Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for Belarus, Nigeria, Ghana, Dominican Republic. We are forecasting major events for [].

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

::: {.callout-note appearance=“default” icon=false} ## Civic Space Early Warning System

Belarus

For Belarus, our data includes coverage through February 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of November 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on: ### Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Nigeria

For Nigeria, our data includes coverage through December 2023. Since the data was last updated through the end of December 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on: ### Forecasting

[‘In our last report, our models predicted an increase in reporting Corruption in Q1 2024. We have not yet seen a spike in reporting on Corruption in Q1 2024. Our models are still predicting an increase in reporting on Corruption in Q1 2024.’]

Ghana

For Ghana, our data includes coverage through March 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of December 2024, we have seen increases in reporting on: ### Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Dominican Republic

Dominican Republic is a new country. Our data includes coverage through the end of February 2024. Over the last three months, we saw increases in reporting on: ### Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.