Summary
- China FAI growth stayed at 4.2% in first two month, pulled by the high growth in industrial sectors. FAI in agriculture, industry and service in Jan-Feb was -5.7%, 11.9% and 1.2%.
- Real estate investment remained the biggest drag for FAI, plunging -9.0% yoy. Liquidity and solvency conditions had not been much improved as evident in the case of VANKE, one of biggest developer who once was considered the top student in the industry but faced difficulty in dollar bond payment the in recent weeks. Unless we see a significant upswing in house sales, cash-strapped developers are more likely to prioritize reducing liabilities over expanding their BS.
- Noteworthy is the double-digits growth in utility sector. Electric Power, Heat power, Gas and Water Production and Supply enjoyed 25.5% in Jan-Feb, suggesting the livelihood engineering projects had been already underway as stipulated in issuance of 1 trillion special bonds in last year. Transportation is another sector that benefits from the national bonds. Railway transport investment was up 25.9% while road investment was up 8.3%
- Infrastructure-wise, the traditional infrastructure investment has lost its momentum as the trend showed that the small circle that started in 2022 had been flattened in recent months. On the other hand, infrastructure investment in electricity continued its momentum, gaining 19.5% in first two months.
- In terms of manufacturing, we saw that investment growth in automobile and manufacture of electric equipment and machinery had slowed down in Jan-Feb, which is in line with the oversupply in renewables sectors.
China FAI
tb[['total']]| Date | YTD YoY | YoY | 12MMA YoY | FAI YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Feb-24 | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 60,057 |
| Primary Industry | Feb-24 | -5.7% | -5.7% | -0.5% | 1,467 |
| Secondary Industry | Feb-24 | 11.9% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 22,217 |
| Tertiary Industry | Feb-24 | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 36,373 |
Total
fig$China$faiAgriculture
fig$`Primary Industry`$faiIndustry
fig$`Secondary Industry`$faiService
fig$`Tertiary Industry`$faiFAI : Manufacturing
tb[['mfg']]| Date | Ytd YoY | YoY | 12MMA YoY | FAI YTD | CU | ZN | AL | SS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | Feb-24 | 9.4% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 18,061 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Manufacturing: Processing of Food from Agricultural Products | Feb-24 | 13.6% | 13.6% | 7.8% | 915 | low | low | low | low |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of Foods | Feb-24 | 22.5% | 22.5% | 13.4% | 488 | low | low | low | mid |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of Liquor, Beverage and Refined Tea | Feb-24 | 39.3% | 39.3% | 9.7% | 450 | low | low | low | mid |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of Tobacco | Feb-24 | -14.0% | -14.0% | 36.4% | 16 | low | low | low | low |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of Textile | Feb-24 | 15.0% | 15.0% | 1.4% | 548 | low | low | low | low |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of Textile Apparel | Feb-24 | 16.6% | 16.6% | -1.0% | 312 | low | low | low | low |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of Leather, Furs, Down and Related Products and Footware | Feb-24 | -2.4% | -2.4% | -3.6% | 129 | low | low | low | low |
| Manufacturing: Processing of Timbers, Manufacture of Wood, Bamboo, Rattan, Palm and Straw Products | Feb-24 | -2.2% | -2.2% | 1.6% | 308 | low | low | low | low |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of Furniture | Feb-24 | -1.4% | -1.4% | -8.0% | 231 | low | mid | hig | hig |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of Paper and Paper Products | Feb-24 | 22.5% | 22.5% | 10.2% | 325 | low | low | low | low |
| Manufacturing: Printing, Reproduction of Recording Media | Feb-24 | 13.7% | 13.7% | 1.1% | 139 | low | low | low | low |
| Manufacturing: Cultural, Educational, Arts and Sports Goods | Feb-24 | -2.5% | -2.5% | -1.1% | 192 | low | low | low | low |
| Manufacturing: Processing of Petroleum, Coking and Processing of Nuclear Fuel | Feb-24 | -25.3% | -25.3% | -17.1% | 130 | low | low | low | hig |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of Raw Chemical Materials and Chemical Products | Feb-24 | 14.0% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 1,621 | low | low | low | hig |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of Medicines | Feb-24 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 669 | low | mid | mid | low |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of Chemical Fibres | Feb-24 | 8.0% | 8.0% | -8.9% | 143 | low | low | low | low |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of Rubber and Plastic Products | Feb-24 | 10.3% | 10.3% | 4.7% | 660 | low | mid | low | low |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of Non-metallic Mineral Products | Feb-24 | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 1,458 | low | low | low | mid |
| Manufacturing: Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals | Feb-24 | 13.5% | 13.5% | 1.4% | 474 | mid | mid | low | mid |
| Manufacturing: Smelting and Pressing of Non-ferrous Metals | Feb-24 | 23.2% | 23.2% | 12.9% | 444 | mid | mid | low | mid |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of Metal Products | Feb-24 | 9.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 954 | mid | mid | mid | mid |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of General Purpose Machinery | Feb-24 | 11.3% | 11.3% | 4.9% | 1,300 | mid | mid | mid | mid |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of Special Purpose Machinery | Feb-24 | 12.0% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 1,594 | mid | mid | mid | hig |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of Automobile | Feb-24 | 7.0% | 7.0% | 18.3% | 975 | hig | hig | hig | hig |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of Railway,Ship,Aerospace and Other Transport Equipment | Feb-24 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 5.2% | 277 | low | mid | hig | mid |
| Manufacturing: Electric Equipment and Machinery Manufacturing | Feb-24 | 24.1% | 24.1% | 31.5% | 2,309 | hig | mid | hig | mid |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of Computers, Communication Devices and Other Electronics | Feb-24 | 14.8% | 14.8% | 9.2% | 2,696 | mid | low | mid | low |
| Manufacturing: Manufacture of Instruments and Meters | Feb-24 | -3.9% | -3.9% | 11.5% | 396 | low | low | low | low |
| Manufacturing: Discarded Resources and Waste Materials Recovery and Processing | Feb-24 | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 251 | low | low | low | low |
| Manufacturing: Repairing of Metalware, Machinery and Equipment | Feb-24 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 72.7% | 27 | low | mid | mid | mid |
Manufacturing
fig$Manufacturing$faiManufacturing Manufacture of Automobile
fig$`Manufacturing Manufacture of Automobile`$faiManufacturing Electric Equipment and Machinery Manufacturing
fig$`Manufacturing Electric Equipment and Machinery Manufacturing`$faiManufacturing Manufacture of Computers, Communication Devices and Other Electronics
fig$`Manufacturing Manufacture of Computers, Communication Devices and Other Electronics`$faiFAI : Non-Manufacturing
tb[['non-mfg']]| Date | Ytd YoY | YoY | 12MMA YoY | FAI YTD | CU | ZN | AL | SS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mining | Feb-24 | 14.4% | 14.4% | 2.6% | 815 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Mining and Washing of Coal | Feb-24 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 11.2% | 256 | low | low | low | low |
| Extraction of Petroleum and Natural Gas | Feb-24 | 15.2% | 15.2% | 14.5% | 253 | low | low | low | low |
| Mining and Dressing of Ferrous Metal Ores | Feb-24 | 39.6% | 39.6% | -5.3% | 78 | low | low | low | low |
| Mining and Dressing of Non-ferrous Metal Ores | Feb-24 | 45.3% | 45.3% | 43.7% | 89 | low | low | low | low |
| Mining and Dressing of Non-metal Minerals | Feb-24 | 24.5% | 24.5% | 16.7% | 296 | low | low | low | low |
| Electric Power, Heat power, Gas and Water Production and Supply | Feb-24 | 25.3% | 25.3% | 23.0% | 3,314 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Production and Supply of Electric Power and Heat Power | Feb-24 | 32.7% | 32.7% | 27.6% | 2,409 | hig | low | low | low |
| Production and Supply of Gas | Feb-24 | 7.3% | 7.3% | 16.3% | 195 | low | low | low | low |
| Production and Supply of Water | Feb-24 | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 710 | low | low | low | low |
| Construction | Feb-24 | 19.9% | 19.9% | 21.2% | 64 | hig | hig | hig | mid |
| Transport, Storage and Post | Feb-24 | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 5,813 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Railway Transport | Feb-24 | 27.0% | 27.0% | 25.9% | 814 | low | mid | mid | low |
| Road Transport | Feb-24 | 8.3% | 8.3% | -0.5% | 3,972 | low | mid | low | low |
| Water Transport | Feb-24 | 8.0% | 8.0% | 18.4% | 239 | low | low | low | low |
| Air Transportation Industry | Feb-24 | 18.9% | 18.9% | 4.3% | 202 | low | low | hig | low |
| Pipeline Transport | Feb-24 | -15.5% | -15.5% | 1.9% | 19 | low | mid | low | mid |
| Storage | Feb-24 | 10.5% | 10.5% | 27.5% | 449 | mid | low | low | low |
| Hotel and Catering Services | Feb-24 | 19.0% | 19.0% | 9.0% | 475 | mid | irrv | irrv | irrv |
| Completed Investment in Real Estate Development | Feb-24 | -9.0% | -9.0% | -10.0% | 12,450 | hig | hig | hig | hig |
| Management of Water Conservancy, Environment and Public Facilities | Feb-24 | 0.4% | 0.4% | -0.5% | 6,270 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Environment Protection and Management | Feb-24 | -5.2% | -5.2% | -3.5% | 425 | irrv | irrv | low | low |
| Management of Public Facilities | Feb-24 | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.6% | 4,846 | irrv | irrv | irrv | irrv |
| Household Services, Maintainance and Other Services | Feb-24 | -4.2% | -4.2% | 13.9% | 151 | low | irrv | low | irrv |
| Infrastructure Investment | Feb-24 | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 15,396 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Infrastructure Investment (Excl. Electricity) | Feb-24 | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 12,007 | mid | mid | mid | low |
| Infrastructure Investment (Electricity) | Feb-24 | 19.5% | 19.5% | 16.9% | 3,388 | hig | mid | hig | low |
Manufacturing
fig$Manufacturing$faiReal Estate Development
fig$`Completed Investment in Real Estate Development`$faiInfrastructure Investment (Excl. Electricity)
fig$`Infrastructure Investment (Excl. Electricity)`$faiInfrastructure Investment (Electricity)
fig$`Infrastructure Investment (Electricity)`$faiRailway Transport
fig$`Railway Transport`$faiRoad Transport
fig$`Road Transport`$fai