Setting Your Fear Altitude: Navigating Flight Anxiety with the Judgment Equation

Judgement Equation

• you ever experienced plane shake while you are flying?
• What is your fear setting?
• Do you think you gonna die soon?
• But statistical records , fatal crash is less than one in ten millions.
• With judgement equation , take deep breah and calculate this .

Reference “The Ten Equations that Rule the World bu David Sumpter”

. formula is P(CRASH∣SHAKE)= P(SHAKE∣CRASH)×P(CRASH)+P(SHAKE∣¬CRASH)×P(¬CRASH) P(SHAKE∣CRASH)×P(CRASH)

options(scipen = 999) #not to show scientific number
P_CRASH <- 1/10000000 #st
P_SHAKE_given_CRASH <- 1
P_SHAKE_given_not_CRASH <- 1/100 # scariest flight you have been on, out of 100 similar trips 

# Calculate P(not CRASH)
P_not_CRASH <- 1 - P_CRASH

# Calculate P(CRASH|SHAKE) using Bayes' theorem
P_CRASH_given_SHAKE <- P_SHAKE_given_CRASH * P_CRASH / (P_SHAKE_given_CRASH * P_CRASH + P_SHAKE_given_not_CRASH * P_not_CRASH)

# Print the result
print(P_CRASH_given_SHAKE)

## [1] 0.000009999901

The chance of your going to die is 0.000009

There is 99.99999 % to land safely.