Any suggestions you may have for me to include in further releases are best communicated via text.
Pitcher vs. Hitter Historical Data
Batter vs. Pitcher Handedness Data on the season
Batter trends vs. starting pitcher handedness
Stolen Base Trends for Hitters
Stolen Base Favorability Trends for Hitters
Park Factor inclusion by handedness for home run data
Pitcher Ladder Trends opponent ranks (e.g. SP facing an offense with 5th most strikeouts in MLB)
Modeled predictions for hits, home runs, and other stats
Sportsbooks outside of DraftKings to track lines
Lines/value assigned to props outside of home runs
The purpose of this page is to track Home Run line movements. This is version 1.2 of this data table. Please see the above notes to learn what new features and data plan to be released in subsequent updates.
## [1] "##### HOME RUN DATA TABLE UNDERGOING MAINTENANCE #####"## [1] "Incorporating new market of 2+ Home Run line offerings. Data will be updated accordingly..."## [1] "Please see sampler of data below from 2024-08-09"This table below shows a batter’s trends in their last 5 games as well as their last 10 games. In order to qualify to make this chart, the player must have at least 6 games played in the last 15 days (this way it takes into account teams with off days and travel days) as well as rest days. A “rest day” is defined as having not played OR amassing less than 3 plate appearances in a game.
This will update daily and should be accurate. If there are errors, please text me ASAP so I can fix.
This chart includes players trends in their last 5 games who qualify. They MUST have 5 games played to qualify to be in this chart since it is a smaller sample size “hot hitters” chart
When acquiring data, MLB splits only take into account that players current team for home and away data. For example, Luis Arraez was traded in May to San Diego. His splits data on the year does NOT include ANY data from when he was on the Marlins. This is something that will be fixed and coded up properly in the future so please, if you see data that looks a little wonky, text me and I will investigate if there is a bug with the code or it’s an MLB API distinction I have planned to fix.
NOTE: This includes the entire season’s worth of data vs pitching handedness. There will be updates to narrow down to last 10 or last 5 GP vs. the starting pitcher’s handedness. I can also work to split the data to show both righty and lefty. Let me know suggestions via text.
## Warning in FUN(X[[i]], ...): unable to translate '<U+00C4>' to native encoding## Warning in FUN(X[[i]], ...): unable to translate '<U+00D6>' to native encoding## Warning in FUN(X[[i]], ...): unable to translate '<U+00DC>' to native encoding## Warning in FUN(X[[i]], ...): unable to translate '<U+00E4>' to native encoding## Warning in FUN(X[[i]], ...): unable to translate '<U+00F6>' to native encoding## Warning in FUN(X[[i]], ...): unable to translate '<U+00FC>' to native encoding## Warning in FUN(X[[i]], ...): unable to translate '<U+00DF>' to native encoding## Warning in FUN(X[[i]], ...): unable to translate '<U+00C6>' to native encoding## Warning in FUN(X[[i]], ...): unable to translate '<U+00E6>' to native encoding## Warning in FUN(X[[i]], ...): unable to translate '<U+00D8>' to native encoding## Warning in FUN(X[[i]], ...): unable to translate '<U+00F8>' to native encoding## Warning in FUN(X[[i]], ...): unable to translate '<U+00C5>' to native encoding## Warning in FUN(X[[i]], ...): unable to translate '<U+00E5>' to native encodingThis table below shows a pitcher’s trends in their last ~4-5 starts (depending on their qualifying properties). This will update daily and is based on the listed projected starter on MLB.com. This is v1.2.2 of this table with further updates scheduled for v1.3.1 and beyond. If there are errors, please text me ASAP so I can fix.
Please note: if a pitcher does not appear in this list, it means they do not have any qualifying data to be in this list.
Here you will see stolen base data for each hitter today vs. the starting pitcher. The data presented is compiled over the last two seasons.
This table below shows a batter’s history vs. the projected pitcher for the day. This will update daily and should be accurate. Table is currently broken due to formatting and unreadability.
NOTE: This table will be re-published in a subsequent release due to the unreadability.
This is a daily model I run for myself. These are under the expectation of trying to win at a ~57% clip. The goal is ROI, view this like trading 0 DTE SPX options where the VIX value is dependent on the projected starter and changes in the lineup (environmental effects), and book’s line (market price). It is very similar to buying and selling shares of teams and while I can’t “write” any lines (aka short) we can use publicly available data to find an edge in the market and then invest in that edge.
Please note that I make bets AFTER the lineups are announced UNLESS I cannot re-run the script due to attending a game (literally the only reason I leave the house). If there is no chance for me to run my model before the lineups are announced, I will use the lineup from the day previously with the FALSE marker in the column which tracks if the lineups have been adjusted.
All games are adjusted from the probable starters listed on MLB.com at the time the script is ran. Unless a last second change occurs (which would be captured by a model re-run prior to the moment of first pitch) the amount invested will be dependent on the most recently captured line offered. For bullpen games, that is where things will get dicey and I will scale based on the overall expected run contribution of the bullpen, but I will cross that bridge when I get there.
Again, I usually try to run the model ~3-5 minutes before first pitch to account for any line changes as a result of last minute money flooding into the market (picture horse racing but it’s not a paramutual pot, literally a bid-ask spread that’s adjusted based on the number of “orders” [bets] that come into the market), but more importantly to capture and log the closing line for each game for future research purposes.
## [1] "Undergoing model training... The data posted below is a sample for publishing purposes."