Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Author

DevLab@Penn

Published

March 6, 2024

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for: Algeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, Colombia, DR Congo, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Jamaica, Kenya, Mali, Nicaragua, Senegal, Tanzania, Zimbabwe.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Civic Space Early Warning System

New Shock Detection Algorithm and Summarization Method

Since the last update for these countries, we have implemented a new shock detection algorithm to identify major events. This new algorithm integrates statistical and machine learning methods to identify major jumps in reporting on each event. This new approach is better able to detect events happening on the ground from disturbances in the volume of reporting. We have also integrated a new method of summarizing major events detected in our data since the last update. This new method uses GPT4 to summarize all articles from our database reporting on an event in months when we detect a shock. However, we use human supervision to ensure these AI summaries are accurate.

New Country: Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso is a new country. Our data includes coverage through the end of January 2024. Over the last three months, we saw increases in reporting on:

Legal Change in December: The country saw the presentation of a draft Constitution to the Transitional Legislative Assembly. The judiciary evaluated amendments focusing on reinforcing the justice system’s integrity, with the Supreme Council of the Judiciary voicing specific concerns.
Raid in December: A joint operation with Mali neutralized terrorists and disrupted a training camp near the border. A raid was conducted on a major political party’s headquarters. Further, army units executed raids against drug and oil traffickers to sever financial streams for terrorist activities.
Legal Change in January: A comprehensive constitutional reform was adopted by a vast majority of parliament, reshaping the nation’s legal and political infrastructure. Fiscal changes were introduced, including a levy on earnings across all sectors and the President forgoing his salary to support national funds. The Supreme Council of the Judiciary’s critiqued of the constitutional changes and civil society groups advocated for health law revisions.

Forecasting

Our updated models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Algeria

For Algeria, our data includes coverage through January 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of October 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

Legal Action in November: High-profile figures were sentenced to four years in prison for corruption charges linked to the Constantine air terminal contract. In a separate case, the Supreme Court dismissed an appeal from the brother of the former president, in a major corruption case. Additionally,the former Minister of Solidarity received a 10-year sentence in total from the Algerian Judicial Council for corruption, while Louisa Hannan of the Workers’ Party was convicted in a defamation case.
Legal Change in November: The Algerian National People’s Assembly enacted several legislative reforms aiming to refine governance and promote development. Key amendments include overhauling the Organic Law on Finance to improve budgeting efficiency and introducing a new law to encourage private investment in real estate. Press Law reforms now require less experience for media leadership, fostering journalistic freedom. To regulate audio-visual production, a draft law was introduced, updating media laws for technological changes. An Arab version of the Morán Law was presented, assisting victims of French nuclear tests. The 2024 Finance Act, detailing the national budget, prioritizes public investment. New legislation enhances disaster resilience and sustainable development, while other amendments strengthen money laundering and terrorism financing prevention.
Legal Change in December: The Finance Act of 2024 was signed into law, marking a crucial economic development, while proposed amendments to the monetary and banking law target the black market in hard currency and aim to boost foreign investment. Reforms in the civil servants’ sector are set to improve wages and social conditions. Progress on an immigration bill signals a shift in policy, potentially affecting national ideological stances. Support for the national media has been strengthened through financial measures, and the National Education Corps’ legal status has been updated. A new law to combat forgery has been ratified, enhancing competition and service integrity. The legal framework for press and audio-visual activities has been established, aligning with constitutional principles. Revisions to the Community Code are underway to promote municipal solidarity, while proposals to amend the penal code reflect a commitment to international human rights, particularly concerning the death penalty.

Forecasting

In our last two reports, our standard models have predicted a small increase in the Civic Space Index in Q1 2024. Consistent with this forecast, we saw an increase in the CSI driven by increased reporting on Legal Actions.

Our updated models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Benin

For Benin, our data includes coverage through the end of January 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of August 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

Raid in November: An informal settlement was dismantled by the Republican police in the Saint Cecile neighborhood of Cotonou on October 27, 2023.
Non-lethal Violence in November: The military ramped up its offensive operations in the north to address the escalating threat from armed groups, reflecting a proactive stance against terrorism.
Activism in December: Political activists from the opposition faced government scrutiny, highlighting the ongoing tensions within the country’s political landscape. Human rights concerns were brought to the fore by Amnesty International, which criticized the government’s urban beautification program for resulting in thousands of forced evictions. Regionally, NGOs called for ECOWAS to ease sanctions and establish a humanitarian corridor to mitigate the consequences of political actions in the region.
Legal Action in December: Benin’s CRIT took substantial legal action against a variety of economic and cybercrimes. Twenty-seven individuals were sentenced for online fraud, with others, including a former MP, facing potential ten-year terms for banking fraud. The judiciary’s anti-corruption efforts were highlighted by significant sentences for a customs officer and a Bank of Africa employee for abuse of office, money laundering, and fund diversion. Corruption investigations reached into public infrastructure, and preventive detention orders were issued for impersonation and abuse of office within law enforcement. A civil society activist was fined, reflecting the legal hurdles for political expression. A police officer and accomplice were sentenced in a mobile money scam, and La Poste du Benin officials were tried for embezzlement
Lethal Violence in December: December 2023 in Benin was marked by lethal violence, with a significant attack by armed groups in the north using an IED against military personnel, reflecting ongoing instability in the region. The media community was also impacted, with a reported increase in journalists killed in conflict zones, highlighting the perilous conditions they face. Additional incidents included a fatal encounter involving security forces in Cobly.
Legal Change in January: January 2024 was dominated by vigorous debate on constitutional reform, with widespread public engagement and political contention. The National Assembly’s Law Commission blocked an amnesty law proposal for exiled politicians, stalling reconciliation initiatives. However, a new development planning law was unanimously passed. Benin also advanced new anti-money laundering measures. Electoral code revisions were initiated to meet the Constitutional Court’s directives for the 2026 elections. Tax sector reforms were confirmed successful, dispelling rumors of new wage taxes. Government officials navigated the charged atmosphere, denying draft revisions of the constitution and correcting misinterpretations related to it, while opposition parties firmly opposed constitutional amendments before the next general elections, voicing concerns over their implications.

Forecasting

Our updated models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Colombia

Colombia’s results are password protected. Please email for access.

DR Congo

For DR Congo, our data includes coverage through the end of January 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

Security Mobilization in November: In November 2023, the Democratic Republic of the Congo saw heightened security operations with the launch of Operation Springbok to address rebel activity in North Kivu. The EU demonstrated its commitment to the DRC’s democratic stability by deploying election observers, while the national army engaged rebels with targeted actions. Congolese police forces prepared to maintain order for the elections. Additionally, volunteer university students began paramilitary training, reflecting local efforts to bolster security. Community-driven initiatives in Bukavu aimed to curb gang violence, and the Congolese National Police in Mbandaka focused on order enhancement.
Security Mobilization in December: South African SADC troops arrived in Goma to counter regional aggression, while other East African Community forces began withdrawing, reshaping the regional security landscape. In Kinshasa, police mobilization aimed to control protests demanding election cancellations. The FARDC’s presence in Uvira and the phased exit of Kenyan and Burundian soldiers from Goma signaled strategic military adjustments. The Ugandan contingent’s withdrawal from North Kivu further scaled down regional military involvement. Congolese National Police heightened security measures for the elections, and church-led and SADC electoral observation missions underscored societal and regional commitments to fair elections.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Ecuador

Ecuador’s results are password protected. Please email for access.

Ethiopia

For Ethiopia, our data includes coverage through the end of December 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

Legal Change in October: The National Bank of Ethiopia supported amendments to the VAT Proclamation, easing tax issues for mobile money services. A new ICT security law introduced technology import regulations, prioritizing national security. A directive for securities registration with the Ethiopian Capital Market Authority laid the groundwork for formalizing the capital market. Deliberations on a military non-disclosure agreement with Russia indicated strengthening military cooperation. The directive for local sales of export-quality coffee aimed to boost sector profitability under governmental supervision. A policy shift allowed foreign exporters to use revenues for imports, incentivizing the export sector. The proposed property tax and the agreement for fertilizer supply with a Moroccan firm underscored efforts to secure agricultural productivity and adjust fiscal policies. Regulations on public offerings and trading of securities were refined to regulate market operations. The Ministry of Justice’s briefing on transitional justice to EU diplomats signaled commitment to national reconciliation.

Forecasting

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Ethiopia.

Guatemala

For Guatemala, our data includes coverage through the end of January 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of October 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

Raid in November: Actions were taken against political groups, suggesting political pressure and opposition suppression. A major crackdown on organized crime aimed to dismantle gangs involved in extortion and targeted killings, with extensive operations spanning several regions. Corruption within the healthcare sector was also a focal point, with raids seeking evidence of fraudulent procurement practices. Efforts to combat extortion were emphasized with a significant number of raids seeking suspects. Legal measures against academic protesters raised concerns over potential civil liberties restrictions.
Purge in January: Guatemala underwent a phase of political and institutional restructuring, with the President abolishing the previous anti-corruption commission. Major political parties faced internal realignments with the expulsion of members, while key government figures in aviation, energy, and legal sectors were replaced or resigned, reflecting shifts in administrative control and policy emphasis. The introduction of a legislative initiative aimed at altering the procedure for the removal of legal officials suggests impending changes to the nation’s judicial structure. Furthermore, the sweeping removal of officials within the Ministry of Communications signals an aggressive approach to institutional reform, as part of the current administration’s broader strategy to redefine governance and consolidate power.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Jamaica

For Jamaica, our data includes coverage through the end of January 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of August 2023, we did not detect any major events.

Forcasting

In our last update, our shock models predicted a spike in reporting on Legal Changes in Q1 2024. We did not see a jump in reporting on Legal Changes in January. However, we may yet observe a spike in February or March. The adoption of this new method makes it difficult to directly compare past forecasts with our updated data.

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Kenya

For Kenya, our data includes coverage through the end of January 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of October 2023, we did not detect any major events.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Mali

For Mali, our data includes coverage through the end of January 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of October 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

Corruption in December: Extensive anti-corruption measures resulted in the seizure of assets worth 1,200 billion CFA from an investigation into illicit enrichment. Reports identified considerable financial irregularities stretching over years in various sectors, including agriculture and municipal management. The launch of a national anti-corruption strategy and the identification of new billionaires among civil servants highlighted the depth of the corruption problem. Individual instances of high-level corruption and project-based mismanagement were flagged, revealing the extent of fiscal mismanagement. Critiques of the justice system’s impartiality in anti-corruption efforts underscored concerns over enforcement and political influence.

Forecasting

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Mali.

Nicaragua

For Nicaragua, our data includes coverage through the end of January 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of October 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

Purge in November: Over 900 officials were dismissed, including high-ranking judicial figures, signaling a direct imposition by the ruling regime on the judiciary’s independence. The leadership of the Ministry of the Family underwent abrupt changes, reflecting the regime’s tight grip on governmental appointments. The legal status of numerous NGOs was revoked, curtailing civil society and consolidating the regime’s power. The dismissal of Supreme Court justices continued, underscoring the effort to reshape the judiciary.
Corruption in December: In a significant clampdown between 2021 and 2023, the Nicaraguan government revoked the legal status of 30 universities and various civil organizations, citing financial non-compliance as justification. This action, which included the cancellation of a notable evangelical university’s legal personality, has impacted educational rights and raised concerns about the autonomy of institutions. A member of an evangelical non-profit was arrested for money laundering, reflecting the state’s strict measures against NGOs. Further, an additional 10 organizations were dissolved by ministerial agreement, as part of a broader campaign to regulate civil society.
Purge in December: The government canceled the legal status of ten NGOs, disrupting civil society and opposition groups. Diplomatic strains with Argentina led to the withdrawal of Nicaragua’s ambassador, impacting bilateral relations. The expulsion of the International Committee of the Red Cross marked a dismissal of international human rights oversight.
Non-lethal Violence in December: Reports highlighted a year of sustained human rights violations against hundreds of political prisoners, with a record number of attacks specifically targeting the Catholic Church. Public safety issues were marked by a rise in gun-related injuries and various violent crimes, including thefts and assaults, demonstrating an ongoing struggle with crime and insecurity. The kidnapping of a businessman and his son by police forces and a major theft from an armored truck showcased the pervasive atmosphere of intimidation and criminality.

Forecasting

In our last update, our shock models predicted a spike in reporting on Arrests in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. Although we saw a small jump in reporting on Arrests in December, this jump did not qualify as a shock according to our new shock detection algorithm. The adoption of this new method makes it difficult to directly compare past forecasts with our updated data.

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Senegal

For Senegal, our data includes coverage through the end of January 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of October 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

Legal Action in December: The Supreme Court prepared to hear a significant political cases, including controversies around electoral lists and long-standing political disputes. Former public officials were charged with offenses against the state and false news dissemination. A major drug bust reflected the nation’s active engagement in countering international drug trafficking. Defamation suits and charges involving allegations of diamond trafficking entangled legal and political realms.
Legal Action in January: The Constitutional Council’s disqualification of a presidential candidate sparked controversy and parliamentary scrutiny over the electoral process. The Supreme Court upheld a significant sentence in a defamation case involving an opposition leader. Multiple presidential candidates faced legal hurdles, with one detained and another sentenced for submitting fraudulent candidacy documents, raising concerns about electoral equity. The Supreme Court’s dismissal of an appeal concerning the electoral commission’s composition has implications for the upcoming election. Corporate legal strife continued with a new hearing for a financial services company executive. Civic and political figures remained detained, with denied requests for provisional release, indicating ongoing legal pressure in the public sphere. A mayor came under fire over a financial misconduct case, and the media landscape saw defamation trials and charges, underscoring freedom of speech issues. In entertainment, a humorist was acquitted in a defamation case, highlighting the intersection of legal issues with public image and reputation.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Tanzania

For Tanzania, our data includes coverage through the end of January 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

Legal Action in November: The Court of Appeal in Arusha contested the acquittal of a high-profile individual in an armed robbery case. Financial integrity was upheld by preventing the garnishment of accounts related to a significant hydropower project. The government took a firm stance on agricultural disputes involving pastoralists. The PCCB delved into project fund discrepancies in Kagera Region, reinforcing the fight against corruption. Parliament discussed forming an inquiry into public fund embezzlement, and the judiciary demonstrated its stance on internal organizational disputes and commercial litigation within the telecommunications sector. Regional energy development and environmental governance came into focus with the dismissal of a legal challenge against an oil pipeline project.
Activism in December: Relief efforts in Hanang District following mudslides saw over 2.2 billion TZS raised, demonstrating a significant mobilization for disaster response. Advocacy for women and girls with disabilities in leadership was a focus in Dodoma. Community support in Moduli District provided aid to the elderly, while anti-drug initiatives in Tanga emphasized education and collaboration. Nationwide, capacity-building for civil society on e-procurement aimed to enhance public spending transparency. Human rights groups in Mbeya were called upon to address violations against boys and men. The agriculture sector saw strategic support with the launch of a new regulatory authority for cereals. The National Arts Council engaged artists in supporting flood victims in Hanang, reflecting the art community’s active role in disaster aid. Government restorative efforts were also noted in Hanang, with successful housing restoration for disaster victims.
Lethal Violence in December: The murder of two security guards in Geita prompted questions about the adequacy of private security.
Legal Change in January: New investment laws led to a surge in project registrations, reflecting a more conducive climate for investors. Electoral reform bills were introduced. Governance reforms in parastatals aimed to increase public sector efficiency, while the implementation of universal health insurance legislation promised wider healthcare access. There were calls for amendments to ensure voter involvement even in uncontested elections and for legal protections to support women’s active participation in politics, highlighting a drive towards inclusive governance.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Zimbabwe

For Zimbabwe, our data includes coverage through the end of January 2024. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

Activism in November: ActionAid Zimbabwe launched a climate justice plan addressing the impact of climate change on at-risk communities, underscoring the need for global economic powers to take action. Human rights groups sought to establish a citizens’ movement through national dialogue in response to the political tension post-elections. Youths rallied for adolescent health and well-being, aligning with a significant global advocacy campaign. Additionally, a school-led initiative aimed at cholera prevention demonstrated community-level efforts in public health education.
Legal Action in November: The president of the Zimbabwe Miners Federation was convicted of a gold smuggling attempt, while a former deputy minister and associates faced sentences for evading customs duty on a large diesel quantity. Bail was granted in a fraud case involving substantial funds linked to a former Reserve Bank advisor. The High Court overturned an obstruction conviction for an opposition politician, and a retired judge was appointed to investigate a sitting judge’s conduct.
Raid in November: A government agency conducted a raid on an opposition party’s headquarters. Efforts to curb smuggling were evident at a major border post, resulting in the seizure of vehicles and goods, underscoring the government’s commitment to economic regulations and environmental considerations.
Activism in December: The Accountability Lab focused on drug abuse among urban youth, pointing to gaps in government data and policy effectiveness. Gender-based violence was underscored during the 16 Days of Activism, noting the lack of support for affected women and girls. Community efforts were evident in Bulawayo, with food distributions to the vulnerable during Christmas by a local church, and a Victoria Falls NGO trained church leaders on handling domestic violence. Conservation efforts addressed the tension between wildlife laws and local hunting traditions. Pageant winners in Gwanda committed to combatting teenage drug abuse, utilizing their influence for public health advocacy.
Raid in December: Arrests were made in a major fraud case involving the hacking of the Hwange Electricity Supply Company’s accounts, while a crackdown in Bulawayo led to 30 arrests related to drug trafficking. A rally supporting an opposition politician was blocked, reflecting heightened government-opposition tensions.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.