NFL Receiver Data Analysis

Author

Connor O’Grady

Intro

Hi all, My name is Connor and I am a BAIS/DS major at Xavier University. I enjoy watching the NFL and take a particular interest in that statistical side of it. As an avid New York Jets fan, I am hopeful for our future with Rodgers. But today I will be analyzing receiver data from the 2018-2023 NFL seasons.

This Data was collected from the NFL Next Gen Statistics Website.

Has the NFL become more pass oriented?

With NFL contracts getting larger and larger by year. Especially for those at the quarterback and wide receiver position. Does this mean the league is more pass play oriented than it has been in previous years?

It seems that in the 2019 and 2020 seasons there was a dip in receiving yards. Does this mean that the top receivers were not as good as in other years? Does this mean there were less pass plays called resulting in less receiving yards? In general I would say the NFL has become more pass oriented.


Attaching package: 'dplyr'
The following objects are masked from 'package:stats':

    filter, lag
The following objects are masked from 'package:base':

    intersect, setdiff, setequal, union

Who have been the best Receivers from 2018-2023?

Based on their average yards per season these are the five best receivers:

  1. Puka Nacua

  2. Justin Jefferson

  3. Tyreek Hill

  4. Davante Adams

  5. CeeDee Lamb

Theoretically going forwards from the 2023 season, these players should be considered target players. They result in the most yards, and have the ability to alter the outcome of games when the ball is in their hand. Puka Nacua although he was a rookie last season, has the highest average per year. Although the sample size is small for him, this is a sign that he will be a high production receiver in coming years.

Selecting by Avg_Yards_Per_Year

Are the Best receivers the ones with the most targets?

Does more targets make you a better receiver statistically? From the graph below we can see that players who are near the top in average yards are also near the top in average targets. With overlapping names such as Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, and Puka Nacua. We can see that high volume correlates with higher production. The outliers here are Tyreek Hill and Ceedee Lamb, although they are in the top 5 for production they are not in the top five for targets. Could that mean they are more effective on the field, because they can gain more yards with less need for the ball? I believe this data may be skewed by “hail mary” plays. Ceedee Lamb and Tyreek Hill happen to be some of the best deep route runners in the NFL. I believe this is why they are more effective with less possession.

Selecting by Avg_Targets_Per_Year

Who are the most Touchdown effective players?

Here I will be looking at what players have the most receiving touchdowns with the least receptions. These are going to be considered your red zone targets. Guys with great catching ability but possibly not the most mobile receivers. I will only be using players with ten or more touchdowns, as to not be skewed by players who get minimal targets and “lucky touchdowns”.

As seen below in the result the players who are the most effective in the redzone are:

  • John Ross

  • David Moore

  • Christian Watson

  • Gabriel Davis

  • Cameron Brate

Although most of these players are not considered top tier or #1 wide receivers, when targeted they tend to lead to more touchdowns than other players. This could be a result of plays drawn up for them, or attributes that give them favorable match ups in the opponents territory.

# A tibble: 5 × 4
  PLAYER.NAME      Total_Touchdowns Total_Receptions TD_Per_Reception
  <chr>                       <int>            <int>            <dbl>
1 John Ross                      10               49            0.204
2 David Moore                    11               61            0.180
3 Christian Watson               12               69            0.174
4 Gabriel Davis                  27              163            0.166
5 Cameron Brate                  14               96            0.146

What team has the most effective passing scheme?

Often times a play call can make the difference between something being good and great, the match ups you can create and one on one opportunities. In theory this would provide the teams with the best plays to get receivers the ball in a scoring position. Based on this result Seattle & Green Bay seem to have the best plays drawn up to get their scorers the ball. Based on this chart, when a receiver catches a ball on for the Seahawks or Packers, there is an 11% chance that it will result in a touchdown, this is greater than any other teams in the league and they are the only teams above 10%.