(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
Ar1	0.669***	1.413***	0.828***	0.773***
	(0.094)	(0.171)	(0.096)	(0.118)
Ma1	-0.519***	-1.301***	-0.709***	-0.678***
	(0.098)	(0.164)	(0.095)	(0.118)
Ma2	-0.199***	0.232
	(0.031)	(0.274)
Ma3	-0.052	0.384*
	(0.035)	(0.151)
Ar2		-0.457	-0.185***	-0.166***
		(0.292)	(0.027)	(0.029)
Ar3		-0.285+
		(0.167)
Y168		0.087***	0.236***	0.241***
		(0.025)	(0.023)	(0.024)
Y24				0.068**
				(0.024)
Num.Obs.	1413	1245	1389	1245
AIC	12487.6	11012.6	12171.8	10941.9
BIC	12582.2	11120.3	12266.1	11039.3
RMSE	19.83	19.82	19.10	19.30
x	0.301726759630426	0.341283521197647	0.354635535378735	0.375252859429716