AR6- Database
We have run the AR6 database with a battery of mortality impact
functions from FASST(R) (Rodes et al. 2024).
We then calculate CO2 FFI emissions and mortality changes wrt to
baselines and fit function models to the data per R10, regions. The
models can then be directly implemented into simple IAMs
(e.g. RICE+)
AFRICA
|
Region
|
Model
|
Eq
|
RMSE
|
MAE
|
R2
|
Time
|
|
AFRICA
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
4.725570e+03
|
3.548880e+03
|
4.700000e-01
|
2030
|
|
AFRICA
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
4.928300e+03
|
3.822480e+03
|
4.300000e-01
|
2030
|
|
AFRICA
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
5.483730e+03
|
4.515550e+03
|
2.500000e-01
|
2030
|
|
AFRICA
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
4.691610e+03
|
3.504410e+03
|
4.800000e-01
|
2030
|
|
AFRICA
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
4.683480e+03
|
3.470480e+03
|
4.800000e-01
|
2030
|
|
AFRICA
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
4.677580e+03
|
3.462070e+03
|
4.900000e-01
|
2030
|
|
AFRICA
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
4.704850e+03
|
3.491440e+03
|
4.800000e-01
|
2030
|
|
AFRICA
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
6.470600e+03
|
5.050020e+03
|
2.000000e-02
|
2030
|
|
AFRICA
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
1.640379e+04
|
1.187780e+04
|
2.400000e-01
|
2050
|
|
AFRICA
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
1.910974e+12
|
1.501610e+11
|
-1.026655e+16
|
2050
|
|
AFRICA
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
1.674603e+04
|
1.249400e+04
|
1.400000e-01
|
2050
|
|
AFRICA
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
1.629860e+04
|
1.182881e+04
|
2.500000e-01
|
2050
|
|
AFRICA
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
1.613439e+04
|
1.162974e+04
|
2.700000e-01
|
2050
|
|
AFRICA
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
1.607711e+04
|
1.146352e+04
|
2.700000e-01
|
2050
|
|
AFRICA
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
1.608229e+04
|
1.145233e+04
|
2.700000e-01
|
2050
|
|
AFRICA
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
1.879141e+04
|
1.318788e+04
|
1.000000e-02
|
2050
|
|
Model
|
a
|
b
|
c
|
d
|
|
Linear
|
1802.7258
|
7.895348
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Exponential
|
0.0000
|
0.010000
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Logaritmic
|
-44546.2422
|
8358.333217
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Poli Quadradic
|
1534.8740
|
9.829331
|
-0.000707
|
NA
|
|
Poli Cubic
|
-976.5344
|
10.741608
|
0.000318
|
0.000
|
|
Logistic
|
32158.1253
|
-2.876786
|
0.001747
|
-1894.558
|
|
Sigmoid
|
30018.1762
|
0.001984
|
1738.344093
|
NA
|
|
Sinusoidal
|
2320.7147
|
-0.008813
|
74.865420
|
15131.989
|
CHINA+
|
Region
|
Model
|
Eq
|
RMSE
|
MAE
|
R2
|
Time
|
|
CHINA+
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
4.625669e+04
|
3.041106e+04
|
7.100000e-01
|
2030
|
|
CHINA+
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
5.408832e+28
|
4.630869e+27
|
-3.955688e+47
|
2030
|
|
CHINA+
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
7.161129e+04
|
5.638403e+04
|
3.000000e-01
|
2030
|
|
CHINA+
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
4.333780e+04
|
2.958880e+04
|
7.500000e-01
|
2030
|
|
CHINA+
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
4.318050e+04
|
2.916213e+04
|
7.500000e-01
|
2030
|
|
CHINA+
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
4.326265e+04
|
2.964100e+04
|
7.500000e-01
|
2030
|
|
CHINA+
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
4.348671e+04
|
3.065678e+04
|
7.400000e-01
|
2030
|
|
CHINA+
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
8.577176e+04
|
6.612363e+04
|
1.000000e-02
|
2030
|
|
CHINA+
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
9.607689e+04
|
7.767406e+04
|
3.900000e-01
|
2050
|
|
CHINA+
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
3.354947e+55
|
1.359514e+54
|
-7.498583e+100
|
2050
|
|
CHINA+
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
9.883542e+04
|
8.265923e+04
|
2.300000e-01
|
2050
|
|
CHINA+
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
9.530279e+04
|
7.686564e+04
|
3.900000e-01
|
2050
|
|
CHINA+
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
9.278041e+04
|
7.465309e+04
|
4.300000e-01
|
2050
|
|
CHINA+
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
9.239537e+04
|
7.449736e+04
|
4.300000e-01
|
2050
|
|
CHINA+
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
9.292612e+04
|
7.305006e+04
|
4.200000e-01
|
2050
|
|
CHINA+
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
1.221484e+05
|
9.630055e+04
|
1.000000e-02
|
2050
|
|
Model
|
a
|
b
|
c
|
d
|
|
Linear
|
24290.676
|
18.685989
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Exponential
|
0.000
|
0.010000
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Logaritmic
|
-399578.102
|
64428.741597
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Poli Quadradic
|
22309.604
|
23.821281
|
-0.000543
|
NA
|
|
Poli Cubic
|
-4131.816
|
26.039668
|
0.000987
|
0.00
|
|
Logistic
|
268682.422
|
-1.658225
|
0.000544
|
-57927.18
|
|
Sigmoid
|
203492.839
|
0.000916
|
4044.733443
|
NA
|
|
Sinusoidal
|
13220.620
|
-0.093302
|
-328.021422
|
140280.80
|
EUROPE
|
Region
|
Model
|
Eq
|
RMSE
|
MAE
|
R2
|
Time
|
|
EUROPE
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
1.133110e+04
|
7.630240e+03
|
6.30000e-01
|
2030
|
|
EUROPE
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
5.451686e+05
|
6.005679e+04
|
-8.48190e+02
|
2030
|
|
EUROPE
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
1.664999e+04
|
9.425670e+03
|
2.40000e-01
|
2030
|
|
EUROPE
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
7.844600e+03
|
5.487140e+03
|
8.20000e-01
|
2030
|
|
EUROPE
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
7.347220e+03
|
5.091730e+03
|
8.50000e-01
|
2030
|
|
EUROPE
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
7.309560e+03
|
5.132590e+03
|
8.50000e-01
|
2030
|
|
EUROPE
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
7.695300e+03
|
5.270180e+03
|
8.30000e-01
|
2030
|
|
EUROPE
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
1.856839e+04
|
9.709040e+03
|
1.00000e-02
|
2030
|
|
EUROPE
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
1.682397e+04
|
1.081688e+04
|
4.60000e-01
|
2050
|
|
EUROPE
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
2.104723e+13
|
9.562552e+11
|
-8.40371e+17
|
2050
|
|
EUROPE
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
1.992860e+04
|
1.366069e+04
|
2.30000e-01
|
2050
|
|
EUROPE
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
1.625653e+04
|
9.882930e+03
|
5.00000e-01
|
2050
|
|
EUROPE
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
1.621285e+04
|
9.541960e+03
|
5.00000e-01
|
2050
|
|
EUROPE
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
1.585711e+04
|
9.092670e+03
|
5.20000e-01
|
2050
|
|
EUROPE
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
1.586898e+04
|
9.138670e+03
|
5.20000e-01
|
2050
|
|
EUROPE
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
2.290505e+04
|
1.582255e+04
|
0.00000e+00
|
2050
|
|
Model
|
a
|
b
|
c
|
d
|
|
Linear
|
-3854.067
|
11.489278
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Exponential
|
0.000
|
0.010000
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Logaritmic
|
-62353.234
|
10989.535220
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Poli Quadradic
|
-2935.176
|
6.852264
|
0.001470
|
NA
|
|
Poli Cubic
|
-1618.884
|
6.314437
|
0.000887
|
0.000
|
|
Logistic
|
61979.315
|
-4.898986
|
0.001628
|
1900.205
|
|
Sigmoid
|
66640.648
|
0.001400
|
3030.362451
|
NA
|
|
Sinusoidal
|
-2260.697
|
-0.158970
|
-179.923876
|
15641.885
|
INDIA+
|
Region
|
Model
|
Eq
|
RMSE
|
MAE
|
R2
|
Time
|
|
INDIA+
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
1.912865e+04
|
1.163796e+04
|
8.900000e-01
|
2030
|
|
INDIA+
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
2.931129e+04
|
2.199395e+04
|
7.400000e-01
|
2030
|
|
INDIA+
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
3.488015e+04
|
2.711823e+04
|
6.000000e-01
|
2030
|
|
INDIA+
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
1.907563e+04
|
1.146470e+04
|
8.900000e-01
|
2030
|
|
INDIA+
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
1.893401e+04
|
1.140996e+04
|
8.900000e-01
|
2030
|
|
INDIA+
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
1.890964e+04
|
1.136191e+04
|
8.900000e-01
|
2030
|
|
INDIA+
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
2.153616e+04
|
1.376278e+04
|
8.600000e-01
|
2030
|
|
INDIA+
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
5.732138e+04
|
4.740982e+04
|
2.000000e-02
|
2030
|
|
INDIA+
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
7.144061e+04
|
4.378746e+04
|
6.000000e-01
|
2050
|
|
INDIA+
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
1.199883e+24
|
7.920532e+22
|
-1.117419e+38
|
2050
|
|
INDIA+
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
8.209159e+04
|
6.069260e+04
|
3.300000e-01
|
2050
|
|
INDIA+
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
6.760456e+04
|
4.440975e+04
|
6.500000e-01
|
2050
|
|
INDIA+
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
6.238974e+04
|
3.723533e+04
|
7.000000e-01
|
2050
|
|
INDIA+
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
6.481591e+04
|
3.989471e+04
|
6.700000e-01
|
2050
|
|
INDIA+
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
6.488516e+04
|
4.051081e+04
|
6.700000e-01
|
2050
|
|
INDIA+
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
1.130593e+05
|
9.078888e+04
|
1.000000e-02
|
2050
|
|
Model
|
a
|
b
|
c
|
d
|
|
Linear
|
44050.10
|
36.095147
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Exponential
|
0.00
|
0.010000
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Logaritmic
|
-190072.15
|
46707.316080
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Poli Quadradic
|
41800.29
|
22.728926
|
0.002752
|
NA
|
|
Poli Cubic
|
12042.79
|
37.552416
|
0.005570
|
-0.000001
|
|
Logistic
|
305769.24
|
-1.990301
|
0.000718
|
-12987.458259
|
|
Sigmoid
|
289261.84
|
0.000772
|
2882.929875
|
NA
|
|
Sinusoidal
|
-14413.03
|
-0.023822
|
-23.567115
|
163108.414452
|
LATIN AM
|
Region
|
Model
|
Eq
|
RMSE
|
MAE
|
R2
|
Time
|
|
LATIN AM
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
5.011200e+03
|
3.636950e+03
|
4.000000e-01
|
2030
|
|
LATIN AM
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
4.991870e+03
|
3.406230e+03
|
4.100000e-01
|
2030
|
|
LATIN AM
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
5.289270e+03
|
3.988580e+03
|
2.600000e-01
|
2030
|
|
LATIN AM
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
4.870850e+03
|
3.310220e+03
|
4.400000e-01
|
2030
|
|
LATIN AM
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
4.858710e+03
|
3.274800e+03
|
4.400000e-01
|
2030
|
|
LATIN AM
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
4.859870e+03
|
3.257010e+03
|
4.400000e-01
|
2030
|
|
LATIN AM
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
4.884060e+03
|
3.196060e+03
|
4.300000e-01
|
2030
|
|
LATIN AM
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
6.438810e+03
|
4.162710e+03
|
2.000000e-02
|
2030
|
|
LATIN AM
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
1.123907e+04
|
8.553740e+03
|
1.500000e-01
|
2050
|
|
LATIN AM
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
2.479010e+10
|
1.998558e+09
|
-4.124177e+12
|
2050
|
|
LATIN AM
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
1.113209e+04
|
9.181290e+03
|
8.000000e-02
|
2050
|
|
LATIN AM
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
1.113143e+04
|
8.720240e+03
|
1.700000e-01
|
2050
|
|
LATIN AM
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
1.109950e+04
|
8.657650e+03
|
1.700000e-01
|
2050
|
|
LATIN AM
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
1.115190e+04
|
8.699150e+03
|
1.700000e-01
|
2050
|
|
LATIN AM
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
1.127514e+04
|
8.544960e+03
|
1.500000e-01
|
2050
|
|
LATIN AM
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
1.219199e+04
|
9.497660e+03
|
0.000000e+00
|
2050
|
|
Model
|
a
|
b
|
c
|
d
|
|
Linear
|
49.26296
|
4.038523
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Exponential
|
0.00000
|
0.010000
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Logaritmic
|
-19459.21004
|
3741.591160
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Poli Quadradic
|
-684.89766
|
6.390511
|
-0.000760
|
NA
|
|
Poli Cubic
|
-1476.13665
|
6.070432
|
0.000073
|
0.000
|
|
Logistic
|
-111615.62573
|
-1.591223
|
-0.000385
|
18422.934
|
|
Sigmoid
|
14163.14769
|
0.001508
|
1699.109592
|
NA
|
|
Sinusoidal
|
-877.78853
|
-0.172807
|
-187.056998
|
7136.872
|
MIDDLE EAST
|
Region
|
Model
|
Eq
|
RMSE
|
MAE
|
R2
|
Time
|
|
MIDDLE EAST
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
1.727050e+03
|
1.093390e+03
|
4.400000e-01
|
2030
|
|
MIDDLE EAST
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
1.861510e+03
|
1.275680e+03
|
3.500000e-01
|
2030
|
|
MIDDLE EAST
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
1.996710e+03
|
1.413620e+03
|
2.600000e-01
|
2030
|
|
MIDDLE EAST
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
1.718080e+03
|
1.093510e+03
|
4.400000e-01
|
2030
|
|
MIDDLE EAST
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
1.710570e+03
|
1.087800e+03
|
4.500000e-01
|
2030
|
|
MIDDLE EAST
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
1.725590e+03
|
1.087380e+03
|
4.400000e-01
|
2030
|
|
MIDDLE EAST
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
1.679580e+03
|
1.065690e+03
|
4.700000e-01
|
2030
|
|
MIDDLE EAST
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
2.290800e+03
|
1.726250e+03
|
1.000000e-02
|
2030
|
|
MIDDLE EAST
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
3.450900e+03
|
2.144480e+03
|
2.900000e-01
|
2050
|
|
MIDDLE EAST
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
2.398032e+14
|
1.037548e+13
|
-3.423862e+21
|
2050
|
|
MIDDLE EAST
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
3.621960e+03
|
2.500890e+03
|
1.500000e-01
|
2050
|
|
MIDDLE EAST
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
3.447350e+03
|
2.159420e+03
|
2.900000e-01
|
2050
|
|
MIDDLE EAST
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
3.391090e+03
|
2.192970e+03
|
3.200000e-01
|
2050
|
|
MIDDLE EAST
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
3.444990e+03
|
2.176600e+03
|
2.900000e-01
|
2050
|
|
MIDDLE EAST
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
3.504940e+03
|
2.215840e+03
|
2.700000e-01
|
2050
|
|
MIDDLE EAST
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
4.079000e+03
|
2.901390e+03
|
1.000000e-02
|
2050
|
|
Model
|
a
|
b
|
c
|
d
|
|
Linear
|
1010.5133
|
1.557196
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Exponential
|
0.0000
|
0.010000
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Logaritmic
|
-7475.9393
|
1623.046002
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Poli Quadradic
|
891.7179
|
1.808751
|
-0.000064
|
NA
|
|
Poli Cubic
|
1229.6299
|
2.526799
|
-0.000772
|
0.000
|
|
Logistic
|
-905828.3922
|
-4.097505
|
-0.000136
|
15644.917
|
|
Sigmoid
|
23301.0887
|
0.000427
|
5819.196827
|
NA
|
|
Sinusoidal
|
-555.6003
|
-0.009354
|
-81.169791
|
4125.954
|
NORTH AM
|
Region
|
Model
|
Eq
|
RMSE
|
MAE
|
R2
|
Time
|
|
NORTH AM
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
1.036107e+04
|
8.713120e+03
|
2.300000e-01
|
2030
|
|
NORTH AM
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
4.336109e+06
|
1.935098e+05
|
-1.350126e+05
|
2030
|
|
NORTH AM
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
1.115859e+04
|
9.605940e+03
|
1.100000e-01
|
2030
|
|
NORTH AM
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
1.035437e+04
|
8.745630e+03
|
2.300000e-01
|
2030
|
|
NORTH AM
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
1.015053e+04
|
8.457630e+03
|
2.600000e-01
|
2030
|
|
NORTH AM
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
9.334750e+03
|
6.895000e+03
|
3.700000e-01
|
2030
|
|
NORTH AM
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
9.546820e+03
|
7.124180e+03
|
3.500000e-01
|
2030
|
|
NORTH AM
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
1.086939e+04
|
8.462500e+03
|
1.500000e-01
|
2030
|
|
NORTH AM
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
1.010372e+04
|
8.384060e+03
|
1.100000e-01
|
2050
|
|
NORTH AM
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
1.079916e+23
|
4.363006e+21
|
-1.019814e+38
|
2050
|
|
NORTH AM
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
1.018979e+04
|
8.852110e+03
|
2.000000e-02
|
2050
|
|
NORTH AM
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
9.994620e+03
|
8.440790e+03
|
1.300000e-01
|
2050
|
|
NORTH AM
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
9.970230e+03
|
8.365970e+03
|
1.300000e-01
|
2050
|
|
NORTH AM
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
9.986440e+03
|
8.395290e+03
|
1.300000e-01
|
2050
|
|
NORTH AM
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
1.010324e+04
|
8.431880e+03
|
1.100000e-01
|
2050
|
|
NORTH AM
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
1.063693e+04
|
8.833740e+03
|
1.000000e-02
|
2050
|
|
Model
|
a
|
b
|
c
|
d
|
|
Linear
|
3732.790
|
1.856968
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Exponential
|
0.000
|
0.010000
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Logaritmic
|
-1545.622
|
1364.901815
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Poli Quadradic
|
4237.407
|
2.538829
|
-0.000246
|
NA
|
|
Poli Cubic
|
3503.374
|
2.924777
|
-0.000138
|
0.000
|
|
Logistic
|
20165.063
|
0.630804
|
0.000812
|
-9528.219
|
|
Sigmoid
|
10760.653
|
0.000977
|
621.027209
|
NA
|
|
Sinusoidal
|
1537.150
|
0.085141
|
79.708444
|
7437.521
|
PAC OECD
|
Region
|
Model
|
Eq
|
RMSE
|
MAE
|
R2
|
Time
|
|
PAC OECD
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
3351.52
|
2478.27
|
0.39
|
2030
|
|
PAC OECD
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
3664.16
|
2762.97
|
0.27
|
2030
|
|
PAC OECD
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
3683.26
|
2746.68
|
0.25
|
2030
|
|
PAC OECD
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
3299.72
|
2414.22
|
0.41
|
2030
|
|
PAC OECD
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
3261.41
|
2419.24
|
0.42
|
2030
|
|
PAC OECD
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
3309.83
|
2427.01
|
0.40
|
2030
|
|
PAC OECD
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
3264.95
|
2435.89
|
0.42
|
2030
|
|
PAC OECD
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
4149.24
|
3006.87
|
0.06
|
2030
|
|
PAC OECD
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
5106.15
|
4083.20
|
0.19
|
2050
|
|
PAC OECD
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
5298.65
|
4307.35
|
0.13
|
2050
|
|
PAC OECD
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
5174.38
|
4325.18
|
0.12
|
2050
|
|
PAC OECD
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
4947.68
|
4056.50
|
0.24
|
2050
|
|
PAC OECD
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
4911.43
|
3985.27
|
0.25
|
2050
|
|
PAC OECD
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
4969.85
|
4020.52
|
0.24
|
2050
|
|
PAC OECD
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
5005.33
|
4032.41
|
0.23
|
2050
|
|
PAC OECD
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
5671.21
|
4469.73
|
0.01
|
2050
|
|
Model
|
a
|
b
|
c
|
d
|
|
Linear
|
1516.4302
|
4.856754
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Exponential
|
3062.1994
|
0.000626
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Logaritmic
|
-6724.5766
|
1907.148852
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Poli Quadradic
|
698.6262
|
9.495014
|
-0.003199
|
NA
|
|
Poli Cubic
|
362.9588
|
8.443650
|
0.000157
|
-0.000002
|
|
Logistic
|
15675.2832
|
-0.092405
|
0.002268
|
-7084.599849
|
|
Sigmoid
|
8452.8808
|
0.003813
|
529.048078
|
NA
|
|
Sinusoidal
|
-628.4997
|
0.222444
|
82.930376
|
4801.342603
|
REF ECON
|
Region
|
Model
|
Eq
|
RMSE
|
MAE
|
R2
|
Time
|
|
REF ECON
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
9445.79
|
6774.89
|
0.72
|
2030
|
|
REF ECON
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
11131.56
|
8200.62
|
0.61
|
2030
|
|
REF ECON
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
15740.59
|
12845.00
|
0.25
|
2030
|
|
REF ECON
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
9419.82
|
6633.76
|
0.72
|
2030
|
|
REF ECON
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
8828.27
|
5887.90
|
0.75
|
2030
|
|
REF ECON
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
8845.81
|
5817.34
|
0.75
|
2030
|
|
REF ECON
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
8849.60
|
5787.15
|
0.75
|
2030
|
|
REF ECON
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
17110.39
|
12937.06
|
0.07
|
2030
|
|
REF ECON
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
18133.20
|
15067.89
|
0.13
|
2050
|
|
REF ECON
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
28367481.31
|
1651221.27
|
-2139368.40
|
2050
|
|
REF ECON
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
18336.20
|
15641.66
|
0.05
|
2050
|
|
REF ECON
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
17334.93
|
14575.77
|
0.20
|
2050
|
|
REF ECON
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
17167.42
|
14367.80
|
0.22
|
2050
|
|
REF ECON
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
17343.88
|
14232.87
|
0.20
|
2050
|
|
REF ECON
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
17448.83
|
14292.21
|
0.19
|
2050
|
|
REF ECON
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
19337.40
|
16177.03
|
0.01
|
2050
|
|
Model
|
a
|
b
|
c
|
d
|
|
Linear
|
7424.567
|
6.149844
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Exponential
|
0.000
|
0.010000
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Logaritmic
|
-8802.217
|
3975.511340
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Poli Quadradic
|
4899.101
|
17.043288
|
-0.003844
|
NA
|
|
Poli Cubic
|
2497.484
|
15.480451
|
0.000252
|
-0.000001
|
|
Logistic
|
35014.627
|
-0.596941
|
0.002734
|
-12066.497073
|
|
Sigmoid
|
22666.883
|
0.004664
|
536.440900
|
NA
|
|
Sinusoidal
|
2133.041
|
0.060433
|
87.241236
|
18104.346180
|
REST ASIA
|
Region
|
Model
|
Eq
|
RMSE
|
MAE
|
R2
|
Time
|
|
REST ASIA
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
1.739845e+04
|
1.328592e+04
|
6.600000e-01
|
2030
|
|
REST ASIA
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
1.982317e+04
|
1.555913e+04
|
5.600000e-01
|
2030
|
|
REST ASIA
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
2.156816e+04
|
1.711853e+04
|
4.300000e-01
|
2030
|
|
REST ASIA
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
1.709366e+04
|
1.269043e+04
|
6.700000e-01
|
2030
|
|
REST ASIA
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
1.695522e+04
|
1.261580e+04
|
6.800000e-01
|
2030
|
|
REST ASIA
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
1.678423e+04
|
1.214586e+04
|
6.800000e-01
|
2030
|
|
REST ASIA
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
1.688910e+04
|
1.217400e+04
|
6.800000e-01
|
2030
|
|
REST ASIA
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
2.973495e+04
|
2.361709e+04
|
1.000000e-02
|
2030
|
|
REST ASIA
|
Linear
|
diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit
|
4.243853e+04
|
3.191044e+04
|
4.500000e-01
|
2050
|
|
REST ASIA
|
Exponential
|
a * exp(b * diff_emit)
|
2.733928e+21
|
1.335687e+20
|
-2.295179e+33
|
2050
|
|
REST ASIA
|
Logaritmic
|
a + b * log(diff_emit)
|
4.104973e+04
|
3.029391e+04
|
3.500000e-01
|
2050
|
|
REST ASIA
|
Poli Quadradic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2
|
4.226980e+04
|
3.148097e+04
|
4.500000e-01
|
2050
|
|
REST ASIA
|
Poli Cubic
|
a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3
|
3.952184e+04
|
2.916975e+04
|
5.200000e-01
|
2050
|
|
REST ASIA
|
Logistic
|
(a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d
|
3.907585e+04
|
2.777143e+04
|
5.300000e-01
|
2050
|
|
REST ASIA
|
Sigmoid
|
diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c)))))
|
3.917518e+04
|
2.805979e+04
|
5.300000e-01
|
2050
|
|
REST ASIA
|
Sinusoidal
|
diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d
|
5.661733e+04
|
4.407214e+04
|
2.000000e-02
|
2050
|
|
Model
|
a
|
b
|
c
|
d
|
|
Linear
|
21167.226
|
21.579645
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Exponential
|
0.000
|
0.010000
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Logaritmic
|
-223264.947
|
39633.289606
|
NA
|
NA
|
|
Poli Quadradic
|
19920.766
|
24.959467
|
-0.000764
|
NA
|
|
Poli Cubic
|
2728.331
|
27.370262
|
0.003995
|
-0.000001
|
|
Logistic
|
131914.404
|
-2.211932
|
0.001347
|
-12373.921576
|
|
Sigmoid
|
118173.531
|
0.001565
|
1809.662569
|
NA
|
|
Sinusoidal
|
-10184.220
|
0.044389
|
165.438211
|
77425.521572
|
