Chapter 11 Exercise 6:

In the Land of Oz example (Example 11.1), change the transition matrix by making \(R\) an absorbing state. This gives

\[ P = \begin{array}{c|ccc} & R & N & S \\ \hline R & 1 & 0 & 0 \\ N & \frac{1}{2} & 0 & \frac{1}{2} \\ S & \frac{1}{4} & \frac{1}{4} & \frac{1}{2} \\ \end{array} \]

Find the fundamental matrix \(N\), and also \(Nc\) and \(NR\). Interpret the results. \end{document}

Solution:

I first extracted the submatrix \(Q\) from the given transition matrix, which includes the transition probabilities between the non-absorbing states N and S. This submatrix \(Q\) is:

\[ Q = \begin{bmatrix} 0 & 0.5 \\ 0.25 & 0.5 \end{bmatrix} \]

I then identified the identity matrix \(I\) corresponding to the non-absorbing states, which is a 2x2 identity matrix since we have two non-absorbing states:

\[ I = \begin{bmatrix} 1 & 0 \\ 0 & 1 \end{bmatrix} \]

To find the fundamental matrix \(N\), I calculated the inverse of \(I - Q\):

\[ N = (I - Q)^{-1} \]

For the matrix \(R\), which represents the transition probabilities from non-absorbing to absorbing states, given that there is only one absorbing state R, it is a column matrix:

\[ R = \begin{bmatrix} 0 \\ 0.25 \end{bmatrix} \]

Multiplying the fundamental matrix \(N\) by \(R\), I obtained \(NR\), which gives the expected number of transitions from each non-absorbing state until being absorbed by state R.

The R code to find the fundamental matrix \(N\) and the matrix \(NR\) is:

# Define Q
Q <- matrix(c(0, 0.5, 0.25, 0.5), nrow=2, byrow=TRUE)

# Define the identity matrix I
I <- diag(2)

# Compute the fundamental matrix N
N <- solve(I - Q)

# Define R
R <- matrix(c(0, 0.25), ncol=1)

# Compute NR
NR <- N %*% R

In interpreting the results, the matrix \(N\) shows the expected number of visits to each non-absorbing state before reaching the absorbing state. The matrix \(NR\) indicates the expected number of steps to reach the absorbing state from each non-absorbing state.