Functional models for Implementation in non-technology detailed IAMs
Yannick and Lara
2024-03-29
AR6- Database
We have run the AR6 database with a battery of mortality impact functions from FASST(R) (Rodes et al. 2024).
We then calculate CO2 FFI emissions and mortality changes wrt to baselines and fit function models to the data per R10, regions. The models can then be directly implemented into simple IAMs (e.g. RICE+)
AFRICA
| Region | Model | Eq | RMSE | MAE | R2 | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFRICA | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 4.725569e+03 | 3.548881e+03 | 4.747953e-01 | 2030 |
| AFRICA | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 4.928303e+03 | 3.822484e+03 | 4.287645e-01 | 2030 |
| AFRICA | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 5.483734e+03 | 4.515551e+03 | 2.453477e-01 | 2030 |
| AFRICA | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 4.691614e+03 | 3.504411e+03 | 4.823156e-01 | 2030 |
| AFRICA | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 4.683478e+03 | 3.470481e+03 | 4.841097e-01 | 2030 |
| AFRICA | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 4.677577e+03 | 3.462072e+03 | 4.854087e-01 | 2030 |
| AFRICA | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 4.704851e+03 | 3.491440e+03 | 4.793905e-01 | 2030 |
| AFRICA | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 6.470602e+03 | 5.050022e+03 | 1.528680e-02 | 2030 |
| AFRICA | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 1.640379e+04 | 1.187780e+04 | 2.435096e-01 | 2050 |
| AFRICA | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 1.910974e+12 | 1.501610e+11 | -1.026655e+16 | 2050 |
| AFRICA | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 1.674603e+04 | 1.249400e+04 | 1.379192e-01 | 2050 |
| AFRICA | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 1.629860e+04 | 1.182881e+04 | 2.531803e-01 | 2050 |
| AFRICA | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 1.613439e+04 | 1.162974e+04 | 2.681527e-01 | 2050 |
| AFRICA | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 1.607711e+04 | 1.146352e+04 | 2.733399e-01 | 2050 |
| AFRICA | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 1.608229e+04 | 1.145233e+04 | 2.728715e-01 | 2050 |
| AFRICA | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 1.879141e+04 | 1.318788e+04 | 7.263900e-03 | 2050 |
CHINA+
| Region | Model | Eq | RMSE | MAE | R2 | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHINA+ | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 4.625669e+04 | 3.041106e+04 | 7.106896e-01 | 2030 |
| CHINA+ | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 5.408832e+28 | 4.630869e+27 | -3.955688e+47 | 2030 |
| CHINA+ | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 7.161129e+04 | 5.638403e+04 | 3.026944e-01 | 2030 |
| CHINA+ | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 4.333780e+04 | 2.958880e+04 | 7.460497e-01 | 2030 |
| CHINA+ | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 4.318050e+04 | 2.916213e+04 | 7.478899e-01 | 2030 |
| CHINA+ | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 4.326265e+04 | 2.964100e+04 | 7.469297e-01 | 2030 |
| CHINA+ | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 4.348671e+04 | 3.065678e+04 | 7.443015e-01 | 2030 |
| CHINA+ | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 8.577176e+04 | 6.612363e+04 | 5.273600e-03 | 2030 |
| CHINA+ | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 9.607689e+04 | 7.767406e+04 | 3.850416e-01 | 2050 |
| CHINA+ | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 3.354947e+55 | 1.359514e+54 | -7.498583e+100 | 2050 |
| CHINA+ | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 9.883542e+04 | 8.265923e+04 | 2.320778e-01 | 2050 |
| CHINA+ | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 9.530279e+04 | 7.686564e+04 | 3.949112e-01 | 2050 |
| CHINA+ | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 9.278041e+04 | 7.465309e+04 | 4.265171e-01 | 2050 |
| CHINA+ | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 9.239537e+04 | 7.449736e+04 | 4.312671e-01 | 2050 |
| CHINA+ | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 9.292612e+04 | 7.305006e+04 | 4.247144e-01 | 2050 |
| CHINA+ | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 1.221484e+05 | 9.630055e+04 | 6.006700e-03 | 2050 |
EUROPE
| Region | Model | Eq | RMSE | MAE | R2 | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUROPE | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 1.133110e+04 | 7.630243e+03 | 6.331497e-01 | 2030 |
| EUROPE | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 5.451686e+05 | 6.005679e+04 | -8.481931e+02 | 2030 |
| EUROPE | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 1.664999e+04 | 9.425670e+03 | 2.366860e-01 | 2030 |
| EUROPE | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 7.844595e+03 | 5.487145e+03 | 8.241729e-01 | 2030 |
| EUROPE | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 7.347217e+03 | 5.091726e+03 | 8.457623e-01 | 2030 |
| EUROPE | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 7.309558e+03 | 5.132587e+03 | 8.473394e-01 | 2030 |
| EUROPE | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 7.695304e+03 | 5.270176e+03 | 8.308016e-01 | 2030 |
| EUROPE | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 1.856839e+04 | 9.709040e+03 | 1.487040e-02 | 2030 |
| EUROPE | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 1.682397e+04 | 1.081688e+04 | 4.630448e-01 | 2050 |
| EUROPE | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 2.104723e+13 | 9.562552e+11 | -8.403710e+17 | 2050 |
| EUROPE | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 1.992860e+04 | 1.366069e+04 | 2.264456e-01 | 2050 |
| EUROPE | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 1.625653e+04 | 9.882931e+03 | 4.986547e-01 | 2050 |
| EUROPE | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 1.621285e+04 | 9.541957e+03 | 5.013457e-01 | 2050 |
| EUROPE | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 1.585711e+04 | 9.092674e+03 | 5.229881e-01 | 2050 |
| EUROPE | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 1.586898e+04 | 9.138668e+03 | 5.222738e-01 | 2050 |
| EUROPE | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 2.290505e+04 | 1.582255e+04 | 4.723900e-03 | 2050 |
INDIA+
| Region | Model | Eq | RMSE | MAE | R2 | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INDIA+ | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 1.912865e+04 | 1.163796e+04 | 8.911416e-01 | 2030 |
| INDIA+ | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 2.931129e+04 | 2.199395e+04 | 7.443988e-01 | 2030 |
| INDIA+ | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 3.488015e+04 | 2.711823e+04 | 5.995186e-01 | 2030 |
| INDIA+ | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 1.907563e+04 | 1.146470e+04 | 8.917443e-01 | 2030 |
| INDIA+ | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 1.893401e+04 | 1.140996e+04 | 8.933457e-01 | 2030 |
| INDIA+ | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 1.890964e+04 | 1.136191e+04 | 8.936201e-01 | 2030 |
| INDIA+ | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 2.153616e+04 | 1.376278e+04 | 8.620157e-01 | 2030 |
| INDIA+ | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 5.732138e+04 | 4.740982e+04 | 2.247850e-02 | 2030 |
| INDIA+ | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 7.144061e+04 | 4.378746e+04 | 6.038783e-01 | 2050 |
| INDIA+ | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 1.199883e+24 | 7.920532e+22 | -1.117419e+38 | 2050 |
| INDIA+ | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 8.209159e+04 | 6.069260e+04 | 3.349021e-01 | 2050 |
| INDIA+ | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 6.760456e+04 | 4.440975e+04 | 6.452762e-01 | 2050 |
| INDIA+ | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 6.238974e+04 | 3.723533e+04 | 6.978903e-01 | 2050 |
| INDIA+ | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 6.481591e+04 | 3.989471e+04 | 6.739370e-01 | 2050 |
| INDIA+ | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 6.488516e+04 | 4.051081e+04 | 6.732398e-01 | 2050 |
| INDIA+ | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 1.130593e+05 | 9.078888e+04 | 7.910900e-03 | 2050 |
LATIN AM
| Region | Model | Eq | RMSE | MAE | R2 | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LATIN AM | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 5.011201e+03 | 3.636955e+03 | 4.042029e-01 | 2030 |
| LATIN AM | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 4.991868e+03 | 3.406227e+03 | 4.087911e-01 | 2030 |
| LATIN AM | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 5.289270e+03 | 3.988580e+03 | 2.563970e-01 | 2030 |
| LATIN AM | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 4.870846e+03 | 3.310216e+03 | 4.371100e-01 | 2030 |
| LATIN AM | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 4.858708e+03 | 3.274803e+03 | 4.399118e-01 | 2030 |
| LATIN AM | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 4.859874e+03 | 3.257013e+03 | 4.396429e-01 | 2030 |
| LATIN AM | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 4.884063e+03 | 3.196062e+03 | 4.340510e-01 | 2030 |
| LATIN AM | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 6.438811e+03 | 4.162708e+03 | 1.638260e-02 | 2030 |
| LATIN AM | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 1.123907e+04 | 8.553743e+03 | 1.523019e-01 | 2050 |
| LATIN AM | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 2.479010e+10 | 1.998558e+09 | -4.124177e+12 | 2050 |
| LATIN AM | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 1.113209e+04 | 9.181286e+03 | 8.373140e-02 | 2050 |
| LATIN AM | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 1.113143e+04 | 8.720242e+03 | 1.684618e-01 | 2050 |
| LATIN AM | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 1.109950e+04 | 8.657648e+03 | 1.732253e-01 | 2050 |
| LATIN AM | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 1.115190e+04 | 8.699154e+03 | 1.654007e-01 | 2050 |
| LATIN AM | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 1.127514e+04 | 8.544965e+03 | 1.468520e-01 | 2050 |
| LATIN AM | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 1.219199e+04 | 9.497660e+03 | 2.461400e-03 | 2050 |
MIDDLE EAST
| Region | Model | Eq | RMSE | MAE | R2 | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIDDLE EAST | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 1.727048e+03 | 1.093387e+03 | 4.383954e-01 | 2030 |
| MIDDLE EAST | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 1.861512e+03 | 1.275676e+03 | 3.475404e-01 | 2030 |
| MIDDLE EAST | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 1.996707e+03 | 1.413624e+03 | 2.610447e-01 | 2030 |
| MIDDLE EAST | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 1.718076e+03 | 1.093505e+03 | 4.442153e-01 | 2030 |
| MIDDLE EAST | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 1.710575e+03 | 1.087798e+03 | 4.490579e-01 | 2030 |
| MIDDLE EAST | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 1.725586e+03 | 1.087381e+03 | 4.393459e-01 | 2030 |
| MIDDLE EAST | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 1.679579e+03 | 1.065686e+03 | 4.688432e-01 | 2030 |
| MIDDLE EAST | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 2.290803e+03 | 1.726250e+03 | 1.190800e-02 | 2030 |
| MIDDLE EAST | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 3.450897e+03 | 2.144479e+03 | 2.909608e-01 | 2050 |
| MIDDLE EAST | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 2.398032e+14 | 1.037548e+13 | -3.423862e+21 | 2050 |
| MIDDLE EAST | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 3.621958e+03 | 2.500885e+03 | 1.481580e-01 | 2050 |
| MIDDLE EAST | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 3.447354e+03 | 2.159419e+03 | 2.924158e-01 | 2050 |
| MIDDLE EAST | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 3.391095e+03 | 2.192972e+03 | 3.153224e-01 | 2050 |
| MIDDLE EAST | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 3.444990e+03 | 2.176597e+03 | 2.933862e-01 | 2050 |
| MIDDLE EAST | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 3.504939e+03 | 2.215845e+03 | 2.685795e-01 | 2050 |
| MIDDLE EAST | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 4.078999e+03 | 2.901387e+03 | 9.365400e-03 | 2050 |
NORTH AM
| Region | Model | Eq | RMSE | MAE | R2 | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORTH AM | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 1.036107e+04 | 8.713124e+03 | 2.291208e-01 | 2030 |
| NORTH AM | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 4.336109e+06 | 1.935098e+05 | -1.350126e+05 | 2030 |
| NORTH AM | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 1.115859e+04 | 9.605939e+03 | 1.122643e-01 | 2030 |
| NORTH AM | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 1.035437e+04 | 8.745626e+03 | 2.301170e-01 | 2030 |
| NORTH AM | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 1.015053e+04 | 8.457626e+03 | 2.601309e-01 | 2030 |
| NORTH AM | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 9.334746e+03 | 6.895001e+03 | 3.742768e-01 | 2030 |
| NORTH AM | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 9.546819e+03 | 7.124180e+03 | 3.455226e-01 | 2030 |
| NORTH AM | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 1.086939e+04 | 8.462501e+03 | 1.516252e-01 | 2030 |
| NORTH AM | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 1.010372e+04 | 8.384060e+03 | 1.073038e-01 | 2050 |
| NORTH AM | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 1.079916e+23 | 4.363006e+21 | -1.019814e+38 | 2050 |
| NORTH AM | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 1.018979e+04 | 8.852109e+03 | 1.612590e-02 | 2050 |
| NORTH AM | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 9.994622e+03 | 8.440786e+03 | 1.264780e-01 | 2050 |
| NORTH AM | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 9.970232e+03 | 8.365975e+03 | 1.307360e-01 | 2050 |
| NORTH AM | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 9.986443e+03 | 8.395291e+03 | 1.279070e-01 | 2050 |
| NORTH AM | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 1.010324e+04 | 8.431880e+03 | 1.073883e-01 | 2050 |
| NORTH AM | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 1.063693e+04 | 8.833738e+03 | 1.059640e-02 | 2050 |
PAC OECD
| Region | Model | Eq | RMSE | MAE | R2 | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAC OECD | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 3351.517 | 2478.269 | 0.3872645 | 2030 |
| PAC OECD | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 3664.160 | 2762.968 | 0.2676158 | 2030 |
| PAC OECD | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 3683.258 | 2746.678 | 0.2533597 | 2030 |
| PAC OECD | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 3299.716 | 2414.217 | 0.4060590 | 2030 |
| PAC OECD | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 3261.410 | 2419.243 | 0.4197690 | 2030 |
| PAC OECD | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 3309.833 | 2427.007 | 0.4024113 | 2030 |
| PAC OECD | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 3264.950 | 2435.885 | 0.4185086 | 2030 |
| PAC OECD | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 4149.243 | 3006.874 | 0.0608652 | 2030 |
| PAC OECD | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 5106.145 | 4083.202 | 0.1942899 | 2050 |
| PAC OECD | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 5298.652 | 4307.350 | 0.1323927 | 2050 |
| PAC OECD | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 5174.376 | 4325.178 | 0.1229520 | 2050 |
| PAC OECD | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 4947.682 | 4056.502 | 0.2435224 | 2050 |
| PAC OECD | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 4911.432 | 3985.265 | 0.2545668 | 2050 |
| PAC OECD | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 4969.852 | 4020.517 | 0.2367280 | 2050 |
| PAC OECD | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 5005.332 | 4032.410 | 0.2257911 | 2050 |
| PAC OECD | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 5671.209 | 4469.729 | 0.0060976 | 2050 |
REF ECON
| Region | Model | Eq | RMSE | MAE | R2 | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REF ECON | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 9445.786 | 6774.892 | 7.175888e-01 | 2030 |
| REF ECON | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 11131.556 | 8200.622 | 6.077911e-01 | 2030 |
| REF ECON | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 15740.593 | 12845.000 | 2.496492e-01 | 2030 |
| REF ECON | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 9419.818 | 6633.764 | 7.191395e-01 | 2030 |
| REF ECON | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 8828.272 | 5887.903 | 7.533068e-01 | 2030 |
| REF ECON | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 8845.808 | 5817.338 | 7.523259e-01 | 2030 |
| REF ECON | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 8849.604 | 5787.153 | 7.521132e-01 | 2030 |
| REF ECON | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 17110.393 | 12937.058 | 7.332890e-02 | 2030 |
| REF ECON | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 18133.203 | 15067.893 | 1.258353e-01 | 2050 |
| REF ECON | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 28367481.308 | 1651221.273 | -2.139368e+06 | 2050 |
| REF ECON | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 18336.203 | 15641.659 | 4.742200e-02 | 2050 |
| REF ECON | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 17334.932 | 14575.773 | 2.011072e-01 | 2050 |
| REF ECON | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 17167.418 | 14367.802 | 2.164726e-01 | 2050 |
| REF ECON | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 17343.885 | 14232.867 | 2.002818e-01 | 2050 |
| REF ECON | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 17448.834 | 14292.207 | 1.905742e-01 | 2050 |
| REF ECON | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 19337.399 | 16177.029 | 5.876500e-03 | 2050 |
REST ASIA
| Region | Model | Eq | RMSE | MAE | R2 | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REST ASIA | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 1.739845e+04 | 1.328592e+04 | 6.604243e-01 | 2030 |
| REST ASIA | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 1.982317e+04 | 1.555913e+04 | 5.591797e-01 | 2030 |
| REST ASIA | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 2.156816e+04 | 1.711853e+04 | 4.344741e-01 | 2030 |
| REST ASIA | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 1.709366e+04 | 1.269043e+04 | 6.722176e-01 | 2030 |
| REST ASIA | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 1.695522e+04 | 1.261580e+04 | 6.775053e-01 | 2030 |
| REST ASIA | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 1.678423e+04 | 1.214586e+04 | 6.839771e-01 | 2030 |
| REST ASIA | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 1.688910e+04 | 1.217400e+04 | 6.800156e-01 | 2030 |
| REST ASIA | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 2.973495e+04 | 2.361709e+04 | 8.140900e-03 | 2030 |
| REST ASIA | Linear | diff_deaths ~ a + b * diff_emit | 4.243853e+04 | 3.191044e+04 | 4.469517e-01 | 2050 |
| REST ASIA | Exponential | a * exp(b * diff_emit) | 2.733928e+21 | 1.335687e+20 | -2.295179e+33 | 2050 |
| REST ASIA | Logaritmic | a + b * log(diff_emit) | 4.104973e+04 | 3.029391e+04 | 3.546380e-01 | 2050 |
| REST ASIA | Poli Quadradic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 | 4.226980e+04 | 3.148097e+04 | 4.513407e-01 | 2050 |
| REST ASIA | Poli Cubic | a + b * diff_emit + c * diff_emit^2 + d * diff_emit^3 | 3.952184e+04 | 2.916975e+04 | 5.203584e-01 | 2050 |
| REST ASIA | Logistic | (a / (1+exp(-(b + c*diff_emit))))+d | 3.907585e+04 | 2.777143e+04 | 5.311226e-01 | 2050 |
| REST ASIA | Sigmoid | diff_deaths ~ (a / (1+exp(-(b *(diff_emit-c))))) | 3.917518e+04 | 2.805979e+04 | 5.287358e-01 | 2050 |
| REST ASIA | Sinusoidal | diff_deaths ~a * sin(b*diff_emit+c)+d | 5.661733e+04 | 4.407214e+04 | 1.566870e-02 | 2050 |
