Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for: Azerbaijan, El Salvador, Honduras, Kyrgyzstan, Liberia, Malawi, South Africa. We are predicting major events in El Salvador.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Civic Space Early Warning System

New Shock Detection Algorithm and Summarization Method

Since the last update for these countries, we have implemented a new shock detection algorithm to identify major events. This new algorithm integrates statistical and machine learning methods to identify major jumps in reporting on each event. This new approach is better able to detect events happening on the ground from disturbances in the volume of reporting. We have also integrated a new method of summarizing major events detected in our data since the last update. This new method uses GPT4 to summarize all articles from our database reporting on an event in months when we detect a shock. However, we use human supervision to ensure these AI summaries are accurate.

Azerbaijan

For Azerbaijan, our data includes coverage through January 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we did not detect any major events.

Forecasting

Our updated models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

El Salvador

For El Salvador, our data includes coverage through the end of January 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of October 2023, we did not detect any major events.

Forecasting

In our August report, our standard models predicted a spike in Lethal Violence in Q1 2024. However, our December report was predicting a much smaller increase. We did not see a jump in reporting on Lethal Violence in January, and our updated models are no longer predicting a shock to Lethal Violence in Q1.

However, our updated standard models are now predicting spikes for Lethal Violence a few months later in Q2 and Q3 of 2024.

Honduras

For Honduras, our data includes coverage through the end of January 2024. Since the data was last updated through October 2023, we saw increases in reporting on:

• Defamation in November: Deputies from the Freedom and Refoundation Party and the National Party were scheduled for an oral and public trial following the failure to reach an agreement during a conciliation hearing at the Supreme Court of Justice.
• Legal Action in November: In November 2023, the Public Prosecutor’s Office’s decided to strip a former MP of properties acquired through drug trafficking offenses. Concurrently, the state formally prosecuted a former Finance Minister for her involvement in the mobile hospital scandal and charged the National Party President for crimes against President Xiomara Castro. A pre-trial detention order for former ministers and deputy ministers signaled a crackdown on corruption within the prior administration. The judicial sphere saw increased activity with the Supreme Court of Justice appointing Walter Miranda Sabio to the Pandora II case aiming at higher accountability for former presidents Porfirio Lobo Sosa and Juan Orlando Hernández. Moreover, individuals linked to the Sinaloa cartel and the seizure of properties were arrested as a stance against international drug trafficking networks. The legal system also revisited charges of discrimination against Pastor Roy Santos, reflecting ongoing concerns over ethnic and cultural rights. Internal challenges within the Public Prosecutor’s Office, particularly the upheaval in the Special Prosecutor for Transparency and Fighting Public Corruption, highlighted internal efforts to purge corruption.
• Corruption in December: The arrest and indictment of former MPs for embezzling millions marked a notable misuse of public funds within the legislative system. Similarly, the indictment of a prosecutor for money laundering from the Central Bank of Honduras and the arrest of a judicial officer underscored corruption within the judiciary. The capture of the former president for corruption during his tenure further indicated the extent of corrupt practices. The international dimension of these corrupt activities was illustrated by the case of an American businessman accused of bribing a Honduran official for contracts. Additionally, corruption within Honduras’ correctional system was exposed through charges against former officials of the National Penitentiary Institute, and the arrest of anti-narcotics agents for misappropriation of public funds revealed similar issues within law enforcement. The acquittal of Juan Ramón Matta Waldurraga on money laundering charges, despite considerable public scrutiny, raised concerns regarding the judicial system’s effectiveness.
• Purge/Replace in January: The Minister of Finance resigned, a new executive director of the Honduran Institute of Social Security (IHSS) and Secretaries of Health, Finance, and Infrastructure were appointed. Moreover, an expansive reshuffle within the National Police, introducing 28 new directors on January 20, aimed at bolstering community policing and operational effectiveness. The Undersecretary of the Secretary of Human Rights resigned amid accusations of mistreatment. Additionally, a Congresswoman and a Mayor from the Liberal Party were expelled, and the director of the San Felipe Hospital was dismissed following protests.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Kyrgyzstan

For Kyrgyzstan, our data includes coverage through the end of January 2023. Since the data was last updated through October, we saw increases in reporting on:

• Defamation in December: Journalist Leila Saralaeva filed a defamation lawsuit against former JC MP Tursunbay Bakir Uulu.
• Raid in December: Authorities undertook a series of coordinated raids and operations. Actions were taken against members of Hizb Ut-Tahrir for alleged religious extremism. Law enforcement officials targeted prostitution in Osh city and the Pervomaiskiy District, aiming to curb human trafficking and sexual exploitation. Efforts to improve public health included the inspection of unlicensed private medical and dental clinics in Bishkek. Additionally, municipal checks on environmental violations and unauthorized construction were conducted to ensure adherence to environmental standards and building safety regulations. Operations to prevent cattle theft and ensure meat product sanitation were also conducted.
• Legal Action in January: The Osh City Court dismissed charges against a blogger and the Constitutional Court made a major ruling regarding censorship laws. A former mercenary fighting with Russian forces in Ukraine received a prison sentence, and Parliament approved criminal prosecution against an MP on corruption charges. An investigation and legal proceedings over prison environments were launched following the death of a prisoner. There was crackdown on media outlets and journalists, as seen in the investigation against 24.kg and mass searches related to the Ayt Ayt Dese and Temirov Live projects.

Forecasting

In our last report, our standard models predicted a shock to Legal Actions in Q2 2024. Consistent with this forecast, we saw a shock to Legal Action a few months early in January. Our updated models are no longer predicting a shock to Legal Actions in Q2.

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Liberia

For Liberia, our data includes coverage through the end of January 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of October 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Corruption in December: Financial mismanagement allegations surfaced against the President of the Liberia Football Association, concerning the underreporting of the new headquarters’ cost. In Bong County, electoral integrity was questioned following a petition that led to accusations of fraudulent activities during a recount process. Additionally, within the Liberia Anti-Corruption Commission, as commissioners did not comply with asset declaration requirements. The Executive Protection Service faced scrutiny over the alleged disappearance of significant funds. International attention was drawn to the situation through sanctions under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act against high-profile officials for corruption and human rights abuses. Allegations emerged against several government officials, including the Monrovia City Mayor.
• Legal Action in December: Former Chief Justice Gloria Musu Scott and three family members were convicted of murder, criminal conspiracy, and giving false information to law enforcement, concluding a five-month trial. Meanwhile, the United States imposed sanctions on three Liberian officials, including Finance Minister Samuel Tweah and two senators, for substantial corruption issues related to legislative processes and public funding, and also designated Monrovia City Mayor Jefferson Koijee and two others for human rights abuses. In a separate judicial decision, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Julius Kanubah’s National Campaign Management Team, correcting an erroneous court order related to Press Union activities. The Liberian Senate raised issues regarding the non-declaration of assets by Liberia Anti-Corruption Commission (LACC) commissioners. Police launched an investigation into the death of a political party officer, and President George Weah issued an executive pardon for the former National Defense Minister. Moreover, High Power Exploration (HPX) Group’s substantial payment to the Liberian government and the subsequent calls for investigation reflect the ongoing concerns over government integrity and financial management.
• Non-lethal Violence in December: The home of a Senator was vandalized, signaling a notable event of politically motivated violence. Similarly, citizens protested at the home of a Judge over the detention of several individuals. A high school presidential candidate was hospitalized after physical assault by students.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Malawi

For Malawi, our data includes coverage through the end of January 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of October 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Defamation Cases in November: The High Court in Blantyre ruled in favor of a former Agriculture Minister in a defamation case against Blantyre Newspapers Limited. The ex-President’s former bodyguard was charged with defamation of character. Four individuals faced unchanged bail conditions in the Chief Resident Magistrate’s court in Blantyre for cyberbullying and defamation of character.
• Protest in November: Human rights activists led significant protests across various cities, including Mangochi, Zomba, Blantyre, Mzuzu, and Karonga, against the government’s decision to devalue the kwacha by 44 percent. Concurrently, hundreds in Blantyre demonstrated in solidarity with Palestinians. EMobile money agents for Telkom Networks Malawi and Airtel threatened a strike for higher commissions, while in Lilongwe, motorbike operators protested against the confiscation of their bikes by the road traffic department. Additionally, students at the Malawi University of Business and Applied Sciences protested against an increase in examination fees.
• Non-lethal Violence in December: A significant communal clash occurred in Thyolo where a mob demolished 12 houses and destroyed property in Maida village over the death of a community member. A Malawian pastor and politician was kidnapped and released nearly two weeks later, while another political figure was robbed in Blantyre.
• Purge/Replace in January: The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) experienced internal shake-ups with the expulsion of senior officials, including a former vice president, which led to a reorganization of the party’s leadership. The Anti-Corruption Bureau’s director of legal and prosecution was moved to the Ministry of Justice, raising concerns over the handling of high-profile corruption cases. The president of the Economics Association of Malawi resigned to assume a key government financial position. The United Democratic Front (UDF) saw the resignation of its Director of Elections and a vice president. Additionally, the Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi dismissed employees over strike actions, and there were notable transfers within the police force.
• Non-lethal Violence in January: There was an attempted break-ins at Vice President Saulos Chilima’s office and a stoning targeting the President’s convoy in Blantyre. Civil society organizations stormed into the Electricity Supply Corporation offices over persistent power outages, and vandalism of an Escom transformer caused significant blackouts. Health workers were chased away while investigating a measles case, reflecting the clash between health officials and religious communities.

Forecasting

In our last update, our shock models predicted a shock to Purge in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. Consistent with this forecast, we saw a shock to Purge in January.

Our shock models also predicted a spike in reporting on Defamation Cases in Q1 2024. We did not see a jump in reporting on Defamation cases in January. However, we may yet observe a spike in February or March.

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

South Africa

For South Africa, our data includes coverage through the end of January 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of October 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

• Legal Change in December: The National Council of Provinces (NCOP) passed the National Health Insurance (NHI) Bill, setting the stage for the country to pursue universal health coverage. The Constitutional Court adjusted the signature requirement for independent candidates from a 15% quota to 1,000 signatures. Controversially, the advancement of the Expropriation Bill was delayed due to fears of arbitrary land expropriation. Humanitarian concerns influenced the Constitutional Court’s decision to strike down sections of the Immigration Act. Broad hate speech legislation was passed. A permanent Investigating Directorate against Corruption (IDAC) through the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) Amendment Bill was established.

Forcasting

In our last update, our shock models predicted a spike in reporting on Legal Actions in Q4 2023. We did not see a jump in reporting on Legal Actions in November or December.

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.