Economic Outlook Assessment of the United States

Economic Outlook Assessment: Methods, Tools and Debates for Economists and Policy Makers

Author

Affiliation

Gianmarco Zuccaroli

Sciences Po

Presentation

Symbol of Capitalism, major financial centre, leader in tech innovation, the United States, a federation of fifty constituent entities inhabited by several peoples with diverse origins, are currently the largest advanced market economy.

Diverse and rich in contradictions, they are both the country of the Trillion Club enterprises and that of the records in homelessness, the nation of the highly developed and committed to innovation coasts and that of the conservative deindustrialized Midwest. A land ruled by the Dollar’s influence, in which the impact of politics and private lobbying on the economy could be described as fluctuating, but for sure non-negligible.

Following the terrific economic crisis due to the 2020 COVID pandemic, the Biden administration signed in 2022 a massive stimulus package, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which served as a recovery plan for the American economy. As prices went up and tensions on the world stage have materialized in the 2022 Ukrainian conflict, how did the country react to the impressive measures that it contains?

Acting as the most prominent economic power in the world since the end of WWII, are the United States still in the lead today, or are they suffering from the competition of other advanced economies and from the rising of emerging ones?

Economic Outlook Assessment

In order to assess the current state of health, this economic outlook assessment will be focused on the period that followed the Great Financial Crisis, with a stress on the post-COVID period.

Structural Features

The main structural features of the US economy include:

a dynamic labor market;
a high productivity level, which translates into a high GDP per person employed;
a terrific trade deficit, due to a negative balance in goods trading, with both advanced economies such as Italy and Germany, and emerging countries like China;
being one of the leaders in innovation
- being the leading startup economies, as it has the highest number of the so-called “unicorns” (startups whose value exceeds 1 billion USD)¹ and is the first country by total startup output²;
- being, as of 2022, the second country with the most patent applications after China, the third country with the most trademarks applications after Germany, and the fourth country with the most industrial design applications after Italy³;
- being the home to the major Big Tech companies (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, NVidia, Tesla);
being the leader in venture capital (VC) investments⁴, and one of the countries with the easiest access to capital in general⁵;
being the home to both the first and the second largest stock exchange in the world, the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ respectively;
being the leader in economic complexity of research⁶;
having experienced the so-called “Twin Deficits” (both fiscal and commercial deficits) since 1976, except for a brief parenthesis of fiscal surplus between 1998 and 2001.

GDP: Components and Sectors

Looking at the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data for the US GDP in chained USD - a way, other than constant USD of measuring GDP trying to account for inflation⁷ - we see that the country took just one year to recover from the Great Financial Crisis, as in 2010 it had reached again the pre-crisis peak. In the following years, the growth was pretty constant until 2020, when the world was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Note that the 2021 rebound was much stronger than the 2020 fall. 2022 was the year of the start of the Ukrainian War - which impacted the US less than Europe - but also of the IRA, which significantly boosted the US economy, that accelerated in 2023.

In Figure 1 - with y-axis in \(log\)-scale to represent data in a less distortive way - we can look at US GDP in Chained USD between 2007 and 2023. As shown in Figure 2, since 2010 (excluding 2020 and 2021) the US have been growing at an average rate of 2,36% a year, which is high for a large advanced economy. To contextualize, let us compare this with the Eurozone⁸ through an indexed chart in Figure 3 with data at constant 2015 USD from the World Bank, where 2022 is the last available year. Taking 2010 as the base year for both, the pattern is similar until 2012 - when the Eurozone slowed down due to the austerity measures imposed on its member States - but then the US grew at a faster pace, so that in 2022 its GDP reached almost 128% of the 2010 one, whilst the Eurozone was stuck at 116%.

To go more in-depth, we may be interested in understanding which GDP components have been driving the US economy according to BEA data, as presented in Table 1 which gives us an idea of their evolution in determining GDP between 2009 and 2023. It looks like the economy was boosted by private investment until 2019, and then by consumption of both durable and non-durable goods, whilst government spending was on a decreasing trend and the trade balance continued deteriorating as imports increased and exports stagnated at around 11% of the GDP over the period. This is confirmed by Table 2, where we can look at the annual growth rate of GDP components. It is interesting to note the impact that the rate hike had on residential investment, which went down by 9% in 2022 and 10,6% in 2023.

The BEA also has also provided detailed industry-level data for GDP since 2017, which are presented in Table 3. There are some sectors that have experienced a real boom over the last seven years, such as the “Information” one, as well as “Health Care and Social Assistance”, “Professional and Business Services” - pulled by “Computer Systems Design and Related Services” and “Miscellaneous Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services” - and “Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental, and Leasing” led by “Real Estate and Rental and Leasing”. There was a great expansion of “Durable Goods”, as well as of Air Transportation”, to the detriment of the rail one. On the other hand, petroleum, coal and plastics have recorded an important decrease.

On April 25th, the BEA released its advanced estimates for GDP in Q1 2024, according to which the economy slowed down, growing at +1,6%, compared to +3,4% in Q4 2023 and 4,9% in Q3 2023. They explained that: “The increase in the first quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and housing investment that were partly offset by a decrease in inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased”.

Leading Indicators and Economic Surveys

Over the years, economists got used to looking at several surveys which can reveal trends that help anticipate economic cycles. Leading indicators are precisely those indexes which move before the economy does.

There are multiple indicators that can be observed. One of the most relevant is the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by S&P Global, which has just been updated with April data⁹. There have been only minor variations since late 2023, but in April, the PMI Composite Output index stood at 50,9, a 4-month low. Same trajectory for the Manufacturing PMI at a 4-month low of 49,9, as well as for other indexes studied by the agency, such as the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index, respectively at a 3-month and 5-month lows.

Another interesting one is the Consumer Sentiment Index elaborated by the University of Michigan, presented in Figure 4: in July 2022, it was at its all-time minimum of 50, before recovering and reaching 79,4 in March 2024, thanks to a large improvement in January 2024. Last estimate for April 2024 shows a -1,9% decrease at 77,9¹⁰ ¹¹.

The housing market also provides significant insights, as shown in Figure 5 with data provided by the US Census Bureau: the housing market showed signals that it was falling apart before the start of the recession linked to the Great Financial Crisis. Additionally, we can observe that, starting in 2022, the index accounting for New Housing Units Authorized but Not Started (on the right y-axis) has recorded both a significant gap - which happened before - and a trend inversion with respect to the other two, for the first time since it exists¹². We should dive into the data to deepen our understanding of the phenomenon, but it could be due to rising inflation and thus increasing interest rates, which blocked predicted investments. Housing is indeed the sector that reacts the most to rate movements, as they directly impact mortgages.

According to all these figures, despite strong economic growth and low unemployment, early 2024 does not stand out for economic optimism in the US, probably because of worries linked to rising inflation and interest rates.

External Trade

The US have been running a negative current account since 1977 (with the exception of 1980, 1981 and 1991)¹³ due to a large trade deficit. As shown in Figure 6 with data from the BEA (provided in current USD), this deficit improved following the Great Financial Crisis, and started decreasing again after 2013, accelerating since 2019 - probably as a consequence of the COVID pandemic as well - to then improve again in 2023, as exports value went up. In Figure 7 (again with BEA data in current USD), we can take a look at the evolution of the value of US exports and imports of goods and services (G&S). I also calculated the trade balance, whose trend is obviously pretty similar to that of the current account balance (as it is its main component), improving in 2023 as a result of a decrease of imports value.

The US have been actually running a surplus in services trade since 1999 at least¹⁴, as their exports are high and expand rapidly, whilst imports’ trajectory was much flatter between 2008 and 2016, to then start accelerating in 2017 because of the “Transport”, “Financial Services” and “Other Business Services” sectors. On the exports side, the sectors that contributed the most to this rapid expansion over the period are “Financial Services” and “Other Business Services” (notably “Professional and Management Consulting Services”)¹⁵.

For what concerns the trade in goods, the country has run a deficit since 1999 at least. Imports are really large, as they reached an all-time high of 3.272.935 million USD in 2022, whereas exports were stuck at 2.089.925 million USD in the same year. The US recorded a strong growth in the export of “Industrial Supply and Materials”, especially thanks to “Energy Products” - petroleum and natural gas in primis - whose exports were already on an increasing trend and exploded in 2022 due to the energy crisis that hit Europe following the outbreak of the Ukrainian War. On the imports side, “Machinery and Equipment except Consumer-type” have been remarkably increasing since 2007, and “Medicinal, Dental, and Pharmaceutical Products” doubled between 2015 and 2023; “Automotive Vehicles, Parts, and Engines” has been more linear, but peaking at 459.621 million USD in 2023¹⁶.

An important deficit in the trade in goods determines the trend of US trade balance, but we should note that in 2023 both imports and exports decreased, with the latter recording a stronger reduction than the former.

As we can see in Figure 8 presenting BEA monthly data, since late 2023 the US trade balance has worsened, and continued decreasing in the first months of 2024 reaching -68.901 million USD in February

Labour Market

Historically, the US labour market has always been particularly dynamic, notably due to a legislation which is remarkably different from the one in place in European welfare-oriented States. This has had two main implications: the US unemployment rate has been quite low compared to that of other advanced economies in Europe, but it also reacts faster and more heavily to shocks of any kind, as we saw during the pandemic (in April 2020 unemployment rose to a record high of 14,7%, the highest in the history of the series, which dates back to 1948¹⁷).

To provide some context, Figure 9 presents a comparison of the evolution of the annual unemployment rate in the United States and the Eurozone since 2007 according to the World Bank, which confirms that unemployment is usually lower in the US. It is interesting to note how the two labour markets reacted differently to the Great Financial Crisis: in the US, unemployment rose only between 2007 and 2010 (with a very rapid increase between 2008 and 2009), whilst in the Euro Area this increase has lasted until 2013. The crisis had a stronger long-lasting effect on the European economy, which was subsequently hit by the European Sovereign Debt Crisis as well, so that its recovery started only in 2014. The US were already close to their 2007 pre-crisis level in 2015, whilst the Eurozone had to wait until 2019. Lastly, COVID had almost no impact on unemployment in the Euro Area, compared to the great effect we observed in the US.

Since December 2010 (excluding the pandemic period), unemployment has been on a steadily decreasing trend, reaching very low levels standing at ~4% since October 2017. These evidences made the Federal Reserve System (FED) lower multiple times its estimates of the natural unemployment rate (or non-accelerating wage rate of unemployment) from 5,4% in early 2014 to 4,5% in early 2018 and 4,2% in July 2019 (when the unemployment rate already stood at a lower 3,7%), as pointed out by the FED Chair Jerome Powell, questioning the concept of a Phillips Curve - as well as that of the existence of a NAWRU, at least as we conceived it in recent decades - at the House of Representatives in July 2019¹⁸ ¹⁹. In September 2019, unemployment fell at 3,5%, the lowest rate since November 1969²⁰. In April 2023, it decreased at 3,4%, the lowest since May 1969²¹.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) seasonally adjusted surveys, unemployment stood at 3,8% in March 2024, a 0,1 pp less compared to February 2024, and the first decrease since November 2023²². The US labour market has been pretty stable since January 2022, moving into a tight 3,5% to 4% range.

Taking a look at the World Bank labour force numbers data in Figure 10, the US had a fewer total labor force than the Eurozone, but the gap is narrowing. As the Eurozone GDP was - and is - lower than the American one, this means that US workers are more productive. To assess this, Figure 11 from the World Bank shows that the GDP per employed person at constant 2017 USD at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) was already higher in the US in 1990 (first available data), and since then the gap has been widening as the Euro Area grows much slower. Amongst the large advanced economies, in 2023 only Italy had a figure close to that of the US at 112.055 USD, followed by France and Germany at 106.471 USD and 105,642 USD respectively. Even the closest Italian data is 20.854 USD far from the American 132.909 USD. This highlights how productive the average worker in the US is compared to those from the rest of the world.

Inflation

People were not used to it anymore when, starting in 2021, and increasingly in 2022, inflation hit the West again. The BEA data for inflation - measured through the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index²³ - in the US, presented in Figure 12, show how inflation started increasing in December 2020, followed by a disinflation period between April and September 2021. Prices accelerated their growth again between October 2021 and June 2022, when inflation peaked at 0,9% change from the preceding period. Prices stagnated between October and November 2023, and then started increasing again at 0,4% in January 2024 and 0,3% in both February and March. It is worth noting that, since July 2022, PCE and Core PCE (which excludes food, energy and sometimes housing, as these are the sectors more subject to high volatility) have been following the same trend.

Whilst in Europe inflation was driven in particular by the strong increase of energy prices, in the US, even if this played a role as well in fostering the rise in prices (at least until June 2022), the latter was also determined by a remarkable surge in rents²⁴. Energy prices decreased between July 2022 and May 2023, except in October 2022, January and April 2023; they were again decreasing between October 2023 and January 2024, but stood at +2,3% in February 2024, and at +1,2% in March 2024.

For a matter of comprehensiveness, in Figure 13 we can also take a look at the Consumer Price Index (CPI), elaborated by the BLS, with figures representing the percentage change over a year. By comparing the two, we see that they were pretty consistent, even if the CPI peaked higher in 2022. Focusing on early 2024, CPI figures are a little higher than PCE ones, but both recorded an increase in March, at 3,48% for CPI and 2,71% for PCE.

Fiscal and Monetary Policies

Given the economic fundamentals analyzed above, it is now time to take a look at how American policymakers intervened to foster economic growth.

In the last few years, monetary policy has played a fundamental role in countering inflation. In Figure 14 with data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), we can take a look at the evolution of policy rates defined by Central Banks in several advanced economies. It is worth noting how low they were in the US between December 2008 and November 2015, and in the Eurozone, dealing with the zero lower bound between March 2016 and June 2022. Due to rising prices, Central Banks employed a contractionary policy by rapidly increasing rates; first, the US starting in March 2022, followed by the Eurozone in August. As usual, the FED was more reactive than the ECB. As shown in the graph, the rates has been stable at 5,375% since July 2023 in the US and at 4,5% since September 2023 in the Eurozone. Comparing to other countries, Japan has been experiencing zero lower bound since the 1990s, and we can see that its rates rarely move (they have been increased precisely this March for the first time since 2007, as they were stuck at -0,1% ) and are still amongst the lower in the world. Switzerland rates were pretty low as well over the period, even if the Helvetics increased them a bit between 2022 and 2023. The UK response to the inflationary trend has been similar to that of the US.

For what concerns the fiscal side, as anticipated in the presentation, the US approved a massive stimulus package in August 2022, the Inflation Reduction Act, whose cost was estimated in April 2023 at over 1 trillion USD for the period 2023/2032 by the University of Pennsylvania²⁵. Initially designed to be the largest nationwide public investment since the New Deal at over 3,5 trillion USD, it was then revised and reduced in size following negotiations amongst the Democrats; it will still be the most important green investment in the country’s history. Built on the intention to foster American recovery in the post-COVID era, the IRA contains measure to face climate change through a green plan and to reduce inequalities in healthcare, as well as promote the “Made in America” industry (in sectors such as batteries and renewable energy ones), in compliance with a doctrine based on economic sovereignty. According to estimates, the plan will raise 739 billion USD from several tax reforms and a price reform concerning prescription drugs²⁶.

Risks to the Outlook

To sum up, the US economy is currently in good shape, as growth continues to be stronger than that of other advanced economies, including all other G7 countries. In mid-April the IMF upgraded its forecast for US economic growth to 2,7% this year, up from the 2,1% figure predicted as recently as January. According to the same report “astonishingly, the US economy has already surged past its pre-pandemic growth trend”, but they also urge the FED not to run on monetary easing, as a higher-than-expected inflation trend is heating the economy up²⁷. The unemployment rate stays low, as the labour market is still pretty dynamic. Note that this volatility could also become a cause for concern, as we saw at the start of the pandemic.

An aggressive post-COVID fiscal policy is helping to foster economic development, notably in the secondary sector - through a program of reindustralization of the United States - and by making the US economy greener. The former can be important in improving the US trade balance - as well as dealing with the strong regional inequalities that have been increasingly characterizing the country since globalization - whilst the latter also plays a fundamental role in keeping the country as innovating as it has shown it can be.

Depending on the economic school of thought we belong to, some could be worried by recent US large fiscal deficits, presented in Figure 15 (and estimated by the IMF to stay at ~6% of GDP in the next five years²⁸), and the consequent increase of its debt²⁹ ³⁰, as you can see in Figure 16. We got used to measuring debt as the ratio of debt over GDP, but this actually does not make much sense, as, by doing that, we compare a stock with a flow, so that when we say that the debt equals 100% of the GDP we are just saying that it equals one year of output. That is the reason why we should rather look at interest payments as a percentage of GDP. In Figure 17, we can see that interest payments as a % of GDP had been decreasing starting in the late 1990s because of lower US Treasury Securities rates, as shown in Figure 18 (as we entered a period of low inflation and low policy rates)³¹. Nevertheless, as inflation and policy rates increased, US Treasury Securities did as well, and interest payments have been dramatically rising since early 2022, so that it is estimated by the BEA that in Q4 2023 the US paid for the first time more than 1 trillion USD in interests³².

It is worth mentioning that it is reductive to just quantitatively look at these numbers as, to actually assess the US deficit in a proper way, we should analyze it qualitatively to see how they are actually spending the money they borrowed. Long-term investments can have a positive impact which counterbalances what some would call a negative debt effect.

Policy Options

Considering the large trade deficit the US have been recording since the late 1970s, the massive deindustrialization the country faced³³, and still how polluting its economy is³⁴, the IRA looks like a great tool to improve the current situation, by boosting economic growth through investments in innovation and national industry, notably in the renewable energy and batteries sectors.

As inequalities are another terrific issue in the United States, it would have been even better if the original Build Back Better Act were to be approved. The 3 trillion USD plan also included measures to fight poverty by tackling issues in the housing market, as well as by granting a fairer healthcare system and free tertiary education for all Americans. An ambitious act like this would benefit the American welfare State, upgrading it in step with the times.

Annexes

GDP: Components and Sectors

Table 1: US GDP by Component
Indicator	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Gross domestic product	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %	100 %
Personal consumption expenditures	67.1 %	67.2 %	68 %	67.5 %	67.6 %	67 %	66.8 %	67 %	67.2 %	67.6 %	67.8 %	67.6 %	67.3 %	67.1 %	68.8 %	69.2 %	68.9 %
Goods	20.4 %	19.7 %	19.6 %	19.7 %	19.8 %	19.7 %	20 %	20.4 %	20.8 %	21.1 %	21.5 %	21.7 %	21.8 %	23.4 %	24.6 %	24.2 %	24.1 %
Durable goods	5.9 %	5.5 %	5.3 %	5.5 %	5.7 %	5.9 %	6.1 %	6.4 %	6.7 %	6.9 %	7.2 %	7.5 %	7.5 %	8.3 %	9.2 %	9 %	9.1 %
Nondurable goods	14.5 %	14.3 %	14.4 %	14.3 %	14.2 %	13.9 %	13.9 %	14 %	14.1 %	14.2 %	14.3 %	14.2 %	14.3 %	15.1 %	15.5 %	15.2 %	15 %
Services	46.8 %	47.6 %	48.6 %	48 %	48 %	47.4 %	46.8 %	46.6 %	46.5 %	46.5 %	46.3 %	45.9 %	45.5 %	43.8 %	44.3 %	45.1 %	45 %
Gross private domestic investment	16.7 %	15.3 %	12.4 %	13.8 %	14.4 %	15.7 %	16.5 %	17.1 %	17.7 %	17.3 %	17.7 %	18.2 %	18.3 %	17.8 %	18.3 %	18.8 %	18.1 %
Fixed investment	16.6 %	15.6 %	13.5 %	13.5 %	14.3 %	15.4 %	16 %	16.7 %	17 %	17.2 %	17.5 %	17.9 %	17.9 %	17.9 %	18.2 %	18.1 %	17.7 %
Nonresidential	11.9 %	12 %	10.5 %	10.7 %	11.4 %	12.3 %	12.6 %	13.3 %	13.3 %	13.3 %	13.6 %	14.1 %	14.3 %	13.9 %	13.9 %	14.4 %	14.6 %
Structures	3.7 %	4 %	3.3 %	2.7 %	2.8 %	3 %	3 %	3.3 %	3.2 %	3 %	3 %	3.1 %	3.1 %	2.9 %	2.6 %	2.5 %	2.8 %
Equipment	5 %	4.8 %	3.9 %	4.5 %	5 %	5.5 %	5.7 %	5.9 %	6 %	5.8 %	5.9 %	6.1 %	6 %	5.5 %	5.5 %	5.7 %	5.6 %
Intellectual property products	3.3 %	3.4 %	3.5 %	3.5 %	3.7 %	3.7 %	3.9 %	4 %	4.1 %	4.4 %	4.6 %	4.9 %	5.1 %	5.5 %	5.7 %	6.1 %	6.3 %
Residential	4.9 %	3.7 %	3 %	2.8 %	2.8 %	3.1 %	3.4 %	3.4 %	3.7 %	3.9 %	3.9 %	3.8 %	3.7 %	4 %	4.2 %	3.8 %	3.3 %
Change in private inventories	0.2 %	-0.2 %	-1 %	0.3 %	0.3 %	0.4 %	0.6 %	0.5 %	0.7 %	0.2 %	0.2 %	0.3 %	0.3 %	-0.1 %	0.1 %	0.6 %	0.2 %
Net exports of goods and services	-3.8 %	-2.9 %	-2.1 %	-2.3 %	-2.1 %	-1.9 %	-1.7 %	-1.9 %	-2.5 %	-2.6 %	-2.8 %	-2.9 %	-3 %	-3.3 %	-4.4 %	-4.8 %	-4.1 %
Exports	10.4 %	11 %	10.4 %	11.4 %	12 %	12.2 %	12.3 %	12.5 %	12.1 %	12 %	12.2 %	12.2 %	11.9 %	10.6 %	10.7 %	11.2 %	11.2 %
Goods	6.8 %	7.2 %	6.5 %	7.3 %	7.8 %	7.9 %	8 %	8.1 %	7.8 %	7.8 %	7.9 %	8 %	7.8 %	7.2 %	7.3 %	7.6 %	7.6 %
Services	3.6 %	3.7 %	3.8 %	4 %	4.2 %	4.3 %	4.3 %	4.3 %	4.3 %	4.2 %	4.3 %	4.2 %	4.1 %	3.4 %	3.4 %	3.6 %	3.6 %
Imports	14.2 %	13.9 %	12.4 %	13.7 %	14.1 %	14.1 %	14 %	14.4 %	14.7 %	14.6 %	14.9 %	15.1 %	14.9 %	13.9 %	15 %	16 %	15.3 %
Goods	11.5 %	11.1 %	9.6 %	10.8 %	11.3 %	11.3 %	11.3 %	11.6 %	11.9 %	11.9 %	12.1 %	12.3 %	12.1 %	11.7 %	12.6 %	13.2 %	12.7 %
Services	2.7 %	2.8 %	2.9 %	2.9 %	2.9 %	2.9 %	2.7 %	2.8 %	2.7 %	2.8 %	2.9 %	2.8 %	2.8 %	2.2 %	2.4 %	2.8 %	2.7 %
Government consumption expenditures and gross investment	19.9 %	20.4 %	21.7 %	21.1 %	20.1 %	19.2 %	18.4 %	17.8 %	17.6 %	17.7 %	17.3 %	17.2 %	17.4 %	18.4 %	17.3 %	16.8 %	17.1 %
Federal	7.2 %	7.7 %	8.4 %	8.5 %	8.1 %	7.8 %	7.2 %	6.9 %	6.7 %	6.6 %	6.5 %	6.5 %	6.6 %	7.1 %	6.8 %	6.5 %	6.6 %
National defense	4.6 %	4.9 %	5.3 %	5.3 %	5.1 %	4.9 %	4.4 %	4.2 %	4 %	3.9 %	3.8 %	3.8 %	3.9 %	4.1 %	3.8 %	3.7 %	3.7 %
Nondefense	2.6 %	2.7 %	3 %	3.1 %	3 %	2.9 %	2.8 %	2.7 %	2.7 %	2.7 %	2.6 %	2.7 %	2.6 %	3 %	3 %	2.8 %	2.9 %
State and local	12.7 %	12.7 %	13.3 %	12.6 %	12 %	11.5 %	11.2 %	10.9 %	11 %	11.1 %	10.9 %	10.7 %	10.8 %	11.2 %	10.5 %	10.3 %	10.5 %
Residual	-0.5 %	-0.5 %	-0.5 %	-0.4 %	-0.2 %	-0.1 %	0 %	0 %	0 %	0 %	0 %	0 %	0 %	-0.1 %	-0.1 %	-0.1 %	-0.1 %

Table 2: US GDP Growth by Component
Indicator	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Gross domestic product	2 %	0.1 %	-2.6 %	2.7 %	1.6 %	2.3 %	2.1 %	2.5 %	2.9 %	1.8 %	2.5 %	3 %	2.5 %	-2.2 %	5.8 %	1.9 %	2.5 %
Personal consumption expenditures	2.4 %	0.1 %	-1.3 %	1.9 %	1.7 %	1.4 %	1.7 %	2.8 %	3.4 %	2.5 %	2.6 %	2.7 %	2 %	-2.5 %	8.4 %	2.5 %	2.2 %
Goods	2.8 %	-3 %	-3.1 %	2.8 %	2.2 %	2.1 %	3.4 %	4.4 %	5 %	3.6 %	4.1 %	4 %	3 %	4.9 %	11.3 %	0.3 %	2 %
Durable goods	4.8 %	-5.7 %	-6.1 %	5.6 %	5.1 %	6 %	6.1 %	7.4 %	7.7 %	5.4 %	6.8 %	6.6 %	3.3 %	8 %	16.7 %	-0.3 %	4.2 %
Nondurable goods	1.7 %	-1.6 %	-1.7 %	1.6 %	0.9 %	0.4 %	2.2 %	3 %	3.7 %	2.8 %	2.8 %	2.6 %	2.9 %	3.3 %	8.5 %	0.6 %	0.8 %
Services	2.2 %	1.8 %	-0.4 %	1.5 %	1.5 %	1 %	0.9 %	2.1 %	2.6 %	1.9 %	1.9 %	2.2 %	1.5 %	-5.9 %	6.9 %	3.7 %	2.3 %
Gross private domestic investment	-2.5 %	-8.3 %	-21 %	14 %	6.7 %	11 %	7.4 %	6.5 %	6.2 %	-0.1 %	4.4 %	5.8 %	3.1 %	-4.7 %	8.7 %	4.8 %	-1.2 %
Fixed investment	-1.2 %	-5.8 %	-16 %	3.1 %	7.2 %	10.1 %	6.1 %	7.4 %	4.6 %	2.9 %	4.5 %	5.1 %	2.7 %	-2.1 %	7.1 %	1.3 %	0.6 %
Nonresidential	6.9 %	0.6 %	-14.5 %	4.5 %	8.7 %	9.5 %	4.7 %	8.2 %	3.2 %	1.8 %	4.6 %	6.9 %	3.7 %	-4.7 %	5.9 %	5.2 %	4.5 %
Structures	13.3 %	6.5 %	-18.7 %	-16 %	3.1 %	13.3 %	1.1 %	11.2 %	0.2 %	-3.1 %	2.6 %	5.8 %	2.5 %	-9.5 %	-3.2 %	-2.1 %	13.2 %
Equipment	4 %	-4.8 %	-21.2 %	20.2 %	13.4 %	11 %	5.5 %	7.9 %	3.8 %	-0.9 %	3.8 %	5.9 %	1.1 %	-10.1 %	6.4 %	5.2 %	-0.3 %
Intellectual property products	6.3 %	3.8 %	-0.5 %	2.7 %	6.2 %	5 %	6.3 %	6.3 %	4.7 %	9.5 %	6.9 %	8.9 %	7.8 %	4.5 %	10.4 %	9.1 %	4.5 %
Residential	-18.7 %	-24.2 %	-21.7 %	-3.1 %	-0.1 %	13 %	12.7 %	4.3 %	10.6 %	7.1 %	4.3 %	-0.7 %	-0.9 %	7.2 %	10.7 %	-9 %	-10.6 %
Exports	8.8 %	5.8 %	-8.3 %	12.6 %	7.2 %	4 %	3 %	3.9 %	0.3 %	0.5 %	4.1 %	2.9 %	0.5 %	-13.1 %	6.3 %	7 %	2.6 %
Goods	7 %	5.9 %	-11.9 %	15.2 %	7.5 %	4 %	2.9 %	4.5 %	-0.3 %	0.6 %	4.1 %	4.2 %	0.2 %	-10 %	7.6 %	5.8 %	2.6 %
Services	13.1 %	5.6 %	0 %	7.5 %	6.5 %	4.2 %	3.2 %	2.7 %	1.7 %	0.2 %	4.1 %	0.3 %	1.2 %	-18.7 %	3.8 %	9.6 %	2.5 %
Imports	2.6 %	-2.1 %	-12.6 %	13 %	4.8 %	2.4 %	1.2 %	5.2 %	5.2 %	1.5 %	4.7 %	4 %	1.2 %	-9 %	14.5 %	8.6 %	-1.7 %
Goods	1.9 %	-3.3 %	-15.5 %	15.4 %	5.5 %	2.6 %	2 %	5.6 %	5.8 %	1.1 %	4.5 %	5.1 %	0.6 %	-5.9 %	14.6 %	6.8 %	-1.6 %
Services	5.9 %	3.7 %	1 %	3.6 %	1.7 %	1.5 %	-2.5 %	3.2 %	2.5 %	3 %	5.7 %	-0.6 %	4 %	-21.9 %	13.9 %	17.5 %	-1.7 %
Government consumption expenditures and gross investment	1.8 %	2.5 %	3.6 %	-0.1 %	-3.2 %	-2.1 %	-2.4 %	-0.9 %	2 %	2 %	0.6 %	2 %	3.9 %	3.2 %	-0.3 %	-0.9 %	4.1 %
Federal	2 %	6.3 %	6.2 %	4 %	-2.7 %	-1.9 %	-5.4 %	-2.5 %	0.1 %	0.6 %	0.5 %	3.5 %	3.8 %	6.1 %	1.4 %	-2.8 %	4.2 %
National defense	2.8 %	6.9 %	5.7 %	2.9 %	-2.1 %	-3.4 %	-6.6 %	-4 %	-2 %	-0.5 %	1 %	3.5 %	5.3 %	2.8 %	-1.9 %	-2.8 %	3.4 %
Nondefense	0.4 %	5.3 %	7.2 %	6 %	-3.7 %	0.8 %	-3.5 %	0 %	3.4 %	2.2 %	-0.2 %	3.4 %	1.7 %	10.9 %	5.9 %	-2.9 %	5.2 %
State and local	1.7 %	0.2 %	1.9 %	-2.8 %	-3.5 %	-2.2 %	-0.3 %	0.2 %	3.3 %	2.8 %	0.6 %	1.1 %	4 %	1.4 %	-1.3 %	0.2 %	4 %

Table 3: US GDP by Industry (Chained Billions USD)
Industry	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Gross domestic product	19612.1	20193.9	20692.1	20234.1	21407.7	21822.0	22376.9
Private industries	17156.3	17711.8	18195.8	17761.9	18909.5	19283.1	19804.2
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting	176.8	184.1	171.1	173.7	183.7	170.1	180.1
Farms	138.7	144.1	130.0	130.2	141.1	128.6	136.6
Forestry, fishing, and related activities	38.1	40.0	40.9	43.0	42.1	41.6	43.6
Mining	267.3	277.0	314.6	305.6	269.5	245.3	293.4
Oil and gas extraction	161.1	151.4	192.1	210.9	161.0	135.8	180.0
Mining, except oil and gas	52.3	50.7	51.1	55.1	54.8	54.9	56.7
Support activities for mining	53.9	77.5	72.6	47.4	52.6	61.4	59.1
Utilities	313.7	309.3	312.9	332.3	316.6	318.4	343.8
Construction	840.2	863.8	882.0	856.5	888.1	827.8	836.0
Manufacturing	2109.7	2213.0	2223.3	2127.1	2248.1	2277.8	2290.6
Durable goods	1178.3	1227.6	1241.4	1171.7	1249.5	1297.0	1319.3
Wood products	35.7	33.9	35.1	36.9	35.8	34.3	36.9
Nonmetallic mineral products	58.5	58.3	60.6	59.0	61.2	59.8	54.4
Primary metals	59.8	60.0	67.0	71.8	66.4	80.5	92.5
Fabricated metal products	144.8	150.7	149.3	135.3	136.5	125.5	121.5
Machinery	147.6	156.4	154.2	138.5	153.9	161.8	151.7
Computer and electronic products	248.7	264.5	273.0	279.1	303.0	303.0	298.5
Electrical equipment, appliances, and components	57.6	57.5	55.3	52.8	52.9	50.1	50.8
Motor vehicles, bodies and trailers, and parts	159.1	165.7	167.2	148.0	169.8	200.8	223.0
Other transportation equipment	150.9	159.0	162.1	137.9	149.9	167.6	187.1
Furniture and related products	28.9	30.3	29.1	27.3	28.1	26.6	22.5
Miscellaneous manufacturing	86.6	91.9	88.9	87.6	98.0	102.8	102.7
Nondurable goods	931.4	985.2	982.0	955.7	999.6	985.4	978.3
Food and beverage and tobacco products	275.3	274.1	267.2	267.5	285.5	307.1	300.9
Textile mills and textile product mills	17.3	16.4	16.0	15.0	15.6	15.1	14.1
Apparel and leather and allied products	9.4	9.4	9.8	9.8	10.3	10.5	10.5
Paper products	55.9	59.5	62.7	67.5	64.4	60.2	56.3
Printing and related support activities	40.6	42.0	40.7	35.1	37.4	35.0	32.3
Petroleum and coal products	110.7	116.1	132.6	88.1	105.9	82.3	83.9
Chemical products	345.1	387.5	367.9	387.0	399.0	413.0	424.2
Plastics and rubber products	77.2	80.1	81.6	76.9	74.8	65.8	61.0
Wholesale trade	1176.1	1185.9	1191.4	1200.2	1192.8	1146.8	1125.2
Retail trade	1178.9	1220.1	1253.3	1235.0	1241.2	1182.3	1293.6
Motor vehicle and parts dealers	235.8	243.7	260.0	225.7	195.2	166.4	216.3
Food and beverage stores	162.1	158.6	160.2	174.0	182.6	170.0	162.3
General merchandise stores	152.1	158.3	157.1	168.1	180.5	157.3	152.9
Other retail	629.0	659.6	676.3	668.1	694.4	709.0	770.4
Transportation and warehousing	635.5	657.6	658.6	604.1	685.6	699.3	729.8
Air transportation	128.7	133.9	133.3	71.2	122.2	156.0	172.8
Rail transportation	44.3	44.9	41.9	37.3	40.3	42.6	39.4
Water transportation	14.0	14.5	13.4	13.2	14.6	13.2	12.1
Truck transportation	178.0	177.8	176.4	174.0	186.2	170.1	176.0
Transit and ground passenger transportation	43.4	46.8	54.2	42.1	48.0	60.1	67.3
Pipeline transportation	41.0	43.3	35.0	32.7	37.3	37.2	38.2
Other transportation and support activities	125.0	129.8	133.7	149.1	150.5	148.1	164.7
Warehousing and storage	61.1	66.8	71.7	79.8	92.9	92.4	84.4
Information	1010.0	1066.0	1176.8	1221.1	1400.5	1505.5	1598.1
Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)	236.0	253.0	286.3	311.6	360.3	391.1	419.9
Motion picture and sound recording industries	97.7	93.2	90.0	78.7	93.3	101.2	105.4
Broadcasting and telecommunications	462.1	482.4	513.4	499.2	525.1	549.3	558.1
Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services	214.2	237.8	288.5	334.1	425.9	468.6	521.0
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing	4033.0	4093.2	4174.7	4217.7	4449.5	4549.9	4539.3
Finance and insurance	1508.0	1471.8	1520.6	1542.5	1616.9	1591.7	1546.8
Federal Reserve banks, credit intermediation, and related activities	648.9	622.9	651.4	692.6	725.5	644.4	601.8
Securities, commodity contracts, and investments	283.4	273.6	256.9	264.5	259.0	304.2	332.3
Insurance carriers and related activities	568.9	575.2	612.4	583.2	607.7	634.6	605.8
Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles	6.8	0.6	0.8	1.0	36.2	20.4	17.9
Real estate and rental and leasing	2525.0	2622.8	2654.8	2675.6	2833.5	2962.3	2999.2
Real estate	2312.8	2398.0	2416.6	2435.7	2576.5	2689.4	2719.9
Housing	1795.3	1819.7	1840.2	1864.4	1931.4	1988.9	2024.2
Other real estate	517.4	579.0	576.9	571.4	647.4	705.4	698.9
Rental and leasing services and lessors of intangible assets	212.3	224.8	238.4	240.2	257.4	273.4	279.8
Professional and business services	2433.6	2584.6	2710.3	2694.7	3000.5	3224.6	3323.0
Professional, scientific, and technical services	1460.6	1558.1	1642.0	1651.4	1846.2	1972.6	2070.5
Legal services	266.4	269.0	270.4	253.7	268.2	263.4	255.9
Computer systems design and related services	326.4	374.1	406.3	434.7	498.3	546.6	607.6
Miscellaneous professional, scientific, and technical services	867.8	915.9	967.5	969.3	1090.6	1180.9	1238.2
Management of companies and enterprises	370.1	395.0	421.7	430.8	475.2	524.1	538.5
Administrative and waste management services	602.9	631.6	647.2	614.8	681.4	731.7	721.3
Administrative and support services	549.7	577.6	593.8	562.7	627.3	675.0	669.2
Waste management and remediation services	53.2	54.0	53.6	52.1	54.6	57.2	53.2
Educational services, health care, and social assistance	1716.9	1765.1	1820.7	1767.5	1852.2	1923.2	2018.3
Educational services	245.6	251.0	257.2	236.8	244.9	258.7	266.4
Health care and social assistance	1471.3	1514.1	1563.6	1531.1	1607.7	1664.8	1752.2
Ambulatory health care services	709.7	736.5	773.8	742.7	807.1	835.6	901.4
Hospitals	486.2	496.9	503.9	506.0	517.0	527.0	541.5
Nursing and residential care facilities	147.4	148.2	147.0	146.2	142.1	149.4	152.2
Social assistance	128.2	132.5	139.3	136.0	142.9	153.9	160.3
Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services	831.2	847.1	865.1	636.1	797.9	884.1	914.8
Arts, entertainment, and recreation	213.8	222.3	226.1	155.7	196.1	240.1	259.2
Performing arts, spectator sports, museums, and related activities	126.8	134.1	136.7	94.6	113.5	149.9	167.6
Amusements, gambling, and recreation industries	87.0	88.3	89.5	61.2	82.2	90.9	93.2
Accommodation and food services	617.4	624.8	639.0	480.3	601.8	645.4	658.3
Accommodation	176.3	177.8	180.9	132.9	171.1	180.2	190.8
Food services and drinking places	441.1	447.0	458.1	347.3	431.1	465.4	468.1
Other services, except government	433.2	447.1	449.0	407.2	420.9	434.2	427.5
Government	2455.8	2483.1	2499.1	2464.6	2485.1	2525.6	2560.2
Federal	766.5	772.3	776.7	802.4	808.0	802.5	813.1
General government	702.1	706.9	715.3	735.9	744.8	743.5	753.3
National defense	405.6	407.9	412.9	420.7	424.7	419.5	418.7
Nondefense	296.5	299.0	302.4	315.2	320.1	324.1	334.8
Government enterprises	64.3	65.4	61.4	66.5	63.3	59.3	60.2
State and local	1689.4	1710.8	1722.4	1662.9	1677.8	1723.8	1747.7
General government	1544.9	1558.7	1577.4	1534.3	1535.7	1563.4	1602.1
Government enterprises	144.5	152.2	145.0	128.4	143.0	164.0	146.8
Not allocated by industry	314.5	297.5	302.3	274.1	206.5	35.6	-245.2
Private goods-producing industries	3394.1	3537.7	3592.7	3463.5	3597.9	3517.0	3611.5
Private services-producing industries	13762.2	14173.8	14602.6	14296.6	15306.7	15766.8	16194.6
Information-communications-technology-producing industries	1309.3	1426.3	1579.1	1679.7	1924.7	2073.5	NA

Leading Indicators and Economic Surveys

Note that these data are expressed in thousands of units.

External Trade

Note that in this section I always refer to trade value and that all data are provided by the BEA in current USD, which means that the figures are not adjusted for inflation.