Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update
Introduction
We have updated data and forecasts for Albania, Armenia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Macedonia, Namibia, Philippines, Serbia, Turkey, Ukraine. We are forecasting major events for Cambodia.
In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.
We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.
MLP Website: here
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Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here
Albania
For Albania, our data includes coverage through the end of February 2024. Since the data was last updated through November 2023, we saw increases in reporting on:
Arrest in December: Four officials were arrested at the Durres Port on charges of office abuse. The Special Prosecutor’s Office issued 15 arrest warrants in the Tirana Intenserator case against corruption and the misuse of office in urban development projects. Operation “Kriptonite” led to the arrest of individuals involved in defrauding Greek citizens, and separate operations lead to the apprehension of the former Prime Minister for political corruption and individuals involved in drug trafficking and assistance in illegal immigration.
Legal Action in December: The Special Court for Corruption and Organised Crime’s placed former Prime Minister under house arrest. Concurrently, legal actions were taken against ex-officials, including a former Mayor of Durres and the former Mayor of Kukes, on charges of abuse of office and corruption, as well as investigations into former municipal employees. The judiciary concluded investigative proceedings against 21 individuals for drug trafficking from the Middle East to the EU. The initiation of a vetting process within the State Police aimed at eradicating internal corruption. The Supreme Court got involved in the resolution of legal disputes within the Democratic Party. There was also conviction and sentencing related to corruption in local elections, and the closure of investigations involving a former Health Minister for alleged abuses.
Legal Change in December: The Parliament approved the toughening of disciplinary actions against MPs, extending penalties for obstructing parliamentary work significantly. The Constitutional Court refused to review opposition demands related to legal actions against former Prime Minister Sali Berisha. Additional legislative actions included the authorization to arrest Berisha. Changes to the income tax law aiming to increase state revenues adjusted tax rates for individuals and businesses with high turnovers, alongside a targeted adjustment of taxation for freelancers and professionals. Furthermore, efforts to reform electoral processes were proposed, alongside amendments focusing on stricter drug control.
Security Mobilization in December: The funeral of Frede Beler’s grandmother in Himara saw a considerable deployment of security personnel to prevent potential disturbances. Similarly, the Elbasan police increased patrols to address traffic concerns and minimize road accidents, while a heightened state of alertness was observed in police facilities nationwide during end-of-week holidays. Albania decided to augment defense troops in the KFOR mission showcases. Other responses included a violent incident in Pecin High Security Prison and the bolstered police presence at the Supreme Court due to anticipated protests.
Lethal Violence in December: A high-profile prisoner was assassinated within a high-security facility. There was also an attempt by law enforcement to preempt organized crime activities through arrests and the involvement in an international extradition to tackle organized crime.
Activism in January: Former Prime Minister of Albania, Sali Berisha, called for civil disobedience in response to a new tax on free professions, identifying it as a factor potentially encouraging emigration and advising professionals to refuse payment of the tax. Furthermore, Berisha urged students and the youth to engage in opposition activities aimed at “saving” Albania. The tragic suicide of Bedrie Loka in Durres was highlighted by activist Bona Miekley as a pivotal moment in the battle against domestic violence.
Lethal Violence in January: A high-profile organized crime assassination occured in Vlora. A significant law enforcement figure took his own life under ambiguous circumstances that had led to his suspension.
Activism in February: A group of intellectuals initiated a petition against the dissemination of pseudo-scientific content on Albanian media, requesting the intervention of the Audiovisual Media Authority (AMA) and sparking a debate on the balance between media censorship and the necessity for scientific accuracy in public broadcasts. Concurrently, Sevim Arbana, a noted women’s rights advocate, engaged in activism emphasizing animal welfare in Durres. In response to the petition criticizing Albanian television content, Sazan Guri and others were accused of being disloyal to the nation, exposing deep fissures within the academic and cultural spheres about national identity and history. Additionally, an appeal was made to the Republic of Albania, the Ministry of Education, and various authoritative entities by intellectuals for enhanced control over the dissemination of public information.
Corruption in February: The former Mayor of Kukes was sentenced to prison for abuse of office. Notable figures, including a well-known businessman, faced accusations ranging from money laundering to organizing a criminal structure. The Special Structure against Corruption and Organized Crime (SPAK) seized assets from various individuals accused of leveraging criminal activities for financial gain, including using prostitution for obtaining criminal proceeds and involvement in public health sector concession fraud. Additionally, an international operation dismantled a drug trafficking network with Albania’s involvement. Charges of money laundering and corruption were also brought against a healthcare professional. Efforts to address corruption extended to the regulatory, judiciary, and public service sectors, with actions taken against individuals attempting bribery, failing to declare assets accurately, and utilizing criminal wealth for personal gain, as well as combating corruption within road traffic safety enforcement in Tirana.
Legal Change in February: The “Albania Becomes” movement proposed changes to democratize the election process through an open-list system in the Electoral Code. In response to digital harassment, Interior Minister Taulant Balla announced amendments to combat online violence, particularly blackmail involving intimate images. The Democratic Party sought to extend criminal amnesty to protesters, aiming to provide legal relief for political demonstration participants. New legislation stirred controversy by reauthorizing online sports betting, amidst accusations of monopolization and state capture, while plans to allow construction in protected areas prompted public protests. The proposed reevaluation of the public procurement law seeks to incorporate innovations like artificial intelligence and better align with EU standards.
Protest in February: A protest led to the arrest of four men who were apprehended for violent activities, including the throwing of pyrotechnics in front of the prime minister’s location, indicating the heightened tensions during opposition-led demonstrations. In a related event, supporters of the incarcerated mayor of Himara, Fred Beler, who was detained on charges of vote-buying, gathered before the Constitutional Court to protest his imprisonment. Additionally, a broader opposition protest, helmed by Sali Berisha, saw various arrests following minor skirmishes where participants resorted to throwing smoke and Molotov cocktails at government buildings.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Armenia
For Armenia, our data includes coverage through the end of February 2024. Since the data was last updated through November 2023, we saw increases in reporting on:
- Censor in December: The National Assembly’s decision against reelecting the head of an anti-corruption body was coupled with a violent attack on media outlets. A suspension and fine was imposed on Radio Sputnik Armenia by the television and radio commission. Public television outlets refused to air political campaign activities. There was reporting on an initiative by a journalist to leverage technology in censoring discussions on certain topics through collaboration with OpenAI.
- Legal Change in January: The Armenian parliament adopted amendments to the Constitution, which were subsequently challenged by President Radev before the Constitutional Court. A change in firearms legislation now permits citizens to carry firearms upon meeting certain criteria, including a psychological stability test. Military service laws were amended, allowing those over 27 to serve for reduced periods with corresponding payments. Prime Minister Pashinian indicated the need for a new constitution to better align with the “new geopolitical environment”.
Legal Change in February: Constitutional amendments included a constitutional change to adopt a neutral foreign policy stance. Judicial reforms were aimed at purifying the system by introducing external evaluations for judges and prosecutors to increase accountability and reduce corruption. National security law amendments were made. Other legal changes aimed at curbing misinformation. A comprehensive package of bills was passed to amend civil and administrative procedures, which is anticipated to streamline legal proceedings and enhance their fairness.
Lethal Violence in February: An investigation into a soldier’s death attributed to negligence among military personnel highlighted issues within military conduct and safety protocols. Incidents at the border and within military training environments in Armenia included an attack on border posts and a hazardous training session resulting in a tragic outcome.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Bangladesh
For Bangladesh, our data includes coverage through the end of February 2024. Since the data was last updated through November 2023, we saw increases in reporting on:
Security Mobilization in December: In response to the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s 36-hour blockade and anticipated national parliamentary elections, Bangladesh experienced a considerable security operation, involving the deployment of tens of thousands of police officers, Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) patrols, and other security forces across the nation. These measures aimed at maintaining order, ensuring free and peaceful elections, and securing strategic points such as train and bus stations, telecommunications areas, and public transportation systems against potential disruptions. Amid election tensions, heightened security was evident through increased surveillance and checks for explosives, significant police detail for election duty, and interventions in political expressions like human chains. The involvement of The Ansar VDP members were also involved in protecting transport and communication infrastructure.
Lethal Violence in December: In Bangladesh, Medecins Sans Frontieres reported 42 fatalities as a result of human rights abuses. Clashes within Rohingya camps resulted in several deaths, highlighting the ongoing tensions among displaced populations.
Defamation in January: The new public service minister was embroiled in a defamation lawsuit initiated by Firuzur Rahman. Another case highlighted concerns around the sensitivity of political discourse, with an independent candidate, Firhuur Rahman Olyo, accused of making derogatory remarks about the national parliamentary elections.
Security Mobilization in January: In preparation for the 12th National Assembly elections in Bangladesh, a comprehensive security operation was undertaken involving the deployment of armed forces, including the army, police, Ansar-VDP members, and the Bangladesh Border Guard, across the nation. This operation aimed to ensure free, fair, and peaceful elections through a variety of measures such as reviewing army operations, protecting public property, and maintaining order. The government also took actions against the Bangladesh Nationalist Party rallies and the suppression of a black flag march.
Non-lethal Violence in January: Clashes occurred in locations such as Kadavitua, where injuries were reported after confrontations at a university. Electoral campaign violence in Comilla, involving supporters, police, stones, and tear gas, led to several injuries, including to policemen. Similar unrest followed elections in Munshiganj and Dhaka, where post-election clashes and violence between candidates’ supporters resulted in further injuries and damage. Student political discord was highlighted through violent encounters at Chittagong University, causing several student injuries. The contentious nature of election results was evident in Kalkini Upazila and Savar, where protests and post-election violence caused multiple injuries. Local governance and resource allocation issues came to the fore in Gopalganj, where land dispute clashes injured 15 people. A demonstration by the BNP in Jessore turned violent, with at least 30 people injured, spotlighting the challenges opposition parties face in engaging with state power.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Cambodia
For Cambodia, our data includes coverage through the end of February 2024. Since the data was last updated through November 2023, we saw increases in reporting on:
- Protest in December: More than 1,250 participants took part in a student parade for “Angkor Thanksgiving,” celebrating the nation’s rich cultural heritage.
Defamation in January: Social media influencer Ny Nak faced incitement charges for allegations against Labour Minister Heng Sour, accusing him of profiting illegally from land concessions. Another case involved the Cambodia News Agency suing a former politician for derogatory remarks about the agency’s integrity, igniting debates over press freedom and the alleged spread of government propaganda. Environmental concerns were also foregrounded in a lawsuit where an activist was accused of defaming a major agribusiness corporation by linking its plantations to illegal deforestation, underlining the contentious relationship between environmental activism and corporate interests. Political climates were further stressed in a defamation claim by an opposition party member against a government official who had accused the party of fostering unrest. Lastly, a defamation lawsuit filed by a well-known celebrity against a local news outlet for infringing on personal privacy highlighted issues surrounding media accountability and public figure rights.
Legal Action in January: A former opposition leader was sentenced for conspiring with a foreign power, underscoring the continued crackdown on political opposition. High-profile corruption charges were pursued against former government officials. Additionally, legal actions were taken against individuals for defaming national symbols and for incitement involving allegations against a government official, reflecting the tight control over social media usage and public criticism of governmental actions.
Purge in January: The Prime Minister of Cambodia, Hun Manet, dismissed the governor of Kep town, Kheng Yon.
Forecasting
In our last update, our shock models predicted a spike in reporting on Arrests in Q2 2024. Our updated models are no longer predicting elevated levels of Arrest in Q2.
Our standard models are predicting a small increase in reporting on Protest in Q2 2024.
Georgia
For Georgia, our data includes coverage through the end of February 2024. Since the data was last updated through November 2023, we saw increases in reporting on:
- Censor in December: The program “Gorgiladze’s Unbearable Lightness” was canceled by Georgia’s Public Broadcaster, raising concerns about politicization of programming decisions.
Defamation in January: In Georgia, a notable legal confrontation emerged when Zviad Kordzadze, on behalf of “Lelo” political party leader Mamuka Khazaradze, initiated a defamation lawsuit against the Mayor of Tbilisi, Kakha Kaladze. The lawsuit demanded that the court require Kaladze to retract statements claimed to be false and allegedly damaging to Khazaradze’s honor, dignity, and business reputation.
Raid in January: The Counter-Terrorist Center carried out a raid linked to false terrorism threats that raised national security concerns and hinted at potential political motives. Similarly, interventions in shopping centers due to false landmine threats spotlighted the challenges of security scares. The eviction of a family in Tbilisi by the National Bureau of Enforcement, against a backdrop of public outcry, shed light on the contentious issues of property rights and law enforcement.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan’s results are password protected. Please email for access.
Kosovo
For Kosovo, our data includes coverage through the end of February 2024. Since the data was last updated through November, we saw increases in reporting on:
Activism in December: Northern Serbs petitioned for the dismissal of Albanian mayors, citing governance disputes indicative of ethnic tensions in the area. About 200 detainees at IEVP Drinovo highlighted dire conditions, emphasizing the need for reform within the correctional system. Political opposition manifested as the Democratic Party, led by Sali Berisha, undertook civil disobedience actions against the political leadership and demanded investigations into alleged governmental misconduct. Activism against domestic violence was prominently showcased in Ferizaj, with campaigns drawing attention to the severity of the issue. The Kosova Democratic Institute pushed for the legal regulation of lobbying to enhance transparency and ethical governance.
Activism in January: Citizens in Northern Mitrovica, Zvecan, and Leposaviq, among other municipalities, actively engaged in petitioning for the dismissal of their local government leaders. The Central Election Commission took a formal step by starting the verification process of these petitions, a critical phase that could lead to significant implications for the political landscape in these areas. Furthermore, the involvement of EULEX in the oversight of this signature collection process highlights the emphasis on transparency and fairness. Support for these petitions was also acknowledged by the Minister for Communities and Return, framing it as a legitimate form of political activism within Kosovo’s legal framework.
Raid in January: Operations in Banjska, Lozist, and Zvecan targeted suspects believed to be involved with the previous year’s barricades, leading to the seizure of weapons, documents, and various equipment. Despite concerted efforts, two suspects sought in connection with the barricades eluded capture, although police were able to confiscate further weapons and documents. The Economic Crimes Police conducted a separate raid on a warehouse linked to a known terrorist. Ongoing investigations in northern Mitrovica and related areas remain part of a significant law enforcement campaign against the remnants of the barricades and related criminal activities.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
North Macedonia
For Macedonia, our data includes coverage through the end of February 2024. Since the data was last updated through November 2023, we saw increases in reporting on:
Arrest in December: Operations in Skopje and Tetovo led to the detention of individuals engaged in organized and economic crimes, showcasing the government’s crackdown on criminal networks. Furthermore, large-scale police operations in Skopje and anti-corruption measures in Prilep, including searches and detainments for economic crimes, portrayed a nation-wide drive against corruption and illicit activities.
Raid in December: In December 2023, significant law enforcement activities occurred in North Macedonia, including a raid on Skopje City Hall by financial police to investigate the procurement of New Year’s decorations, which put Mayor Danela Arsovska under scrutiny for a non-transparent agreement worth 30,000 euros. This raid underscored concerns over transparency and potential corruption in local government procurement.
Arrest in January: Authorities dismantled a significant criminal group involved in murder and drug trafficking, highlighting both international cooperation and the operation’s crucial role in combating organized crime. Another arrest related to war crimes against civilians points to the lasting impacts of past conflicts. Corruption within the public sector, including the health care system and government, led to several arrests.
Corruption in January: The opposition party VMRO-DPMNE accused the head of the Intelligence Agency and the Deputy Prime Minister of manipulating grant processes to secure a 620,000 euros grant under questionable circumstances. Similarly, the parties SDSM and DUI were implicated in a controversy endangering air traffic safety due to alleged interference with national air navigation systems. The Mayor of Ohrid faced allegations by the LSDM of misallocating over 250,000 euros to a handball club he founded, amidst suspicions of overpriced machinery purchases. Furthermore, the Health Minister was accused of nepotism for allegedly hiring family members within the Health Ministr. The Democratic Union called for an investigation into potential collusion between tax officials and oil companies over VAT refund schemes, and the party Levica accused the DUI of pre-election manipulation involving public funds.
Purge in January: Prime Minister Dimitar Kovacevski and Parliament Speaker Talat Xhaferi resigned. This shift heralded the formation of a technical government, bringing Jovan Mitrevski to the parliamentary helm and instigating significant changes in leadership roles, including the appointment of deputy ministers in anticipation of forthcoming elections. Additionally, a crackdown on judicial incompetence was signaled by the dismissal of state attorneys in Struga and Skopje. This demand was further emphasized by actions such as the suspension and replacement of MNAV’ss leadership due to misconduct, the stepping down of the Judiciary Council’s president for internal reforms, and the contentious withdrawal of a nomination for the Constitutional Court.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Namibia
For Namibia, our data includes coverage through the end of February 2024. Since the data was last updated through November 2023, we saw increases in reporting on:
Censor in December: In December 2023, Governor Bonifatius Wakudumo of the Kavango East region in Namibia was banned from attending regional council meetings as a result of allegations levied against him for exhibiting authoritarian behavior. This decision was communicated to President Hage Geingob through a letter from the regional council, indicating that the ban would remain in effect until the concerns between the council and Governor Wakudumo were adequately addressed.
Security Mobilization in December: In response to rising concerns over passenger safety during the festive season, Intercape South Africa took the initiative to significantly boost its security measures by deploying heavily armed private security guards across its bus services, aiming to safeguard passengers from potential threats.
Raid in December: The Windhoek High Court and a Ministry of Finance building in Windhoek were targeted in break-ins, as officially reported by police authorities. These incidents notably disturbed the operations of the judiciary and raised alarms regarding the safety of sensitive financial data, emphasizing concerns about the governance and financial stability of the country. Additionally, the Otjiwarongo Magistrate Court’s prosecutor’s office was burglarized, with the theft of case dockets and other items, an act confirmed by Prosecutor Joas Neemwatya. The breaches are significant for potentially attempting to manipulate or undermine judicial outcomes, thus impacting the rule of law in Namibia.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Philippines
For Philippines, our data includes coverage through the end of February 2024. Since the data was last updated through November 2023, we saw increases in reporting on:
- Legal Change in February: The Philippine Senate’s approve the “Eddie Garcia Act” aimed at protecting the welfare of workers in the entertainment sector. Legislative endeavors to protect citizens from financial cybercrime through Senate Bill No. 2560, simplify the drug approval process for increased healthcare access, and advocate for a P100 minimum wage increase were also advanced. The Supreme Court’s ruling voided a provision in the Social Security Law. Additionally, there was a push to legalize medical cannabis and the revocation of disaster fund allocation guidelines by the NDRRMC.
Forecasting
In our last update, our shock models predicted a spike in reporting on Security Mobilization in Q2 2024, and our standard models predicted a spike in reporting on Legal Actions in Q1 2024. Our models are no longer predicting a spike in reporting on Security Mobilization. Our updated models are now predicting a slightly smaller increase in reporting on Legal Actions.
Serbia
For Serbia, our data includes coverage through the end of February 2024. Since the data was last updated through November, we saw increases in reporting on:
Corruption in December: The Public Prosecutor’s Office for Organized Crime initiated an investigation against eight persons for their alleged involvement in a conspiracy to commit money laundering. The Higher Public Prosecutor’s Office in Novi Sad and Belgrade authorized the arrest of individuals implicated in multi-million-dollar financial frauds and held hearings for individuals arrested amid protests against election misconduct, pointing to the political dimensions of these crimes. Joint actions by Serbian police and specialized anti-corruption departments resulted in the disruption of a nearly $400 million money laundering operation. Furthermore, the national judiciary confirmed a bribery sentence for a former director, while election irregularities and significant financial mismanagement within city administrations and state-owned enterprises were exposed.
Protest in December: Students protesting for election transparency were detained following a blockade in Belgrade. Concurrently, opposition politicians, including those on hunger strike protesting against electoral fraud, were taken into custody. The arrests extended to journalists covering the protests. Additionally, individuals accused of rioting during the protests were detained. Activists demanding access to voter registers outside the Republic Election Commission were also arrested.
Non-lethal Violence in December: Protests erupted in Belgrade, spurred by allegations of electoral fraud, resulting in clashes with the police who used tear gas, leading to several injuries and arrests amidst accusations of government overreach. Concurrently, schools across Belgrade grappled with false bomb threats. The political climate further deteriorated when members of the “Serbia Against Violence” coalition were physically assaulted, signaling an atmosphere of political intimidation, an issue further emphasized by the assault on an election committee member by ruling party activists. Media personnel, too, faced aggression, evidenced by the attack on an N1 television journalist during a live broadcast. Human rights advocates saw an uptick in attacks, without significant condemnation from political figures. In addition, political motivations were suspected behind the arson of agricultural equipment owned by a Democratic Party official.
Censor in January: Instances of direct interference included the expulsion of a Nova.rs reporter from a basketball arena and the barring of an N1 crew from a Kraljevo City Assembly session, highlighting growing restrictions on media access to public events. Moreover, the Complaints Commission of the Press Council identified violations of the Code of Journalists by major Serbian media outlets, hinting at possible state interference.
Corruption in January: A former Minister of Infrastructure was sentenced for abuse of his official position related to highway construction contracts. Economic journalists and a politician pointed out potential vulnerabilities to corruption in a large government project. Further instances included the arrest of a former mobile operator employee for embezzlement, a local government official for issuing false invoices resulting in state budget loss, and the detention of eight individuals for organized financial crimes such as money laundering and tax evasion. Corruption within law enforcement was highlighted by the arrest of a man attempting to bribe a police officer. Additionally, issues concerning electoral campaign finance were raised in relation to a political party’s call center. Other incidents involved the embezzlement of public company resources and high-level judiciary corruption, where a court president faced indictment for accepting bribes concerning parole decisions.
Legal Action in January: The trial of the Belivuk-Miljkoviƒá clan marked a significant effort to combat organized crime, focusing on allegations of murders, kidnappings, and other serious offenses. An appeal from a young law student involved in protests was rejected, emphasizing the state’s stance on civil unrest. The indictment of Zeljko Badza for war crimes during 1991, including actions that affected civilians, underscored the ongoing reckoning with Serbia’s past. Charges against a military commander for abusing his position highlighted issues within the armed forces, while indictments against two Russians for narcotics trafficking showed the international collaboration in combatting crime. The legal system also addressed the societal impact of gun violence through the trial of a minor’s parents after a school shooting. Legal scrutiny extended to political practices with actions against the Serbian Progressive Party’s call center over alleged electoral fraud and the treatment of a whistleblower at a prison.
Defamation in February: A case between the president of the Serbian Radical Party and a journalist progressed. Similarly, an editor for RTS pursued a lawsuit against the singer Aleksandar Vuksanović, which resulted in Vuksanović being ordered to pay 150,000 dinars for defamation.
Legal Action in February: The acquittal of four former State Security Service officers in the assassination case of journalist Slavko ƒÜuruvija raised alarms about media freedom and the state of the rule of law. Simultaneously, the acquittal of a police officer accused of leaking information about a presidential godfather’s involvement in a traffic collision highlighted challenges related to transparency and integrity within the police force. The initiation of an investigation into the alleged labor exploitation of Indian workers at the Linglong factory’s construction site, as spurred by a complaint from prominent NGO ASTRA, brought the issue of migrant worker rights to the forefront. Furthermore, the continued trial of Veljko Belivuk’s group for severe crimes, including murders, underscored the ongoing battle against organized crime. Other domestic matters, such as the internal investigation of alleged police brutality towards LGBT individuals and actions against police for raiding a Roma settlement, emphasized serious concerns regarding police conduct and the safeguarding of minority rights.
Raid in February: A raid on the president of the Military Union of Serbia implicated a high-profile union leader in embezzlement allegations. An operation against individuals suspected of espionage emphasized internal security efforts. The Ministry of Culture and Media’s searches related to financial misconduct with European funds pointed to corruption issues within governmental institutions. The police treatment of the LGBT community in Belgrade raised serious concerns about ethnic and minority rights abuses and systemic discrimination.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Turkey
For Turkey, our data includes coverage through the end of February 2024. Since the data was last updated through November 2023, we saw increases in reporting on:
Purge in December: The Council of Judges and Prosecutors (HSK) implemented a substantial overhaul by replacing 506 judges and prosecutors. The Interior Minister announced the suspension of 445 active police members for alleged connections with unspecified groups, indicating a significant shake-up within the security forces. The political landscape experienced tumult as the Good Party saw a wave of high-profile resignations, including from two MPs. The Istanbul Governor fired the Security Director for controversial actions. Additionally, political ambitions led to the resignation of the Deputy Minister of Family and Social Services, who sought to become a mayoral candidate.
Security Mobilization in February: In a series of coordinated actions, Turkish security forces launched widespread raids across 73 districts in major cities such as Istanbul, Izmir, and Ankara, focusing on unlicensed firearm possession and resulting in the seizure of 710 pistols. Concurrently, operations named “Operation KAFES-41” and “Operation KAFES-42” made significant strides against organized crime groups, leading to numerous arrests, including the capture of individuals sought on red bulletins. Efforts to clamp down on financial crimes saw actions across 56 districts, targeting networks involved in schemes threatening economic stability. While aiming to curb illegal migration, a notable collaboration between Turkish and Greek coast guards was established, conducting joint patrols in the Aegean Sea and Meric river. Further, a substantial crackdown on narcotics trafficking led to the arrest of 42 suspects linked to an armed crime group dubbed “Turk Escobar” in Istanbul. Counter-terrorism efforts resulted in the arrest of 34 members of a foreign terrorist organization, with coordination from Interpol, showcasing a robust response to international terrorism threats. Enhanced security measures were implemented around Istanbul Courthouse following a terrorist infiltration attempt.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Ukraine
For Ukraine, our data includes coverage through the end of February 2024. Since the data was last updated through November, we saw increases in reporting on:
Lethal Violence in December: The deadliest attack occurred on December 29, when a nationwide missile attack by Russia killed 39 people across several regions, including Kyiv and Odesa. Following this, various attacks highlighted the continuous danger in the region: two civilians were killed on December 30 in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts; air defense forces successfully downed numerous Russian drones on December 27, amidst damage in the Odesa region; the capital’s death toll escalated to 23 due to a missile strike on the same day; Russian heavy artillery targeted Nikopol on December 21, resulting in two deaths; Donetsk and Kherson oblasts witnessed killings and injuries over 24 hours on December 25; a lethal strike on December 5 in Chasiv Yar claimed lives; a drone attack in Stanislav on December 23 killed a resident; and on December 28 and December 6, artillery attacks and successful Ukrainian defensive actions caused further casualties and reported enemy combat losses.
Non-lethal Violence in December: The scope of incidents varied from extensive air attacks, including a notable incident where Ukrainian air defense forces intercepted a majority of 158 missiles and drones, to targeted assaults on critical infrastructure and civilian locales which, notably, did not result in fatalities. Similarly, Ukrainian defenses proved effective against drone attacks and artillery strikes, preventing loss of life even in operations that inflicted injuries and targeted individuals. Furthermore, the conflict saw actions that extended to civilian shipping in the Black Sea, with a civilian cargo vessel hitting a Russian mine, injuring crew members but avoiding fatalities. On the offensive side, Ukraine conducted significant military actions, including a missile strike that completely destroyed a Russian landing ship, and successfully executed a non-lethal hostage rescue operation in Odessa. Despite these aggressive engagements and damage to residential areas, including a missile attack that injured 20 people, the reported events remarkably did not include fatalities, illustrating a month marked by intense but non-fatal conflict dynamics between Ukraine and Russia.
Censor in January: Investigative journalists experienced significant acts of surveillance and intimidation, including threatening home visits and covert surveillance, accompanied by discrediting campaigns, particularly highlighting the surveillance and intimidation of Bihus.Info staff. This situation drew a public denunciation from President Zelensky and calls for investigation by both Ukrainian and international organizations, emphasizing the threat to journalistic freedom in the country. Concurrently, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) took action against foreign espionage by dismantling two online surveillance cameras in Kyiv hacked by Russian services, aiming to spy on Ukrainian air defenses, a move that reflects the challenges of balancing national security concerns with the right to privacy and freedom of information. Additionally, international efforts to monitor nuclear safety were hampered when Russian forces denied International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts access to parts of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Domestically, the revocation of event permission in Modena for the Russian Cultural Association by the municipality, following Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry’s highlighting of the event’s propagandistic nature, illustrates the geopolitical sensitivities and the role of cultural diplomacy. Another incident involved the leak of personal videos of Bihus.Info investigative journalists, aiming to intimidate and discredit them, which President Zelensky condemned as unacceptable, ordering an investigation.
Legal Change in January and February: The reform of the mobilization law, characterized by the integration of digital summons, is pivotal for improving the efficiency and transparency of military mobilization amid the conflict with Russia. The introduction of a bill allowing multiple citizenships for Ukrainians abroad, excluding citizens of aggressor states, aims to foster stronger ties with the global Ukrainian diaspora. Efforts to restructure the Economic Security Bureau, in line with IMF requirements, and amendments aimed at bolstering the safety and security of Ukraine’s energy supply. Furthermore, the legalization of medical cannabis, adjustments to minimum wage policies, and the implementation of new liquidity requirements for banks reflect a push towards aligning with global standards.
Lethal Violence in January: Various regions witnessed mass missile attacks by Russia, notably on the 23rd and the 2nd, resulting in the deaths and injuries of numerous individuals, including children. These assaults, coupled with drone and missile strikes on civilian areas early in the month and comprehensive attacks employing missiles and drones on the 8th, underscored the continuous aerial threat. The ongoing conflict also saw lethal shelling in Kherson Oblast and near front lines in Donetsk Oblast, exacerbating the perilous conditions for those in previously liberated territories and near conflict zones. Counteractions included the downing of Ukrainian military aircraft, signaling the intense military engagements between the forces. Furthermore, ground violence was evident in the targeted killing of civilians by a Russian reconnaissance group. The event of an attack, allegedly by Ukrainian forces on a marketplace in Donetsk, added to the high toll of human life from the hostilities.
Non-lethal Violence in January: On January 2, one of the largest aerial offensives was observed as Russia launched a mass air attack against Ukraine, deploying at least 500 missiles and drones over five days, which resulted in the death of five individuals and injured 130. Additional missile attacks targeted Kharkiv and the Kherson region, causing numerous injuries, including those to a child, and marking a significant toll on civilian life and property. Ukrainian forces responded by striking Russian ammunition warehouses in occupied Crimea, showcasing their strategic capabilities. Meanwhile, Russian strikes not only concentrated on military targets but also hit civilian infrastructure such as a rehabilitation center in Kyiv and residential areas in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the Kherson region, exemplifying the indiscriminate nature of the bombardments.
Security Mobilization in February: Russian forces captured Avdiivka after intensified attacks, marking a significant victory, despite facing substantial losses, which also included a resumption of “human wave” assaults in Krynky, indicating a ruthless tactical approach amidst heavy casualties. Concurrently, Ukraine announced the formation of a UAV force, enhancing its unmanned aerial capabilities in response to increased aerial threats, and strengthened its defense positions in critical regions like Avdiivka and Kupiansk through troop reinforcements and strategic withdrawals aimed at halting Russian advances. These movements were complemented by Russia’s strategic captures aimed at cutting Ukrainian supply lines, underlining the conflict’s escalating intensity. On the international stage, the European Union and individual countries pledged significant military aid to Ukraine, reflecting growing international backing despite the discussion of troop deployments remaining within NATO and Western circles, indicating a shift in international military support dynamics without immediate direct engagement. Reports of Russia’s escalating troop and equipment losses underscored the conflict’s heavy toll, paralleling Ukraine‚Äôs bolstered intelligence and counter-intelligence efforts against espionage and sabotage, revealing an intensification of the conflict with significant implications for regional stability and international relations.
Protest in January and February: Polish farmers escalated their protests by blocking all border crossings and railway shipments between Ukraine and Poland. Ukrainian carriers planned a counter-protest at Dorohusk-Yahodyn border crossing, emphasizing growing tensions.
Lethal Violence in February: A Ukrainian strike on a Russian military training ground in Kherson Oblast resulted in 60 Russian soldiers killed, marking a severe blow to Russian forces. Concurrently, civilian casualties emerged from Russian drone attacks against Odesa and a missile strike on Kyiv, with the latter causing at least 4 deaths and 38 injuries, underscoring the relentless aerial threats faced by Ukrainian cities. The Ukrainian Air Force successfully downed a Russian A-50 early warning and control aircraft over the Azov Sea, significantly undermining Russia’s military capabilities. Other confrontations included a night attack on Kharkiv with 57 casualties, highlighting the profound impact on urban centers. Ukrainian forces carried out a successful strike in occupied Olenivka in Donetsk Oblast, killing 19 Russian soldiers, and a Russian attack claimed the life of an 82-year-old woman in Veletenske, Kherson Oblast, illustrating the civilian toll. Additional Ukrainian military efforts led to the reported destruction of a large quantity of Russian military assets, while strategic shifts were noted with the withdrawal of Ukrainian units from villages near Avdiivka. Furthermore, the killing of at least seven Ukrainian soldiers upon surrender near Bakhmut by Russian forces was reported, shedding light on the brutal realities of prisoner of war treatment.
Forecasting
Due to the impact of the Russian invasion on Ukraine’s data and the interruption of historical patterns that our models rely on to make predictions, we do not publish forecasts for Ukraine.