EE has discovered the Gas GHG Adder, a very significant FS benefit, was omitted from EE’s 2024 Electric and Gas Avoided Cost Data:https://file.ac/l1-GqhWF8OU/.
Energy Efficiency (EE) uses the Total Resource Cost (TRC) test to determine what EE resources to procure. TRC represents costs and benefits of EE projects to the Utility and Participant. Unfortunately, most Fuel-Substitution measures have very low TRC values under EE’s current Cost-Effectiveness framework which means Program Administrators struggle to implement them. Neglecting to count Gas GHG Adder benefits is worsening this issue.
If EE considered Gas GHG Adder Benefits, how would this impact the TRC of Fuel-Sub projects?
To explore this question, Calculate existing Gas Benefits vs. Gas GHG Adder benefits from 2023 Fuel-Sub Measures claims.
#Selections
HeatPumpHVAC_res <- 'SWHC045'
HPWH_res <- 'SWWH025'
cooking <- 'SWAP013'
PGS_Sector <- 'Res'
EUL_HPHVAC <- 15
EUL_HPWH <-10
EUL_Cooking <- 16
TRC <- 1The data inputs are shown below:
• Claims data was pulled from CEDARS in April 2024: https://cedars.sound-data.com/reports/download-record-level-report/claims/2023/
The data from the online sources were truncated and renamed to simplify this analysis; the names of these files are listed below.
#Read in Fuel Sub Claims 2023 Q1-Q4
FS23 <- read_excel("C:\\Users\\mmh\\R Programming\\subtests\\FS_NewBens\\23_FS_Claims_full.xlsx")## Warning: Expecting numeric in BN17898 / R17898C66: got 'None'FS23_cooking <- read_excel("C:\\Users\\mmh\\R Programming\\subtests\\FS_NewBens\\23_FS_Claims_full.xlsx") ## Warning: Expecting numeric in BN17898 / R17898C66: got 'None'PGS_TechPotential <- read_excel("C:\\Users\\mmh\\R Programming\\subtests\\FS_NewBens\\PGS_FS_TechPotential.xlsx") Filter the data based on the conditions stated above and calculate total Gas Benefits from the Claims Data and the total Gas CO2 abatement.
#Total Energy: by Measure & CZ
df_HPHVAC<- filter(FS23, MeasureID == HeatPumpHVAC_res) #`Measure Application Type` == MeasAppType, `Building Type` == BldgType, CZ == ClimateZone,)
HPHVAC_GasBensClaimed <- c(sum(df_HPHVAC$`Gas Benefits`, df_HPHVAC$`Electric Benefits`,df_HPHVAC$`Other Benefits`))
HPHVAC_GasCO2Claimed <- c(sum(df_HPHVAC$`Lifecycle Net Gas CO2`))
df_HPWH<- filter(FS23,MeasureID == HPWH_res) #`Measure Application Type` == MeasAppType, `Building Type` == BldgType, CZ == ClimateZone,)
HPWH_GasBensClaimed <- c(sum(df_HPWH$`Gas Benefits`, df_HPWH$`Electric Benefits`,df_HPWH$`Other Benefits`))
HPWH_GasCO2Claimed <- c(sum(df_HPWH$`Lifecycle Net Gas CO2`))
df_cooking<- filter(FS23_cooking, MeasureID == cooking) # CZ == ClimateZone,)
cooking_GasBensClaimed <- c(sum(df_cooking$`Gas Benefits`, df_cooking$`Electric Benefits`,df_cooking$`Other Benefits`))
cooking_GasCO2Claimed <- c(sum(df_cooking$`Lifecycle Net Gas CO2`))Calculate the Avoided Costs from the Gas GHG Adder, ($) using:
• the 2022 Avoided Cost Calculator Gas GHG Adder and,
• the total Gas CO2 abatement calculated above.
The Gas GHG Adder is documented in the 2022 ACC Documentation: https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/-/media/cpuc-website/divisions/energy-division/documents/demand-side-management/acc-models-latest-version/2022-acc-documentation-v1a.pdf
#Gas GHG Adder
Gas_GHG_Adder <- 141.71 #$/tonne CO2 in 2023 Dollars. The ACC inflates the Adder each year in the equivalent amount of the discount. So, when you discount the costs each yr, the values end up being constant.
#Calculate total Gas Benefits from CO2 in $
GasBens_GHG_HPHVAC <-(HPHVAC_GasCO2Claimed * Gas_GHG_Adder)
GasBens_GHG_HPWH <- (HPWH_GasCO2Claimed * Gas_GHG_Adder)
GasBens_GHG_cooking <- (cooking_GasCO2Claimed * Gas_GHG_Adder) | Measure | Gas Benefits, 2023 Claims | Estimated Gas GHG Adder Benefits for 2023 Claims |
|---|---|---|
| HVAC Heat Pump | $14,494,207 | $12,912,104 |
| Heat Pump Water Heater | $4,268,398 | $3,480,518 |
| Cooking | $174,341 | $150,366 |
Estimate the extent to which the Gas GHG Adder impacts TRC, in %.
#Calculate the total % increase to Gas Benefits, incurred from the Gas GHG Adder
percent_inc_GasGHG_HPHVAC <- (GasBens_GHG_HPHVAC+HPHVAC_GasBensClaimed - HPHVAC_GasBensClaimed )/HPHVAC_GasBensClaimed
percent_inc_GasGHG_HPWH <- (GasBens_GHG_HPWH+HPWH_GasBensClaimed - HPWH_GasBensClaimed )/HPWH_GasBensClaimed
percent_inc_GasGHG_cooking <- (GasBens_GHG_cooking + cooking_GasBensClaimed - cooking_GasBensClaimed )/cooking_GasBensClaimed## [1] "HVAC HP"## [1] "89%"## [1] "HPWH"## [1] "82%"## [1] "cooking"## [1] "86%"Estimate the impact on TRC from including the Gas GHG Adder in the total Gas Benefits.
#Calculate Average TRC in the existing claims, by measure
TRC_ave_claimed_HPHVAC <- c(mean(df_HPHVAC$`TRC`))
TRC_ave_claimed_HPWH <- c(mean(df_HPWH$`TRC`))
TRC_ave_claimed_cooking <- c(mean(df_cooking$`TRC`))
#Increase the Average TRC in the existing claims by the % increase values from the Gas GHGH Adder, calculated in the previous code chunk
TRC_wGasGHG_HPHVAC <- TRC_ave_claimed_HPHVAC + (percent_inc_GasGHG_HPHVAC*TRC_ave_claimed_HPHVAC)
TRC_wGasGHG_HPWH <- TRC_ave_claimed_HPWH + (percent_inc_GasGHG_HPWH*TRC_ave_claimed_HPWH )
TRC_wGasGHG_cooking <- TRC_ave_claimed_cooking + (percent_inc_GasGHG_cooking *TRC_ave_claimed_cooking )| Measure | TRC, 2023 Claims | TRC increase with Gas GHG Adder |
|---|---|---|
| HVAC Heat Pump | 0.68 | 1.28 |
| Heat Pump Water Heater | 0.37 | 0.68 |
| Cooking | 0.11 | 0.21 |
Estimate the share of 2023 FS Claims that would have passed the Cost-Effectiveness test if the GHG Adder was considered vs. how many actually did.
| Measure | Without Gas GHG Adder | With Gas GHG Adder |
|---|---|---|
| HVAC Heat Pump | 0.17% | 87% |
Note that the 2024 EUL study will further increase cost-effectiveness. The study will increase the Heat Pump HVAC EUL to 23 years and the Heat Pump Water Heater EUL to 20 years. In a separate analysis on PG&E Res, Statewide Fuel-Sub program claims in Climate Zone 12, the impact of these studies was a ~20% increase in Heat Pump HVAC TRC and a ~55% increase in Heat Pump Water Heater TRC.
It is hard to understand the precise relationship between TRC increase for Fuel-Sub measures and increased uptake of these measures in the EE portfolio. To explore the potential, the Technical Potential for Fuel-Sub Lifecycle Therm savings for year 2024 from the 2023 Potential and Goals Study is compared to the Lifecycle Therm savings from the 2023 Claims for Fuel-Sub measures.
| Measure | PGS Technical Potential, 2024 | Claims,2023 |
|---|---|---|
| HVAC Heat Pump | 3.366055e+08 | 1.483376e+07 |
| Heat Pump Water Heater | 3.367605e+09 | 3.998510e+06 |
| Cooking | 2.325267e+07 | 1.727440e+05 |