Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update
Introduction
We have updated data and forecasts for: Algeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, Colombia, DR Congo, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Jamaica, Kenya, Mali, Nicaragua, Senegal, Tanzania, Zimbabwe. We are forecasting major events for Benin and Kenya.
In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.
We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.
MLP Website: here
PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)
Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here
New Shock Detection Algorithm and Summarization Method
Since the last update for these countries, we have implemented a new shock detection algorithm to identify major events. This new algorithm integrates statistical and machine learning methods to identify major jumps in reporting on each event. This new approach is better able to detect events happening on the ground from disturbances in the volume of reporting. We have also integrated a new method of summarizing major events detected in our data since the last update. This new method uses GPT4 to summarize all articles from our database reporting on an event in months when we detect a shock. However, we use human supervision to ensure these AI summaries are accurate.
Colombia
For Colombia, our data includes coverage through the end of January 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of October 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
- Purge in December: The head of the National Agency for Legal Defence of the State resigned amid internal disputes, and the mayor of Cali was suspended due to allegations of irregularities, disrupting local administration. Other government officials faced suspension and disqualification for mishandling responsibilities or failing to explain personal wealth increases. Allegations of harassment and misconduct led to dismissals and resignations in regulatory and cultural departments. A cabinet reshuffling included defense and foreign affairs.
- Security Mobilization in January: Forces were mobilized along the Colombia-Ecuador border to counteract cross-border crime. A significant police presence was mobilized at cultural events in Barranquilla and Pasto. The Valle del Cauca governor’s invoked the military of Tulua in response local violence. The government increased the number of professional soldiers by 16,000. Finally, the national police coordinated to ensure safe travel for the Reyes Magos holiday.
Forecasting
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.
Ecuador
For Ecuador, our data includes coverage through the end of January 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:
- Lethal Violence in December: A university shooting claimed numerous lives, indicating critical security lapses. Accidental gang-related deaths of children and other civilians across various regions, including a tragic family murder, underscored the dire state of public safety and the pervasive reach of organized crime. Violent acts extended into traditionally safe spaces like religious venues, adding to the toll. The year concluded with a marked increase in violence, highlighting a pressing crisis as violent deaths soared
- Censor in January: In January 2024, Ecuador’s National Assembly censured a former minister for neglecting to support vulnerable populations, highlighting accountability issues within the government. Moreover, a criminal attack on a television station in Guayaquil during a live broadcast brought to light the precarious situation for media workers, stressing significant concerns for press freedom in the country.
- Security Mobilization in January: Over 1,100 officers were deployed in a nationwide sweep of prisons to control contraband crises, complemented by a targeted raid in Guayaquil’s prison to disrupt gang operations. An increase in military patrols across key locations aimed to bolster national security amid rising violence. The direct intervention at a media station post-hostage situation and neighboring countries bolstering their borders highlighted the acute security challenges and their regional impact. Steps to secure an air base for high-profile deportations, ramped-up patrols around educational institutions, US military cooperation on maritime security, and enhanced airport measures were all part of an escalated effort to address the broader spectrum of safety threats and criminal activities afflicting Ecuador.
- Raid in January: Ecuador in January 2024 faced a series of targeted raids and security operations spanning from a high-profile armed attack on a television station, underscoring media vulnerabilities, to strategic anti-terrorism interventions. Law enforcement also dismantled illegal operations, from a clandestine airstrip to a slaughterhouse, in a concerted effort to disrupt trafficking networks and enforce public health standards. Actions against organized crime included the seizure of weapons, drugs, and gang-related arrests, with a focus on confiscating illegal arms to curb violence. Despite these efforts, instances like a gas station robbery indicate that challenges with opportunistic crime persist
Forecasting
In our last update, our shock models predicted a spike in reporting on Legal Changes in Q1 2024. Although we saw a jump in reporting on Legal Changes in December and January, this jump did not qualify as a shock according to our new shock detection algorithm. The adoption of this new method makes it difficult to directly compare past forecasts with our updated data.
Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.