Definition

We have a few more questions about medium-range (subseasonal to seasonal) weather forecasts that focus on the next two weeks to 90 days. These forecasts generally encompass longer time frames than forecasts you might see on television or a phone application. For example, a medium-range forecast might predict heavy precipitation or unusually low temperatures 3 – 4 weeks from now.

Awareness

Before reading this information, were you aware that forecasts predicting weather conditions for the next two weeks to 90 days are available?

Frequency of use

[Aware → Yes] How often do you use medium-range weather forecasts (e.g., forecasts predicting conditions 3-4 weeks in advance)?

Primary sources

[Use → Occasionally+] What are your primary sources for obtaining medium-range weather forecasts? Please select all that apply.

Use purpose

[Use → Occasionally+] For what purposes do you use medium-range weather forecasts (e.g., planning outdoor activities, agriculture, travel)? [verbatim]

• Travel (50%+)
• Outdoor Activities
• Agriculture and Gardening
• Planning General (e.g., Clothing, Activities)
• Work and Business
• Safety and Preparation
• General Interest

Trust

[Use → Occasionally+] How much trust do you place in the accuracy of medium-range weather forecasts?

Reliability

[Use → Occasionally+] Have you found medium-range weather forecasts to be reliable in your experience?

Informative

[Use → Occasionally+] Do you feel that medium-range forecasts provide enough detail and specificity for your needs?

Non-Use

[Use → Never/Rarely] You indicated that you never or rarely access medium-range weather forecasts (e.g., forecasts predicting conditions 3-4 weeks in advance). Can you tell us why? Please select all that apply.

Example

Here is an example medium-range forecast from the National Weather Service.

Awareness

Have you previously encountered a forecast similar to the one shown above?

Understanding (Subjective)

How confident are you in your ability to understand the information presented in this type of forecast?

Understanding (Objective)

Based on this forecast, would you say that Oklahoma is…

Example

Here is an example medium-range forecast from the National Weather Service.

Future Use

How likely are you to use a forecast like this for making future decisions?

Non-Use

[Use → Never/Rarely] You indicated that are unlikely or not very likely to use forecasts like this for making future decisions. Can you tell us why? Please select all that apply.

Use purpose

You indicated that you are not confident in your ability to understand this type of forecast. Can you tell us what aspects of the forecast or graphic are most confusing? [verbatim]

Set Up

The United States has allocated substantial resources to short-range weather forecasts, which predict conditions from the next day up to two weeks, and to long-range climate predictions that span from the upcoming season to the next decade and beyond. Medium-range weather forecasts, which provide predictions for the next two weeks to 90 days, have received comparatively less investment. As a result, medium-range forecasts are less prevalent, accessible, and accurate than short- and long-term forecasts.

Researchers are confident that enhancements in medium-range forecasting will increase the quality of these predictions. Such advancements would not only refine our predictions of deviations from average temperatures and rainfall but would also enable the anticipation of extreme weather events such as flash droughts, periods of excessive precipitation/rain, heatwaves, and cold spells with several weeks’ notice.

No cost

Imagine that government officials are considering a proposal to increase funding for medium-range weather forecasting. The funding would continue for up to 10 years if improvements forecast quality were evident. Would vote you in favor of the proposal if it would not cost you anything?

Cost

Would you vote in favor of the proposal to increase funding for medium-range weather forecasting if it were to increase your taxes by $[cost: $1:100] a year for the next 10 years?

Vote against

Can you explain why you would vote against the proposal to increase funding for medium-range weather forecasting? [verbatim]

Not sure

Can you explain why you are not sure if you would vote in favor of the proposal to increase funding for medium-range weather forecasting? [verbatim]

Use

Imagine that the proposed funding increase for medium-range weather forecasting has been approved, leading to improved quality in forecasts. Would you utilize these enhanced forecasts in your decision-making process?