| urc team | league position | points | wins | draws | losses |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 1 | 34 | 7 | 0 | 2 |
| Benetton | 2 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| Glasgow | 3 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| Ulster | 4 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| Edinburgh | 5 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| Bulls | 6 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| Stormers | 7 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Ospreys | 8 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Connacht | 9 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Munster | 10 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| Lions | 11 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Cardiff | 12 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Scarlets | 13 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| Zebre | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Dragons | 15 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| Sharks | 16 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
URC
United Rugby Championship 2023/24
This report will give an analysis of the 2023/24 United Rugby Championship so far this season.
Firstly, we should take a look at the league table after 9 game weeks.
Table 1 - Table showing the league table after 9 games of the 2023/24 URC season.
We can see there is no surprise who is top of the league after 9 games as Leinster lead the pack searching for their fifth URC title.
Points, Possession and Penalties
Rugby is a game of scoring points whilst trying to concede as few points as possible. A look at the team’s points scored versus their points conceded may help us to understand the positioning of the league table. The teams are ordered from first to last place going from left to right.
Figure 1 - Side by side bar graph showing points scored versus points conceded.
To give a team their best chance of conceding few points would be to rarely turn over possession of the ball. Losing the ball frequently increases a team’s chances of losing a game. We will now look at the relationship between turnovers lost and total wins.
| Team | Turnovers Lost | Wins | Total Matches |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 87 | 7 | 9 |
| Benetton | 87 | 7 | 9 |
| Galsgow | 90 | 6 | 9 |
| Ulster | 102 | 6 | 9 |
| Edinburgh | 99 | 6 | 9 |
| Bulls | 86 | 5 | 8 |
| Stormers | 130 | 5 | 9 |
| Ospreys | 92 | 5 | 9 |
| Connacht | 101 | 5 | 9 |
| Munster | 119 | 4 | 9 |
| Lions | 102 | 4 | 8 |
| Cardiff | 119 | 3 | 9 |
| Scarlets | 101 | 2 | 9 |
| Zebre | 88 | 1 | 9 |
| Dragons | 128 | 2 | 9 |
| Sharks | 135 | 1 | 9 |
Table 2 - Table showing the relationship between turnovers lost and win percentage.
It is clear to see the trend that teams who lose more turnovers generally have a lower win percentage. 7 out of the 8 teams in the bottom half of the table all have lost more than 100 turnovers. Zebre, who sit in 16th place are an outlier here with only 88 turnovers lost. However, this can be explained by their attacking approach as they generally have a low amount of possession and kick the ball frequently (227 kicks from hand).
As we can see, turning over possession can be damaging to a team’s chances of winning a game. But, is this as detrimental as conceding a penalty? The penalties conceded statistics will now be scrutinised by a violin plot to investigate any relevant trends.
Figure 2 - Scatter plot showing penalties conceded by URC teams.
The scatter plot above shows a few interesting points. There is no surprise that the team at the bottom of the league has conceded the most amount of penalties. Sharks have a staggering 102 penalties conceded which helps explain why they sit on 9 points at the bottom of the league. However, the team that stands out the most is the Lions who have only conceded 63 penalties, which is the lowest by 17 penalties.
We will now see why their penalty count is so low.
Lions' Scrum Offences: 16 Lions' Lineout Offences: 4 Lions' Kicks from Hand: 203 Average Scrum Offences for Other Teams: 19.86667 Average Lineout Offences for Other Teams: 4.333333 Average Kicks from Hand for Other Teams: 220.4 | Team | Scrum Offences | Lineout Offences | Kicks from Hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 16.00000 | 4.000000 | 203.0 |
| Other Teams | 19.86667 | 4.333333 | 220.4 |
Table 3 - Lions’ offences and kicks from hand compared to the rest of the league.
From the table above we can see that the Lions have committed almost 4 less scrum offences than other teams this season while having a similar amount of offences from the line out. Lions average 17.4 less kicks so far this season than the rest of the league. Despite the fact that the Lions kick the ball less than other teams and have less opportunity to concede penalties in defence, their penalty count of 63 cannot be explained solely by their discipline at scrum time, but playing 8 games compared to most teams who have played 9 must play a significant part.
Defence
Defence is half the game of rugby and that’s why it’s important to look at each team in the URC so far and how they defend. I’m interested to see whether the amount of tackles made has a relationship with where a team sits in the table.
Figure 3 - Tackles made versus League Position.
From the scatter plot above there are some interesting standouts. Starting at the bottom we see Lions who have only made 908 tackles this season which is the lowest by 200 tackles, however this may be partly explained by the fact they have played one less game than most of the league. This is also the case with the Bulls who have only played 8 as well. The team with the lowest amount of tackles that have played 9 games is the Sharks who sit in 16th place. The Sharks have made 1109 tackles this season which is significantly lower than the league average of 1307. At the top end of the graph we see Ulster, Glasgow and Connacht with tackle counts of 1638, 1502 and 1556 respectively. These 3 teams are all in the ‘top 9’ of the table which probes the question, ‘do we need to make a high amount of tackles to be successful?’ Looking at Leinster probably answers this question. Leinster have made 1254 tackles this season which is below the league average of 1307 which shows that to be successful you don’t need to make a high volume of tackles. To be conclusive, I carried out a correlation test and the score was -0.41 showing a moderate negative correlation.
[1] 1307.25[1] -0.41089Since we are on the topic of defence and tackles made, I thought it would be appropriate to look deeper into tackle success rates. It is all well and good having lots of attempted tackles but the more important statistic is a completed tackle.
Figure 4 - Tackle Success Rate by Team.
The Lions keep up their standout statistics with a tackle success rate of 83% which is the lowest in the league. On the other end of the table we have Ulster, Glasgow and Edinburgh with a 90% tackle success rate. With Glasgow, Ulster and Edinburgh being in the ‘top 5’, we can accept the importance of completing our tackles to succeed in the URC.
The Kick Game
Changing the focus of our attention towards the attacking side of the game. We will start with looking into the modern day kicking approach to rugby. Kicking has become much more popular in the last number of years and the URC is no exception to that.
[1] 6343.312[1] 0.101523Figure 5 - League Position versus Kick Metres.
Before looking at individual team’s kick metres it is worth noting the league average, which sits at 6343 kick metres. Starting at the bottom of the league we have 3 teams who sit around the league average. Sharks at 6289m, Dragons at 6580m and Zebre at 6670m. These are all close to the league average so we must look at the rest of the league to try identify any trends. There are two clubs that sit at the top and bottom of our scatterplot giving us our range of 3002 kick metres. Glasgow sit in 3rd place in the URC with a total kick metres of 4932, which raises the question, does a successful team need to achieve high numbers of kick metres to win URC games? At the other end of the spectrum we have Cardiff who have an outstanding 7934 kick metres. Aligning with Cardiff’s culture of gaining a high amount of kick metres we have Leinster and Benneton who have 7025 kick metres and 7290 kick metres respectfully. Despite the top 2 having a higher amount of kick metres than the league average, we have 3rd placed Glasgow being the lowest in the league. To check if kick metres has a direct impact on league position we looked at the correlation which came to 0.1 showing no correlation between kick metres and league position.
It is all well and good gaining plenty of distance on our kicks but are they always effective if we are losing the ball? There is absolutely space in rugby for a kick battle with finding grass often causing problems, however, retaining your own kick has to be the most effective kick by giving you a chance to attack against an unorganised defence. We will now look at how many kicks from hand were actually retained.
Figure 6 - Kicks Retained from Kicks from Hand.
As we can see from the table above, we cannot take any conclusive takeaways about the effectiveness for how often a team retains their own kick. We see Sharks in 16th place retain 8% more of their kicks than Leinster in 1st place. The kicking game has much more depth to it than just how many metres are made or how many times a team retains their own kicks, but rather the intelligence and timing of kicks are most important.
Offloading in the URC
Coming away from the kicking side of rugby, we will now look at the passing game in the URC with a particular focus on the offloading game. As rugby has progressed over the years, we see offloading becoming a key aspect to attacking play to disrupt defences.
[1] 67.9375[1] -0.03059912Figure 7 - Offloads by Team.
Firstly, it is worth noting every team has their own view on how often they should risk an offload pass and the weather and context of a game will always has an affect on the decision making to throw an offload pass. To start looking at our data, it is worth looking at the league average for offloads which is 68 after 9 game weeks. As always, we will look at league leader Leinster first who have made 55 offloads so far this season, we then look at 47 offloads made by Benetton in second place, both below the league average. Does this mean the better teams offload less? Our highest offloading team sit in seventh place as the Stormers have offloaded 109 times which is 41 more offloads than the league average which puts doubt into the better teams offload less. At the other end of the table we see the Sharks in last place who have made 82 offloads. With such a variety in offloads completed by all teams it is worth looking at the correlation between offloads made and league position. The correlation is -0.03 which shows there is no relationship between offloads and league position. The amount of offloads completed by a team will depend on various aspects such as the attacking principals of a team, the make up of their players and usually dry weather.
Staying with the topic of offloads, we will now look at whether giving more offloads will result in scoring more tries. Offloads are a riskier pass which can leave a team susceptible of losing possession but does fortune favour the brave in scoring tries?
Figure 8 - Offloads versus Tries Scored.
Similarly to offloads made and league position, we see a similar lack of correlation between the two. Nonetheless, the plot provides interesting insight to different attacking approaches. Judging by the format of this analysis thus far we will start with the leaders. Leinster have scored 36 tries so far which ranks them third in numbers of tries scored. Interesting they have only offloaded the ball 55 times showing that an effective attacking does not need to be offload heavy. Sitting in 15th place we have the Dragons, the leagues lowest try scorers at 16 tries. They are also one of the lowest offloading sides with the same amount of offloads as Leinster, showing the gulf in class between the top and bottom of the league. Now looking at the top try scorers in the league we have the Bulls who have scored 40 tries and completed 87 offloads. This shows the benefit of their offloading game, proving that the juice is worth the squeeze. Finally, our obvious outlier is Stormers who love to throw the ball about. They have completed an astounding 109 offloads but have not been massively rewarded for this style of play as they sit on a humble 26 tries scored. Comparing offloads to league position and tries scored does not explain success but merely highlights different teams’ attacking principals and how they want to play the game.
Does a Playing Surface change the Pace of a Game?
Since the introduction of 4G pitches, it has varied the surface rugby has been played on across all leagues. There is a variety of different surfaces played on in the URC and some believe it to speed up the game. With an artificial pitch there are believers that the game is played at a faster tempo but does it affect the variables of rugby. We will now investigate if playing surfaces increase the number of clean breaks in a match creating a more open game.
Figure 9 - Clean Breaks by Team and Playing Surface.
| Playing Surface | Average Clean Breaks |
|---|---|
| 4G | 59 |
| Grass | 52 |
Table 4 - Table showing Clean Breaks by Playing Surface.
As we can see by the table and graph above, there are an average of 59 clean breaks by teams who own a 4G pitch in comparison to a grass surface at 52. This is of course not conclusive as teams do not always play on their home surface, however the data used looked at season figures rather than data from individual matches. Despite this, it is worth noting that Ulster do not make the most of their 4G pitch as they have only made 46 clean breaks which is 13 lower than the average team with a 4G pitch. Further research will look at statistics solely based on playing surface so we can gather more convulsive data.
All Together - Comparing Performance
Looking at a various amount of performance variables at once can paint a clearer picture of how a team are performing. Before comparing numerous teams I thought it would be appropriate to compare 6 variables from the top and the bottom of the league.
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Figure 10 - Radar Chart comparing Leinster and Sharks.
This is a good illustration above of the difference in quality from the top the bottom of the league. We see league leaders Leinster being in the top 99th percentile in the league for kicks metres, points scored, turnovers won and clean breaks. This would help explain why they are on course to win their 5th URC title. At the other end of the table we see Sharks with outstanding stats… in the wrong areas. The Sharks are in the 99th percentile in the league for penalties conceded and points conceded, giving themselves a mountain to climb if they want to salvage their URC season. Comparing the top and bottom team in any league will give significant contrasting stats. So we will now look to compare the four clubs from Ireland playing in the URC.
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Figure 11 - Radar Chart comparing the Four Provinces of Ireland.
It is clear to see the overpowering yellow on the radar chart as we see Leinster dominate every variable. Judging by this chart, Connacht support the view that they are now an exciting team to watch as they are not far behind Leinster in clean breaks as they sit on 62 for the season. However, Connacht’s discipline has hurt them this season as they are in the 99th percentile of penalties conceded in the league. Which leads to wonder, if Connacht could fix their discipline, could they fight for a playoff position? Ulster can count their lucky stars to be sitting in 4th place in the URC as their underlying statistics have been underwhelming from their previous impressive selves. Munster have also not reached their potential this year as they are in the 1st percentile of points scored in the league this year. This lack of excitement in points will have to be directed towards the breakdown as Munster are very active at the ruck. Munster have won 60 turnovers so far this season, however they have given away 91 penalties which may suggest they dip into the ruck too often for their own good. This radar chart highlights the need for the other 3 provinces to improve if they are to consistently compete with the powerful Leinster.
As we reach the half point of the season, results really start to intensify. Can Munster, Connahct and Ulster rediscover their form from recent years and catch Leinster? Can Benetton stay near the top? Will Cardiff start finishing off their line breaks? Will we watch Leinster lift their 5th URC title?
