Data Prep for Modeling

Data Summary: The Variables: Store, and Holiday Flag are Continuous, but Should be Categorical

##      Store        Date            Weekly_Sales      Holiday_Flag    
##  Min.   : 1   Length:6435        Min.   : 209986   Min.   :0.00000  
##  1st Qu.:12   Class :character   1st Qu.: 553350   1st Qu.:0.00000  
##  Median :23   Mode  :character   Median : 960746   Median :0.00000  
##  Mean   :23                      Mean   :1046965   Mean   :0.06993  
##  3rd Qu.:34                      3rd Qu.:1420159   3rd Qu.:0.00000  
##  Max.   :45                      Max.   :3818686   Max.   :1.00000  
##   Temperature       Fuel_Price         CPI         Unemployment   
##  Min.   : -2.06   Min.   :2.472   Min.   :126.1   Min.   : 3.879  
##  1st Qu.: 47.46   1st Qu.:2.933   1st Qu.:131.7   1st Qu.: 6.891  
##  Median : 62.67   Median :3.445   Median :182.6   Median : 7.874  
##  Mean   : 60.66   Mean   :3.359   Mean   :171.6   Mean   : 7.999  
##  3rd Qu.: 74.94   3rd Qu.:3.735   3rd Qu.:212.7   3rd Qu.: 8.622  
##  Max.   :100.14   Max.   :4.468   Max.   :227.2   Max.   :14.313

Data Summary now with Categorical Variables as Factors, and a Random Variable for Splitting the Data

##      Store          Date            Weekly_Sales     Holiday_Flag
##  1      : 143   Length:6435        Min.   : 209986   0:5985      
##  2      : 143   Class :character   1st Qu.: 553350   1: 450      
##  3      : 143   Mode  :character   Median : 960746               
##  4      : 143                      Mean   :1046965               
##  5      : 143                      3rd Qu.:1420159               
##  6      : 143                      Max.   :3818686               
##  (Other):5577                                                    
##   Temperature       Fuel_Price         CPI         Unemployment   
##  Min.   : -2.06   Min.   :2.472   Min.   :126.1   Min.   : 3.879  
##  1st Qu.: 47.46   1st Qu.:2.933   1st Qu.:131.7   1st Qu.: 6.891  
##  Median : 62.67   Median :3.445   Median :182.6   Median : 7.874  
##  Mean   : 60.66   Mean   :3.359   Mean   :171.6   Mean   : 7.999  
##  3rd Qu.: 74.94   3rd Qu.:3.735   3rd Qu.:212.7   3rd Qu.: 8.622  
##  Max.   :100.14   Max.   :4.468   Max.   :227.2   Max.   :14.313  
##                                                                   
##      random         
##  Min.   :0.0001523  
##  1st Qu.:0.2453881  
##  Median :0.4969796  
##  Mean   :0.5029555  
##  3rd Qu.:0.7634041  
##  Max.   :0.9999618  
## 

Linear model to predict sales

## Backward Elimination Method 
## ---------------------------
## 
## Candidate Terms: 
## 
## 1. Store 
## 2. Holiday_Flag 
## 3. Temperature 
## 4. Fuel_Price 
## 5. CPI 
## 6. Unemployment 
## 7. Store:Holiday_Flag 
## 8. Store:Temperature 
## 9. Store:Fuel_Price 
## 10. Store:CPI 
## 11. Store:Unemployment 
## 12. Holiday_Flag:Temperature 
## 13. Holiday_Flag:Fuel_Price 
## 14. Holiday_Flag:CPI 
## 15. Holiday_Flag:Unemployment 
## 16. Temperature:Fuel_Price 
## 17. Temperature:CPI 
## 18. Temperature:Unemployment 
## 19. Fuel_Price:CPI 
## 20. Fuel_Price:Unemployment 
## 21. CPI:Unemployment 
## 
## 
## Step   => 0 
## Model  => Weekly_Sales ~ Store + Holiday_Flag + Temperature + Fuel_Price + CPI + Unemployment + Store:Holiday_Flag + Store:Temperature + Store:Fuel_Price + Store:CPI + Store:Unemployment + Holiday_Flag:Temperature + Holiday_Flag:Fuel_Price + Holiday_Flag:CPI + Holiday_Flag:Unemployment + Temperature:Fuel_Price + Temperature:CPI + Temperature:Unemployment + Fuel_Price:CPI + Fuel_Price:Unemployment + CPI:Unemployment 
## R2     => 0.934 
## 
## Initiating stepwise selection... 
## 
## Step     => 1 
## Removed  => Fuel_Price:Unemployment 
## Model    => Weekly_Sales ~ Store + Holiday_Flag + Temperature + Fuel_Price + CPI + Unemployment + Store:Holiday_Flag + Store:Temperature + Store:Fuel_Price + Store:CPI + Store:Unemployment + Holiday_Flag:Temperature + Holiday_Flag:Fuel_Price + Holiday_Flag:CPI + Holiday_Flag:Unemployment + Temperature:Fuel_Price + Temperature:CPI + Temperature:Unemployment + Fuel_Price:CPI + CPI:Unemployment 
## R2       => 0.93362 
## 
## Step     => 2 
## Removed  => Holiday_Flag:Unemployment 
## Model    => Weekly_Sales ~ Store + Holiday_Flag + Temperature + Fuel_Price + CPI + Unemployment + Store:Holiday_Flag + Store:Temperature + Store:Fuel_Price + Store:CPI + Store:Unemployment + Holiday_Flag:Temperature + Holiday_Flag:Fuel_Price + Holiday_Flag:CPI + Temperature:Fuel_Price + Temperature:CPI + Temperature:Unemployment + Fuel_Price:CPI + CPI:Unemployment 
## R2       => 0.93362 
## 
## Step     => 3 
## Removed  => Unemployment 
## Model    => Weekly_Sales ~ Store + Holiday_Flag + Temperature + Fuel_Price + CPI + Store:Holiday_Flag + Store:Temperature + Store:Fuel_Price + Store:CPI + Store:Unemployment + Holiday_Flag:Temperature + Holiday_Flag:Fuel_Price + Holiday_Flag:CPI + Temperature:Fuel_Price + Temperature:CPI + Temperature:Unemployment + Fuel_Price:CPI + CPI:Unemployment 
## R2       => 0.93362 
## 
## Step     => 4 
## Removed  => CPI:Unemployment 
## Model    => Weekly_Sales ~ Store + Holiday_Flag + Temperature + Fuel_Price + CPI + Store:Holiday_Flag + Store:Temperature + Store:Fuel_Price + Store:CPI + Store:Unemployment + Holiday_Flag:Temperature + Holiday_Flag:Fuel_Price + Holiday_Flag:CPI + Temperature:Fuel_Price + Temperature:CPI + Temperature:Unemployment + Fuel_Price:CPI 
## R2       => 0.93362 
## 
## Step     => 5 
## Removed  => Holiday_Flag:CPI 
## Model    => Weekly_Sales ~ Store + Holiday_Flag + Temperature + Fuel_Price + CPI + Store:Holiday_Flag + Store:Temperature + Store:Fuel_Price + Store:CPI + Store:Unemployment + Holiday_Flag:Temperature + Holiday_Flag:Fuel_Price + Temperature:Fuel_Price + Temperature:CPI + Temperature:Unemployment + Fuel_Price:CPI 
## R2       => 0.93362 
## 
## Step     => 6 
## Removed  => Holiday_Flag:Fuel_Price 
## Model    => Weekly_Sales ~ Store + Holiday_Flag + Temperature + Fuel_Price + CPI + Store:Holiday_Flag + Store:Temperature + Store:Fuel_Price + Store:CPI + Store:Unemployment + Holiday_Flag:Temperature + Temperature:Fuel_Price + Temperature:CPI + Temperature:Unemployment + Fuel_Price:CPI 
## R2       => 0.93361 
## 
## 
## No more variables to be removed.
## 
## Variables Removed: 
## 
## => Fuel_Price:Unemployment 
## => Holiday_Flag:Unemployment 
## => Unemployment 
## => CPI:Unemployment 
## => Holiday_Flag:CPI 
## => Holiday_Flag:Fuel_Price

Interpretations of Three Predictors:

$Fuel Price: When fuel prices goes up, sales go down.

Holiday_Flag: Sales increase during the holidays.

CPI: As the CPI goes up, so do sales.

The R^2 of the model (calculated on the validation data) is 0.9252588

Appendix

Model without Interactions

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = Weekly_Sales ~ . - Date, data = trainlm)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -516606  -70588  -12204   38978 1839175 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)    1177191.3   274586.6   4.287 1.85e-05 ***
## Store2          349131.3    22526.6  15.499  < 2e-16 ***
## Store3        -1180472.8    22420.2 -52.652  < 2e-16 ***
## Store4          792499.4   115073.4   6.887 6.51e-12 ***
## Store5        -1276994.1    23568.8 -54.182  < 2e-16 ***
## Store6          -25895.9    22947.3  -1.128 0.259174    
## Store7         -929692.1    35415.9 -26.251  < 2e-16 ***
## Store8         -719753.7    23599.0 -30.499  < 2e-16 ***
## Store9        -1063586.0    23490.6 -45.277  < 2e-16 ***
## Store10         687061.8   111861.6   6.142 8.87e-10 ***
## Store11        -209743.1    22677.1  -9.249  < 2e-16 ***
## Store12        -103006.2   105050.9  -0.981 0.326876    
## Store13         748790.2   113277.3   6.610 4.30e-11 ***
## Store14         575837.2    42916.5  13.418  < 2e-16 ***
## Store15        -637699.9   104790.1  -6.086 1.26e-09 ***
## Store16       -1011942.2    38704.5 -26.145  < 2e-16 ***
## Store17        -399356.7   114191.2  -3.497 0.000475 ***
## Store18        -169102.9   102261.7  -1.654 0.098275 .  
## Store19         179678.2   104585.9   1.718 0.085868 .  
## Store20         571909.4    24821.8  23.041  < 2e-16 ***
## Store21        -813082.2    22450.5 -36.217  < 2e-16 ***
## Store22        -232820.0    99138.3  -2.348 0.018897 *  
## Store23          24568.0   111570.5   0.220 0.825724    
## Store24          95009.8   103779.2   0.915 0.359980    
## Store25        -844351.7    25158.9 -33.561  < 2e-16 ***
## Store26        -280650.7   104466.5  -2.687 0.007247 ** 
## Store27         479417.9    99839.1   4.802 1.62e-06 ***
## Store28         197073.8   105174.4   1.874 0.061027 .  
## Store29        -695850.1   100608.1  -6.916 5.30e-12 ***
## Store30       -1122822.2    22464.4 -49.982  < 2e-16 ***
## Store31        -157793.3    22277.6  -7.083 1.64e-12 ***
## Store32        -316477.0    34860.9  -9.078  < 2e-16 ***
## Store33        -949428.7   111367.0  -8.525  < 2e-16 ***
## Store34        -240079.9   106954.4  -2.245 0.024838 *  
## Store35        -373637.4    97860.2  -3.818 0.000136 ***
## Store36       -1179879.1    22408.0 -52.654  < 2e-16 ***
## Store37       -1032674.6    22827.4 -45.238  < 2e-16 ***
## Store38        -724615.4   105135.0  -6.892 6.28e-12 ***
## Store39         -92296.2    22966.7  -4.019 5.95e-05 ***
## Store40        -391232.2   111596.0  -3.506 0.000460 ***
## Store41        -247376.2    37849.6  -6.536 7.05e-11 ***
## Store42        -666458.1   111816.2  -5.960 2.72e-09 ***
## Store43        -848044.0    25856.9 -32.798  < 2e-16 ***
## Store44        -983625.2   113752.9  -8.647  < 2e-16 ***
## Store45        -645589.4    42826.7 -15.074  < 2e-16 ***
## Holiday_Flag1    70121.6     9729.7   7.207 6.70e-13 ***
## Temperature       -975.5      161.6  -6.035 1.72e-09 ***
## Fuel_Price      -44356.4     8691.6  -5.103 3.48e-07 ***
## CPI               3552.9     1245.2   2.853 0.004346 ** 
## Unemployment    -22917.4     5151.6  -4.449 8.86e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 160600 on 4375 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.9208, Adjusted R-squared:  0.9199 
## F-statistic:  1038 on 49 and 4375 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

Model with Interactions

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = Weekly_Sales ~ (. - Date)^2, data = trainlm)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -619109  -57035   -9405   32811 1615565 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                              Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                -1.297e+07  8.019e+06  -1.618 0.105782    
## Store2                     -8.328e+06  5.495e+06  -1.516 0.129697    
## Store3                      1.889e+06  3.703e+06   0.510 0.609945    
## Store4                     -2.748e+06  7.500e+06  -0.366 0.714049    
## Store5                      1.826e+06  4.222e+06   0.433 0.665337    
## Store6                     -8.610e+06  4.279e+06  -2.012 0.044279 *  
## Store7                     -3.933e+06  4.659e+06  -0.844 0.398721    
## Store8                      6.520e+05  3.513e+06   0.186 0.852764    
## Store9                      1.436e+05  4.106e+06   0.035 0.972102    
## Store10                     2.073e+07  7.273e+06   2.851 0.004384 ** 
## Store11                    -4.198e+06  3.793e+06  -1.107 0.268433    
## Store12                     4.777e+06  5.124e+06   0.932 0.351290    
## Store13                     6.280e+06  8.784e+06   0.715 0.474685    
## Store14                     1.385e+07  2.901e+06   4.774 1.87e-06 ***
## Store15                     6.727e+06  3.828e+06   1.757 0.078958 .  
## Store16                     1.836e+06  4.658e+06   0.394 0.693477    
## Store17                     8.365e+06  5.463e+06   1.531 0.125780    
## Store18                     5.679e+06  5.624e+06   1.010 0.312665    
## Store19                     6.023e+06  3.839e+06   1.569 0.116757    
## Store20                     2.697e+06  2.808e+06   0.960 0.337027    
## Store21                    -5.632e+06  5.121e+06  -1.100 0.271564    
## Store22                     2.645e+06  5.310e+06   0.498 0.618372    
## Store23                     6.190e+06  7.004e+06   0.884 0.376866    
## Store24                     3.306e+06  4.038e+06   0.819 0.413033    
## Store25                     2.558e+06  2.831e+06   0.903 0.366390    
## Store26                     6.840e+06  7.164e+06   0.955 0.339768    
## Store27                     8.873e+06  3.697e+06   2.400 0.016430 *  
## Store28                     5.927e+06  5.169e+06   1.147 0.251579    
## Store29                     4.592e+06  4.541e+06   1.011 0.311922    
## Store30                     5.648e+06  5.094e+06   1.109 0.267627    
## Store31                    -1.307e+06  5.043e+06  -0.259 0.795475    
## Store32                    -5.998e+06  4.845e+06  -1.238 0.215800    
## Store33                     6.848e+06  6.524e+06   1.050 0.293871    
## Store34                     3.031e+06  4.106e+06   0.738 0.460485    
## Store35                     7.233e+06  3.455e+06   2.094 0.036341 *  
## Store36                     8.115e+06  5.566e+06   1.458 0.144954    
## Store37                     4.464e+06  5.582e+06   0.800 0.423964    
## Store38                     4.605e+06  5.362e+06   0.859 0.390537    
## Store39                    -5.297e+06  5.464e+06  -0.969 0.332398    
## Store40                     8.144e+06  7.023e+06   1.160 0.246230    
## Store41                    -1.281e+07  5.476e+06  -2.339 0.019399 *  
## Store42                     8.783e+06  6.771e+06   1.297 0.194609    
## Store43                     4.461e+06  3.196e+06   1.396 0.162900    
## Store44                     1.006e+07  8.961e+06   1.122 0.261818    
## Store45                     2.942e+06  2.931e+06   1.004 0.315504    
## Holiday_Flag1              -8.335e+04  1.193e+06  -0.070 0.944286    
## Temperature                 6.239e+04  1.983e+04   3.146 0.001667 ** 
## Fuel_Price                  1.715e+06  9.382e+05   1.828 0.067593 .  
## CPI                         6.924e+04  3.734e+04   1.854 0.063766 .  
## Unemployment                1.793e+05  8.970e+05   0.200 0.841608    
## Store2:Holiday_Flag1        5.534e+04  8.636e+04   0.641 0.521689    
## Store3:Holiday_Flag1       -1.309e+05  8.421e+04  -1.554 0.120225    
## Store4:Holiday_Flag1        1.466e+05  5.189e+05   0.283 0.777495    
## Store5:Holiday_Flag1       -4.930e+04  1.042e+05  -0.473 0.636169    
## Store6:Holiday_Flag1       -9.919e+04  9.195e+04  -1.079 0.280803    
## Store7:Holiday_Flag1        5.371e+04  1.531e+05   0.351 0.725685    
## Store8:Holiday_Flag1       -1.204e+05  9.942e+04  -1.211 0.225996    
## Store9:Holiday_Flag1       -6.759e+04  1.363e+05  -0.496 0.620056    
## Store10:Holiday_Flag1      -4.352e+04  5.073e+05  -0.086 0.931649    
## Store11:Holiday_Flag1      -1.131e+05  8.650e+04  -1.307 0.191248    
## Store12:Holiday_Flag1       1.584e+05  4.998e+05   0.317 0.751290    
## Store13:Holiday_Flag1      -4.353e+04  5.090e+05  -0.086 0.931840    
## Store14:Holiday_Flag1       6.613e+02  1.954e+05   0.003 0.997300    
## Store15:Holiday_Flag1       9.934e+04  4.804e+05   0.207 0.836178    
## Store16:Holiday_Flag1      -2.810e+04  1.644e+05  -0.171 0.864258    
## Store17:Holiday_Flag1       1.580e+05  5.135e+05   0.308 0.758292    
## Store18:Holiday_Flag1       8.286e+04  4.687e+05   0.177 0.859678    
## Store19:Holiday_Flag1      -3.885e+04  4.795e+05  -0.081 0.935428    
## Store20:Holiday_Flag1      -1.372e+05  1.009e+05  -1.360 0.174020    
## Store21:Holiday_Flag1      -1.245e+05  8.388e+04  -1.485 0.137697    
## Store22:Holiday_Flag1      -1.504e+04  4.515e+05  -0.033 0.973434    
## Store23:Holiday_Flag1       3.423e+04  4.961e+05   0.069 0.945002    
## Store24:Holiday_Flag1       1.262e+05  4.791e+05   0.263 0.792240    
## Store25:Holiday_Flag1      -1.163e+05  1.000e+05  -1.162 0.245110    
## Store26:Holiday_Flag1       8.200e+04  4.776e+05   0.172 0.863675    
## Store27:Holiday_Flag1       9.083e+04  4.597e+05   0.198 0.843386    
## Store28:Holiday_Flag1       7.475e+04  5.032e+05   0.149 0.881930    
## Store29:Holiday_Flag1       6.015e+04  4.665e+05   0.129 0.897409    
## Store30:Holiday_Flag1      -1.623e+05  9.371e+04  -1.732 0.083401 .  
## Store31:Holiday_Flag1       1.852e+04  8.637e+04   0.214 0.830223    
## Store32:Holiday_Flag1      -1.165e+04  1.543e+05  -0.076 0.939786    
## Store33:Holiday_Flag1      -6.878e+04  5.102e+05  -0.135 0.892783    
## Store34:Holiday_Flag1       1.236e+04  4.924e+05   0.025 0.979978    
## Store35:Holiday_Flag1       1.050e+05  4.515e+05   0.233 0.816089    
## Store36:Holiday_Flag1      -1.684e+05  8.684e+04  -1.939 0.052579 .  
## Store37:Holiday_Flag1      -1.662e+05  8.402e+04  -1.978 0.048014 *  
## Store38:Holiday_Flag1      -3.352e+04  5.018e+05  -0.067 0.946750    
## Store39:Holiday_Flag1       2.266e+05  1.041e+05   2.178 0.029495 *  
## Store40:Holiday_Flag1       1.056e+04  4.958e+05   0.021 0.983004    
## Store41:Holiday_Flag1      -9.792e+04  1.614e+05  -0.606 0.544223    
## Store42:Holiday_Flag1      -5.177e+04  5.088e+05  -0.102 0.918955    
## Store43:Holiday_Flag1      -1.224e+05  1.044e+05  -1.172 0.241175    
## Store44:Holiday_Flag1      -2.095e+04  5.141e+05  -0.041 0.967505    
## Store45:Holiday_Flag1      -3.631e+04  1.948e+05  -0.186 0.852127    
## Store2:Temperature          6.468e+02  1.517e+03   0.426 0.669905    
## Store3:Temperature          1.718e+03  1.739e+03   0.988 0.323384    
## Store4:Temperature         -3.095e+04  8.398e+03  -3.686 0.000231 ***
## Store5:Temperature          1.723e+03  1.747e+03   0.986 0.324135    
## Store6:Temperature          1.776e+03  1.731e+03   1.026 0.304810    
## Store7:Temperature         -3.996e+03  2.490e+03  -1.605 0.108652    
## Store8:Temperature          1.483e+03  1.620e+03   0.915 0.360038    
## Store9:Temperature          2.058e+03  1.655e+03   1.243 0.213806    
## Store10:Temperature        -3.810e+04  8.242e+03  -4.622 3.91e-06 ***
## Store11:Temperature        -2.565e+02  1.725e+03  -0.149 0.881796    
## Store12:Temperature        -2.844e+04  7.884e+03  -3.607 0.000314 ***
## Store13:Temperature        -3.059e+04  8.305e+03  -3.683 0.000233 ***
## Store14:Temperature        -9.522e+03  3.120e+03  -3.052 0.002286 ** 
## Store15:Temperature        -2.535e+04  7.693e+03  -3.295 0.000993 ***
## Store16:Temperature        -4.345e+03  2.661e+03  -1.633 0.102627    
## Store17:Temperature        -2.714e+04  8.340e+03  -3.254 0.001148 ** 
## Store18:Temperature        -2.503e+04  7.587e+03  -3.300 0.000977 ***
## Store19:Temperature        -2.705e+04  7.691e+03  -3.517 0.000441 ***
## Store20:Temperature        -6.118e+03  1.663e+03  -3.679 0.000237 ***
## Store21:Temperature         8.856e+02  1.571e+03   0.564 0.572894    
## Store22:Temperature        -2.703e+04  7.289e+03  -3.709 0.000211 ***
## Store23:Temperature        -2.439e+04  8.040e+03  -3.034 0.002431 ** 
## Store24:Temperature        -2.356e+04  7.640e+03  -3.083 0.002062 ** 
## Store25:Temperature        -1.257e+03  1.672e+03  -0.751 0.452437    
## Store26:Temperature        -2.308e+04  7.725e+03  -2.988 0.002825 ** 
## Store27:Temperature        -1.972e+04  7.349e+03  -2.683 0.007323 ** 
## Store28:Temperature        -2.998e+04  7.890e+03  -3.800 0.000147 ***
## Store29:Temperature        -2.535e+04  7.480e+03  -3.389 0.000709 ***
## Store30:Temperature         1.786e+03  1.520e+03   1.175 0.240136    
## Store31:Temperature         6.114e+01  1.535e+03   0.040 0.968230    
## Store32:Temperature        -4.279e+03  2.441e+03  -1.753 0.079738 .  
## Store33:Temperature        -2.720e+04  8.215e+03  -3.311 0.000938 ***
## Store34:Temperature        -2.752e+04  7.889e+03  -3.489 0.000491 ***
## Store35:Temperature        -2.131e+04  7.197e+03  -2.961 0.003082 ** 
## Store36:Temperature         1.686e+03  1.822e+03   0.925 0.355056    
## Store37:Temperature         9.967e+02  1.820e+03   0.548 0.583967    
## Store38:Temperature        -2.613e+04  7.902e+03  -3.306 0.000954 ***
## Store39:Temperature         3.202e+03  1.850e+03   1.731 0.083584 .  
## Store40:Temperature        -2.543e+04  8.037e+03  -3.164 0.001568 ** 
## Store41:Temperature        -4.342e+03  2.623e+03  -1.656 0.097895 .  
## Store42:Temperature        -2.873e+04  8.268e+03  -3.475 0.000516 ***
## Store43:Temperature         7.914e+02  1.791e+03   0.442 0.658549    
## Store44:Temperature        -2.705e+04  8.356e+03  -3.237 0.001218 ** 
## Store45:Temperature        -9.762e+03  3.117e+03  -3.131 0.001751 ** 
## Store2:Fuel_Price          -2.454e+05  9.050e+04  -2.711 0.006726 ** 
## Store3:Fuel_Price           4.240e+04  9.617e+04   0.441 0.659322    
## Store4:Fuel_Price          -1.013e+06  3.627e+05  -2.794 0.005235 ** 
## Store5:Fuel_Price           3.207e+03  9.324e+04   0.034 0.972568    
## Store6:Fuel_Price          -1.901e+05  8.695e+04  -2.186 0.028850 *  
## Store7:Fuel_Price          -1.226e+05  1.184e+05  -1.035 0.300635    
## Store8:Fuel_Price           1.706e+04  8.939e+04   0.191 0.848646    
## Store9:Fuel_Price           3.270e+04  9.404e+04   0.348 0.728071    
## Store10:Fuel_Price         -7.926e+05  3.415e+05  -2.321 0.020343 *  
## Store11:Fuel_Price         -1.443e+05  9.995e+04  -1.444 0.148873    
## Store12:Fuel_Price         -7.544e+05  3.163e+05  -2.386 0.017098 *  
## Store13:Fuel_Price         -8.571e+05  3.649e+05  -2.349 0.018871 *  
## Store14:Fuel_Price         -2.274e+05  1.367e+05  -1.664 0.096114 .  
## Store15:Fuel_Price         -7.315e+05  3.232e+05  -2.263 0.023663 *  
## Store16:Fuel_Price         -1.565e+05  1.400e+05  -1.118 0.263828    
## Store17:Fuel_Price         -6.151e+05  3.643e+05  -1.688 0.091415 .  
## Store18:Fuel_Price         -8.393e+05  3.148e+05  -2.666 0.007712 ** 
## Store19:Fuel_Price         -8.191e+05  3.230e+05  -2.536 0.011255 *  
## Store20:Fuel_Price         -2.399e+05  9.632e+04  -2.491 0.012780 *  
## Store21:Fuel_Price         -7.778e+04  8.815e+04  -0.882 0.377669    
## Store22:Fuel_Price         -7.768e+05  3.079e+05  -2.523 0.011666 *  
## Store23:Fuel_Price         -7.856e+05  3.598e+05  -2.183 0.029077 *  
## Store24:Fuel_Price         -8.323e+05  3.220e+05  -2.585 0.009778 ** 
## Store25:Fuel_Price         -1.046e+05  9.299e+04  -1.125 0.260512    
## Store26:Fuel_Price         -7.323e+05  3.256e+05  -2.249 0.024561 *  
## Store27:Fuel_Price         -7.214e+05  3.077e+05  -2.344 0.019123 *  
## Store28:Fuel_Price         -8.012e+05  3.175e+05  -2.524 0.011651 *  
## Store29:Fuel_Price         -7.336e+05  3.037e+05  -2.415 0.015760 *  
## Store30:Fuel_Price          4.340e+03  8.777e+04   0.049 0.960571    
## Store31:Fuel_Price          1.033e+04  8.920e+04   0.116 0.907830    
## Store32:Fuel_Price         -1.115e+05  1.153e+05  -0.967 0.333533    
## Store33:Fuel_Price         -7.653e+05  3.396e+05  -2.254 0.024262 *  
## Store34:Fuel_Price         -8.705e+05  3.287e+05  -2.648 0.008124 ** 
## Store35:Fuel_Price         -6.134e+05  3.034e+05  -2.021 0.043304 *  
## Store36:Fuel_Price          1.783e+04  9.776e+04   0.182 0.855302    
## Store37:Fuel_Price          2.452e+04  1.012e+05   0.242 0.808661    
## Store38:Fuel_Price         -7.613e+05  3.194e+05  -2.384 0.017188 *  
## Store39:Fuel_Price         -9.643e+04  9.896e+04  -0.974 0.329892    
## Store40:Fuel_Price         -7.601e+05  3.578e+05  -2.125 0.033672 *  
## Store41:Fuel_Price         -7.637e+04  1.316e+05  -0.580 0.561615    
## Store42:Fuel_Price         -7.224e+05  3.415e+05  -2.115 0.034474 *  
## Store43:Fuel_Price         -2.673e+04  1.098e+05  -0.243 0.807717    
## Store44:Fuel_Price         -6.824e+05  3.629e+05  -1.880 0.060129 .  
## Store45:Fuel_Price         -2.602e+05  1.355e+05  -1.921 0.054800 .  
## Store2:CPI                  3.783e+04  2.185e+04   1.732 0.083407 .  
## Store3:CPI                 -1.268e+04  1.466e+04  -0.865 0.387214    
## Store4:CPI                  8.215e+04  4.409e+04   1.863 0.062510 .  
## Store5:CPI                 -1.252e+04  1.667e+04  -0.751 0.452773    
## Store6:CPI                  3.540e+04  1.697e+04   2.085 0.037109 *  
## Store7:CPI                  1.412e+04  1.919e+04   0.736 0.461824    
## Store8:CPI                 -6.105e+03  1.426e+04  -0.428 0.668683    
## Store9:CPI                 -5.818e+03  1.664e+04  -0.350 0.726650    
## Store10:CPI                -9.419e+04  4.627e+04  -2.035 0.041869 *  
## Store11:CPI                 1.688e+04  1.504e+04   1.122 0.261918    
## Store12:CPI                 4.620e+03  4.309e+04   0.107 0.914632    
## Store13:CPI                 9.521e+03  5.800e+04   0.164 0.869626    
## Store14:CPI                -5.506e+04  1.151e+04  -4.783 1.79e-06 ***
## Store15:CPI                -1.270e+04  1.669e+04  -0.761 0.446571    
## Store16:CPI                -9.117e+03  1.740e+04  -0.524 0.600317    
## Store17:CPI                -2.351e+04  2.525e+04  -0.931 0.351879    
## Store18:CPI                 2.308e+03  3.055e+04   0.076 0.939784    
## Store19:CPI                 1.538e+03  1.697e+04   0.091 0.927803    
## Store20:CPI                 3.017e+03  1.098e+04   0.275 0.783480    
## Store21:CPI                 1.753e+04  2.020e+04   0.868 0.385584    
## Store22:CPI                 1.530e+04  2.616e+04   0.585 0.558736    
## Store23:CPI                -5.872e+02  3.404e+04  -0.017 0.986236    
## Store24:CPI                 2.726e+04  2.590e+04   1.052 0.292753    
## Store25:CPI                -1.066e+04  1.092e+04  -0.976 0.329209    
## Store26:CPI                -8.150e+03  3.437e+04  -0.237 0.812608    
## Store27:CPI                -1.868e+04  1.796e+04  -1.040 0.298507    
## Store28:CPI                 2.443e+02  4.353e+04   0.006 0.995523    
## Store29:CPI                -7.547e+01  2.525e+04  -0.003 0.997616    
## Store30:CPI                -2.710e+04  2.001e+04  -1.354 0.175808    
## Store31:CPI                 3.316e+03  1.994e+04   0.166 0.867957    
## Store32:CPI                 2.305e+04  1.947e+04   1.184 0.236534    
## Store33:CPI                -1.545e+04  4.126e+04  -0.375 0.708046    
## Store34:CPI                 1.929e+04  2.433e+04   0.793 0.427885    
## Store35:CPI                -5.044e+04  1.617e+04  -3.119 0.001830 ** 
## Store36:CPI                -3.967e+04  2.286e+04  -1.735 0.082818 .  
## Store37:CPI                -2.258e+04  2.299e+04  -0.982 0.326100    
## Store38:CPI                 3.381e+03  4.454e+04   0.076 0.939495    
## Store39:CPI                 2.340e+04  2.237e+04   1.046 0.295532    
## Store40:CPI                -1.713e+04  3.399e+04  -0.504 0.614249    
## Store41:CPI                 5.358e+04  2.133e+04   2.513 0.012025 *  
## Store42:CPI                -2.582e+04  4.246e+04  -0.608 0.543125    
## Store43:CPI                -2.041e+04  1.503e+04  -1.357 0.174729    
## Store44:CPI                -3.975e+04  5.879e+04  -0.676 0.499073    
## Store45:CPI                -9.500e+03  1.152e+04  -0.824 0.409749    
## Store2:Unemployment         1.670e+05  1.355e+05   1.232 0.218021    
## Store3:Unemployment        -7.474e+04  1.111e+05  -0.673 0.501239    
## Store4:Unemployment        -1.038e+05  3.977e+05  -0.261 0.794154    
## Store5:Unemployment        -6.994e+04  1.369e+05  -0.511 0.609375    
## Store6:Unemployment         2.157e+05  1.245e+05   1.732 0.083264 .  
## Store7:Unemployment         1.332e+05  1.671e+05   0.797 0.425439    
## Store8:Unemployment        -2.099e+04  1.168e+05  -0.180 0.857330    
## Store9:Unemployment        -1.985e+04  1.243e+05  -0.160 0.873106    
## Store10:Unemployment       -2.302e+05  4.055e+05  -0.568 0.570346    
## Store11:Unemployment        1.089e+05  1.124e+05   0.970 0.332274    
## Store12:Unemployment       -6.285e+04  3.999e+05  -0.157 0.875105    
## Store13:Unemployment       -1.416e+05  4.027e+05  -0.352 0.725065    
## Store14:Unemployment       -1.635e+05  2.219e+05  -0.737 0.461272    
## Store15:Unemployment       -9.647e+04  3.901e+05  -0.247 0.804692    
## Store16:Unemployment        1.218e+04  2.029e+05   0.060 0.952117    
## Store17:Unemployment       -1.397e+05  4.022e+05  -0.347 0.728420    
## Store18:Unemployment       -1.162e+05  3.855e+05  -0.302 0.763047    
## Store19:Unemployment       -9.519e+04  3.886e+05  -0.245 0.806495    
## Store20:Unemployment       -2.027e+05  1.214e+05  -1.670 0.094964 .  
## Store21:Unemployment        1.637e+05  1.306e+05   1.253 0.210211    
## Store22:Unemployment        8.452e+03  3.720e+05   0.023 0.981873    
## Store23:Unemployment       -1.501e+05  3.997e+05  -0.375 0.707350    
## Store24:Unemployment       -2.141e+05  3.866e+05  -0.554 0.579698    
## Store25:Unemployment       -8.607e+04  1.221e+05  -0.705 0.480789    
## Store26:Unemployment       -1.557e+05  4.301e+05  -0.362 0.717460    
## Store27:Unemployment       -1.661e+05  3.757e+05  -0.442 0.658551    
## Store28:Unemployment       -6.300e+04  3.996e+05  -0.158 0.874755    
## Store29:Unemployment       -6.005e+04  3.775e+05  -0.159 0.873596    
## Store30:Unemployment       -1.374e+05  1.317e+05  -1.043 0.296910    
## Store31:Unemployment        5.242e+04  1.273e+05   0.412 0.680515    
## Store32:Unemployment        2.386e+05  1.797e+05   1.328 0.184399    
## Store33:Unemployment       -8.437e+04  4.023e+05  -0.210 0.833910    
## Store34:Unemployment       -4.403e+04  3.965e+05  -0.111 0.911587    
## Store35:Unemployment        4.017e+05  3.813e+05   1.054 0.292111    
## Store36:Unemployment       -1.188e+05  1.211e+05  -0.981 0.326593    
## Store37:Unemployment       -9.959e+04  1.232e+05  -0.809 0.418766    
## Store38:Unemployment       -9.447e+04  3.999e+05  -0.236 0.813269    
## Store39:Unemployment        3.292e+04  1.221e+05   0.270 0.787518    
## Store40:Unemployment       -1.850e+05  4.008e+05  -0.462 0.644342    
## Store41:Unemployment        4.368e+05  2.074e+05   2.106 0.035289 *  
## Store42:Unemployment       -1.268e+05  4.039e+05  -0.314 0.753615    
## Store43:Unemployment       -1.096e+05  9.932e+04  -1.103 0.270055    
## Store44:Unemployment       -1.337e+05  4.028e+05  -0.332 0.739941    
## Store45:Unemployment       -1.088e+04  2.268e+05  -0.048 0.961750    
## Holiday_Flag1:Temperature   1.975e+03  6.107e+02   3.234 0.001229 ** 
## Holiday_Flag1:Fuel_Price   -2.908e+04  4.905e+04  -0.593 0.553231    
## Holiday_Flag1:CPI           1.028e+03  5.636e+03   0.182 0.855348    
## Holiday_Flag1:Unemployment -3.337e+03  2.313e+04  -0.144 0.885310    
## Temperature:Fuel_Price      2.998e+03  6.919e+02   4.333 1.50e-05 ***
## Temperature:CPI            -3.318e+02  9.243e+01  -3.590 0.000334 ***
## Temperature:Unemployment   -3.576e+02  3.624e+02  -0.987 0.323821    
## Fuel_Price:CPI             -8.976e+03  3.887e+03  -2.310 0.020965 *  
## Fuel_Price:Unemployment    -1.202e+03  2.263e+04  -0.053 0.957635    
## CPI:Unemployment           -5.326e+02  4.266e+03  -0.125 0.900654    
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 151000 on 4145 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.9336, Adjusted R-squared:  0.9292 
## F-statistic:   209 on 279 and 4145 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16