Abstract

Leaning primarily on Duverger’s Law, which credits minor party votes as wasted momentum, current research on institutional obstacles to minor party voting largely overlooks the influence of constituency size. This research reexamines the electoral hindrances that minor parties face when competing against the two dominant political parties. Specifically, I hypothesize there is a negative relationship between constituency size and minor party vote share. This thesis adopts an institutional approach to explain the success of minor parties in constituencies of varying size. In the empirical models, I will control for minor party organizational strength, state ballot access laws and whether states allow fusion practices, which permit candidates to run under both a minor and a major political party label. The intent is to isolate the effects of constituency size. Using Ordinary Least Squares Regression and archival election data from the Clerk of the House of Representatives and the Secretary of State offices from each of the fifty states, this research finds evidence that smaller constituencies improve minor party candidate success. The findings suggest smaller constituencies can neutralize other institutional barriers to electoral prowess put in place by the two-party duopoly or Democratic and Republican Party dominance.

Hypothesis

H1: A larger constituency size predicts less minor party voting.

Model

\(Minor Party Voting = \beta_{0} + \beta_{1}Constituency Size + \beta_{2}Fusion + \beta_{3}Ballot Access+ \beta_{4}Organizational Stregnth +\epsilon\)

Independent variable (X): Constituency Size

Dependent variable (Y): Minor Party Vote Share (minor party voting)

Variables

Variable Name Description
popsize The main independent variable. Used to measure constituency size. Uses Census data from 2008-2022 (2000,2010,& 2020)
percent_nonmajor_voting The main dependent variable. It is the number of nonmajor party voting in relation to the total votes for a given election (as percent of the total election votes).
fusion Represents electoral fusion. It is a three-way coded variable. States coded with a “1” consist of full fusion voting (New York and Connecticut). The three states that limit fusion to presidential candidates (Vermont, Oregon, and California) are coded as a “0.5”. Lastly, the two states that limit fusion to judicial elections (Maryland and Pennsylvania) are coded with a “0.25”
ballotaccess_over1percsignature Simplifies the ballot access data into a dummy variable. This variable looks at the “ballotaccessAverage” variable, and when a state average is over 1 percent, it is coded with a “1”.
organizational_strength_money calculates the proportion of funds raised by libertarian, Green, and “Other” candidates (such as niche third- party candidates, write-ins, and no party).
orgstrength_totalWEB This is an index variable that measures online organizational strength. Is based on give considerations that are then summed together (my final paper will have a more detailed codebook)

Descriptive Statistics

Minor Party Vote Share Distributions

Regression Analysis

Original Models Without Fixed Effects

Note the p-values for the significance stars (+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001) Stargazer uses assigns different values to the significance stars.

 All Races 2016-2022  Excluding Governor 2008-2022  All Races 2008-2022
(Intercept) 35.566*** 23.504*** 33.464***
(7.885) (6.359) (5.652)
log(popsize) −2.022*** −1.278** −1.866***
(0.562) (0.424) (0.377)
fusion 5.339* 5.440* 5.289**
(2.328) (2.272) (1.924)
ballotaccess_over1percsignature −1.514 −1.507 −2.060*
(1.237) (1.059) (0.946)
orgstrength_totalWEB −0.023
(0.209)
organizational_strength_money 38.481***
(3.098)
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Fixed Effects

Fixed Effects By State

note: Model-summary has different p-value stars than Stargazer. Model-summary is showing one star while Stargazer gives me two. Model summary (+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001) Stargazer (p<0.1; p<0.05; p<0.01)

 All Races 2016-2022  Excluding Governor 2008-2022  All Races 2008-2022
(Intercept) −246.393 −179.286+ −192.224*
(177.092) (101.641) (93.641)
log(popsize) 19.086 13.688+ 15.210*
(13.114) (7.564) (6.961)
fusion −8.095 −3.565 −4.091
(38.898) (7.279) (6.138)
ballotaccess_over1percsignature −2.693 −1.500 −0.201
(2.841) (1.931) (1.672)
orgstrength_totalWEB 0.045
(0.318)
factor(state)AL −43.824+ −28.865+ −40.569**
(25.699) (15.103) (13.818)
factor(state)AR −29.236 −14.276 −27.183*
(19.104) (12.411) (11.009)
factor(state)AZ −49.330+ −31.081+ −43.361**
(29.778) (17.481) (15.963)
factor(state)CA −77.772 −53.456+ −66.352*
(54.757) (30.494) (28.009)
factor(state)CO −46.773+ −27.818+ −35.341*
(27.004) (15.749) (14.389)
factor(state)CT −29.280 −19.250 −28.586*
(43.363) (14.619) (13.084)
factor(state)DE −12.483* −5.472 −14.007***
(5.492) (3.659) (3.396)
factor(state)FL −73.744+ −45.102+ −57.627*
(43.936) (25.609) (23.453)
factor(state)GA −57.333 −36.389+ −49.826**
(35.226) (20.211) (18.600)
factor(state)HI −21.909* −12.040+ −19.712***
(9.898) (6.601) (5.891)
factor(state)IA −35.652+ −22.229+ −31.799**
(19.984) (12.121) (10.971)
factor(state)ID −17.338 −10.547 −18.084**
(12.407) (7.469) (6.748)
factor(state)IL −61.780 −40.953+ −52.006*
(37.980) (22.480) (20.576)
factor(state)IN −45.280 −29.211+ −41.162**
(29.500) (17.425) (15.869)
factor(state)IO −37.849+ −24.079+ −33.658**
(20.258) (13.132) (11.924)
factor(state)KS −32.811+ −15.574 −25.090*
(18.829) (11.487) (10.448)
factor(state)KY −44.711+ −28.741* −39.059**
(24.457) (14.532) (13.413)
factor(state)LA −44.630+ −28.069+ −38.379**
(25.161) (14.934) (13.806)
factor(state)MA −52.295+ −34.866* −44.039**
(29.811) (17.631) (16.069)
factor(state)MD −47.214 −33.011* −39.696**
(29.240) (16.649) (15.203)
factor(state)ME 0.333 −1.603 0.152
(9.618) (6.501) (5.761)
factor(state)MI −59.571+ −38.359+ −50.233**
(34.849) (20.676) (18.868)
factor(state)MN −45.595+ −38.236* −36.203*
(27.384) (16.104) (14.698)
factor(state)MO −49.028+ −30.411+ −41.693**
(28.249) (16.987) (15.414)
factor(state)MS −36.513+ −22.995+ −32.717**
(20.486) (11.930) (11.132)
factor(state)MT −13.072* −5.432 −14.889***
(6.522) (4.314) (3.982)
factor(state)NC −58.436+ −36.768+ −49.206**
(34.850) (20.223) (18.430)
factor(state)ND 2.435 7.848* −1.804
(3.981) (3.103) (2.929)
factor(state)NE −24.702+ −13.834 −23.789**
(13.641) (8.547) (7.675)
factor(state)NH −16.394+ −11.184+ −17.734**
(9.253) (6.365) (5.461)
factor(state)NJ −57.154+ −37.477+ −48.852**
(33.767) (19.790) (18.234)
factor(state)NM −23.846 −13.882 −25.871**
(14.967) (9.102) (8.255)
factor(state)NV −32.718+ −17.769 −27.943**
(18.639) (11.408) (10.312)
factor(state)NY −55.680 −32.779 −45.934+
(56.685) (26.164) (23.878)
factor(state)OH −62.908+ −40.784+ −52.556**
(36.748) (21.819) (19.927)
factor(state)OK −36.395 −22.915+ −34.499**
(22.634) (13.388) (12.220)
factor(state)OR −30.862 −21.229 −31.147*
(29.382) (13.586) (12.386)
factor(state)PA −62.095 −41.920+ −54.181**
(38.670) (22.467) (20.537)
factor(state)RI −15.374* −10.469+ −9.863*
(7.322) (5.360) (4.630)
factor(state)SC −47.027+ −27.546+ −38.831**
(25.608) (15.065) (13.759)
factor(state)SD −8.550+ −0.631 −9.231**
(4.662) (3.402) (3.157)
factor(state)TN −51.612+ −31.466+ −42.921**
(29.448) (17.336) (15.863)
factor(state)TX −78.967+ −51.361+ −64.877*
(47.760) (27.532) (25.330)
factor(state)UT −24.435 −13.596 −24.523*
(19.063) (11.590) (10.302)
factor(state)VA −56.839+ −37.021+ −48.194**
(32.636) (19.008) (17.520)
factor(state)VT 6.883 8.134* 3.531
(20.068) (3.812) (3.357)
factor(state)WA −54.890+ −36.240* −47.062**
(30.324) (17.998) (16.361)
factor(state)WI −49.801+ −32.305+ −43.068**
(27.639) (16.621) (15.127)
factor(state)WV −23.531+ −15.180+ −23.116**
(13.135) (8.404) (7.547)
factor(state)WY 1.892 5.194 −2.188
(5.354) (3.849) (3.615)
organizational_strength_money 38.067***
(3.467)
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Fixed Effects Vermont and Maine

Including fixed effects for the two states with existing Independent Senators. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine.

 All Races 2016-2022  Excluding Governor 2008-2022  All Races 2008-2022
(Intercept) 29.009*** 20.562** 24.909***
(7.023) (6.218) (4.987)
log(popsize) −1.610** −1.072** −1.338***
(0.495) (0.413) (0.331)
fusion 5.132* 5.174* 5.114**
(2.024) (2.217) (1.662)
ballotaccess_over1percsignature −0.849 −1.150 −1.236
(0.999) (0.974) (0.775)
orgstrength_totalWEB −0.040
(0.166)
organizational_strength_money 17.682***
(3.667)
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001