English Rugby League - The Big Performers

1 Introduction

The English Rugby League has two grades - the Super League and the Championship. The Super League is the top-level of the British Rugby League system and consists of twelve teams. Ten of the teams in this study come from Northern England. This reflects the sport’s geographic heartland as shown in Map 1. One team from Perpignon (Catalan Dragons) participated during the two years tat this study covers, namely 2017 and 2018 .

During the Super League season the 12 teams play home and away (22 games). There is an extra game during what is described as ‘Magic Weekend’. After the initial sequence of 23 games, the Top 4 teams compete in semi-finals. While this was the arrangement for 2017 and 2018 other arrangements exist in different years. The bottom four teams contest relegation with the top four Championship teams. Only the results of the initial 23 games form the basis for semi-final seeding. Consequently, the top teams are strategic about where they finish in the preliminary rounds, once they have established their prospects of qualifying. This leads to what might be called a ‘seasonal effect’, where results from one quarter to another vary, depending on a team’s strategic objective at the time.

As one Super League team was demoted in 2017, the performance of eleven teams is explored. As four teams proceed to the knock-out stage, the exploration is confined to the 23 preliminary games where all eleven teams compete in the same number of games.The study explores whether success (reaching the semi-finals) is associated with: higher Home Scores, higher late Season scores; higher overall scores or with more play-related influences such as tries scored, yards gained, tackles and carries made.

2 Scoring Profile

The home and away scores of each team per year are presented in Table 1. The Table is laid out alphabetically and this format is followed throughout the report to allow ease of cross-referencing.

Table 1 Home, Away and Total Score per team per year

Home and Away Scores 2017 and 2018
Team Home '17 Home '18 Away '17 Away '18 Tot '17 Tot '18
Castleford Tigers 432 251 142 124 574 375
Catalans Dragons 159 210 228 167 387 377
Huddersfield Giants 210 177 196 207 406 384
Hull FC 227 287 271 144 498 431
Leeds Rhinos 258 151 118 154 376 305
Salford Red Devils 201 164 166 212 367 376
St Helens 201 263 149 100 350 363
Wakefield Trinity 142 288 170 215 312 503
Warrington Wolves 165 184 182 184 347 368
Widnes Vikings 122 157 230 260 352 417
Wigan Warriors 233 290 192 98 425 388

There was a very significant gap between the top and bottom scores. in 2017, Catleford Tigers (574) were by far the highest scorers followed by Hull FC (498) and Wigan Warriors (425). The two lowest scores were recorded by Wakefield Trinity (312) and Warrington Wolves (347). However, in 2018, there was a smaller discrepancy between the two top teams - Wakefield Trinity (503) and Hull FC ((431) and the two bottom teams - Leeds Rhinos (305) and St Helens (363).

3 Home and Away Effect

Some of the discrepancy in scores may be explained by examining whether there was an effect arising from playing at ‘Home’ or ‘Away’. The Home and Away scores are presented in Diagram 1 (2017) and Diagram 2 (2018).

Diagram 1. Scores by Home and Away - 2017

It is apparent that Catleford Tigers had an exceptionally high Home score. However, it is also apparent that some teams scored less at Home than they did Away. Surprisingly, Catalan Dragons, who travelled from the South of France, was among those. Higher Away scores were also recorded by Hull FC, Wakefield Trinity, Warrington Wolves and especially Widnes Vikings. Five of the eleven teams scored less at home than away suggesting that there was no positive ‘Home’ effect in 2017. The scores for 2018 are examined in Diagram 2.

Diagram 2. Scores by Home and Away - 2018

Unlike 2017, those teams that scored more at Home in 2018 recorded somewhat similar ‘Home’ scores. Warrington Wolves had the same score (184) Away as at Home (see Table 1). However, the four teams who scored more Away (Huddersfield Giants, Leeds Rhinos, Salford Red Devils, Widnes Vikings) reflected a far greater variance in their scores than those with greater Home scores. Overall, there was no evidence of a ‘Home’ effect in 2018.

4 Seasonal Effect

It is also interesting to check if there was a Seasonal Effect. Teams might find it easier to score early in the season and more difficult as the season progressed and competition to avoid relegation and/or achieve high seeding intensified. This is examined by way of Box Plots to establish whether the median score across all teams decreased as the season moved from one quarter to the next. The 23 games were broken into three even Quarters of six games and a final Quarter of five games.

Diagram 3. Scores by Quarter - 2017

The first Quarter of 2017 had a median of 110 points approximately and showed little spread. In the second Quarter, the median dropped slightly (100 approx.) and there was a much greater variance in overall scores. Hull FC showed an exceptional score (240 approx.) The end of the second quarter coincided almost with the end of first round games. Any Home advantage would be expected to be reversed so that overall score would not be impacted. However, the median score for the third Quarter (125 approx.) increased although it showed similar variance to the second quarter. There was evidence that, as the season progressed, scoring increased. This was contrary to the expectation that the seasonal effect of increased competitiveness would dampen scoring levels. The Median score of the fourth quarter (100 pts. approx.) declined to that of the second quarter. The seasonal effect of competitiveness may not have kicked in until the last quarter as might be reflected in the small variance around the median. Both median and variance data suggest that a seasonal effect may have been confined to the last quarter. A slightly different picture emerged in 2018 as shown in Diagram 2.

Diagram 4. Scores by Quarter - 2018

The first Quarter of 2018 displayed the lowest Median score (95 approx.) of all four Quarter in 2018. Median scores increased in the subsequent two Quarters to 120 and 140 respectively. Similar to 2017, the median score dropped in the fourth Quarter (110 approx.) but unlike 2017, did not drop below that of the first Quarter. Variance was greater in Quarters 1 and 4 and less in Quarter 3. In 2018, there was less evidence of an end of season effect resulting in the lowest median score in Quarter 4. Overall there was mixed evidence of a seasonal effect across the years 2017 and 2018, suggesting that other factors influenced results. Perhaps it was the overall score at the end of the preliminary 23 games that indicated the successful from the non-successful teams. This is examined in the total score by Home and Away in Diagrams 5 (2017) and Diagram 6 (2018).

5 Overall Score - Indicator of Success?

Diagram 5. Total, at Home and Away Scores - 2017

While similar data is available in Table 1, it is easier to see that the three teams of Castleford Tigers, Hull FC and Wigan Warriors were the highest overall scorers. The three lowest scorers were Wakefield Trinity, Warrington Wolves, and St Helens. Two of the top three (Castleford Tigers and Hull FC) and one of the bottom three (St. Helens) joined Leeds Rhinos in the semi-finals of 2017 suggesting that participation in the semi-finals was not closely related to overall score.

Diagram 6. Total, at Home and Away Scores - 2018

Wakefield Trinity, Hull FC and Widnes Vikings were the top three teams in 2018. Leeds Rhinos, St Helens and Warrington Wolves were the bottom three in that order. None of the top three reached the semi-finals. From the bottom three, St Helens (for the second year) and Warrington Wolves joined Wigan Warriors and Castleford Tigers in the semi-finals. The relative insignificance of final score is more easily seen in the facetted horizontal barchart that compares total scores for 2017 and 2018 while also highlighting the Champions (Orange), beaten finalists (Red) and beaten semi-finalist (Blue and Green) of both years.

Diagram 7 Total Score by Team by Year 2017, 2018

Diagram 7 summarises our discussion of the relationship of the overall scores from the 23 games to the achievemnet of semi-finalist status. Leeds Rhinos were Champions in 2017 and were mid-range scorers.

Wigan Warriors were Champions in 2018 and were fourth highest scorer in that year.

The beaten finalist of 2017 was the highest scorer of that year. The beaten finalist of 2018 (Warrington Wolves) was a mid-range scorer. In 2017, the beaten semi-finalists came from the bottom three (St Helens) and the top three (Hull FC) scorers. The beaten semi-finalists of 2018 (St Helens and Catleford Tigers) came from the mid-range scorers. There is little evidence of an association between overall score and gaining a semi-final position. However it may be worth examining whether the six teams that were involved in the semi-finals of the competition in both years displayed a seasonal effect. Their scores by Quarter are presented in Diagram 8

Diagram 8 Top six teams scores by Quarter 2017, 2018

The scoring performance of Leeds Rhinos, who became Champions in 2017, increased in the last Quarter of 2017, having declined dramatically in the third Quarter. Similarly, Wigan Warriors, who became Champions in 2018, improved their performance dramatically in the last Quarter after two Quarters of decline. Interestingly,the scoring performance of both beaten finalist dropped in the final quarter of their respective years. Only Hull improved their performance in the final quarter of both years when they were beaten semi-finalists.

There is some evidence that the ultimate champions improve their scoring performance in the last quarter suggesting that they continue their upward trajectory in the semi-finals and finals. There is little evidence that a team’s total score after 23 games, is associated with a semi-final placing. However, there is evidence that their last quarter upward scoring trend is indicative of a likely Championship title. For all others, there is little evidence that Home advantage, seasonal impact or total score over their 23 games is associated with success.

7 Conclusion

This study explored the factors associated with the success of reaching League semi-finals and whether Champions have any unique features. There was little evidence of an association of success with higher home scores or higher overall scores. However, there was evidence that teams who performed better towards the end of the season did better - the seasonal effect. In particular, Champions showed improved scoring in the last quarter of the season. Success was weakly associated with the number of tries scored and the number of carries made. However, all semi-finalists slightly improved both try scoring and carries in the last quarter - the seasonal effect. In addition the association between carries and tackles was strongest in the last quarter for those who achieved semi-final status. The finalists of 2017 showed unique features. The Champion scored highly on three metrics (tries, carries and yards gained. The Finalist, uniquely, score highest on tackles made and yards gained.

The study has indicated further areas of research such as: the contribution to the final score of tries, conversions and penalties; the contribution of key players by way of tries scored, tackles made, balls carried and yards gained.