By: Alyssa Anderson
The current U.S. government hopes to lessen the U.S.’s reliance on trade with China, yet China is the main supplier of graphite and manganese, needed for electric vehicles and the energy transition. The paper explores how graphite and manganese demand projections will change over time, and in different policy scenarios, to analyze whether the U.S. will be able to decrease imports of these critical minerals in the future.
To reach greenhouse gas emissions targets and lessen the catastrophic effects of global warming, demand for clean energy technologies will increase substantially over the next few decades. In the transportation sector, global demand for electric vehicles is on the rise, with EV sales projected to double from 2025 to 2030. China is currently the largest producer of electric vehicles, and controls the supply chains for many of the critical minerals used in EV battery manufacturing.
Unfortunately for the United States, a series of tariffs and export controls have limited trade with China, specifically in the high technology and manufacturing sectors. The Biden Administration, however, hopes to incentivize domestic production of EV vehicles through the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, with the hopes of lessening the U.S.’s dependence on trade with China. With regards to the critical minerals used for EV batteries, the U.S. is a net exporter of copper, and has some domestic production of cobalt, however, the country is 100% reliant on imports for graphite and manganese, with the highest supplies coming from China. The analysis below explores projected demand for both graphite and manganese to understand the implications of the trade war with China during the transition to net zero emissions.
options(repos = c(CRAN = "https://cran.rstudio.com/"))
library(here)
library(tidyverse)
library(readxl)
library(tidyverse)
library(writexl)
library(esquisse)
library(janitor)
library(countrycode)
library(openxlsx)
final_iea_EV_demand <- read.csv("C:/Users/alyss/OneDrive - Johns Hopkins/Desktop/R Coding/data_clean/iea_mineral_demand_for_EV_vehicles.csv")
filtered_manganese_graphite <- final_iea_EV_demand %>%
filter(indicator == "Manganese" | indicator == "Graphite")According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand for graphite will exceed manganese over the next 25 years. Graphite has a high electrical conductivity and helps with storage capacity and stability of lithium batteries, as well as being used in other car parts. Graphite demand is expected to grow substantially, peaking in the year 2040. However, recent developments have shown that silicone can be used as a substitute for graphite in battery production, which may lead to decreases in demand as cheaper silicon substitutes become more readily available. Manganese acts as a stabilizer and helps to improve the safety and longevity of rechargeable batteries. While manganese experiences overall lower volume demand than graphite, the IEA shows a steady increase of market demand for the mineral through 2050.
# Demand over time
ggplot(filtered_manganese_graphite, aes(x = year, y = value, fill = indicator)) +
geom_col() +
labs(title = "Demand for Graphite and Manganese Over Time ",
x = "Year",
y = "Mineral Demand (Kt)",
subtitle = "Demand for Managanese steadily increases over time",
caption = "Data from IEA | Insights by Alyssa Anderson",
fill = "Mineral"
) +
theme_minimal()
The IEA database also projects critical mineral demand according to different public policy scenarios. The projections show demand today, versus demand in a Stated Policies Scenario, an Announced Pledges Scenario, and a Net Zero Emissions Scenario. Stated Policies includes a projection based on current government and industry guidelines, while Announced Pledges takes into account nation-wide and international climate commitments for the near-term future. However, to have the most substantial effect on global warming, many countries have pledged to have ‘Net Zero’ carbon dioxide emissions by the year 2050. Demand for manganese and graphite increase in all policy scenarios compared to the current year, but see the highest demand as global Net Zero Emissions targets increase. To meet these emissions targets, countries and industries will need to quickly transition from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources, driving up demand for electric vehicles and the critical minerals needed in their production.
# shortening names for graphs
filtered_manganese_graphite[, 3] <- ifelse(filtered_manganese_graphite[, 3] == "Stated policies scenario", "Stated policies",
ifelse(filtered_manganese_graphite[, 3] == "Announced pledges scenario", "Announced pledges",
ifelse(filtered_manganese_graphite[, 3] == "
Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario", "Net Zero Emissions",
filtered_manganese_graphite[, 3])))
filtered_manganese_graphite[, 3] <- gsub("Net Zero Emissions by 2050 scenario", "Net Zero Emissions", filtered_manganese_graphite[, 3])
filtered_manganese_graphite[, 1] <- gsub("STEPS - Base case", "Base case", filtered_manganese_graphite[, 1])
filtered_manganese_graphite[, 1] <- gsub("Faster uptake of solid state batteries", "Faster solid state uptake", filtered_manganese_graphite[, 1])
filtered_manganese_graphite[, 1] <- gsub("Limited battery size reduction", "Limited size reduction", filtered_manganese_graphite[, 1])
filtered_manganese_graphite[, 1] <- gsub("Wider use of silicon-rich anodes", "Wider silicon use", filtered_manganese_graphite[, 1])
# demand based on policy scenario
ggplot(filtered_manganese_graphite) +
aes(x = value, y = scenario, colour = indicator) +
geom_boxplot(fill = "#112446") +
scale_color_hue(direction = 1) +
labs(
x = "Mineral Demand (Kt)",
y = "Demand Scenarios",
title = "Graphite and Manganese Demand by Policy Scenario",
subtitle = "Demand for both minerals intensifies with the increase in Net Zero Targets",
caption = "Data from IEA | Insights by Alyssa Anderson",
color = "Mineral"
) +
theme_minimal()+
theme(axis.text.y = element_text(size = 8, angle = 45))
Finally, we can also analyze demand based on the availability and uptake of clean energy technologies. Retaining the Stated Policy Scenario as the base case, The IEA created projections for critical mineral demand as EV batteries reduce in size, production increases for silicon anodes, or switches to solid-state versus liquid-state lithium batteries, and nickel supply is constrained. Finally, the limited battery size reduction scenario offers a counter factual, in which demand for SUVs continues to increase and EV battery sizes are not substantially reduced. In this scenario, graphite and manganese experience the smallest demand compared to other technological projections. Graphite demand also decreases in the event that silicone rich anodes become a reliable and low-cost replacement. In all other scenarios, we see that manganese and graphite experience similar demand projections to the current base case.
# demand based on technology scenario
ggplot(filtered_manganese_graphite) +
aes(x = tech_scenario, y = value, fill = indicator) +
geom_col() +
labs(title = "Graphite and Manganese Demand by Technology Scenario",
x = "Demand Scenarios",
y = "Mineral Demand (Kt)",
caption = "Data from IEA | Insights by Alyssa Anderson",
subtitle = "In a battery size reduction scenario, demand decreases",
fill = "Mineral",
) +
scale_fill_hue(direction = 1) +
theme_minimal() +
theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1, size = 8 ))+
facet_wrap(vars(indicator))
The IEA data demonstrates that demand for the critical minerals used in electric vehicle production, particularly manganese and graphite, will growth substantially over the next 25 years, particularly as countries and corporations adopt net zero emissions targets. However, if EV batteries do not reduce in size, due to sustained market demand for electric SUVs, demand for both minerals may lessen, and demand for graphite will decline over time as cheaper silicon alternatives become available. However, unless the U.S. can find alternative sources for these two minerals, the country will be reliant on trade with China to meet the increasing demand for electric vehicles and other clean energy technology. The current and next administration will need to reassess the trade wars with China, and strengthen alternative supply chains or significantly invest in alternative technologies in order to meet emissions targets and work towards a greener future.