Is It Necessary? The Effects of Police Militarization on Police Killings

Max Pietrykowski, Will Pickren, Tobias Lafayette

Tyranny Comes Home

Introduction

Following the insights of Coyne and Hall, 2013, Lawson, 2019, and Balko 2013, we expect to see more fatal police encounters as a result of increased militarization.

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Literature Review

  1. Hall, Abigail R., and Christopher J. Coyne. “The Militarization of U.S. Domestic Policing.” The Independent Review

  2. Lawson, Edward. “TRENDS: Police Militarization and the Use of Lethal Force.” Political Research Quarterly

  3. Balko, Radley. “Rise of the Warrior Cop: The Militarization of America’s Police Forces.” New York, NY. Public Affairs. 2013.

  4. Meeks, Daryl. “Police Militarization in Urban Areas: The Obscure War Against the Underclass.” The Black Scholar

Empirical Specification

\[ \tiny \text{Fatal Encounters} = \beta_0 + \beta_1 \text{Militarization} +\beta_2 \text{Police Density} + \epsilon \]

Controls:

\[\tiny\beta_3 \text{Population}\] \[\tiny\beta_4 \text{Violent Crime}\] \[\tiny\beta_5 \text{Race}\] \[\tiny\beta_6 \text{Education}\]

Variables

Variable Description
Number of People Killed Case where a person dies as a result of being shot, beaten, restrained, intentionally hit by a police vehicle, pepper sprayed, tasered, or otherwise harmed by police officers, whether on-duty or off-duty. The Gun Violence Archive and the Fatal Encounters database 2013-2023
Police Militarization Police Spending on Military Surplus Aqcuisition from 1033 since it’s inception in 1997
Police Density Measured as police officers per 10,000 people in the jurisdiction
Population Total number of individuals in jurisdiction
Violent Crime Rate Violent Crime was measured by percentage of cases where officers engaged the person because of reported or suspected murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, assault with a deadly weapon, or shooting/shots fired including reported attempts to commit these offenses and executing warrants related to these offenses
Race Percentage of population that is white
Education Percentage of people with a bachelor’s degree or higher

Descriptive Statistics

##  All People Killed by Police Militarization of Police
##  Min.   : 39.0               Min.   :  102994        
##  1st Qu.: 47.0               1st Qu.:  189291        
##  Median : 53.0               Median :  733000        
##  Mean   : 70.8               Mean   : 1752068        
##  3rd Qu.: 91.0               3rd Qu.: 1678410        
##  Max.   :187.0               Max.   :12359373        
##  Officers per 10k Population     White         Total Population (Census 2020)
##  Min.   : 9.724              Min.   : 116311   Min.   : 301578               
##  1st Qu.:16.093              1st Qu.: 268273   1st Qu.: 564559               
##  Median :18.135              Median : 388764   Median : 949611               
##  Mean   :22.905              Mean   : 527746   Mean   :1491620               
##  3rd Qu.:25.134              3rd Qu.: 550828   3rd Qu.:1603797               
##  Max.   :46.126              Max.   :2719856   Max.   :8804190               
##  Violent Crime Rate Educational Attainment
##  Min.   : 3.884     Min.   :22.80         
##  1st Qu.: 5.133     1st Qu.:34.30         
##  Median : 7.033     Median :36.80         
##  Mean   : 7.924     Mean   :37.93         
##  3rd Qu.: 8.670     3rd Qu.:40.20         
##  Max.   :18.104     Max.   :51.20

Methodology

Ordinary Least Squares Regression

Endogeneity

Heteroskedasticity

Results

Observations 25
Dependent variable All People Killed by Police
Type OLS linear regression
F(6,18) 10.03
R² 0.77
Adj. R² 0.69
Est. S.E. t val. p
(Intercept) -808.52 137.97 -5.86 0.00
log(Militarization_of_Police) 7.30 3.71 1.97 0.06
log(Total Population (Census 2020)) 57.24 10.84 5.28 0.00
Violent Crime Rate 3.42 1.97 1.73 0.10
Officers per 10k Population -0.13 0.90 -0.15 0.88
Black -0.00 0.00 -1.99 0.06
Educational Attainment -0.60 0.66 -0.90 0.38
Standard errors: OLS

Conclusion

  • The regression model aimed to investigate the relationship between police militarization and deaths caused by police utilizing an economic framework and empirical data.

  • Statistically significant positive relationship between the level of police militarization and police-involved fatalities

    • The study illustrates the urgent need for policymakers, law enforcement agencies, and community members to critically evaluate the implications of increasingly militarized policing strategies
    • Aligns with previous research suggesting that increased militarization may contribute to a higher likelihood of lethal police interventions.
    • Reevaluate 1033 Program

Further Research

Time Series / Longitudinal Data

Alternative Militarization Proxies