Data Prep for modeling

Data Summary: The variables: store and holiday flag are continous but should be categorical

##      Store        Date            Weekly_Sales      Holiday_Flag    
##  Min.   : 1   Length:6435        Min.   : 209986   Min.   :0.00000  
##  1st Qu.:12   Class :character   1st Qu.: 553350   1st Qu.:0.00000  
##  Median :23   Mode  :character   Median : 960746   Median :0.00000  
##  Mean   :23                      Mean   :1046965   Mean   :0.06993  
##  3rd Qu.:34                      3rd Qu.:1420159   3rd Qu.:0.00000  
##  Max.   :45                      Max.   :3818686   Max.   :1.00000  
##   Temperature       Fuel_Price         CPI         Unemployment   
##  Min.   : -2.06   Min.   :2.472   Min.   :126.1   Min.   : 3.879  
##  1st Qu.: 47.46   1st Qu.:2.933   1st Qu.:131.7   1st Qu.: 6.891  
##  Median : 62.67   Median :3.445   Median :182.6   Median : 7.874  
##  Mean   : 60.66   Mean   :3.359   Mean   :171.6   Mean   : 7.999  
##  3rd Qu.: 74.94   3rd Qu.:3.735   3rd Qu.:212.7   3rd Qu.: 8.622  
##  Max.   :100.14   Max.   :4.468   Max.   :227.2   Max.   :14.313

Data summary now with categorical variables as factors, and a random variable for splitting the data

##      Store          Date            Weekly_Sales     Holiday_Flag
##  1      : 143   Length:6435        Min.   : 209986   0:5985      
##  2      : 143   Class :character   1st Qu.: 553350   1: 450      
##  3      : 143   Mode  :character   Median : 960746               
##  4      : 143                      Mean   :1046965               
##  5      : 143                      3rd Qu.:1420159               
##  6      : 143                      Max.   :3818686               
##  (Other):5577                                                    
##   Temperature       Fuel_Price         CPI         Unemployment   
##  Min.   : -2.06   Min.   :2.472   Min.   :126.1   Min.   : 3.879  
##  1st Qu.: 47.46   1st Qu.:2.933   1st Qu.:131.7   1st Qu.: 6.891  
##  Median : 62.67   Median :3.445   Median :182.6   Median : 7.874  
##  Mean   : 60.66   Mean   :3.359   Mean   :171.6   Mean   : 7.999  
##  3rd Qu.: 74.94   3rd Qu.:3.735   3rd Qu.:212.7   3rd Qu.: 8.622  
##  Max.   :100.14   Max.   :4.468   Max.   :227.2   Max.   :14.313  
##                                                                   
##      random         
##  Min.   :0.0002148  
##  1st Qu.:0.2483100  
##  Median :0.4991870  
##  Mean   :0.4983823  
##  3rd Qu.:0.7525012  
##  Max.   :0.9997906  
## 
Data split into 70/30, 4507 / 1928 training and validation datasets.

Linear Model to predict Sales

  1. A linear model was created using all variables except for Date, predicting Sales, which allowed for the understanding of the individual effects of each variable
  2. A second model was created using all possible variables, again, excluding Date
  3. A backward selection was done using Alpha = 0.01 in order to obtain a more parsimonious model.
  4. The resulting model with interactions, as well as the initial model without can be found in the Appendix
## Backward Elimination Method 
## ---------------------------
## 
## Candidate Terms: 
## 
## 1. Store 
## 2. Holiday_Flag 
## 3. Temperature 
## 4. Fuel_Price 
## 5. CPI 
## 6. Unemployment 
## 7. Store:Holiday_Flag 
## 8. Store:Temperature 
## 9. Store:Fuel_Price 
## 10. Store:CPI 
## 11. Store:Unemployment 
## 12. Holiday_Flag:Temperature 
## 13. Holiday_Flag:Fuel_Price 
## 14. Holiday_Flag:CPI 
## 15. Holiday_Flag:Unemployment 
## 16. Temperature:Fuel_Price 
## 17. Temperature:CPI 
## 18. Temperature:Unemployment 
## 19. Fuel_Price:CPI 
## 20. Fuel_Price:Unemployment 
## 21. CPI:Unemployment 
## 
## 
## Step   => 0 
## Model  => Weekly_Sales ~ Store + Holiday_Flag + Temperature + Fuel_Price + CPI + Unemployment + Store:Holiday_Flag + Store:Temperature + Store:Fuel_Price + Store:CPI + Store:Unemployment + Holiday_Flag:Temperature + Holiday_Flag:Fuel_Price + Holiday_Flag:CPI + Holiday_Flag:Unemployment + Temperature:Fuel_Price + Temperature:CPI + Temperature:Unemployment + Fuel_Price:CPI + Fuel_Price:Unemployment + CPI:Unemployment 
## R2     => 0.932 
## 
## Initiating stepwise selection... 
## 
## Step     => 1 
## Removed  => Holiday_Flag:CPI 
## Model    => Weekly_Sales ~ Store + Holiday_Flag + Temperature + Fuel_Price + CPI + Unemployment + Store:Holiday_Flag + Store:Temperature + Store:Fuel_Price + Store:CPI + Store:Unemployment + Holiday_Flag:Temperature + Holiday_Flag:Fuel_Price + Holiday_Flag:Unemployment + Temperature:Fuel_Price + Temperature:CPI + Temperature:Unemployment + Fuel_Price:CPI + Fuel_Price:Unemployment + CPI:Unemployment 
## R2       => 0.93243 
## 
## Step     => 2 
## Removed  => Fuel_Price:Unemployment 
## Model    => Weekly_Sales ~ Store + Holiday_Flag + Temperature + Fuel_Price + CPI + Unemployment + Store:Holiday_Flag + Store:Temperature + Store:Fuel_Price + Store:CPI + Store:Unemployment + Holiday_Flag:Temperature + Holiday_Flag:Fuel_Price + Holiday_Flag:Unemployment + Temperature:Fuel_Price + Temperature:CPI + Temperature:Unemployment + Fuel_Price:CPI + CPI:Unemployment 
## R2       => 0.93243 
## 
## Step     => 3 
## Removed  => Holiday_Flag:Unemployment 
## Model    => Weekly_Sales ~ Store + Holiday_Flag + Temperature + Fuel_Price + CPI + Unemployment + Store:Holiday_Flag + Store:Temperature + Store:Fuel_Price + Store:CPI + Store:Unemployment + Holiday_Flag:Temperature + Holiday_Flag:Fuel_Price + Temperature:Fuel_Price + Temperature:CPI + Temperature:Unemployment + Fuel_Price:CPI + CPI:Unemployment 
## R2       => 0.93243 
## 
## Step     => 4 
## Removed  => CPI:Unemployment 
## Model    => Weekly_Sales ~ Store + Holiday_Flag + Temperature + Fuel_Price + CPI + Unemployment + Store:Holiday_Flag + Store:Temperature + Store:Fuel_Price + Store:CPI + Store:Unemployment + Holiday_Flag:Temperature + Holiday_Flag:Fuel_Price + Temperature:Fuel_Price + Temperature:CPI + Temperature:Unemployment + Fuel_Price:CPI 
## R2       => 0.93242 
## 
## Step     => 5 
## Removed  => Unemployment 
## Model    => Weekly_Sales ~ Store + Holiday_Flag + Temperature + Fuel_Price + CPI + Store:Holiday_Flag + Store:Temperature + Store:Fuel_Price + Store:CPI + Store:Unemployment + Holiday_Flag:Temperature + Holiday_Flag:Fuel_Price + Temperature:Fuel_Price + Temperature:CPI + Temperature:Unemployment + Fuel_Price:CPI 
## R2       => 0.93242 
## 
## Step     => 6 
## Removed  => Holiday_Flag:Fuel_Price 
## Model    => Weekly_Sales ~ Store + Holiday_Flag + Temperature + Fuel_Price + CPI + Store:Holiday_Flag + Store:Temperature + Store:Fuel_Price + Store:CPI + Store:Unemployment + Holiday_Flag:Temperature + Temperature:Fuel_Price + Temperature:CPI + Temperature:Unemployment + Fuel_Price:CPI 
## R2       => 0.93241 
## 
## 
## No more variables to be removed.
## 
## Variables Removed: 
## 
## => Holiday_Flag:CPI 
## => Fuel_Price:Unemployment 
## => Holiday_Flag:Unemployment 
## => CPI:Unemployment 
## => Unemployment 
## => Holiday_Flag:Fuel_Price

Interpretations

  1. On average, holidays increase sales.
  2. On average, temperature had a negative effect on sales.
  3. On average, unemployment had a significant negative effect on sales.

The R squared of the data: 0.930996931104414

Appendix

Model without interactions

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = Weekly_Sales ~ . - Date, data = trainlm)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -533467  -69639  -12261   41102 1850228 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)    1380720.5   276197.5   4.999 5.98e-07 ***
## Store2          353691.9    22678.3  15.596  < 2e-16 ***
## Store3        -1187233.2    23191.4 -51.193  < 2e-16 ***
## Store4          717753.2   115913.7   6.192 6.47e-10 ***
## Store5        -1286925.1    23468.2 -54.837  < 2e-16 ***
## Store6          -20209.6    23052.4  -0.877 0.380709    
## Store7         -954039.3    35416.5 -26.938  < 2e-16 ***
## Store8         -723234.8    23774.4 -30.421  < 2e-16 ***
## Store9        -1068933.3    24190.9 -44.187  < 2e-16 ***
## Store10         583028.3   112104.4   5.201 2.07e-07 ***
## Store11        -221994.0    23379.3  -9.495  < 2e-16 ***
## Store12        -193774.3   105098.4  -1.844 0.065287 .  
## Store13         632661.8   113580.1   5.570 2.69e-08 ***
## Store14         560873.2    43152.7  12.997  < 2e-16 ***
## Store15        -735547.5   105133.5  -6.996 3.02e-12 ***
## Store16       -1040371.1    38746.8 -26.850  < 2e-16 ***
## Store17        -500702.1   114917.6  -4.357 1.35e-05 ***
## Store18        -259200.6   102757.5  -2.522 0.011689 *  
## Store19         103516.7   105182.5   0.984 0.325089    
## Store20         538295.9    25040.6  21.497  < 2e-16 ***
## Store21        -821757.6    22839.3 -35.980  < 2e-16 ***
## Store22        -355983.7    99480.8  -3.578 0.000349 ***
## Store23         -52411.9   112495.2  -0.466 0.641307    
## Store24          27414.2   104193.0   0.263 0.792478    
## Store25        -854486.3    26013.0 -32.848  < 2e-16 ***
## Store26        -360382.9   104550.4  -3.447 0.000572 ***
## Store27         393267.6   100390.9   3.917 9.09e-05 ***
## Store28         121350.9   105139.6   1.154 0.248484    
## Store29        -780537.5   100873.2  -7.738 1.24e-14 ***
## Store30       -1132341.0    23383.2 -48.425  < 2e-16 ***
## Store31        -175563.0    22842.0  -7.686 1.86e-14 ***
## Store32        -334458.7    34832.6  -9.602  < 2e-16 ***
## Store33       -1045299.2   111844.7  -9.346  < 2e-16 ***
## Store34        -332048.5   107349.4  -3.093 0.001993 ** 
## Store35        -426448.7    97867.9  -4.357 1.35e-05 ***
## Store36       -1187932.1    22587.1 -52.593  < 2e-16 ***
## Store37       -1042428.4    22894.0 -45.533  < 2e-16 ***
## Store38        -819971.3   105310.3  -7.786 8.53e-15 ***
## Store39        -104170.0    22603.3  -4.609 4.17e-06 ***
## Store40        -469702.4   112275.0  -4.184 2.93e-05 ***
## Store41        -268421.3    38035.2  -7.057 1.96e-12 ***
## Store42        -754110.7   112143.0  -6.725 1.98e-11 ***
## Store43        -865551.5    26371.0 -32.822  < 2e-16 ***
## Store44       -1075730.2   114124.4  -9.426  < 2e-16 ***
## Store45        -693613.5    43303.9 -16.017  < 2e-16 ***
## Holiday_Flag1    74352.9     9629.2   7.722 1.41e-14 ***
## Temperature       -919.6      160.2  -5.742 9.98e-09 ***
## Fuel_Price      -44897.9     8690.9  -5.166 2.49e-07 ***
## CPI               2591.5     1251.9   2.070 0.038509 *  
## Unemployment    -21796.7     5202.0  -4.190 2.84e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 161400 on 4457 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.9205, Adjusted R-squared:  0.9197 
## F-statistic:  1054 on 49 and 4457 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

Model with all interactions

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = paste(response, "~", paste(c(include, cterms), collapse = " + ")), 
##     data = l)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -709383  -57156   -9414   33147 1702286 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)               -1.282e+07  3.159e+06  -4.059 5.01e-05 ***
## Store2                    -6.639e+06  5.040e+06  -1.317 0.187793    
## Store3                     2.233e+06  3.988e+06   0.560 0.575484    
## Store4                     3.137e+06  5.957e+06   0.527 0.598552    
## Store5                     2.292e+06  3.877e+06   0.591 0.554402    
## Store6                    -5.117e+06  4.177e+06  -1.225 0.220669    
## Store7                    -4.066e+06  4.745e+06  -0.857 0.391571    
## Store8                     2.139e+06  3.698e+06   0.578 0.563003    
## Store9                     2.444e+06  4.247e+06   0.575 0.565016    
## Store10                    1.155e+07  6.065e+06   1.905 0.056910 .  
## Store11                   -1.300e+06  3.754e+06  -0.346 0.729194    
## Store12                    3.456e+06  5.103e+06   0.677 0.498258    
## Store13                    2.063e+07  8.561e+06   2.409 0.016031 *  
## Store14                    1.087e+07  2.957e+06   3.675 0.000241 ***
## Store15                    7.377e+06  2.745e+06   2.687 0.007240 ** 
## Store16                    3.583e+06  4.361e+06   0.821 0.411438    
## Store17                    9.649e+06  3.915e+06   2.465 0.013743 *  
## Store18                    4.354e+06  4.807e+06   0.906 0.365151    
## Store19                    7.491e+06  2.703e+06   2.772 0.005601 ** 
## Store20                    3.462e+06  2.802e+06   1.236 0.216634    
## Store21                   -5.346e+06  5.330e+06  -1.003 0.315923    
## Store22                    7.119e+06  4.426e+06   1.608 0.107872    
## Store23                    5.973e+06  5.577e+06   1.071 0.284231    
## Store24                    5.241e+06  2.993e+06   1.751 0.080015 .  
## Store25                    2.471e+06  2.881e+06   0.858 0.391151    
## Store26                    6.760e+06  5.471e+06   1.236 0.216695    
## Store27                    8.224e+06  2.795e+06   2.943 0.003273 ** 
## Store28                    3.582e+06  5.473e+06   0.654 0.512900    
## Store29                    5.548e+06  4.028e+06   1.378 0.168425    
## Store30                    5.976e+06  5.209e+06   1.147 0.251269    
## Store31                   -2.234e+06  5.289e+06  -0.422 0.672740    
## Store32                   -3.519e+06  4.461e+06  -0.789 0.430321    
## Store33                    5.998e+06  6.046e+06   0.992 0.321209    
## Store34                    3.965e+06  3.755e+06   1.056 0.291089    
## Store35                    7.546e+06  2.723e+06   2.771 0.005607 ** 
## Store36                    8.989e+06  4.783e+06   1.879 0.060257 .  
## Store37                    4.549e+06  5.403e+06   0.842 0.399818    
## Store38                    4.454e+06  4.867e+06   0.915 0.360184    
## Store39                   -5.174e+06  4.837e+06  -1.070 0.284858    
## Store40                    7.376e+06  5.483e+06   1.345 0.178586    
## Store41                   -8.465e+06  5.517e+06  -1.535 0.124976    
## Store42                    1.064e+07  6.449e+06   1.650 0.099056 .  
## Store43                    5.369e+06  3.131e+06   1.715 0.086420 .  
## Store44                    9.931e+06  8.753e+06   1.135 0.256590    
## Store45                    2.803e+06  2.914e+06   0.962 0.336043    
## Holiday_Flag1             -1.049e+04  7.315e+04  -0.143 0.886005    
## Temperature                6.086e+04  1.962e+04   3.101 0.001939 ** 
## Fuel_Price                 1.814e+06  6.642e+05   2.731 0.006331 ** 
## CPI                        6.754e+04  1.383e+04   4.883 1.08e-06 ***
## Store2:Holiday_Flag1       2.419e+04  8.750e+04   0.276 0.782214    
## Store3:Holiday_Flag1      -6.076e+04  9.215e+04  -0.659 0.509694    
## Store4:Holiday_Flag1      -1.517e+04  8.937e+04  -0.170 0.865253    
## Store5:Holiday_Flag1      -3.514e+04  8.373e+04  -0.420 0.674714    
## Store6:Holiday_Flag1       7.875e+04  8.907e+04   0.884 0.376645    
## Store7:Holiday_Flag1       9.110e+04  8.915e+04   1.022 0.306891    
## Store8:Holiday_Flag1       1.319e+04  8.807e+04   0.150 0.880935    
## Store9:Holiday_Flag1      -4.313e+04  9.481e+04  -0.455 0.649220    
## Store10:Holiday_Flag1      1.245e+05  8.970e+04   1.388 0.165162    
## Store11:Holiday_Flag1      1.956e+04  9.990e+04   0.196 0.844751    
## Store12:Holiday_Flag1      1.440e+04  8.378e+04   0.172 0.863569    
## Store13:Holiday_Flag1      1.906e+05  9.956e+04   1.914 0.055646 .  
## Store14:Holiday_Flag1      8.201e+04  8.670e+04   0.946 0.344267    
## Store15:Holiday_Flag1     -6.947e+04  8.731e+04  -0.796 0.426256    
## Store16:Holiday_Flag1      1.428e+04  8.527e+04   0.167 0.866995    
## Store17:Holiday_Flag1      8.476e+04  9.511e+04   0.891 0.372894    
## Store18:Holiday_Flag1     -1.553e+05  9.338e+04  -1.663 0.096345 .  
## Store19:Holiday_Flag1      1.074e+03  9.501e+04   0.011 0.990983    
## Store20:Holiday_Flag1      1.233e+05  8.997e+04   1.370 0.170719    
## Store21:Holiday_Flag1     -1.439e+05  9.611e+04  -1.497 0.134414    
## Store22:Holiday_Flag1      3.475e+04  8.535e+04   0.407 0.683964    
## Store23:Holiday_Flag1      2.703e+04  9.452e+04   0.286 0.774923    
## Store24:Holiday_Flag1      1.107e+05  8.912e+04   1.242 0.214284    
## Store25:Holiday_Flag1     -6.037e+04  9.453e+04  -0.639 0.523148    
## Store26:Holiday_Flag1      4.476e+04  9.286e+04   0.482 0.629796    
## Store27:Holiday_Flag1      7.763e+04  9.418e+04   0.824 0.409855    
## Store28:Holiday_Flag1      1.124e+05  8.960e+04   1.254 0.209853    
## Store29:Holiday_Flag1     -4.094e+04  8.741e+04  -0.468 0.639559    
## Store30:Holiday_Flag1     -8.858e+04  8.974e+04  -0.987 0.323706    
## Store31:Holiday_Flag1      5.501e+03  8.518e+04   0.065 0.948514    
## Store32:Holiday_Flag1     -8.911e+04  9.755e+04  -0.913 0.361054    
## Store33:Holiday_Flag1     -8.997e+04  8.755e+04  -1.028 0.304195    
## Store34:Holiday_Flag1      1.440e+04  9.539e+04   0.151 0.879973    
## Store35:Holiday_Flag1      2.354e+04  8.730e+04   0.270 0.787428    
## Store36:Holiday_Flag1     -8.176e+04  8.820e+04  -0.927 0.354002    
## Store37:Holiday_Flag1     -9.564e+04  8.947e+04  -1.069 0.285144    
## Store38:Holiday_Flag1     -7.967e+04  8.675e+04  -0.918 0.358526    
## Store39:Holiday_Flag1      1.582e+05  9.304e+04   1.700 0.089144 .  
## Store40:Holiday_Flag1     -3.896e+04  9.895e+04  -0.394 0.693830    
## Store41:Holiday_Flag1      9.422e+04  9.508e+04   0.991 0.321768    
## Store42:Holiday_Flag1     -6.284e+04  8.943e+04  -0.703 0.482261    
## Store43:Holiday_Flag1     -6.674e+04  8.979e+04  -0.743 0.457310    
## Store44:Holiday_Flag1     -6.998e+04  9.750e+04  -0.718 0.472950    
## Store45:Holiday_Flag1     -4.336e+04  8.705e+04  -0.498 0.618396    
## Store2:Temperature        -3.635e+02  1.638e+03  -0.222 0.824337    
## Store3:Temperature         2.673e+03  1.876e+03   1.425 0.154156    
## Store4:Temperature        -2.876e+04  8.312e+03  -3.460 0.000546 ***
## Store5:Temperature         2.030e+03  1.753e+03   1.158 0.246777    
## Store6:Temperature         8.096e+02  1.744e+03   0.464 0.642566    
## Store7:Temperature        -9.804e+02  2.519e+03  -0.389 0.697094    
## Store8:Temperature         2.182e+03  1.674e+03   1.304 0.192384    
## Store9:Temperature         2.761e+03  1.739e+03   1.588 0.112450    
## Store10:Temperature       -3.230e+04  8.149e+03  -3.964 7.48e-05 ***
## Store11:Temperature        6.914e+02  1.832e+03   0.377 0.705845    
## Store12:Temperature       -2.348e+04  7.736e+03  -3.035 0.002417 ** 
## Store13:Temperature       -2.688e+04  8.215e+03  -3.272 0.001075 ** 
## Store14:Temperature       -7.684e+03  3.146e+03  -2.443 0.014620 *  
## Store15:Temperature       -2.250e+04  7.604e+03  -2.959 0.003104 ** 
## Store16:Temperature       -2.914e+03  2.689e+03  -1.084 0.278631    
## Store17:Temperature       -2.446e+04  8.267e+03  -2.959 0.003108 ** 
## Store18:Temperature       -2.389e+04  7.477e+03  -3.196 0.001405 ** 
## Store19:Temperature       -2.406e+04  7.604e+03  -3.165 0.001564 ** 
## Store20:Temperature       -2.730e+03  1.773e+03  -1.540 0.123701    
## Store21:Temperature        2.502e+03  1.624e+03   1.540 0.123543    
## Store22:Temperature       -1.998e+04  7.219e+03  -2.767 0.005674 ** 
## Store23:Temperature       -2.362e+04  7.995e+03  -2.954 0.003157 ** 
## Store24:Temperature       -2.142e+04  7.547e+03  -2.838 0.004564 ** 
## Store25:Temperature       -2.335e+02  1.842e+03  -0.127 0.899132    
## Store26:Temperature       -2.075e+04  7.557e+03  -2.746 0.006056 ** 
## Store27:Temperature       -1.648e+04  7.264e+03  -2.269 0.023310 *  
## Store28:Temperature       -2.480e+04  7.728e+03  -3.209 0.001340 ** 
## Store29:Temperature       -2.159e+04  7.374e+03  -2.928 0.003435 ** 
## Store30:Temperature        2.537e+03  1.635e+03   1.551 0.120891    
## Store31:Temperature        1.002e+03  1.637e+03   0.612 0.540448    
## Store32:Temperature       -3.731e+03  2.459e+03  -1.517 0.129241    
## Store33:Temperature       -2.350e+04  8.090e+03  -2.905 0.003693 ** 
## Store34:Temperature       -2.346e+04  7.772e+03  -3.018 0.002559 ** 
## Store35:Temperature       -1.842e+04  7.088e+03  -2.599 0.009393 ** 
## Store36:Temperature        3.050e+03  1.865e+03   1.635 0.102095    
## Store37:Temperature        1.947e+03  1.903e+03   1.023 0.306185    
## Store38:Temperature       -2.092e+04  7.732e+03  -2.705 0.006849 ** 
## Store39:Temperature        3.976e+03  1.824e+03   2.180 0.029280 *  
## Store40:Temperature       -2.379e+04  7.985e+03  -2.980 0.002900 ** 
## Store41:Temperature       -2.731e+03  2.638e+03  -1.035 0.300646    
## Store42:Temperature       -2.475e+04  8.137e+03  -3.042 0.002368 ** 
## Store43:Temperature        2.765e+03  1.953e+03   1.416 0.156888    
## Store44:Temperature       -2.398e+04  8.234e+03  -2.912 0.003612 ** 
## Store45:Temperature       -7.486e+03  3.167e+03  -2.363 0.018150 *  
## Store2:Fuel_Price         -2.682e+05  9.154e+04  -2.930 0.003413 ** 
## Store3:Fuel_Price          6.528e+04  1.019e+05   0.641 0.521769    
## Store4:Fuel_Price         -8.975e+05  2.837e+05  -3.164 0.001569 ** 
## Store5:Fuel_Price          2.734e+04  9.030e+04   0.303 0.762108    
## Store6:Fuel_Price         -1.387e+05  8.999e+04  -1.542 0.123240    
## Store7:Fuel_Price         -1.385e+05  1.143e+05  -1.212 0.225660    
## Store8:Fuel_Price          6.621e+04  9.128e+04   0.725 0.468236    
## Store9:Fuel_Price          6.944e+04  1.007e+05   0.689 0.490677    
## Store10:Fuel_Price        -7.406e+05  2.830e+05  -2.617 0.008892 ** 
## Store11:Fuel_Price        -9.295e+04  1.038e+05  -0.895 0.370659    
## Store12:Fuel_Price        -8.313e+05  2.848e+05  -2.919 0.003535 ** 
## Store13:Fuel_Price        -6.162e+05  2.931e+05  -2.102 0.035580 *  
## Store14:Fuel_Price        -1.269e+05  1.320e+05  -0.961 0.336646    
## Store15:Fuel_Price        -6.921e+05  2.661e+05  -2.601 0.009324 ** 
## Store16:Fuel_Price        -1.916e+05  1.225e+05  -1.565 0.117758    
## Store17:Fuel_Price        -5.819e+05  2.879e+05  -2.021 0.043367 *  
## Store18:Fuel_Price        -8.841e+05  2.655e+05  -3.330 0.000876 ***
## Store19:Fuel_Price        -8.031e+05  2.655e+05  -3.025 0.002500 ** 
## Store20:Fuel_Price        -1.070e+05  9.109e+04  -1.175 0.240255    
## Store21:Fuel_Price        -4.948e+04  9.227e+04  -0.536 0.591806    
## Store22:Fuel_Price        -7.040e+05  2.543e+05  -2.768 0.005668 ** 
## Store23:Fuel_Price        -8.619e+05  2.638e+05  -3.267 0.001097 ** 
## Store24:Fuel_Price        -8.311e+05  2.631e+05  -3.158 0.001598 ** 
## Store25:Fuel_Price        -1.163e+05  9.620e+04  -1.209 0.226756    
## Store26:Fuel_Price        -7.618e+05  2.652e+05  -2.872 0.004093 ** 
## Store27:Fuel_Price        -8.130e+05  2.569e+05  -3.165 0.001563 ** 
## Store28:Fuel_Price        -8.965e+05  2.865e+05  -3.129 0.001765 ** 
## Store29:Fuel_Price        -7.350e+05  2.635e+05  -2.789 0.005311 ** 
## Store30:Fuel_Price         2.318e+04  9.235e+04   0.251 0.801800    
## Store31:Fuel_Price         2.155e+04  9.414e+04   0.229 0.818961    
## Store32:Fuel_Price        -1.562e+05  1.107e+05  -1.410 0.158466    
## Store33:Fuel_Price        -7.853e+05  2.821e+05  -2.784 0.005398 ** 
## Store34:Fuel_Price        -8.560e+05  2.850e+05  -3.004 0.002683 ** 
## Store35:Fuel_Price        -7.178e+05  2.529e+05  -2.839 0.004551 ** 
## Store36:Fuel_Price         3.950e+04  9.348e+04   0.423 0.672660    
## Store37:Fuel_Price         3.703e+04  1.027e+05   0.361 0.718334    
## Store38:Fuel_Price        -7.753e+05  2.835e+05  -2.734 0.006275 ** 
## Store39:Fuel_Price        -9.050e+04  9.488e+04  -0.954 0.340252    
## Store40:Fuel_Price        -7.548e+05  2.649e+05  -2.849 0.004403 ** 
## Store41:Fuel_Price        -6.281e+04  1.147e+05  -0.547 0.584130    
## Store42:Fuel_Price        -7.226e+05  2.821e+05  -2.561 0.010459 *  
## Store43:Fuel_Price        -5.752e+03  1.088e+05  -0.053 0.957836    
## Store44:Fuel_Price        -7.196e+05  2.928e+05  -2.458 0.014023 *  
## Store45:Fuel_Price        -1.918e+05  1.304e+05  -1.471 0.141344    
## Store2:CPI                 3.169e+04  1.992e+04   1.591 0.111708    
## Store3:CPI                -1.479e+04  1.572e+04  -0.941 0.346865    
## Store4:CPI                 3.284e+04  4.220e+04   0.778 0.436493    
## Store5:CPI                -1.485e+04  1.506e+04  -0.986 0.324166    
## Store6:CPI                 2.052e+04  1.651e+04   1.243 0.214040    
## Store7:CPI                 1.408e+04  1.901e+04   0.741 0.458732    
## Store8:CPI                -1.264e+04  1.438e+04  -0.880 0.379146    
## Store9:CPI                -1.551e+04  1.693e+04  -0.917 0.359440    
## Store10:CPI               -3.799e+04  4.154e+04  -0.915 0.360454    
## Store11:CPI                4.138e+03  1.482e+04   0.279 0.780110    
## Store12:CPI                1.413e+04  3.535e+04   0.400 0.689402    
## Store13:CPI               -1.024e+05  6.097e+04  -1.680 0.093048 .  
## Store14:CPI               -6.025e+04  1.159e+04  -5.199 2.10e-07 ***
## Store15:CPI               -2.533e+04  1.740e+04  -1.456 0.145593    
## Store16:CPI               -1.455e+04  1.687e+04  -0.862 0.388564    
## Store17:CPI               -3.587e+04  2.480e+04  -1.446 0.148114    
## Store18:CPI                7.101e+03  2.750e+04   0.258 0.796279    
## Store19:CPI               -1.050e+04  1.743e+04  -0.602 0.547124    
## Store20:CPI               -6.208e+03  1.105e+04  -0.562 0.574305    
## Store21:CPI                1.506e+04  2.107e+04   0.715 0.474936    
## Store22:CPI               -1.510e+04  2.451e+04  -0.616 0.537843    
## Store23:CPI                2.053e+03  3.379e+04   0.061 0.951556    
## Store24:CPI                5.883e+03  2.304e+04   0.255 0.798458    
## Store25:CPI               -9.676e+03  1.130e+04  -0.857 0.391768    
## Store26:CPI               -9.586e+03  2.883e+04  -0.332 0.739576    
## Store27:CPI               -1.740e+04  1.890e+04  -0.921 0.357174    
## Store28:CPI                1.826e+04  3.860e+04   0.473 0.636080    
## Store29:CPI               -8.098e+03  2.274e+04  -0.356 0.721752    
## Store30:CPI               -2.927e+04  2.059e+04  -1.422 0.155135    
## Store31:CPI                6.198e+03  2.091e+04   0.296 0.766881    
## Store32:CPI                1.499e+04  1.771e+04   0.846 0.397566    
## Store33:CPI               -1.150e+04  4.180e+04  -0.275 0.783268    
## Store34:CPI                9.895e+03  2.352e+04   0.421 0.674053    
## Store35:CPI               -4.369e+04  1.509e+04  -2.895 0.003808 ** 
## Store36:CPI               -4.400e+04  1.932e+04  -2.277 0.022816 *  
## Store37:CPI               -2.350e+04  2.207e+04  -1.065 0.287001    
## Store38:CPI                1.015e+03  3.374e+04   0.030 0.976003    
## Store39:CPI                2.210e+04  1.966e+04   1.124 0.261063    
## Store40:CPI               -1.396e+04  3.342e+04  -0.418 0.676166    
## Store41:CPI                3.504e+04  2.174e+04   1.612 0.106993    
## Store42:CPI               -4.183e+04  4.411e+04  -0.948 0.343025    
## Store43:CPI               -2.555e+04  1.303e+04  -1.961 0.049922 *  
## Store44:CPI               -3.952e+04  6.278e+04  -0.630 0.529010    
## Store45:CPI               -1.733e+04  1.130e+04  -1.533 0.125299    
## Store1:Unemployment        8.923e+04  7.922e+04   1.126 0.260083    
## Store2:Unemployment        2.279e+05  1.107e+05   2.058 0.039642 *  
## Store3:Unemployment        8.913e+03  9.650e+04   0.092 0.926414    
## Store4:Unemployment        6.669e+03  4.804e+04   0.139 0.889584    
## Store5:Unemployment        9.436e+03  1.117e+05   0.084 0.932705    
## Store6:Unemployment        2.507e+05  1.001e+05   2.505 0.012295 *  
## Store7:Unemployment        2.321e+05  1.211e+05   1.917 0.055357 .  
## Store8:Unemployment        2.507e+04  1.092e+05   0.230 0.818402    
## Store9:Unemployment        1.367e+04  1.096e+05   0.125 0.900750    
## Store10:Unemployment       4.937e+04  7.231e+04   0.683 0.494834    
## Store11:Unemployment       1.463e+05  9.289e+04   1.575 0.115227    
## Store12:Unemployment       6.335e+04  4.344e+04   1.458 0.144851    
## Store13:Unemployment      -1.667e+05  1.022e+05  -1.631 0.102876    
## Store14:Unemployment       3.371e+05  1.544e+05   2.183 0.029074 *  
## Store15:Unemployment       1.106e+05  1.146e+05   0.964 0.334879    
## Store16:Unemployment       4.663e+03  1.626e+05   0.029 0.977129    
## Store17:Unemployment      -1.888e+04  7.165e+04  -0.264 0.792171    
## Store18:Unemployment       8.490e+04  1.105e+05   0.768 0.442513    
## Store19:Unemployment       1.003e+04  1.189e+05   0.084 0.932764    
## Store20:Unemployment      -4.676e+04  8.393e+04  -0.557 0.577462    
## Store21:Unemployment       2.571e+05  1.169e+05   2.198 0.027980 *  
## Store22:Unemployment       4.355e+03  1.126e+05   0.039 0.969144    
## Store23:Unemployment      -2.548e+04  1.473e+05  -0.173 0.862648    
## Store24:Unemployment      -2.828e+02  1.217e+05  -0.002 0.998146    
## Store25:Unemployment      -1.545e+04  9.008e+04  -0.172 0.863781    
## Store26:Unemployment      -1.150e+04  1.742e+05  -0.066 0.947377    
## Store27:Unemployment       2.323e+04  1.337e+05   0.174 0.862056    
## Store28:Unemployment       6.216e+04  4.519e+04   1.376 0.169003    
## Store29:Unemployment       4.717e+04  7.608e+04   0.620 0.535287    
## Store30:Unemployment      -4.560e+04  1.137e+05  -0.401 0.688496    
## Store31:Unemployment       1.673e+05  1.167e+05   1.434 0.151685    
## Store32:Unemployment       2.396e+05  1.133e+05   2.114 0.034576 *  
## Store33:Unemployment       5.467e+04  6.719e+04   0.814 0.415848    
## Store34:Unemployment       7.311e+04  5.263e+04   1.389 0.164881    
## Store35:Unemployment       3.954e+05  1.094e+05   3.615 0.000304 ***
## Store36:Unemployment      -4.464e+04  9.330e+04  -0.479 0.632311    
## Store37:Unemployment      -1.055e+04  1.018e+05  -0.104 0.917482    
## Store38:Unemployment       4.007e+04  4.071e+04   0.984 0.325036    
## Store39:Unemployment       1.321e+05  9.183e+04   1.438 0.150443    
## Store40:Unemployment      -2.801e+04  1.419e+05  -0.197 0.843564    
## Store41:Unemployment       4.029e+05  1.771e+05   2.275 0.022963 *  
## Store42:Unemployment      -1.376e+04  8.006e+04  -0.172 0.863520    
## Store43:Unemployment      -2.421e+04  5.734e+04  -0.422 0.672827    
## Store44:Unemployment      -1.161e+04  9.866e+04  -0.118 0.906368    
## Store45:Unemployment       2.267e+05  1.586e+05   1.430 0.152915    
## Holiday_Flag1:Temperature  1.455e+03  5.478e+02   2.656 0.007938 ** 
## Temperature:Fuel_Price     2.273e+03  6.838e+02   3.324 0.000894 ***
## Temperature:CPI           -3.074e+02  9.087e+01  -3.383 0.000723 ***
## Temperature:Unemployment  -6.557e+02  3.636e+02  -1.803 0.071384 .  
## Fuel_Price:CPI            -9.335e+03  3.062e+03  -3.049 0.002311 ** 
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 152800 on 4232 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.9324, Adjusted R-squared:  0.928 
## F-statistic: 213.1 on 274 and 4232 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16