscored religious tensions and security concerns for religious figures.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Uzbekistan
For Uzbekistan, our data includes coverage through February 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of December 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in January: Environmental activism, marked by the flashmob #TozaHavoKerak, drew attention to the deteriorating air quality, with participation from well-known activists, performers, and bloggers. Environmentalists, supported by the Ministry of Ecology, Environmental Protection, and Climate Change, initiated investigations into the efficacy of air pollution gas purification devices in greenhouse farms within the Tashkent region. Social welfare issues were highlighted through an event where 300 free men’s winter coats were distributed, demonstrating a commitment to addressing poverty.
Censorship in January: The Supreme Court’s decision on January 10, 2024, to ban online materials across major social media networks, including Facebook, Telegram, Instagram, YouTube, Odnoklassniki, and TikTok, citing extremism and terrorism, significantly impacts channels of free expression widely used by the public. Minhojiddin Mirzo’s proposal to restrict radio, television channels, and foreign websites further reflects state-led initiatives to control the media narrative and limit international influence.
Corruption in December: High-profile cases have surfaced involving state officials and employees across various levels and sectors, including a major embezzlement case within the State Customs Committee, corrupt job recruitment practices in Karakalpakstan and Navoi Region, and land fraud schemes. Additionally, instances of bribery within state agencies and the judiciary highlight the widespread nature of corruption.
Defamation Cases in December: Olimjon Haydarov, a blogger and public activist, was sentenced to 8 years of imprisonment on charges of defamation, insult, and extortion. Similarly, Lemara Mirzaakhmedova, who blogged under the pseudonym Emine Karamanova, received a 7.5-year prison sentence facing the same charges.
Legal Actions in December and January: Sentences were handed down to individuals, including a former Minister of Agriculture for embezzlement and abuse of power, and several bloggers for defamation, insult, and extortion, showcasing the state’s crackdown on corruption and digital platform misuse. Efforts to combat corruption were further highlighted by the Anti-Corruption Agency targeting officials engaged in business activities, alongside the prosecution of over 3,575 officials for various offenses, signaling a push towards improved governance and accountability.
Raids in December: Operations across multiple regions, including Samarkand, Namangan, Tashkent, Jizzakh, and Navoi, led to the arrest of individuals involved in drug trafficking, illegal weapon possession, and economic crimes. Significant seizures of narcotics, psychotropic substances, weapons, and illegal mining equipment were made.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Angola
For Angola, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of December 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
- Censorship in February: The Angola Ministry of Communications, following recommendations from the National Council for Audiovisual Regulation (CNRA), mandated a halt to Walf TV’s operations, accusing it of inciting violence, which led to the permanent revocation of its broadcasting license. Additionally, the Angolan government excluded leaders and members of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) from attending a significant parliamentary event.
Legal Actions in January: Isabel dos Santos faces accusations related to her tenure at the state oil company Sonangol, while former vice-president Manuel Vicente is under investigation for active corruption and money laundering in a case known as Operation Fizz. Other notable cases include the trial of former Angolan ambassador to Ethiopia, Arcanjo do Nascimento, for peculate, and criminal proceedings against former governor of Lunda-Sul, Ernesto Kiteculo. Additionally, there was an acquittal of activist Laurinda Gouveia and the indictment of Deputy Virgílio da Ressurreição Tyova by the Supreme Court.
Legal Changes in February: The country banned and criminalized cryptocurrency mining to protect national energy security, imposing strict measures against excessive energy use. Significant administrative changes include the creation of additional provinces and municipalities to enhance public service distribution and state governance. Labor laws were revised to provide better protections and rights for workers, and new regulations were established for environmental conservation areas.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Cameroon
For Cameroon, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of December 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Legal Actions in February and March: The Special Criminal Court initiated a probe into the president of the Cameroonian Football Federation over allegations of mismanagement and misuse of public funds. A journalist was charged with incitement and breach of security after opposing fuel price hikes. The trial concerning the assassination of journalist Martinez Zogo, involving high-profile military and intelligence members, spotlighted press freedom and state accountability. Journalist Bruno Bidjang pleaded guilty to spreading false news, reflecting ongoing tensions regarding the media’s role. Legal complaints against high-ranking officials, including the Secretary General of the Presidency, Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, for illegal governance practices, highlighted allegations of power misuse at the highest government levels.
Legal Changes in March: Minister Paul Atanga Nji prohibited the Alliance for Political Transition (ATP) and the Political Alliance for Change (APC), impacting political dissent and altering the balance of opposition voices within the nation. Concurrently, Maurice Kamto, the national president of the Movement for the Renaissance of Cameroon (MRC), strongly opposed the reordering of the electoral calendar, criticizing the decision to schedule the presidential election ahead of municipal and legislative elections.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Ghana
For Ghana, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of December 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Censorship in January and February: The Asanteman Traditional Council demanded the shutdown of Wontumi Radio and TV due to comments made against the Asantehene and council chiefs. The Ghana Cyber Security Authority banned unlicensed cybersecurity entities, indicating government regulation of the digital space. The Ghana Journalists Association (GJA) imposed a media blackout on a Member of Parliament following an attack on a journalist. The New Patriotic Party issued an internal directive against commenting on derogatory remarks about Manhyia Palace. The National Communications Authority (NCA) shut down four FM radio stations in the Upper East Region for allegedly exacerbating local conflicts, based on recommendations from security councils and the Ministry of National Security. The GJA lifted a media blackout on a government minister following an assault on a journalist. Another media blackout against an MP remains in place. Salt FM was shut down due to a failure to renew its broadcasting license, affecting information flow in several communities.
Legal Changes in February and March: The Parliament passed the Human Sexual Rights and Family Values Act of 2024, commonly known as the anti-LGBT+ bill, criminalizing LGBT activities, advocacy, and funding. The bill awaits the President’s assent pending a Supreme Court case. The Ministry of Finance raised concerns over a potential $3.8 billion loss in World Bank financing due to the bill. The government withdrew a proposed 15% Value Added Tax (VAT) on electricity in response to public dissent. The introduction of the Emissions Levy Act, 2023 (Act 1112), sparked debates on its environmental and fiscal implications. Adjustments to parliamentary procedures and the suspension of VAT on domestic electricity were made. The Trades Union Congress (TUC) initiated a policy to combat forced labor and modern slavery in the fishing sector. The government announced plans to legalize organ donations to enhance healthcare services. The National Communications Authority (NCA) introduced draft guidelines for telecom tariff and billing transparency.
Security Mobilization in January: Approximately 125 heavily armed police officers were deployed in Akyem Asene, a town free of ongoing conflict. The Forestry Commission called for military support to address illegal mining. Police were present at the Begoro Palace in response to unfounded chaos reports. Additionally, the Kofi-Badukrom border was bolstered with Ghana Immigration Service personnel ahead of AFCON 2023. Efforts to maintain electoral peace in New Juaben North followed spiritual incantations at parliamentary primaries. A road safety enforcement exercise took place on National Highway 6, and a sanitation initiative was led by the 10 Mechanized Battalion in Wa.
Lethal Violence in January: In the Bawku Municipality, an unidentified group opened fire near a police station, resulting in one death and five injuries. In the Upper East Region, a mass shooting by unknown gunmen on a bus killed six passengers and wounded seven others. Violence in Bawku continued, with three more individuals reported dead, attributed to soldiers, according to Mahama Ayariga, bringing the total fatalities to five. In the Ashanti Region, a mason killed three people, including his partner and two children. The region also saw a communal clash in Bronkong and Afrancho, resulting in three deaths. Internal strife within the National Democratic Congress led to the assault of its National Chairman by party supporters. In Bolgatanga, Alhassan Azumah, a university deputy registrar, was assassinated by unknown assailants. Electoral violence has been criticized for undermining Ghana’s democracy, as highlighted by the Alliance for Christian Advocacy Africa. Additionally, a young mother was allegedly killed by a fetish priest on New Year’s Eve.
Non-lethal Violence in January: Political tensions were evident with the alleged attack on a journalist by an MP during the NPP parliamentary primaries and the assault on the Northern Regional Treasurer of the National Democratic Congress by a party official. Public safety concerns arose from an armed robbery on a bus route from Kumasi to Accra and a violent confrontation between police and the Ghana Cocoa Board’s anti-illegal mining unit.Localized conflicts and land use disputes also emerged, with early morning violence in the Ashanti Region and ongoing criticism towards Electrochem Ghana Limited. Issues surrounding financial crimes and the security of educational institutions were highlighted by the assault on a trial witness in a high-profile case and vandalism at a technical institute.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Morocco
For Morocco, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of December 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
- Corruption in January and February: In Morocco, multiple corruption-related incidents have been reported across various sectors. Seven soldiers faced investigation by the King’s Procurator-General for allegedly accepting bribes from an international drug network, compromising military integrity. A bank employee was charged with embezzling a substantial sum, indicating financial misconduct within the banking industry. The corruption scandal also involved parliamentarians and contractors, leading to a border closure against businessmen suspected of misappropriating public funds. Additionally, members of law enforcement, including auxiliary forces, were implicated in bribery and drug trafficking. Local governance issues were evident, as a village group head was arrested for embezzlement. Morocco ranked 97th in Transparency International’s corruption perceptions index. Other incidents include corruption in the issuance of economic licenses, food supply chains, and suspected money laundering through contractor networks, suggesting a pervasive corruption problem affecting military, banking, political, law enforcement, and commercial sectors. In a broad legal crackdown, a former finance inspector in Rabat was sentenced for bribery, the deputy mayor of Fez and a Regional Treasury staff member in Al-Hacimah were imprisoned for corruption and embezzlement, respectively. The Fez Court of Appeal penalized several individuals for construction project irregularities, and the Constitutional Court removed five parliamentarians. A healthcare professional was also penalized for issuing false medical certificates, and members of the auxiliary forces were jailed for collusion with smuggling networks. The Moroccan Society for the Protection of Public Money took action against financial imbalances in Taroudant.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Mozambique
For Mozambique, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of December 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Legal Actions in February: In Mozambique, the judiciary has been involved in addressing several significant legal issues. The Central Office for the Fight Against Corruption investigated Mozambique Airlines for alleged corruption in fleet management and financial irregularities. The Inhambane Judicial Court sentenced two individuals for abduction, murder, and trafficking of human organs. Additionally, the Order of Lawyers of Mozambique addressed unlicensed legal practice. These actions are part of the judiciary’s recent activities in the country.
Purge/Replace in February: In Mozambique, February 2024 saw administrative and diplomatic changes. President Filipe Nyusi dismissed the ambassadors to Japan and the UAE, potentially indicating shifts in diplomatic strategy. The government also expelled an Angolan citizen accused of drug trafficking and escaping prison, along with three others facing similar charges, as part of its efforts to enforce international law and oppose drug trafficking. Additionally, the arbitrary transfer of seven teachers in Vilankulo district suggests internal adjustments that may affect local education. The government also retracted the new Table of Emoluments for Registries and Notaries in response to public dissatisfaction.
Raids in February: In central Mozambique, unidentified individuals, including a reported police officer and a soldier, raided the Manica Provincial Office for the Fight against Corruption, stealing computers and criminal files. This incident impacted the country’s anti-corruption efforts. Concurrently, the Republic of Mozambique Police (PRM) carried out an operation in Zambia, deactivating an arsenal and seizing ammunition, rockets, and mines.
Non-lethal Violence in February: In February in Mozambique, Islamist terrorists caused the closure of several district offices in Cabo Delgado due to severe violence, leading to legal service disruptions and mass displacements. The region also saw changes in terrorist tactics, including attempts to divert government forces and expansion of operational areas, which resulted in further community displacements and a humanitarian crisis, with the International Organization for Migration reporting 812 people fleeing within five days. Mozambican forces continued to engage terrorists in various districts. Additionally, urban areas, particularly Maputo, faced security issues with harassment by ride-hailing service drivers and a series of kidnappings targeting businessmen, as well as significant financial and infrastructural damages from theft and vandalism.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
South Sudan
For South Sudan, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of December 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in January: Youth from Bor, Duk, and Twic East Counties in Jonglei State mobilized for government action on security issues, while criticisms were directed towards Juba City Council for inadequate waste management. Efforts to promote democratic processes included Yakani’s engagement with the government on election planning. Educators in Northern Bhar El Ghazal demanded the release of deducted salaries. Initiatives for tree planting to combat environmental degradation were launched. Political parties protested against increased registration fees for provisional registration, viewing it as a barrier to democratic engagement. Civil society organizations focused on land rights and environmental issues appealed for action against land grabbing and for investments in tree-planting initiatives. Concerns about political appointments and the lack of adherence to the stipulated 35% women representation in government roles were raised, alongside calls for respecting the election timeline and implementing transitional justice and reconciliation measures.
Censorship in January: National security personnel confiscated media accreditations from two journalists, including a representative for media organizations, in the lead-up to the 2024 general elections. The Ministry of Information and Communication in Jonglei State also mandated that all public announcements require prior approval, which impacts information dissemination.
Raids in March: Security forces cracked down on suspected illegal foreign currency traders to address economic instability. In Northern Bahr el Ghazal State, authorities destroyed over 10,000 bottles of banned hard liquor.
Lethal Violence in January and February: In the Abyei Administrative Area, over 50 people, including peacekeepers and civilians, were killed. In Duk County, Jonglei State, a cattle raiding incident resulted in 28 deaths and 18 injuries. Additionally, an ambush resulted in the deaths of a deputy chief and five others. Conflicts in the Ngok-Twic areas and fighting in Abyei Town also led to numerous civilian casualties. An attack on UNISFA personnel in Abyei and further violence in Jonglei State resulted in nearly 30 lives lost. Other incidents include an attack in Western Bahr el Ghazal by youths from the Apuk section of Warrap State, killing more than 20 people, and a confrontation in Nasir County between civilians and SSPDF forces, resulting in additional deaths and injuries. Over 75 lives were lost in further violence in the Abyei Administrative Area, including two humanitarian workers.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Tunisia
For Tunisia, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of December 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
- Corruption in February: High-profile political figures, including members of the Tunis Court of Appeal and leaders of the Ennahdha movement, were sentenced to three years in prison for offenses such as accepting illegal foreign funding during the 2019 presidential campaign and engaging in corruption.
Legal Actions in January, February and March: Key figures faced legal actions: Rached Ghannouchi and Rafik Abdessalem of the Ennahdha movement were sentenced to three years in prison for corruption. Former President Moncef Marzouki received an eight-year sentence in absentia for social media statements. Cases against other prominent figures included a prison warrant against Aber Musa, President of the Free Constitutional Party, and actions against retired magistrate Béchir Akremi, businessman Jalal Ben Isa, judge Al-Bashir Al-Akrami, and a former Minister of Industry. The postponement of journalist Shfa El Haj Mubarak’s case and the National Union of Tunisian Journalists’ demands for journalist Mohamed Buglab’s release highlighted ongoing media freedom tensions. The legal system issued sentencing related to the assassination of opposition politician Shoukry Belaid.
Legal Changes in February: The country joined the Budapest Convention on Cybercrime and revising laws related to crimes associated with information and communication systems. In environmental conservation, strong parliamentary support emerged for regulating trade in endangered species to protect biodiversity.
Security Mobilization in February: The National Guard halted 170 smuggling operations nationwide, confiscating goods worth millions. Security at Port de la Goulette was enhanced, where individuals were found hidden in a shipping container, aiming to prevent drug trafficking and illegal emigration. Efforts in Tabraba led to the seizure of several significant archaeological artifacts.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Uganda
For Uganda, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of December 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in February and March: Health activists called for increased government funding for condom distribution to combat the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Environmental concerns have been raised through protests against the diversion of Lake Victoria’s water for rice cultivation and actions against a floating wetland, aimed at preserving water ecosystems and local livelihoods. Economic activism is evident as coffee farmers and dealers in the Masaka Sub Region contest government merger decisions. In the area of environmental conservation, Fairventures Worldwide, in partnership with Kyambogo University, planted 600 trees to mark the international day for forests, focusing on combating climate change. Local farmers in Kigezi resisted governmental directives on wetland use, emphasizing environmental and governance concerns. Civil society is advocating for a tax waiver on sanitary pads to address women’s health rights, and there is a push for gender-disaggregated data to better address women’s challenges. Public health advocates have called for a complete ban on tobacco products, and human trafficking issues have been spotlighted by activists who identify funding and corruption as major challenges. Conservation efforts also include strong resistance against the potential giveaway of Bugoma Forest.
Censorship in February: The General Court Martial ejected journalists from bail application hearings for National Unity Platform supporters, while the High Court imposed a temporary injunction against a Uganda Law Society meeting intended to discuss judicial independence. Additionally, the High Court ruled against the imposition of a trade license fee for media houses by local authorities. Other incidents include the prevention of opposition legislators from accessing a publicly funded construction site and an internal dispute within the Uganda Muslim Supreme Council concerning representation.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Paraguay
For Paraguay, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of December 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Civic Activism in February: The “Chau nepotismo” initiative, which aims to combat nepotism within public service, garnered over 48,321 signatures, reflecting strong public support for reform in government hiring practices. Environmental activists protested against Resolution No. 38 by the Ministry of Environment, which permitted the expansion of sports hunting to mammals. The Paraguayan Pyahurã Party (PPP) supported families during national Women’s Day, addressing gender inequalities, and the “Golden February” campaign provided aid to oncology patients, particularly children, in response to gaps in governmental healthcare.
Censorship in February: MP Norma Aquino ratified a complaint against journalist Letizia Medina over a political satire video. Government spokesperson Paula Carro restricted access to her social media accounts following criticism.
Legal Actions in March: Investigations are ongoing against President Mario Abdo Benítez and his associates for corruption. Legal proceedings against a journalist for insult raise concerns about press freedom. Additionally, former public defenders and government officials are under scrutiny for misconduct and alleged fraud.
Legal Changes in February: The Supreme Court of Electoral Justice made adjustments to the Electoral Code, targeting technical improvements to streamline electoral processes for the 2026 municipal elections. Additionally, new laws related to arms control and renewable energy were enacted to enhance national security and promote environmental sustainability, respectively.
Protests in February: Paraguay experienced protests centered on concerns such as public sector nepotism, environmental issues, and deficiencies in public services.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Peru
For Peru, our data includes coverage through March 2023. Since the data was last updated through the end of December 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
Corruption in February: Key operations led to the dismantling of ‘The Untouchables of Corruption’ network, resulting in the arrest of several officials and implicating a former president. Investigations revealed corruption in the army and the Ministry of Transport and Communications, focusing on fuel theft and administrative misconduct, respectively. High-level corruption cases involved the suspended prosecutor of the Nation and several congressmen, financial misconduct at Petroperú, and corruption accusations against the Minister of the Interior. Accusations of collusion and price manipulation were also directed at Routes of Lima, a public-private partnership. The Odebrecht scandal continued, implicating another former president, while a constitutional complaint targeted a former congressman for illicit enrichment. Additionally, a significant number of police officers were found guilty of serious offenses, indicating widespread corruption within the National Police.
Legal Actions in January, February, and March: Former presidential candidate Keiko Fujimori began oral trials, facing charges including money laundering and involvement in a criminal organization. Appeals from former President Pedro Castillo were rejected amid investigations into his alleged participation in rebellion and criminal organization activities. The extradition of former President Alberto Fujimori was extended, highlighting ongoing concerns about past human rights violations. Investigations also touched current officials, including the Minister of Housing for irregular hiring practices, and legislative actions to investigate legislators in the ‘Los Niños’ case. Investigations extended to President Dina Buluarte for undeclared assets, and former President Alejandro Toledo sought freedom to face his trial. A constitutional complaint was filed against ex-Prime Minister Carlos Morán Soto, and a parliamentary inquiry targeted the Minister of Energy and Mines, Rómulo Mucho, for potential conflicts of interest. The ethics committee investigated Congressman Raúl Doroteo for salary discrepancies, and former regional president César Álvarez received a 19-year prison sentence for money laundering.
Security Mobilization in March: During Holy Week in Lima, over 21,000 officers and 1,500 members of the Serenazgo were mobilized to ensure the safety of citizens and tourists. Additionally, a major raid involving more than 170 officers targeted nightclubs in Independence, exposing a prostitution network operating under the guise of legitimate businesses. At the start of the school year, 20,500 officers were deployed to 36,660 schools nationwide to safeguard educational environments.
Purge/Replace in January, February and March: The President replaced the commander general of the Peruvian National Police following an assault incident. The Ethics Committee of Congress suspended a congressman for misogynistic comments. There were numerous resignations and dismissals within high-level positions in the Ministry of Housing and Sanitation, the Ministry of the Interior, and the Ministry of Defence, often linked to internal investigations or public criticism. Additionally, over a dozen police generals were reassigned. Other significant changes included the resignation of the president and directors of Petroperú, a major overhaul in the Ombudsman’s office with the departure of all nine deputies, and the resignation of the head of Corpac following operational issues at Jorge Chávez International Airport.
Raids in January and March: The Task Force against Corruption in Power (EFICCOP) conducted a series of raids targeting corruption within the country’s political elites. Operations included raids against former Decentralized Provías officials and a criminal organization allegedly linked to a former president in Lima and Moquegua. Elite police units also targeted Vladimir Cerron, a fugitive since October 2023. Additional raids at the legal firm Echecopar Study and Paradise discotheque extended anti-corruption measures to the legal profession and social venues. In March 2024, enforcement efforts intensified with raids on the residences of both the sitting president and a former president, highlighting the scope of governmental actions against corruption. Operations also targeted criminal organizations involved in distributing firearms, ammunition, and illegal mining, resulting in multiple arrests and seizures.
Non-lethal Violence in January: Illegal mining activities were marked by the destruction of a high-voltage tower at the Powerosa mining operations. Security concerns for public officials were highlighted by the physical assault on President Dina Buluarte. Public violence included the deployment of a grenade in San Juan de Lurigancho and altercations between football fans in Lima, pointing to issues of organized crime and sports-related violence. Additional incidents include clashes at Pescadores and Agua Dulce beaches, attacks on journalists, armed robberies targeting precious metals, and political violence, such as an explosive attack on a former mayor’s residence.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.