Summary

This report replicates Figures 1a and 1b from Chandra and Heizlsperger (2023)1 and presents similar analyses looking at trends by occupation and tenure. To replicate the paper I use the CES, to look at occupations and experience I use the CPS.

1 Data

Chandra and Heizlsperger (2023) use data from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, administered by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), from March 2006 to June 2023 for outcomes such as employment and total hours worked. In Figure 1, they present time series for different industry segments, namely, physicians offices, hospitals, nursing and residential care facilities, and non-health care.

The first step to replicate their figure is to identify the corresponding time series in the CES. I download the data from here https://www.bls.gov/ces/data/ using seasonally adjusted series and the following NAICs for each of industry segment: physicians offices, 6211; hospitals, 622; nursing and residential care facilities, 623.2 For non-health care employment, I use the total non-farm series and subtract the sum of the health care industry segments listed above. For non-health care total hours worked, I use the total private series (there is no total non-farm option for this variable) and also subtract the three health industry segments of interest.

# Variables
vars <- c("total_emp", "total_hours")

# Industries
industries <- c("total", "off_physicians", "hospitals", "nursing_facilities")

# Import and append all data
for(i in 1:length(industries)) {
  for (var in vars) {
    # Import
    import <- read_excel(paste0("../data/", var,"_", industries[i],".xlsx"), skip = 11) %>% 
      mutate(var = var, industry = industries[i]) 
    # Append
    ces_wide <- if(i==1 & var==vars[1]) import else bind_rows(ces_wide, import)
  }
}
rm(import)

# Reshape
ces <- ces_wide %>% 
  pivot_longer(cols = 2:13, names_to = "month", values_to = "values") %>%
  mutate(date = paste(Year, month, "01", sep="-") %>% as.Date("%Y-%b-%d")) %>%
  select(date, industry, var, values) %>%
  pivot_wider(names_from = var, values_from = values)

# Calculate total - (hospitals + nursing facilities + physicians' offices)
non_health <- ces %>% filter(industry=="total") %>%
  mutate(total_emp = ces %>% filter(industry=="total") %>% pull(total_emp) - 
            (ces %>% filter(industry=="hospitals") %>% pull(total_emp) +
              ces %>% filter(industry=="off_physicians") %>% pull(total_emp) +
              ces %>% filter(industry=="nursing_facilities") %>% pull(total_emp)),
         total_hours = ces %>% filter(industry=="total") %>% pull(total_hours) - 
            (ces %>% filter(industry=="hospitals") %>% pull(total_hours) +
              ces %>% filter(industry=="off_physicians") %>% pull(total_hours) +
              ces %>% filter(industry=="nursing_facilities") %>% pull(total_hours)),
         industry = "non_health")

# Append non health
ces <- ces %>% bind_rows(non_health)

rm(ces_wide,non_health)

The dataset is presented below.

# Print sample dataset
kable(ces) %>% kable_styling("striped", full_width = F) %>%
  scroll_box(width = "100%", height = "150px")
date industry total_emp total_hours
2006-01-01 total 135425.0 NA
2006-02-01 total 135732.0 NA
2006-03-01 total 136041.0 3903520
2006-04-01 total 136210.0 3920181
2006-05-01 total 136247.0 3921210
2006-06-01 total 136328.0 3935566
2006-07-01 total 136522.0 3929031
2006-08-01 total 136688.0 3933421
2006-09-01 total 136825.0 3947159
2006-10-01 total 136849.0 3936988
2006-11-01 total 137068.0 3943986
2006-12-01 total 137251.0 3973124
2007-01-01 total 137475.0 3957534
2007-02-01 total 137556.0 3959078
2007-03-01 total 137782.0 3977775
2007-04-01 total 137842.0 3978945
2007-05-01 total 137993.0 3983520
2007-06-01 total 138072.0 3997343
2007-07-01 total 138042.0 3985962
2007-08-01 total 138017.0 3983210
2007-09-01 total 138103.0 3984346
2007-10-01 total 138175.0 3974615
2007-11-01 total 138291.0 3988921
2007-12-01 total 138396.0 3991088
2008-01-01 total 138397.0 3990710
2008-02-01 total 138326.0 3975679
2008-03-01 total 138256.0 3983967
2008-04-01 total 138037.0 3976193
2008-05-01 total 137847.0 3968522
2008-06-01 total 137689.0 3961917
2008-07-01 total 137492.0 3941893
2008-08-01 total 137209.0 3932221
2008-09-01 total 136759.0 3906392
2008-10-01 total 136294.0 3901454
2008-11-01 total 135546.0 3852823
2008-12-01 total 134848.0 3806699
2009-01-01 total 134066.0 3790558
2009-02-01 total 133314.0 3765092
2009-03-01 total 132494.0 3715769
2009-04-01 total 131825.0 3689202
2009-05-01 total 131470.0 3679231
2009-06-01 total 131003.0 3653990
2009-07-01 total 130661.0 3655132
2009-08-01 total 130480.0 3648473
2009-09-01 total 130241.0 3654081
2009-10-01 total 130061.0 3634751
2009-11-01 total 130059.0 3645131
2009-12-01 total 129807.0 3638318
2010-01-01 total 129795.0 3648336
2010-02-01 total 129702.0 3624239
2010-03-01 total 129865.0 3649798
2010-04-01 total 130115.0 3667319
2010-05-01 total 130645.0 3670831
2010-06-01 total 130501.0 3674650
2010-07-01 total 130420.0 3688504
2010-08-01 total 130423.0 3693703
2010-09-01 total 130340.0 3707590
2010-10-01 total 130620.0 3715479
2010-11-01 total 130754.0 3720418
2010-12-01 total 130836.0 3723951
2011-01-01 total 130839.0 3713470
2011-02-01 total 131054.0 3733178
2011-03-01 total 131278.0 3741650
2011-04-01 total 131604.0 3764048
2011-05-01 total 131704.0 3769380
2011-06-01 total 131936.0 3776157
2011-07-01 total 131992.0 3782039
2011-08-01 total 132123.0 3776636
2011-09-01 total 132346.0 3796487
2011-10-01 total 132557.0 3814286
2011-11-01 total 132701.0 3809112
2011-12-01 total 132902.0 3816611
2012-01-01 total 133243.0 3839747
2012-02-01 total 133521.0 3849303
2012-03-01 total 133745.0 3857169
2012-04-01 total 133828.0 3849257
2012-05-01 total 133935.0 3853626
2012-06-01 total 134008.0 3855483
2012-07-01 total 134153.0 3861056
2012-08-01 total 134329.0 3867007
2012-09-01 total 134512.0 3872993
2012-10-01 total 134672.0 3867977
2012-11-01 total 134831.0 3885411
2012-12-01 total 135074.0 3893633
2013-01-01 total 135263.0 3900754
2013-02-01 total 135548.0 3921512
2013-03-01 total 135690.0 3926790
2013-04-01 total 135876.0 3921841
2013-05-01 total 136090.0 3940797
2013-06-01 total 136269.0 3947801
2013-07-01 total 136391.0 3941414
2013-08-01 total 136634.0 3960704
2013-09-01 total 136819.0 3955450
2013-10-01 total 137039.0 3963190
2013-11-01 total 137312.0 3972134
2013-12-01 total 137367.0 3963262
2014-01-01 total 137551.0 3981353
2014-02-01 total 137710.0 3974856
2014-03-01 total 137987.0 4007313
2014-04-01 total 138298.0 4017353
2014-05-01 total 138500.0 4025046
2014-06-01 total 138833.0 4034361
2014-07-01 total 139076.0 4042538
2014-08-01 total 139257.0 4062109
2014-09-01 total 139564.0 4059512
2014-10-01 total 139804.0 4067102
2014-11-01 total 140088.0 4088198
2014-12-01 total 140366.0 4097297
2015-01-01 total 140562.0 4091769
2015-02-01 total 140831.0 4112314
2015-03-01 total 140925.0 4103948
2015-04-01 total 141202.0 4112297
2015-05-01 total 141539.0 4123682
2015-06-01 total 141695.0 4128960
2015-07-01 total 141989.0 4137896
2015-08-01 total 142130.0 4154422
2015-09-01 total 142265.0 4147763
2015-10-01 total 142584.0 4158216
2015-11-01 total 142810.0 4165151
2015-12-01 total 143083.0 4174017
2016-01-01 total 143196.0 4189437
2016-02-01 total 143411.0 4171791
2016-03-01 total 143666.0 4179187
2016-04-01 total 143856.0 4185517
2016-05-01 total 143901.0 4186549
2016-06-01 total 144152.0 4195837
2016-07-01 total 144515.0 4204574
2016-08-01 total 144664.0 4197634
2016-09-01 total 144961.0 4218747
2016-10-01 total 145069.0 4223426
2016-11-01 total 145188.0 4215847
2016-12-01 total 145410.0 4234846
2017-01-01 total 145636.0 4242208
2017-02-01 total 145848.0 4236805
2017-03-01 total 145976.0 4241092
2017-04-01 total 146173.0 4260027
2017-05-01 total 146389.0 4267045
2017-06-01 total 146588.0 4273443
2017-07-01 total 146772.0 4279291
2017-08-01 total 146907.0 4286137
2017-09-01 total 146999.0 4276044
2017-10-01 total 147146.0 4292604
2017-11-01 total 147375.0 4312362
2017-12-01 total 147521.0 4304713
2018-01-01 total 147667.0 4310079
2018-02-01 total 148054.0 4334408
2018-03-01 total 148280.0 4341929
2018-04-01 total 148426.0 4346379
2018-05-01 total 148755.0 4357557
2018-06-01 total 148968.0 4376416
2018-07-01 total 149023.0 4367252
2018-08-01 total 149274.0 4374807
2018-09-01 total 149361.0 4364913
2018-10-01 total 149525.0 4383087
2018-11-01 total 149622.0 4373926
2018-12-01 total 149804.0 4391609
2019-01-01 total 150062.0 4400613
2019-02-01 total 150067.0 4387445
2019-03-01 total 150294.0 4406513
2019-04-01 total 150602.0 4402615
2019-05-01 total 150640.0 4405883
2019-06-01 total 150844.0 4411456
2019-07-01 total 150934.0 4415653
2019-08-01 total 151155.0 4421432
2019-09-01 total 151358.0 4427452
2019-10-01 total 151458.0 4417428
2019-11-01 total 151666.0 4423225
2019-12-01 total 151792.0 4426964
2020-01-01 total 152045.0 4433549
2020-02-01 total 152309.0 4439861
2020-03-01 total 150898.0 4354244
2020-04-01 total 130421.0 3710905
2020-05-01 total 133040.0 3874082
2020-06-01 total 137655.0 4021454
2020-07-01 total 139240.0 4072524
2020-08-01 total 140774.0 4121909
2020-09-01 total 141820.0 4171998
2020-10-01 total 142493.0 4213442
2020-11-01 total 142761.0 4213514
2020-12-01 total 142518.0 4205302
2021-01-01 total 142916.0 4227367
2021-02-01 total 143443.0 4209644
2021-03-01 total 144274.0 4284455
2021-04-01 total 144593.0 4293800
2021-05-01 total 145044.0 4297132
2021-06-01 total 145822.0 4308379
2021-07-01 total 146761.0 4351472
2021-08-01 total 147226.0 4342185
2021-09-01 total 147706.0 4371959
2021-10-01 total 148566.0 4390591
2021-11-01 total 149197.0 4425029
2021-12-01 total 149763.0 4443786
2022-01-01 total 150014.0 4414551
2022-02-01 total 150876.0 4470158
2022-03-01 total 151370.0 4487335
2022-04-01 total 151642.0 4495628
2022-05-01 total 151928.0 4491599
2022-06-01 total 152348.0 4506062
2022-07-01 total 153038.0 4524746
2022-08-01 total 153281.0 4520087
2022-09-01 total 153536.0 4541769
2022-10-01 total 153897.0 4553222
2022-11-01 total 154155.0 4546790
2022-12-01 total 154291.0 4538186
2023-01-01 total 154773.0 4576992
2023-02-01 total 155060.0 4571561
2023-03-01 total 155206.0 4561440
2023-04-01 total 155484.0 4556103
2023-05-01 total 155787.0 4578124
2023-06-01 total 156027.0 4584488
2023-07-01 total 156211.0 4576237
2023-08-01 total 156421.0 4594739
2023-09-01 total 156667.0 4601482
2023-10-01 total 156832.0 4591467
2023-11-01 total 157014.0 4610082
2023-12-01 total 157304.0 4617443
2024-01-01 total 157533.0 4596651
2024-02-01 total 157808.0 4617740
2024-03-01 total NA NA
2024-04-01 total NA NA
2024-05-01 total NA NA
2024-06-01 total NA NA
2024-07-01 total NA NA
2024-08-01 total NA NA
2024-09-01 total NA NA
2024-10-01 total NA NA
2024-11-01 total NA NA
2024-12-01 total NA NA
2006-01-01 off_physicians 2079.0 NA
2006-02-01 off_physicians 2082.0 NA
2006-03-01 off_physicians 2085.6 69033
2006-04-01 off_physicians 2090.3 69398
2006-05-01 off_physicians 2096.4 69600
2006-06-01 off_physicians 2102.8 70023
2006-07-01 off_physicians 2104.7 70507
2006-08-01 off_physicians 2107.4 70387
2006-09-01 off_physicians 2117.0 70708
2006-10-01 off_physicians 2116.4 70476
2006-11-01 off_physicians 2121.2 70424
2006-12-01 off_physicians 2127.4 71055
2007-01-01 off_physicians 2124.9 70547
2007-02-01 off_physicians 2132.0 71209
2007-03-01 off_physicians 2139.4 71242
2007-04-01 off_physicians 2146.0 71247
2007-05-01 off_physicians 2149.9 71377
2007-06-01 off_physicians 2147.6 71300
2007-07-01 off_physicians 2154.5 71314
2007-08-01 off_physicians 2163.6 71832
2007-09-01 off_physicians 2169.5 72244
2007-10-01 off_physicians 2173.4 72592
2007-11-01 off_physicians 2178.9 72993
2007-12-01 off_physicians 2180.3 73040
2008-01-01 off_physicians 2185.8 73224
2008-02-01 off_physicians 2192.8 73678
2008-03-01 off_physicians 2195.1 73755
2008-04-01 off_physicians 2201.9 73764
2008-05-01 off_physicians 2203.0 74021
2008-06-01 off_physicians 2208.3 73978
2008-07-01 off_physicians 2211.6 73867
2008-08-01 off_physicians 2209.2 74008
2008-09-01 off_physicians 2211.5 73864
2008-10-01 off_physicians 2213.6 73934
2008-11-01 off_physicians 2214.6 73968
2008-12-01 off_physicians 2212.3 73891
2009-01-01 off_physicians 2215.5 74441
2009-02-01 off_physicians 2217.0 74270
2009-03-01 off_physicians 2216.8 73819
2009-04-01 off_physicians 2218.0 74303
2009-05-01 off_physicians 2221.0 74404
2009-06-01 off_physicians 2226.5 74810
2009-07-01 off_physicians 2233.0 75252
2009-08-01 off_physicians 2237.1 75614
2009-09-01 off_physicians 2240.5 75505
2009-10-01 off_physicians 2238.0 75421
2009-11-01 off_physicians 2248.3 75543
2009-12-01 off_physicians 2254.2 75967
2010-01-01 off_physicians 2258.8 76573
2010-02-01 off_physicians 2260.6 76408
2010-03-01 off_physicians 2260.9 76645
2010-04-01 off_physicians 2260.2 76847
2010-05-01 off_physicians 2262.4 77148
2010-06-01 off_physicians 2261.9 77357
2010-07-01 off_physicians 2259.9 77063
2010-08-01 off_physicians 2266.0 77724
2010-09-01 off_physicians 2265.3 77926
2010-10-01 off_physicians 2268.7 78270
2010-11-01 off_physicians 2268.7 78497
2010-12-01 off_physicians 2274.1 78456
2011-01-01 off_physicians 2274.9 78484
2011-02-01 off_physicians 2276.9 78553
2011-03-01 off_physicians 2284.2 78805
2011-04-01 off_physicians 2286.0 79324
2011-05-01 off_physicians 2286.0 78867
2011-06-01 off_physicians 2290.5 79251
2011-07-01 off_physicians 2295.4 79421
2011-08-01 off_physicians 2299.1 79319
2011-09-01 off_physicians 2306.1 79560
2011-10-01 off_physicians 2309.5 79678
2011-11-01 off_physicians 2314.9 80327
2011-12-01 off_physicians 2311.9 80685
2012-01-01 off_physicians 2310.9 80419
2012-02-01 off_physicians 2318.5 80916
2012-03-01 off_physicians 2323.2 80615
2012-04-01 off_physicians 2328.3 80559
2012-05-01 off_physicians 2340.1 80733
2012-06-01 off_physicians 2338.4 80909
2012-07-01 off_physicians 2341.6 81019
2012-08-01 off_physicians 2344.4 80882
2012-09-01 off_physicians 2348.9 81037
2012-10-01 off_physicians 2359.9 81653
2012-11-01 off_physicians 2357.5 81098
2012-12-01 off_physicians 2364.3 81805
2013-01-01 off_physicians 2368.8 81960
2013-02-01 off_physicians 2368.1 82647
2013-03-01 off_physicians 2368.8 82434
2013-04-01 off_physicians 2372.4 82085
2013-05-01 off_physicians 2375.8 82203
2013-06-01 off_physicians 2377.1 82485
2013-07-01 off_physicians 2375.0 82175
2013-08-01 off_physicians 2379.7 82576
2013-09-01 off_physicians 2382.8 82683
2013-10-01 off_physicians 2385.7 82545
2013-11-01 off_physicians 2391.3 83217
2013-12-01 off_physicians 2392.7 82309
2014-01-01 off_physicians 2388.8 82414
2014-02-01 off_physicians 2396.3 82672
2014-03-01 off_physicians 2401.6 83336
2014-04-01 off_physicians 2402.5 83367
2014-05-01 off_physicians 2405.0 83454
2014-06-01 off_physicians 2406.9 83519
2014-07-01 off_physicians 2412.5 83714
2014-08-01 off_physicians 2418.4 83918
2014-09-01 off_physicians 2419.9 83971
2014-10-01 off_physicians 2422.4 83815
2014-11-01 off_physicians 2428.4 84265
2014-12-01 off_physicians 2432.7 84171
2015-01-01 off_physicians 2445.9 84873
2015-02-01 off_physicians 2450.6 85036
2015-03-01 off_physicians 2454.3 85164
2015-04-01 off_physicians 2461.3 85407
2015-05-01 off_physicians 2465.9 85813
2015-06-01 off_physicians 2469.2 85681
2015-07-01 off_physicians 2474.0 85848
2015-08-01 off_physicians 2478.0 85739
2015-09-01 off_physicians 2481.2 85850
2015-10-01 off_physicians 2490.8 86182
2015-11-01 off_physicians 2490.1 85908
2015-12-01 off_physicians 2492.5 85991
2016-01-01 off_physicians 2498.2 86438
2016-02-01 off_physicians 2502.2 86076
2016-03-01 off_physicians 2507.8 86519
2016-04-01 off_physicians 2507.2 86248
2016-05-01 off_physicians 2516.4 86313
2016-06-01 off_physicians 2522.5 86522
2016-07-01 off_physicians 2531.2 87073
2016-08-01 off_physicians 2534.1 87173
2016-09-01 off_physicians 2538.8 87842
2016-10-01 off_physicians 2545.9 87834
2016-11-01 off_physicians 2549.5 87958
2016-12-01 off_physicians 2557.0 88217
2017-01-01 off_physicians 2559.5 88047
2017-02-01 off_physicians 2564.3 88468
2017-03-01 off_physicians 2563.8 88451
2017-04-01 off_physicians 2570.5 88682
2017-05-01 off_physicians 2570.4 88936
2017-06-01 off_physicians 2581.5 89320
2017-07-01 off_physicians 2587.7 89534
2017-08-01 off_physicians 2591.0 89649
2017-09-01 off_physicians 2596.2 89829
2017-10-01 off_physicians 2594.0 89752
2017-11-01 off_physicians 2598.4 89905
2017-12-01 off_physicians 2598.8 89918
2018-01-01 off_physicians 2597.9 89628
2018-02-01 off_physicians 2603.6 90345
2018-03-01 off_physicians 2606.0 90168
2018-04-01 off_physicians 2609.8 90560
2018-05-01 off_physicians 2612.4 90389
2018-06-01 off_physicians 2614.3 90716
2018-07-01 off_physicians 2614.1 90448
2018-08-01 off_physicians 2618.2 90852
2018-09-01 off_physicians 2621.4 90700
2018-10-01 off_physicians 2624.9 90559
2018-11-01 off_physicians 2630.4 90223
2018-12-01 off_physicians 2637.3 90987
2019-01-01 off_physicians 2642.8 91441
2019-02-01 off_physicians 2645.2 91259
2019-03-01 off_physicians 2650.5 91972
2019-04-01 off_physicians 2654.8 92122
2019-05-01 off_physicians 2663.2 92147
2019-06-01 off_physicians 2671.9 92715
2019-07-01 off_physicians 2675.9 92319
2019-08-01 off_physicians 2680.5 93281
2019-09-01 off_physicians 2688.1 93277
2019-10-01 off_physicians 2689.9 93609
2019-11-01 off_physicians 2703.3 94345
2019-12-01 off_physicians 2711.9 94374
2020-01-01 off_physicians 2717.7 94576
2020-02-01 off_physicians 2725.4 94844
2020-03-01 off_physicians 2699.4 93939
2020-04-01 off_physicians 2425.3 80035
2020-05-01 off_physicians 2493.6 84034
2020-06-01 off_physicians 2572.1 88737
2020-07-01 off_physicians 2606.0 90689
2020-08-01 off_physicians 2636.3 91216
2020-09-01 off_physicians 2657.1 92467
2020-10-01 off_physicians 2672.4 93534
2020-11-01 off_physicians 2682.5 93619
2020-12-01 off_physicians 2688.7 93836
2021-01-01 off_physicians 2690.1 94423
2021-02-01 off_physicians 2701.8 93482
2021-03-01 off_physicians 2713.5 94430
2021-04-01 off_physicians 2725.5 94847
2021-05-01 off_physicians 2727.8 94927
2021-06-01 off_physicians 2730.6 95025
2021-07-01 off_physicians 2737.7 95820
2021-08-01 off_physicians 2740.5 94273
2021-09-01 off_physicians 2745.1 94431
2021-10-01 off_physicians 2752.0 95219
2021-11-01 off_physicians 2757.5 95410
2021-12-01 off_physicians 2757.9 96251
2022-01-01 off_physicians 2765.0 96222
2022-02-01 off_physicians 2777.9 96949
2022-03-01 off_physicians 2781.4 97071
2022-04-01 off_physicians 2791.4 97420
2022-05-01 off_physicians 2797.0 97336
2022-06-01 off_physicians 2804.1 97863
2022-07-01 off_physicians 2816.3 98007
2022-08-01 off_physicians 2823.6 97697
2022-09-01 off_physicians 2833.4 98602
2022-10-01 off_physicians 2843.2 98943
2022-11-01 off_physicians 2852.5 99267
2022-12-01 off_physicians 2864.3 99678
2023-01-01 off_physicians 2872.7 100257
2023-02-01 off_physicians 2874.7 101189
2023-03-01 off_physicians 2879.8 101081
2023-04-01 off_physicians 2887.4 101059
2023-05-01 off_physicians 2897.2 101112
2023-06-01 off_physicians 2910.3 101861
2023-07-01 off_physicians 2920.7 101348
2023-08-01 off_physicians 2936.7 102197
2023-09-01 off_physicians 2947.7 102285
2023-10-01 off_physicians 2958.7 102667
2023-11-01 off_physicians 2977.2 103011
2023-12-01 off_physicians 2989.0 103284
2024-01-01 off_physicians 3003.5 102742
2024-02-01 off_physicians NA NA
2024-03-01 off_physicians NA NA
2024-04-01 off_physicians NA NA
2024-05-01 off_physicians NA NA
2024-06-01 off_physicians NA NA
2024-07-01 off_physicians NA NA
2024-08-01 off_physicians NA NA
2024-09-01 off_physicians NA NA
2024-10-01 off_physicians NA NA
2024-11-01 off_physicians NA NA
2024-12-01 off_physicians NA NA
2006-01-01 hospitals 4384.4 NA
2006-02-01 hospitals 4391.1 NA
2006-03-01 hospitals 4399.5 157502
2006-04-01 hospitals 4405.7 157283
2006-05-01 hospitals 4412.5 157526
2006-06-01 hospitals 4417.8 158157
2006-07-01 hospitals 4423.9 158818
2006-08-01 hospitals 4434.4 158752
2006-09-01 hospitals 4445.6 159597
2006-10-01 hospitals 4450.1 159759
2006-11-01 hospitals 4454.8 160373
2006-12-01 hospitals 4457.9 160484
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2007-04-01 hospitals 4489.3 162513
2007-05-01 hospitals 4497.4 162806
2007-06-01 hospitals 4513.0 163822
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2007-09-01 hospitals 4540.9 163926
2007-10-01 hospitals 4546.2 164572
2007-11-01 hospitals 4554.0 164399
2007-12-01 hospitals 4563.9 165670
2008-01-01 hospitals 4571.8 166414
2008-02-01 hospitals 4584.0 167316
2008-03-01 hospitals 4596.0 167754
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2008-05-01 hospitals 4616.8 168975
2008-06-01 hospitals 4625.7 169301
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2008-08-01 hospitals 4646.8 170538
2008-09-01 hospitals 4651.6 170714
2008-10-01 hospitals 4656.3 169955
2008-11-01 hospitals 4662.6 169719
2008-12-01 hospitals 4669.3 170429
2009-01-01 hospitals 4666.7 168935
2009-02-01 hospitals 4669.2 169025
2009-03-01 hospitals 4668.0 168048
2009-04-01 hospitals 4661.9 167362
2009-05-01 hospitals 4665.1 167477
2009-06-01 hospitals 4665.6 167495
2009-07-01 hospitals 4667.4 167560
2009-08-01 hospitals 4665.2 167481
2009-09-01 hospitals 4666.2 167983
2009-10-01 hospitals 4669.5 168102
2009-11-01 hospitals 4670.8 168149
2009-12-01 hospitals 4670.7 168612
2010-01-01 hospitals 4677.0 168840
2010-02-01 hospitals 4674.0 168264
2010-03-01 hospitals 4670.9 168619
2010-04-01 hospitals 4672.4 168674
2010-05-01 hospitals 4673.3 168239
2010-06-01 hospitals 4677.8 167933
2010-07-01 hospitals 4676.3 167879
2010-08-01 hospitals 4680.6 168034
2010-09-01 hospitals 4678.8 168437
2010-10-01 hospitals 4683.7 169082
2010-11-01 hospitals 4688.3 168779
2010-12-01 hospitals 4693.7 168973
2011-01-01 hospitals 4693.0 168948
2011-02-01 hospitals 4693.8 168977
2011-03-01 hospitals 4701.6 169258
2011-04-01 hospitals 4712.0 169632
2011-05-01 hospitals 4716.4 171205
2011-06-01 hospitals 4718.9 170352
2011-07-01 hospitals 4726.4 172041
2011-08-01 hospitals 4728.4 169750
2011-09-01 hospitals 4737.6 170080
2011-10-01 hospitals 4740.5 170658
2011-11-01 hospitals 4744.4 170798
2011-12-01 hospitals 4750.2 170532
2012-01-01 hospitals 4762.6 170977
2012-02-01 hospitals 4770.2 171250
2012-03-01 hospitals 4773.7 171376
2012-04-01 hospitals 4773.8 171379
2012-05-01 hospitals 4774.9 171896
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2012-08-01 hospitals 4780.3 172091
2012-09-01 hospitals 4783.4 171724
2012-10-01 hospitals 4788.0 171410
2012-11-01 hospitals 4790.4 171975
2012-12-01 hospitals 4792.0 172512
2013-01-01 hospitals 4788.9 172400
2013-02-01 hospitals 4792.0 172991
2013-03-01 hospitals 4793.4 172562
2013-04-01 hospitals 4800.6 172822
2013-05-01 hospitals 4787.2 172818
2013-06-01 hospitals 4786.5 172793
2013-07-01 hospitals 4782.4 171688
2013-08-01 hospitals 4783.1 172192
2013-09-01 hospitals 4780.4 172572
2013-10-01 hospitals 4779.4 172058
2013-11-01 hospitals 4779.1 172526
2013-12-01 hospitals 4774.2 172349
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2014-04-01 hospitals 4770.6 172219
2014-05-01 hospitals 4780.2 173043
2014-06-01 hospitals 4782.4 172645
2014-07-01 hospitals 4779.3 173011
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2015-11-01 hospitals 4949.4 181148
2015-12-01 hospitals 4955.6 181375
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2016-07-01 hospitals 5023.9 184377
2016-08-01 hospitals 5030.1 185108
2016-09-01 hospitals 5033.8 184237
2016-10-01 hospitals 5039.4 184442
2016-11-01 hospitals 5047.3 184731
2016-12-01 hospitals 5048.7 184782
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2017-02-01 hospitals 5054.2 185489
2017-03-01 hospitals 5060.4 185717
2017-04-01 hospitals 5059.8 185695
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2017-06-01 hospitals 5071.6 186635
2017-07-01 hospitals 5076.2 187312
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2017-11-01 hospitals 5082.8 188064
2017-12-01 hospitals 5096.6 188574
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2018-03-01 hospitals 5113.7 189207
2018-04-01 hospitals 5118.6 189900
2018-05-01 hospitals 5122.0 190026
2018-06-01 hospitals 5128.4 190776
2018-07-01 hospitals 5131.1 189851
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2018-11-01 hospitals 5153.9 190694
2018-12-01 hospitals 5159.1 191403
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2019-02-01 hospitals 5165.8 192168
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2023-12-01 hospitals 5436.4 201276
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2024-03-01 hospitals NA NA
2024-04-01 hospitals NA NA
2024-05-01 hospitals NA NA
2024-06-01 hospitals NA NA
2024-07-01 hospitals NA NA
2024-08-01 hospitals NA NA
2024-09-01 hospitals NA NA
2024-10-01 hospitals NA NA
2024-11-01 hospitals NA NA
2024-12-01 hospitals NA NA
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2006-02-01 nursing_facilities 2873.5 NA
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2006-04-01 nursing_facilities 2879.0 93568
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2008-09-01 nursing_facilities 3018.9 98718
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2009-03-01 nursing_facilities 3067.2 99684
2009-04-01 nursing_facilities 3068.6 100036
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2010-04-01 nursing_facilities 3116.6 100978
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2011-02-01 nursing_facilities 3156.3 102580
2011-03-01 nursing_facilities 3158.6 103286
2011-04-01 nursing_facilities 3163.5 103130
2011-05-01 nursing_facilities 3166.4 103225
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2011-09-01 nursing_facilities 3181.6 103402
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2015-05-01 nursing_facilities 3284.6 108720
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2008-11-01 non_health 125631.6 3510123
2008-12-01 non_health 124918.3 3463316
2009-01-01 non_health 124130.1 3447937
2009-02-01 non_health 123365.6 3422275
2009-03-01 non_health 122542.0 3374218
2009-04-01 non_health 121876.5 3347501
2009-05-01 non_health 121508.9 3337412
2009-06-01 non_health 121031.6 3311916
2009-07-01 non_health 120673.4 3312295
2009-08-01 non_health 120483.3 3305119
2009-09-01 non_health 120238.7 3309676
2009-10-01 non_health 120049.8 3290668
2009-11-01 non_health 120034.4 3300821
2009-12-01 non_health 119779.7 3293221
2010-01-01 non_health 119758.5 3302150
2010-02-01 non_health 119663.6 3278383
2010-03-01 non_health 119821.2 3303394
2010-04-01 non_health 120065.8 3320820
2010-05-01 non_health 120590.6 3324086
2010-06-01 non_health 120440.7 3327628
2010-07-01 non_health 120357.2 3341947
2010-08-01 non_health 120345.6 3346194
2010-09-01 non_health 120263.6 3359114
2010-10-01 non_health 120530.6 3365861
2010-11-01 non_health 120653.6 3370667
2010-12-01 non_health 120715.0 3373728
2011-01-01 non_health 120716.5 3363513
2011-02-01 non_health 120927.0 3383068
2011-03-01 non_health 121133.6 3390301
2011-04-01 non_health 121442.5 3411962
2011-05-01 non_health 121535.2 3416083
2011-06-01 non_health 121757.6 3423245
2011-07-01 non_health 121796.9 3427127
2011-08-01 non_health 121919.2 3424337
2011-09-01 non_health 122120.7 3443445
2011-10-01 non_health 122327.8 3460944
2011-11-01 non_health 122468.1 3455162
2011-12-01 non_health 122669.5 3462356
2012-01-01 non_health 122989.8 3484693
2012-02-01 non_health 123251.5 3493443
2012-03-01 non_health 123460.1 3501249
2012-04-01 non_health 123538.1 3493397
2012-05-01 non_health 123626.7 3496895
2012-06-01 non_health 123698.8 3498644
2012-07-01 non_health 123831.6 3503802
2012-08-01 non_health 124005.6 3509756
2012-09-01 non_health 124177.3 3515514
2012-10-01 non_health 124320.5 3510156
2012-11-01 non_health 124478.3 3527541
2012-12-01 non_health 124704.3 3534880
2013-01-01 non_health 124894.9 3541414
2013-02-01 non_health 125174.1 3561104
2013-03-01 non_health 125307.6 3566493
2013-04-01 non_health 125480.1 3561867
2013-05-01 non_health 125701.0 3580608
2013-06-01 non_health 125876.9 3587274
2013-07-01 non_health 126005.3 3582308
2013-08-01 non_health 126231.9 3600335
2013-09-01 non_health 126423.6 3594825
2013-10-01 non_health 126637.1 3602744
2013-11-01 non_health 126901.7 3610446
2013-12-01 non_health 126955.3 3602499
2014-01-01 non_health 127152.9 3621163
2014-02-01 non_health 127299.5 3614243
2014-03-01 non_health 127565.4 3645836
2014-04-01 non_health 127870.2 3655338
2014-05-01 non_health 128057.1 3662022
2014-06-01 non_health 128388.2 3672068
2014-07-01 non_health 128628.7 3679358
2014-08-01 non_health 128787.5 3697670
2014-09-01 non_health 129084.4 3694235
2014-10-01 non_health 129312.1 3701469
2014-11-01 non_health 129580.5 3721619
2014-12-01 non_health 129840.4 3729842
2015-01-01 non_health 130002.0 3722546
2015-02-01 non_health 130255.2 3742514
2015-03-01 non_health 130338.7 3733437
2015-04-01 non_health 130590.7 3740423
2015-05-01 non_health 130906.8 3750967
2015-06-01 non_health 131060.7 3757087
2015-07-01 non_health 131320.5 3763984
2015-08-01 non_health 131441.0 3779369
2015-09-01 non_health 131554.8 3772121
2015-10-01 non_health 131853.0 3781994
2015-11-01 non_health 132065.5 3788699
2015-12-01 non_health 132334.8 3799068
2016-01-01 non_health 132421.3 3812137
2016-02-01 non_health 132623.4 3795029
2016-03-01 non_health 132868.3 3801505
2016-04-01 non_health 133038.7 3806700
2016-05-01 non_health 133063.9 3806962
2016-06-01 non_health 133296.4 3815279
2016-07-01 non_health 133631.5 3821955
2016-08-01 non_health 133778.1 3814740
2016-09-01 non_health 134062.0 3835566
2016-10-01 non_health 134156.7 3840028
2016-11-01 non_health 134262.6 3831983
2016-12-01 non_health 134466.2 3850354
2017-01-01 non_health 134687.7 3857308
2017-02-01 non_health 134887.4 3851556
2017-03-01 non_health 135009.5 3855625
2017-04-01 non_health 135196.2 3874546
2017-05-01 non_health 135404.6 3880531
2017-06-01 non_health 135585.3 3886616
2017-07-01 non_health 135757.0 3891524
2017-08-01 non_health 135880.9 3897479
2017-09-01 non_health 135975.3 3887114
2017-10-01 non_health 136120.3 3904098
2017-11-01 non_health 136342.2 3921779
2017-12-01 non_health 136474.3 3914288
2018-01-01 non_health 136612.8 3919652
2018-02-01 non_health 136985.4 3942431
2018-03-01 non_health 137207.0 3950554
2018-04-01 non_health 137344.3 3953919
2018-05-01 non_health 137663.2 3965341
2018-06-01 non_health 137871.6 3982910
2018-07-01 non_health 137926.7 3974691
2018-08-01 non_health 138164.1 3980987
2018-09-01 non_health 138241.5 3971016
2018-10-01 non_health 138389.6 3989736
2018-11-01 non_health 138480.5 3980207
2018-12-01 non_health 138642.7 3996495
2019-01-01 non_health 138892.0 4005431
2019-02-01 non_health 138892.4 3991674
2019-03-01 non_health 139100.8 4008711
2019-04-01 non_health 139396.3 4004700
2019-05-01 non_health 139421.4 4007444
2019-06-01 non_health 139603.8 4012302
2019-07-01 non_health 139692.0 4016998
2019-08-01 non_health 139898.8 4021972
2019-09-01 non_health 140085.2 4027664
2019-10-01 non_health 140178.9 4017151
2019-11-01 non_health 140364.7 4020315
2019-12-01 non_health 140484.5 4025135
2020-01-01 non_health 140723.3 4031213
2020-02-01 non_health 140971.5 4036956
2020-03-01 non_health 139591.4 3951873
2020-04-01 non_health 119648.8 3336026
2020-05-01 non_health 122276.3 3496692
2020-06-01 non_health 126823.0 3638291
2020-07-01 non_health 128380.6 3685747
2020-08-01 non_health 129890.5 3733135
2020-09-01 non_health 130920.2 3780803
2020-10-01 non_health 131571.2 3821421
2020-11-01 non_health 131834.4 3820039
2020-12-01 non_health 131557.1 3809476
2021-01-01 non_health 132019.5 3833542
2021-02-01 non_health 132542.0 3819874
2021-03-01 non_health 133354.0 3893446
2021-04-01 non_health 133689.0 3904172
2021-05-01 non_health 134149.0 3907510
2021-06-01 non_health 134941.8 3918764
2021-07-01 non_health 135888.4 3961580
2021-08-01 non_health 136357.5 3954672
2021-09-01 non_health 136887.4 3983861
2021-10-01 non_health 137741.4 4001735
2021-11-01 non_health 138368.6 4037356
2021-12-01 non_health 138932.9 4055444
2022-01-01 non_health 139188.5 4027820
2022-02-01 non_health 140023.7 4081023
2022-03-01 non_health 140508.4 4099181
2022-04-01 non_health 140752.9 4106707
2022-05-01 non_health 141005.0 4101540
2022-06-01 non_health 141390.2 4114775
2022-07-01 non_health 142040.2 4133147
2022-08-01 non_health 142245.5 4128232
2022-09-01 non_health 142455.1 4146693
2022-10-01 non_health 142782.4 4157485
2022-11-01 non_health 143010.7 4149999
2022-12-01 non_health 143111.5 4140667
2023-01-01 non_health 143556.6 4179254
2023-02-01 non_health 143817.7 4172363
2023-03-01 non_health 143940.4 4160341
2023-04-01 non_health 144188.6 4154548
2023-05-01 non_health 144457.7 4175344
2023-06-01 non_health 144652.1 4180647
2023-07-01 non_health 144782.8 4171721
2023-08-01 non_health 144944.0 4188217
2023-09-01 non_health 145153.4 4194585
2023-10-01 non_health 145275.7 4182203
2023-11-01 non_health 145399.9 4200170
2023-12-01 non_health 145657.4 4205388
2024-01-01 non_health 145835.0 4184348
2024-02-01 non_health NA NA
2024-03-01 non_health NA NA
2024-04-01 non_health NA NA
2024-05-01 non_health NA NA
2024-06-01 non_health NA NA
2024-07-01 non_health NA NA
2024-08-01 non_health NA NA
2024-09-01 non_health NA NA
2024-10-01 non_health NA NA
2024-11-01 non_health NA NA
2024-12-01 non_health NA NA

2 Replication Figures

To replicate their figures, I set March 2006 as 100 for all series and plot it till June 2023. See results below.

# Set March 2006 as 100
ces_figs <- ces %>% group_by(industry) %>%
  filter(date %within% interval(ymd("2006-03-01"), ymd("2023-06-01"))) %>%
  mutate(total_emp = total_emp/total_emp[1]*100,
         total_hours = total_hours/total_hours[1]*100)

2.1 Chandra and Heizlsperger (2023) Figure 1a

2.2 My Figure

ggplot(ces_figs %>% filter(industry!="total")) +
  geom_line(aes(x=date, y=total_emp, color=industry), linewidth=1) +
  ggtitle("Employment") + 
  scale_color_manual(limits = c("off_physicians", "hospitals", "nursing_facilities", "non_health"),
    labels = c("Physician offices", "Hospitals", "Nursing and residental care facilities", "Non-health care"),
    values = c("forestgreen", "steelblue1", "darkorange2","goldenrod2")) +
  scale_x_date(date_breaks = "years", date_labels = "%Y") + 
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = seq(90, 155, by = 5), limits = c(88,155)) +
  geom_vline(xintercept=ymd("2020-03-01"), color="black") + theme_classic() + 
  theme(legend.position = c(.2,.8),
        legend.title = element_blank(),
        axis.title.y = element_blank(),
        axis.title.x = element_blank(),
        panel.grid.major.y = element_line(colour = "gray95"))

2.3 Chandra and Heizlsperger (2023) Figure 1b

2.4 My Figure

ggplot(ces_figs %>% filter(industry!="total")) +
  geom_line(aes(x=date, y=total_hours, color=industry), linewidth=1) +
  ggtitle("Employment") + 
  scale_color_manual(limits = c("off_physicians", "hospitals", "nursing_facilities", "non_health"),
    labels = c("Physician offices", "Hospitals", "Nursing and residental care facilities", "Non-health care"),
    values = c("forestgreen", "steelblue1", "darkorange2","goldenrod2")) +
  scale_x_date(date_breaks = "years", date_labels = "%Y") + 
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = seq(90, 155, by = 5), limits = c(88,155)) +
  geom_vline(xintercept=ymd("2020-03-01"), color="black") + theme_classic() + 
  theme(legend.position = c(.2,.8),
        legend.title = element_blank(),
        axis.title.y = element_blank(),
        axis.title.x = element_blank(),
        panel.grid.major.y = element_line(colour = "gray95"))

3 Occupation

Marcella’s instructions: “Graph (i) employee types (e.g., nurses vs. physicians and other occupations), and (ii) employee experience (e.g., churn in position / tenure in position). It seems possible that employment is up but who is working and for how long they are staying is still different.”

Employment trends by occupation are presented below, using the Current Population Survey (CPS).

# Employed individuals on CPS
cps <- read_dta("../../CPS/masterfile/2003_2023.dta") %>% 
  filter(empstat %in% c(10,12)) %>% # "At work" or "Has job, not at work last week"
  mutate(date = paste(year,month,"1",sep="-") %>% as.Date("%Y-%m-%d")) # formats date
# Simplify occupations and collapse
nurses_doctors_others <- cps %>% 
  mutate(occ_simple = ifelse(occ2010 %in% c(3500,3600,3130),"Nurses", 
                        ifelse(occ2010==3060, "Doctors", "Other"))) %>%
  group_by(occ_simple, date) %>% summarise(emp = sum(wtfinl, na.rm = T))

I use the same sample period and set March 2006 as 100, as I did above for the CES.

# Set March 2006 as 100
nurses_doctors_others_figs <- nurses_doctors_others %>% group_by(occ_simple) %>%
  filter(date %within% interval(ymd("2006-03-01"), ymd("2023-06-01"))) %>%
  mutate(emp = emp/emp[1]*100)
# Calculate linear trend
for (i in c("Doctors", "Nurses", "Other")) {
  # Run linear regression from Jan2013 to Jan2020
  regression <- 
    lm(emp ~ date, 
       data = nurses_doctors_others_figs %>% 
         filter(date %within% interval(ymd("2013-01-01"),ymd("2020-01-01")) & 
                              occ_simple==i))
  # Calculate expected average for last 6 months
  exp_values <- regression$coefficients["(Intercept)"] + 
    regression$coefficients["date"]*as.numeric(nurses_doctors_others_figs$date %>% unique)
  # Add to dataset
  nurses_doctors_others_figs$linear_trend[nurses_doctors_others_figs$occ_simple==i] <- exp_values
}
ggplot(nurses_doctors_others_figs) +
  geom_line(aes(y=linear_trend, x=date), color="black", linetype="dotted", linewidth=.8,
              data=nurses_doctors_others_figs %>% filter(occ_simple=="Doctors" &  date>=ymd("2013-01-01"))) + # reg
    geom_line(aes(y=linear_trend, x=date), color="black", linetype="dotted", linewidth=.8,
              data=nurses_doctors_others_figs %>% filter(occ_simple=="Nurses" &  date>=ymd("2013-01-01"))) + # reg
    geom_line(aes(y=linear_trend, x=date), color="black", linetype="dotted", linewidth=.8,
              data=nurses_doctors_others_figs %>% filter(occ_simple=="Other" &  date>=ymd("2013-01-01"))) +
  geom_line(aes(x=date, y=emp, color=occ_simple), linewidth=1) +
  ggtitle("Employment") + 
  scale_color_manual(limits = c("Doctors", "Nurses", "Other"),
    values = c("forestgreen","darkorange2","goldenrod2")) +
  scale_x_date(date_breaks = "years", date_labels = "%Y") + 
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = seq(90, 155, by = 5), limits = c(88,155)) +
  geom_vline(xintercept=ymd("2020-03-01"), color="black") + theme_classic() + 
  theme(legend.position = c(.15,.8),
        legend.title = element_blank(),
        axis.title.y = element_blank(),
        axis.title.x = element_blank(),
        panel.grid.major.y = element_line(colour = "gray95"))

4 Experience

To look at experience, we divide the CPS respondents into three age groups: young, \(<30\), middle age, \([30,55]\), and near retirement, \(>55\).

# Create age groups and collapse
age_groups <- cps %>% 
  mutate(age_group = ifelse(age<30,"<30", ifelse(age>55, ">55", "[30,55]"))) %>%
  group_by(age_group, date) %>% summarise(emp = sum(wtfinl, na.rm = T))

# Set March 2006 as 100
age_groups <- age_groups %>% group_by(age_group) %>%
  filter(date %within% interval(ymd("2006-03-01"), ymd("2023-06-01"))) %>%
  mutate(emp = emp/emp[1]*100)

# Calculate linear trend
for (i in c("<30", "[30,55]", ">55")) {
  # Run linear regression from Jan2013 to Jan2020
  regression <- 
    lm(emp ~ date, 
       data = age_groups %>% 
         filter(date %within% interval(ymd("2013-01-01"),ymd("2020-01-01")) & 
                              age_group==i))
  # Calculate expected average for last 6 months
  exp_values <- regression$coefficients["(Intercept)"] + 
    regression$coefficients["date"]*as.numeric(age_groups$date %>% unique)
  # Add to dataset
  age_groups$linear_trend[age_groups$age_group==i] <- exp_values
}

# Figure
ggplot(age_groups) +
  geom_line(aes(y=linear_trend, x=date), color="black", linetype="dotted", linewidth=.8,
              data=age_groups %>% filter(age_group=="<30" &  date>=ymd("2013-01-01"))) + # reg
    geom_line(aes(y=linear_trend, x=date), color="black", linetype="dotted", linewidth=.8,
              data=age_groups %>% filter(age_group=="[30,55]" &  date>=ymd("2013-01-01"))) + # reg
    geom_line(aes(y=linear_trend, x=date), color="black", linetype="dotted", linewidth=.8,
              data=age_groups %>% filter(age_group==">55" &  date>=ymd("2013-01-01"))) +
  geom_line(aes(x=date, y=emp, color=age_group), linewidth=1) +
  ggtitle("Employment") + 
  scale_color_manual(name = "Age group", limits = c("<30", "[30,55]", ">55"),
    values = c("forestgreen","darkorange2","goldenrod2")) +
  scale_x_date(date_breaks = "years", date_labels = "%Y") + 
  geom_vline(xintercept=ymd("2020-03-01"), color="black") + theme_classic() + 
  theme(legend.position = c(.15,.8),
        axis.title.y = element_blank(),
        axis.title.x = element_blank(),
        panel.grid.major.y = element_line(colour = "gray95"))


  1. Chandra, Amitabh, and Louis-Jonas Heizlsperger. “The Great Resignation, Employment, and Wages in Health Care.” NEJM Catalyst Innovations in Care Delivery 4.6 (2023).↩︎

  2. To be more specific, I use the one screen option, choose data types “all employees, thousands” and Aggregate weekly hours of all employees, thousands”, super sector “private education and health services”, and then the industries with those NAICs.↩︎