packages <- c("tidyverse", "infer", "fst", "modelsummary", "effects", "survey", "interactions") # add any you need here

new_packages <- packages[!(packages %in% installed.packages()[,"Package"])]
if(length(new_packages)) install.packages(new_packages)

lapply(packages, library, character.only = TRUE)
## ── Attaching core tidyverse packages ──────────────────────── tidyverse 2.0.0 ──
## ✔ dplyr     1.1.4     ✔ readr     2.1.5
## ✔ forcats   1.0.0     ✔ stringr   1.5.1
## ✔ ggplot2   3.4.4     ✔ tibble    3.2.1
## ✔ lubridate 1.9.3     ✔ tidyr     1.3.0
## ✔ purrr     1.0.2     
## ── Conflicts ────────────────────────────────────────── tidyverse_conflicts() ──
## ✖ dplyr::filter() masks stats::filter()
## ✖ dplyr::lag()    masks stats::lag()
## ℹ Use the conflicted package (<http://conflicted.r-lib.org/>) to force all conflicts to become errors
## Warning: package 'infer' was built under R version 4.3.3
## Warning: package 'effects' was built under R version 4.3.3
## Loading required package: carData
## Warning: package 'carData' was built under R version 4.3.3
## lattice theme set by effectsTheme()
## See ?effectsTheme for details.
## Warning: package 'survey' was built under R version 4.3.3
## Loading required package: grid
## Loading required package: Matrix
## 
## Attaching package: 'Matrix'
## 
## The following objects are masked from 'package:tidyr':
## 
##     expand, pack, unpack
## 
## Loading required package: survival
## 
## Attaching package: 'survey'
## 
## The following object is masked from 'package:graphics':
## 
##     dotchart
## Warning: package 'interactions' was built under R version 4.3.3
## [[1]]
##  [1] "lubridate" "forcats"   "stringr"   "dplyr"     "purrr"     "readr"    
##  [7] "tidyr"     "tibble"    "ggplot2"   "tidyverse" "stats"     "graphics" 
## [13] "grDevices" "utils"     "datasets"  "methods"   "base"     
## 
## [[2]]
##  [1] "infer"     "lubridate" "forcats"   "stringr"   "dplyr"     "purrr"    
##  [7] "readr"     "tidyr"     "tibble"    "ggplot2"   "tidyverse" "stats"    
## [13] "graphics"  "grDevices" "utils"     "datasets"  "methods"   "base"     
## 
## [[3]]
##  [1] "fst"       "infer"     "lubridate" "forcats"   "stringr"   "dplyr"    
##  [7] "purrr"     "readr"     "tidyr"     "tibble"    "ggplot2"   "tidyverse"
## [13] "stats"     "graphics"  "grDevices" "utils"     "datasets"  "methods"  
## [19] "base"     
## 
## [[4]]
##  [1] "modelsummary" "fst"          "infer"        "lubridate"    "forcats"     
##  [6] "stringr"      "dplyr"        "purrr"        "readr"        "tidyr"       
## [11] "tibble"       "ggplot2"      "tidyverse"    "stats"        "graphics"    
## [16] "grDevices"    "utils"        "datasets"     "methods"      "base"        
## 
## [[5]]
##  [1] "effects"      "carData"      "modelsummary" "fst"          "infer"       
##  [6] "lubridate"    "forcats"      "stringr"      "dplyr"        "purrr"       
## [11] "readr"        "tidyr"        "tibble"       "ggplot2"      "tidyverse"   
## [16] "stats"        "graphics"     "grDevices"    "utils"        "datasets"    
## [21] "methods"      "base"        
## 
## [[6]]
##  [1] "survey"       "survival"     "Matrix"       "grid"         "effects"     
##  [6] "carData"      "modelsummary" "fst"          "infer"        "lubridate"   
## [11] "forcats"      "stringr"      "dplyr"        "purrr"        "readr"       
## [16] "tidyr"        "tibble"       "ggplot2"      "tidyverse"    "stats"       
## [21] "graphics"     "grDevices"    "utils"        "datasets"     "methods"     
## [26] "base"        
## 
## [[7]]
##  [1] "interactions" "survey"       "survival"     "Matrix"       "grid"        
##  [6] "effects"      "carData"      "modelsummary" "fst"          "infer"       
## [11] "lubridate"    "forcats"      "stringr"      "dplyr"        "purrr"       
## [16] "readr"        "tidyr"        "tibble"       "ggplot2"      "tidyverse"   
## [21] "stats"        "graphics"     "grDevices"    "utils"        "datasets"    
## [26] "methods"      "base"
sweden_data <- read.fst("sweden_data.fst")
italy_data <- read.fst("italy_data.fst")
greece_data <- read.fst("greece_data.fst")

##Task 1

Graph the histogram distribution using the populist scale (as we did in the tutorial) for the country of Sweden. What do you note?

sweden_data$trstplt <- ifelse(sweden_data$trstplt > 10, NA, sweden_data$trstplt)
sweden_data$trstprl <- ifelse(sweden_data$trstprl > 10, NA, sweden_data$trstprl)
sweden_data$trstprt <- ifelse(sweden_data$trstprt > 10, NA, sweden_data$trstprt)

sweden_data$trust <- scales::rescale(sweden_data$trstplt + sweden_data$trstprl + sweden_data$trstprt, na.rm = TRUE, to = c(0, 100))

sweden_data$populist <- scales::rescale(sweden_data$trust, na.rm = TRUE, to=c(100,0))
ggplot(sweden_data, aes(x = populist)) +
  geom_histogram(bins = 30, fill = "pink", color = "purple") +
  theme_minimal() +
  labs(title = "Distribution of Populist Scale for Sweden",
       x = "Populist Scale",
       y = "Count")
## Warning: Removed 2503 rows containing non-finite values (`stat_bin()`).

Answer: The histogram distribution is slightly skewed right. Generally, there are lower counts of very high or very low levels of populism. Lower-mid levels of populism is most common.

##Task 2

Run a linear regression with populist attitudes as the outcome, educational attainment (recoded as a binary “BA or more” and “No BA”), and using the Swedish data. Print the intercept and coefficients only and interpret. Then do a tidy model table displaying the p-value (with digits = 3) and interpret.

sweden_data <- sweden_data %>%
  mutate(
    educ.ba = case_when(
      essround < 5 & edulvla == 5 ~ "BA or more",
      essround >= 5 & edulvlb > 600 ~ "BA or more",
      TRUE ~ "No BA"
    ),
    
    edulvla = ifelse(edulvla %in% c(77, 88, 99), NA_integer_, edulvla),
    edulvlb = ifelse(edulvlb %in% c(5555, 7777, 8888), NA_integer_, edulvlb),
    
    educ.ba = factor(educ.ba, levels = c("No BA", "BA or more"))
  )
sweden_pop_model <- lm(populist ~ educ.ba, data = sweden_data)
coefficients_sweden <- coef(sweden_pop_model)
print(coefficients_sweden)
##       (Intercept) educ.baBA or more 
##         51.358680         -7.868121
broom::tidy 
## Registered S3 methods overwritten by 'broom':
##   method            from  
##   tidy.glht         jtools
##   tidy.summary.glht jtools
## function (x, ...) 
## {
##     UseMethod("tidy")
## }
## <bytecode: 0x000001a899d53838>
## <environment: namespace:generics>
tidy(sweden_pop_model)
## # A tibble: 2 × 5
##   term              estimate std.error statistic   p.value
##   <chr>                <dbl>     <dbl>     <dbl>     <dbl>
## 1 (Intercept)          51.4      0.181     283.  0        
## 2 educ.baBA or more    -7.87     0.350     -22.5 2.58e-110
tidy(sweden_pop_model) |>
knitr::kable(digits = 3)
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
(Intercept) 51.359 0.181 283.363 0
educ.baBA or more -7.868 0.350 -22.494 0 
summary(sweden_pop_model)
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = populist ~ educ.ba, data = sweden_data)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -51.359 -14.692  -1.359  11.975  56.509 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                   Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)        51.3587     0.1812  283.36   <2e-16 ***
## educ.baBA or more  -7.8681     0.3498  -22.49   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 19.43 on 15711 degrees of freedom
##   (2503 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared:  0.0312, Adjusted R-squared:  0.03114 
## F-statistic:   506 on 1 and 15711 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

Answer: Those with a BA or more are approximately 7.87 lower on the populist scale than those who have received less education. Additionally, the predicted populist level is 51.36 when the education level is zero.

##Task 3

Now using the Italian dataset and the authoritarian values scale (as we did in the tutorial), graph the average by survey year. Interpret.

df <- read.fst("italy_data.fst")

df <- df %>%
  mutate(behave = ipbhprp,
         secure = impsafe,
         safety = ipstrgv,
         tradition = imptrad,
         rules = ipfrule) %>%
  mutate(across(c("behave", "secure", "safety", "tradition", "rules"),
                ~ na_if(.x, 7) %>% na_if(8) %>% na_if(9))) %>%
  mutate(across(c("behave", "secure", "safety", "tradition", "rules"), ~ 7 - .x ))

df$auth <- scales::rescale(df$behave + 
                      df$secure + 
                      df$safety + 
                      df$tradition + 
                      df$rules, to=c(0,100), na.rm=TRUE)


df <- df %>% filter(!is.na(auth))
table(df$secure)
## 
##    1    2    3    4    5    6 
##   54  139  626 1856 2876 2881
table(df$auth)
## 
##   0  12  16  20  24  28  32  36  40  44  48  52  56  60  64  68  72  76  80  84 
##   7   4   4   9  13  20  27  57 113 155 163 323 367 596 647 789 823 897 992 733 
##  88  92  96 100 
## 632 465 299 297
ggplot(df, aes(x = auth)) +
  geom_histogram(bins = 30, fill = "green", color = "black") +
  theme_minimal() +
  labs(title = "Distribution of Authoritarian Scale for italy",
       x = "Authoritarian Scale",
       y = "Count")

df$year <- NA
replacements <- c(2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020)
for(i in 1:10){
  df$year[df$essround == i] <- replacements[i]
}
auth_avg <- df %>%
  group_by(year) %>%
  summarize(auth_avg = mean(auth, na.rm = TRUE))

plot_auth <- ggplot(auth_avg, aes(x = year, y = auth_avg)) +
  geom_point(aes(color = auth_avg), alpha = 1.0) + 
  geom_line(aes(group = 1), color = "blue", linetype = "dashed") +  
  labs(title = "Authoritarian Scale Average by Year (italy)",
       x = "Survey Year",
       y = "Authoritarian Scale Average") +
  theme_minimal() +
  theme(legend.position = "none") +
  scale_y_continuous(limits = c(0, 100))

print(plot_auth)

Answer: There are small fluctuations in the average.

##Task 4

Now run a linear regression model, using the modelsummary package, with authoritarian values as the outcome, and generations as the predictor/potential explanatory variable, and using the Italian data again. Rename the coefficients using the coef_rename function. Interpret the coefficients, whether they are statistically significant, and the adjusted R-squared.

model_data <- df %>%
  mutate(
    # Recoding gender
    gndr = case_when(
      gndr == 1 ~ "Male",
      gndr == 2 ~ "Female",
      gndr == 9 ~ NA_character_,
      TRUE ~ as.character(gndr)
    ),

 # Recoding education
    educ.ba = case_when(
      essround < 5 & edulvla == 5 ~ "BA or more",
      essround >= 5 & edulvlb > 600 ~ "BA or more",
      TRUE ~ "No BA"
    ),
    
    # Handle NAs for education levels
    edulvla = ifelse(edulvla %in% c(77, 88, 99), NA_integer_, edulvla),
    edulvlb = ifelse(edulvlb %in% c(5555, 7777, 8888), NA_integer_, edulvlb),
    
    # Explicitly making 'No BA' the reference category
    educ.ba = factor(educ.ba, levels = c("No BA", "BA or more")),

    # Recoding age, setting 999 to NA
    age = ifelse(agea == 999, NA, agea),

    # Recoding cohort variable, setting years before 1930 and after 2000 to NA
    cohort = ifelse(yrbrn < 1930 | yrbrn > 2000, NA, yrbrn),

    # Recoding generational cohorts based on year of birth
    gen = case_when(
      yrbrn %in% 1900:1945 ~ "1",
      yrbrn %in% 1946:1964 ~ "2",
      yrbrn %in% 1965:1979 ~ "3",
      yrbrn %in% 1980:1996 ~ "4",
      TRUE ~ as.character(cohort)  # Keeping other values as character if they do not fit the ranges
    ),

    # Converting cohort to a factor with labels
    gen = factor(gen,
                 levels = c("1", "2", "3", "4"),
                 labels = c("Interwar", "Baby Boomers", "Gen X", "Millennials"))
  )
table(model_data$gen)
## 
##     Interwar Baby Boomers        Gen X  Millennials 
##         1026         2580         2214         1811
model1 <- lm(auth ~ gen, data = model_data)
models <- list(
   "model 1" = lm(auth ~ gen, data = model_data))
modelsummary(models, fmt = 1,
  estimate  = c("{estimate} ({std.error}){stars}"),
  statistic = NULL,
  coef_rename = c("genBaby Boomers" = "Baby Boomers", "genGen X" = "Gen X", "genMillennials" = "Millennials"),
  title = 'Table 2. Regression models for authoritarian attitudes')
Table 2. Regression models for authoritarian attitudes
model 1
(Intercept) 75.3 (0.5)***
Baby Boomers −1.1 (0.6)*
Gen X −2.1 (0.6)***
Millennials −3.6 (0.6)***
Num.Obs. 7631
R2 0.006
R2 Adj. 0.006
AIC 62934.0
BIC 62968.7
Log.Lik. −31462.009
RMSE 14.94

Answer: Each generation shows lower levels of authoritarianism compared to their previous. However, the low R^2 value suggests that there statistical significance between generation and authoritarianism is not strong.

##Task 5

Now visualize, using the modelplot() function from the modelsummary package, coefficient estimates and 95% confidence intervals for the following three models:

Model 1 = populist attitudes scale as the outcome; left/right as the single predictor (omitting moderates as we did in the tutorial), and using data for Greece.

Model 2 = populist attitudes scale as the outcome; gender as the single predictor, and using data for Greece.

Model 3 = populist attitudes scale as the outcome; generations as the single predictor (using the four generational category recode we did in the tutorial), and using data for Greece. Interpret.

greece_data$trstplt <- ifelse(greece_data$trstplt > 10, NA, greece_data$trstplt)
greece_data$trstprl <- ifelse(greece_data$trstprl > 10, NA, greece_data$trstprl)
greece_data$trstprt <- ifelse(greece_data$trstprt > 10, NA, greece_data$trstprt)

greece_data$trust <- scales::rescale(greece_data$trstplt + greece_data$trstprl + greece_data$trstprt, na.rm = TRUE, to = c(0, 100))

greece_data$populist <- scales::rescale(greece_data$trust, na.rm = TRUE, to=c(100,0))
model_data <- greece_data %>%
  mutate(
    gndr = case_when(
      gndr == 1 ~ "Male",
      gndr == 2 ~ "Female",
      gndr == 9 ~ NA_character_,
      TRUE ~ as.character(gndr)
    ),

    lrscale = case_when(
      lrscale %in% 0:4 ~ "Left",                    
      lrscale %in% 6:10 ~ "Right",                   
      lrscale %in% c(77, 88, 99) ~ NA_character_,    
      TRUE ~ NA_character_                          
    ),

    cohort = ifelse(yrbrn < 1930 | yrbrn > 2000, NA, yrbrn),

    gen = case_when(
      yrbrn %in% 1900:1945 ~ "1",
      yrbrn %in% 1946:1964 ~ "2",
      yrbrn %in% 1965:1979 ~ "3",
      yrbrn %in% 1980:1996 ~ "4",
      TRUE ~ as.character(cohort)  
    ),

    gen = factor(gen,
                 levels = c("1", "2", "3", "4"),
                 labels = c("Interwar", "Baby Boomers", "Gen X", "Millennials"))
  )
table(model_data$gen)
## 
##     Interwar Baby Boomers        Gen X  Millennials 
##         2978         3484         3498         2330
model1 <- lm(populist ~ lrscale, data = model_data)
model2 <- lm(populist ~ gndr, data = model_data)
model3 <- lm(populist ~ gen, data = model_data)
models <- list(
   "Model 1" = lm(populist ~ lrscale, data = model_data),
   "Model 2" = lm(populist ~ gndr, data = model_data),
   "Model 3" = lm(populist ~ gen, data = model_data))
modelsummary(models, fmt = 1,
  estimate  = c("{estimate} ({std.error}){stars}",
                "{estimate} ({std.error}){stars}",
                "{estimate} ({std.error}){stars}"),
  statistic = NULL,

coef_rename = c("lrscale" = "Right", "gndrMale" = "Male", "genBaby Boomers" = "Baby Boomers", "genGen X" = "Gen X", "genMillennials" = "Millennials"),
  title = 'Table 3. Regression models for populist attitudes')
Table 3. Regression models for populist attitudes
Model 1  Model 2  Model 3
(Intercept) 72.0 (0.5)*** 70.0 (0.3)*** 65.8 (0.5)***
lrscaleRight −8.8 (0.6)***
Male −1.0 (0.5)*
Baby Boomers 3.5 (0.7)***
Gen X 5.6 (0.7)***
Millennials 5.8 (0.7)***
Num.Obs. 4936 9823 9562
R2 0.037 0.000 0.009
R2 Adj. 0.036 0.000 0.009
AIC 44723.8 88873.2 86473.9
BIC 44743.3 88894.8 86509.7
Log.Lik. −22358.894 −44433.590 −43231.944
RMSE 22.44 22.30 22.25 
modelplot(models, coef_omit = 'Interc')

Answer: Men tend to sit lower on the populist scale than women. As generations progress, the higher their levels of populism. All 3 R-squared values are low, which indicates that left/right, gender, and generation are all not strongly correlated with populist attitudes.