Hassan_Aleena_Homework

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# List of packages
packages <- c("tidyverse", "infer", "fst", "modelsummary", "effects", "survey", "interactions", "broom") # add any you need here

# Install packages if they aren't installed already
new_packages <- packages[!(packages %in% installed.packages()[,"Package"])]
if(length(new_packages)) install.packages(new_packages)

# Load the packages
lapply(packages, library, character.only = TRUE)

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#Task 1 #Graph the histogram distribution using the populist scale (as we did in the tutorial) for the country of Sweden. What do you note?

sweden_data <- read.fst("sweden_data.fst")

# Populist scale (Norris/Inglehart use low levels of trust in parliaments, politicians and parties as an indicator of populism)

# Note: Schafer does it 2 ways, we will focus now on the most straightforward

# Setting values greater than 10 to NA
sweden_data$trstplt <- ifelse(sweden_data$trstplt > 10, NA, sweden_data$trstplt)
sweden_data$trstprl <- ifelse(sweden_data$trstprl > 10, NA, sweden_data$trstprl)
sweden_data$trstprt <- ifelse(sweden_data$trstprt > 10, NA, sweden_data$trstprt)

# Creating and rescaling the trust variable
sweden_data$trust <- scales::rescale(sweden_data$trstplt + sweden_data$trstprl + sweden_data$trstprt, na.rm = TRUE, to = c(0, 100))

# Here's how you would "flip it" because populist is conceived by N + I as 'anti-trust'
# As Schafer explains there are some issues with that conceptualization, but N + I is also widely applied
sweden_data$populist <- scales::rescale(sweden_data$trust, na.rm = TRUE, to=c(100,0))

ggplot(sweden_data, aes(x = populist)) +
  geom_histogram(bins = 30, fill = "blue", color = "black") +
  theme_minimal() +
  labs(title = "Distribution of Populist Scale for Sweden",
       x = "Populist Scale",
       y = "Count")

## Warning: Removed 2503 rows containing non-finite values (`stat_bin()`).

Interpreation: By looking at the histogram, it is evident that most people have lower levels of trust in the government. This is because there is a wide range of people on the left sight of he graph but not many on the right. it can also be seen that the graph is rightly skewed. Additionally, this also tells us that there ae more people less interested in populism.

#Task 2: #Run a linear regression with populist attitudes as the outcome, educational attainment (recoded as a binary “BA or more” and “No BA”), and using the Swedish data. Print the intercept and coefficients only and interpret. Then do a tidy model table displaying the p-value (with digits = 3) and interpret.

sweden_data <- read.fst("sweden_data.fst")

# Populist scale (Norris/Inglehart use low levels of trust in parliaments, politicians and parties as an indicator of populism)

# Note: Schafer does it 2 ways, we will focus now on the most straightforward

# Setting values greater than 10 to NA
sweden_data$trstplt <- ifelse(sweden_data$trstplt > 10, NA, sweden_data$trstplt)
sweden_data$trstprl <- ifelse(sweden_data$trstprl > 10, NA, sweden_data$trstprl)
sweden_data$trstprt <- ifelse(sweden_data$trstprt > 10, NA, sweden_data$trstprt)

# Creating and rescaling the trust variable
sweden_data$trust <- scales::rescale(sweden_data$trstplt + sweden_data$trstprl + sweden_data$trstprt, na.rm = TRUE, to = c(0, 100))

# Here's how you would "flip it" because populist is conceived by N + I as 'anti-trust'
# As Schafer explains there are some issues with that conceptualization, but N + I is also widely applied
sweden_data$populist <- scales::rescale(sweden_data$trust, na.rm = TRUE, to=c(100,0))

#recoding educ.ba
linear_data <- sweden_data %>%
  mutate(
 # Recoding education
    educ.ba = case_when(
      essround < 5 & edulvla == 5 ~ "BA or more",
      essround >= 5 & edulvlb > 600 ~ "BA or more",
      TRUE ~ "No BA"
    ),
    
    # Handle NAs for education levels
    edulvla = ifelse(edulvla %in% c(77, 88, 99), NA_integer_, edulvla),
    edulvlb = ifelse(edulvlb %in% c(5555, 7777, 8888), NA_integer_, edulvlb),
    
    # Explicitly making 'No BA' the reference category
    educ.ba = factor(educ.ba, levels = c("No BA", "BA or more"))
  )



sweden_edu_pop <- lm(populist ~ educ.ba, data = linear_data)
coefficients_linear <- coef(sweden_edu_pop)
print(coefficients_linear)

##       (Intercept) educ.baBA or more 
##         51.358680         -7.868121

Interpretation: the intercept, 51.34, represents the average score on the populist scale for the reference group in Sweden, which is individuals with “No BA.” In simpler terms, the expected average populist scale score would be 51.34 for individuals with no BA. This score indicates a certain level of populism, where higher scores suggest populist attitudes. On th other hand, the coefficient, -7.96, associated with the “BA or more” groups indicates that, on average, individuals who identify with a BA degree or more in Sweden have populist scale scores that are -7.96 points lower than those who identify as no BA.

tidy(sweden_edu_pop)

## # A tibble: 2 × 5
##   term              estimate std.error statistic   p.value
##   <chr>                <dbl>     <dbl>     <dbl>     <dbl>
## 1 (Intercept)          51.4      0.181     283.  0        
## 2 educ.baBA or more    -7.87     0.350     -22.5 2.58e-110

tidy_table <- tidy(sweden_edu_pop) %>%
  mutate(p.value = format.pval(p.value, digits = 3))

print(tidy_table)

## # A tibble: 2 × 5
##   term              estimate std.error statistic p.value
##   <chr>                <dbl>     <dbl>     <dbl> <chr>  
## 1 (Intercept)          51.4      0.181     283.  <2e-16 
## 2 educ.baBA or more    -7.87     0.350     -22.5 <2e-16

summary(sweden_edu_pop)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = populist ~ educ.ba, data = linear_data)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -51.359 -14.692  -1.359  11.975  56.509 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                   Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)        51.3587     0.1812  283.36   <2e-16 ***
## educ.baBA or more  -7.8681     0.3498  -22.49   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 19.43 on 15711 degrees of freedom
##   (2503 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.0312, Adjusted R-squared:  0.03114 
## F-statistic:   506 on 1 and 15711 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

Interpretation: In this case we can see that the p-value is 2.2e-16 which is incredibly small, therefore we can conclude that there is strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis. Therefore, suggesting that there is a significant relationship between the education level and the likelihood of supporting populist views in Sweden

#Task 3 #Now using the Italian dataset and the authoritarian values scale (as we did in the tutorial), graph the average by survey year. Interpret.

italy_data <- read.fst("italy_data.fst")

df <- read.fst("italy_data.fst")
## Creates an authoritarian values scale based on human modules items (can also do libertarian value scale)
df <- df %>%
  mutate(behave = ipbhprp,
         secure = impsafe,
         safety = ipstrgv,
         tradition = imptrad,
         rules = ipfrule) %>%
  mutate(across(c("behave", "secure", "safety", "tradition", "rules"),
                ~ na_if(.x, 7) %>% na_if(8) %>% na_if(9))) %>%
  # Apply the reverse coding
  mutate(across(c("behave", "secure", "safety", "tradition", "rules"), ~ 7 - .x ))

# Now you can calculate 'schwartzauth' after the NA recoding
df$auth <- scales::rescale(df$behave + 
                      df$secure + 
                      df$safety + 
                      df$tradition + 
                      df$rules, to=c(0,100), na.rm=TRUE)

df <- df %>% filter(!is.na(auth))
table(df$secure)

## 
##    1    2    3    4    5    6 
##   54  139  626 1856 2876 2881

table(df$auth)

## 
##   0  12  16  20  24  28  32  36  40  44  48  52  56  60  64  68  72  76  80  84 
##   7   4   4   9  13  20  27  57 113 155 163 323 367 596 647 789 823 897 992 733 
##  88  92  96 100 
## 632 465 299 297

ggplot(df, aes(x = auth)) +
  geom_histogram(bins = 30, fill = "blue", color = "black") +
  theme_minimal() +
  labs(title = "Distribution of Authoritarian Scale for Italy",
       x = "Authoritarian Scale",
       y = "Count")

df$year <- NA
replacements <- c(2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020)
for(i in 1:10){
  df$year[df$essround == i] <- replacements[i]
}
auth_avg <- df %>%
  group_by(year) %>%
  summarize(auth_avg = mean(auth, na.rm = TRUE))

plot_auth <- ggplot(auth_avg, aes(x = year, y = auth_avg)) +
  geom_point(aes(color = auth_avg), alpha = 1.0) + 
  geom_line(aes(group = 1), color = "blue", linetype = "dashed") +  
  labs(title = "Authoritarian Scale Average by Year (Italy)",
       x = "Survey Year",
       y = "Authoritarian Scale Average") +
  theme_minimal() +
  theme(legend.position = "none") +
  scale_y_continuous(limits = c(0, 100))

print(plot_auth)

Interpretation: As can be seen from the graph, it is a very steady line between the authoritarian scale average by year in Italy. Starting from 2012 to 205 it is quite steady however it starts dropping a little bit and hits it’s lowest point in 2016, however it rises again and by 2020 reaches is the same point it started from. The lowest point of the average looks like it hit 70 while the highest looks like 75 therefore showing the minor difference.

#Task 4 #Now run a linear regression model, using the modelsummary package, with authoritarian values as the outcome, and generations as the predictor/potential explanatory variable, and using the Italian data again. Rename the coefficients using the coef_rename function. Interpret the coefficients, whether they are statistically significant, and the adjusted R-squared.

df <- read.fst("italy_data.fst")
## Creates an authoritarian values scale based on human modules items (can also do libertarian value scale)
df <- df %>%
  mutate(behave = ipbhprp,
         secure = impsafe,
         safety = ipstrgv,
         tradition = imptrad,
         rules = ipfrule) %>%
  mutate(across(c("behave", "secure", "safety", "tradition", "rules"),
                ~ na_if(.x, 7) %>% na_if(8) %>% na_if(9))) %>%
  # Apply the reverse coding
  mutate(across(c("behave", "secure", "safety", "tradition", "rules"), ~ 7 - .x ))

# Now you can calculate 'schwartzauth' after the NA recoding
df$auth <- scales::rescale(df$behave + 
                      df$secure + 
                      df$safety + 
                      df$tradition + 
                      df$rules, to=c(0,100), na.rm=TRUE)


df <- df %>% filter(!is.na(auth))
table(df$secure)

## 
##    1    2    3    4    5    6 
##   54  139  626 1856 2876 2881

model_data <- df %>%
  mutate(
    # Recoding cohort variable, setting years before 1930 and after 2000 to NA
    cohort = ifelse(yrbrn < 1930 | yrbrn > 2000, NA, yrbrn),
    # Recoding generational cohorts based on year of birth
    gen = case_when(
      yrbrn %in% 1900:1945 ~ "1",
      yrbrn %in% 1946:1964 ~ "2",
      yrbrn %in% 1965:1979 ~ "3",
      yrbrn %in% 1980:1996 ~ "4",
      TRUE ~ as.character(cohort)  # Keeping other values as character if they do not fit the ranges
    ),

    # Converting cohort to a factor with labels
    gen = factor(gen,
                 levels = c("1", "2", "3", "4"),
                 labels = c("Interwar", "Baby Boomers", "Gen X", "Millennials"))
  )
table(model_data$gen)

## 
##     Interwar Baby Boomers        Gen X  Millennials 
##         1026         2580         2214         1811

model1 <- lm(auth ~ gen, data = model_data)

modelsummary(
  list(model1),
  fmt = 1,
  estimate  = c( "{estimate} ({std.error}){stars}"),
  statistic = NULL,
  coef_rename = c("genBaby Boomers" = "Baby Boomers", "genGen X" = "Gen X", "genMillennials" = "Millennials"),
  title = 'Table1. Regression model for authoritarian attitudes')

Table1. Regression model for authoritarian attitudes
	(1)
(Intercept)	75.3 (0.5)***
Baby Boomers	−1.1 (0.6)*
Gen X	−2.1 (0.6)***
Millennials	−3.6 (0.6)***
Num.Obs.	7631
R2	0.006
R2 Adj.	0.006
AIC	62934.0
BIC	62968.7
Log.Lik.	−31462.009
RMSE	14.94

Interpretation of coefficitients:

Baby Boomers (-1.1, p<0.001): Compared to the Interwar generation, Baby Boomers exhibit scores that are, on average, 1.1 points lower on the authoritarian values scale (0-100). The one asterisks (*) denote statistical significance of 0.05 which is at the exact level as the p-value.

Gen X (-2.1, p<0.0001): Generation X shows an even more pronounced decrease, with sscores 2.1 points lower than the interwar generation on the authoritarian values scale. The triple asterisks (***) denote statistical significance at a very low p-value (under our alpha threshold of 0.05).

Millennials (-3.6, p<0.001): Millennial exhibit the most considerable decrease in authoritarian values, with their scores being 3.6 points lower then those of the interwar generation. This marked difference is statistically significant, indication that millennials diverge most strongly from the interwar generation in comparing their authoritatian values. Again, the asterisks (***)

Interpreation of adjusted R-squared: The adjusted R-squared value of 0.006 means that the ‘gen’ variable (with our four coded generations) explain approximately 0.6% of the variance in the authoritarian values scale for Italy, after accounting for the number of predictors (just one in this case). While statistically significant, this suggests that the model explains a very small portion of the variability in authoritarian values, pointing to other factors outside generational differences that may play critical roles in shaping these attitudes.

#task 5 #Now visualize, using the modelplot() function from the modelsummary package, coefficient estimates and 95% confidence intervals for the following three models:

#Model 1 = populist attitudes scale as the outcome; left/right as the single predictor (omitting moderates as we did in the tutorial), and using data for Greece.

#Model 2 = populist attitudes scale as the outcome; gender as the single predictor, and using data for Greece.

#Model 3 = populist attitudes scale as the outcome; generations as the single predictor (using the four generational category recode we did in the tutorial), and using data for Greece. Interpret.

greece_data <- read.fst("greece_data.fst")
# Populist scale (Norris/Inglehart use low levels of trust in parliaments, politicians and parties as an indicator of populism)

# Note: Schafer does it 2 ways, we will focus now on the most straightforward

# Setting values greater than 10 to NA
greece_data$trstplt <- ifelse(greece_data$trstplt > 10, NA, greece_data$trstplt)
greece_data$trstprl <- ifelse(greece_data$trstprl > 10, NA, greece_data$trstprl)
greece_data$trstprt <- ifelse(greece_data$trstprt > 10, NA, greece_data$trstprt)

# Creating and rescaling the trust variable
greece_data$trust <- scales::rescale(greece_data$trstplt + greece_data$trstprl + greece_data$trstprt, na.rm = TRUE, to = c(0, 100))

# Here's how you would "flip it" because populist is conceived by N + I as 'anti-trust'
# As Schafer explains there are some issues with that conceptualization, but N + I is also widely applied
greece_data$populist <- scales::rescale(greece_data$trust, na.rm = TRUE, to=c(100,0))
ggplot(greece_data, aes(x = populist)) +
  geom_histogram(bins = 30, fill = "blue", color = "black") +
  theme_minimal() +
  labs(title = "Distribution of Populist Scale for Greece",
       x = "Populist Scale",
       y = "Count")

## Warning: Removed 2735 rows containing non-finite values (`stat_bin()`).

model_data <- greece_data %>%
  mutate(
    # Recoding gender
    gndr = case_when(
      gndr == 1 ~ "Male",
      gndr == 2 ~ "Female",
      gndr == 9 ~ NA_character_,
      TRUE ~ as.character(gndr)
    ),
    
    lrscale = case_when(
      lrscale %in% 0:4 ~ "Left",                     # This time: Values 0 to 3 in 'lrscale' are categorized as "Left"
      lrscale %in% 6:10 ~ "Right",                   # This time: Values 6 to 10 in 'lrscale' are categorized as "Right"
      lrscale %in% c(77, 88, 99) ~ NA_character_,    # Values 77, 88, 99 in 'lrscale' are set as NA
      TRUE ~ NA_character_                           # Any other values not explicitly matched above
    ),
    
    # Recoding cohort variable, setting years before 1930 and after 2000 to NA
    cohort = ifelse(yrbrn < 1930 | yrbrn > 2000, NA, yrbrn),

    # Recoding generational cohorts based on year of birth
    gen = case_when(
      yrbrn %in% 1900:1945 ~ "1",
      yrbrn %in% 1946:1964 ~ "2",
      yrbrn %in% 1965:1979 ~ "3",
      yrbrn %in% 1980:1996 ~ "4",
      TRUE ~ as.character(cohort)  # Keeping other values as character if they do not fit the ranges
    ),

    # Converting cohort to a factor with labels
    gen = factor(gen,
                 levels = c("1", "2", "3", "4"),
                 labels = c("Interwar", "Baby Boomers", "Gen X", "Millennials"))
  )
table(model_data$gen)

## 
##     Interwar Baby Boomers        Gen X  Millennials 
##         2978         3484         3498         2330

model1 <- lm(populist ~ lrscale, data = model_data)
model2 <- lm(populist ~ gndr, data = model_data)
model3 <- lm(populist ~ gen, data = model_data)

models <- list(
   "Model 1" = lm(populist ~ lrscale, data = model_data),
   "Model 2" = lm(populist ~ gndr, data = model_data),
   "Model 3" = lm(populist ~ gen, data = model_data))
modelsummary(models, fmt = 1,
  estimate  = c("{estimate} ({std.error}){stars}",
                "{estimate} ({std.error}){stars}",
                "{estimate} ({std.error}){stars}"),
  statistic = NULL)

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3
(Intercept)	72.0 (0.5)***	70.0 (0.3)***	65.8 (0.5)***
lrscaleRight	−8.8 (0.6)***
gndrMale		−1.0 (0.5)*
genBaby Boomers			3.5 (0.7)***
genGen X			5.6 (0.7)***
genMillennials			5.8 (0.7)***
Num.Obs.	4936	9823	9562
R2	0.037	0.000	0.009
R2 Adj.	0.036	0.000	0.009
AIC	44723.8	88873.2	86473.9
BIC	44743.3	88894.8	86509.7
Log.Lik.	−22358.894	−44433.590	−43231.944
RMSE	22.44	22.30	22.25

modelplot(models, coef_omit = 'Interc')

Interpretation of coefficients: Baby Boomers: Compared to the Interwar generation (reference category that is omitted), Baby Boomers exhibit scores that are, on average, 3.5 points higher on the authoritarian values scale (0-100). The triple asterisks (***) denote statistical significance at a very low p-value (under our alpha threshold of 0.05).

Gen X: Generation X shows an even more pronounced decrease, with scores 5.6 points higher than the Interwar generation on the authoritarian values scale. Again, the triple asterisks (***) denote statistical significance at a very low p-value (under our alpha threshold of 0.05)

Millennials : Millennials exhibit the most considerable decrease in authoritarian values, with their scores being 5.8 points higher than those of the Interwar generation. This marked difference is statistically significant, indicating that Millennials diverge least strongly from the Interwar generation in comparing their authoritarian values.

Interpretation of R-squared: The adjusted R-squared value of 0.009 means that the ‘gen’ variable (with our four coded generations) explain approximately 0.9% of the variance in the authoritarian values scale for Greece, after accounting for the number of predictors (just one in this case). While statistically significant, this suggests that the model explains only a small portion of the variability in authoritarian values, pointing to other factors outside generational differences that may play critical roles in shaping these attitudes.

Interpretation of lrscale: Male, relative to female, is not statistically significant. left/right model shows statistical significance, with staying in the “right” group (relative to the reference category of “Left”) holding a score which is, on average, 8.8 points lower on the authoritarian value scale (of 0-100). However, the variance explained is only 0.9%, which is even lower than the generations model.

Hassan_Aleena_Homework_4

2024-03-16

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