Semi-Weekly MLP Data Update

Author

DevLab@Penn

Published

February 28, 2024

Introduction

We have updated data and forecasts for: Angola, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mauritania, Morocco, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Paraguay, Peru, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tunisia, Uganda. We are forecasting major events for Nigeria.

In these memos, we describe any major events that were detected in our data since the last update. We hope that this information can be useful for monitoring conditions across countries. We also review any notable forecasts made during the last data update and highlight any notable events we are forecasting over the next seven months. Importantly, we only highlight predictions of large events from models with high accuracy scores.

We encourage you to visit the MLP website to explore all of our data, forecasts, and recent pipeline updates.

MLP Website: here

PW Protected Page: here (email mlpeace-devlab@sas.upenn.edu for access)

Dashboards and Pipeline Updates: here

Civic Space Early Warning System

New Shock Detection Algorithm and Summarization Method

Since the last update for these countries, we have implemented a new shock detection algorithm to identify major events. This new algorithm integrates statistical and machine learning methods to identify major jumps in reporting on each event. This new approach is better able to detect events happening on the ground from disturbances in the volume of reporting. We have also integrated a new method of summarizing major events detected in our data since the last update. This new method uses GPT4 to summarize all articles from our database reporting on an event in months when we detect a shock. However, we use human supervision to ensure these AI summaries are accurate.

Angola

For Angola, our data includes coverage through the end of December 2023. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Defamation in October: The National Patriotic Alliance’s vowed to initiate civil and criminal action for defamatory messages aimed at its president
  • Corruption in December: The General Inspectorate of the Administration of the State (IGAE) uncovered a corruption scheme within the Public Company of Waters of Luanda (EPAL), where employees misappropriated over $20 million. The District Court of Belas initiated a trial involving two individuals accused of attempting to extort more than three billion kwanzas from the former Minister of Transport. Investigations revealed that the Angolan state had been making pension payments to over 90,000 individuals not entitled to them. The Attorney General’s Office in Moxico is probing numerous cases of alleged contractual breaches related to the execution of the Integrated Plan of Intervention in the Municipalities (PIIM).
  • Legal Action in December: A prosecutor recommended conviction of the former provincial governor of Lunda-Sul for abuse of power. The Public Prosecutor’s Office charged members of the Criminal Investigation Service (SIC) and a Lieutenant Colonel of the State Intelligence and Security Service (SINSE) of robbing a major’s house. The trial of the former Ambassador of Angola to Ethiopia for embezzling $5 million continued.
  • Security Mobilization in December: The Provincial Command of the National Police in Huíla mobilized 2,827 troops for “Operation Oku Liandja” to guarantee security during the festive season. The Provincial Commands of Zaire and Malanje intensified patrols along the border with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to prevent violations at the border in DRC’s post-election period.

Forecasting

In our last update, our shock models predicted a spike in reporting on Lethal Violence in Q4 2023, Protests in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, and Corruption in Q1 and Q2 2024. We did not see evidence of shocks to Lethal Violence or Protests in Q4. However, we did see a shock to Corruption in December, one month before the expected shock in Q1. It is important to note that our new shock detection algorithm makes assessing the accuracy of past forecasts more difficult. All future forecasts will use the new shock detection algorithm.

Our updated models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Cameroon

For Cameroon, our data includes coverage through the end of December 2023. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Censor in October: The Deputy Prefect of Ebolowa II cancelled a scheduled meeting of the Movement for the Renaissance of Cameroon (MRC). The journalist Jean Paul Choun Nyat was fired from Équinoxe following the broadcast of a documentary that was critical of a presidential candidate. The media company Telesud was closed due to unpaid taxes. The National Communication Council (CNC) briefly suspended a TV station due to content violating CNC rules.
  • Corruption in October: A misappropriation case was initiated around a deficit of almost CFAF 3 billion in the National Assembly’s finances. The seizure of 2 billion CFA Francs at Douala Airport represents a massive financial scandal involving attempted money laundering. A bribery case against English-speaking MPs prevented the MPs them from boycotting a parliamentary session. A corruption scandal erupted around admissions the nation’s top school, with allegations of seats being sold for 15 to 30 million CFA Francs. The mining giant Glencore admitted to paying 7 billion CFA francs in bribes to secure oil contracts in Cameroon. The diversion of nearly 91 million CFA Francs meant for the rehabilitation of the Malombo ferry was uncovered by the National Anti-Corruption Commission.
  • Protest in October: Cameroon faced a wave of protests primarily led by teachers at all levels of the education system, demanding overdue payments and better working conditions. Road transport workers threatened an unlimited strike in response to long-standing grievances over working conditions. The strike was called off after negotiations with the Minister of Territorial Administration.
  • Non-lethal Violence in October: 40 individuals were kidnapped in the northern part of Cameroon by an armed group.
  • Purge in October - December: Rumors of a major cabinet reshuffle circulated widely.
  • Raid in November: The Directorate General of Taxes (DGI) and the National Social Security Fund (CNPS) conducted a significant raid on the premises of Canal 2 International, one of Cameroon’s major television channels
  • Lethal Violence in November: Separatist fighters killed approximately 40 individuals in the South-West Region of Cameroon, reflecting the severe impact of the separatist insurgency on civilian populations. Also in the West, armed men on motorcycles executed several shopkeepers and burned down shops at Bamenyam market, resulting in at least nine deaths and several other abductions. Three soldiers were killed in an ambush by Ambazonians in the North-West region. Several individuals were killed during an attack by an armed group in Bamenda.

Forecasting

Our updated models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Ethiopia

For Ethiopia, our data includes coverage through the end of December 2023. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Legal Change in October: Proposed legislation would require diplomats and tourists to obtain permits for importing electronic devices. Several pieces of legislation were introduced to reform Ethiopia’s financial system.

Forecasting

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Ethiopia.

Ghana

For Ghana, our data includes coverage through the end of December 2023. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Protest in October: Thousands protested the alleged mismanagement by the Bank of Ghana under #OccupyBoG, including the reported GH¢60 billion loss in the 2022 fiscal year. Jurors went on strike to demand unpaid allowances, significantly affecting the judiciary as it led to the suspension of several court cases. Residents in Ashaiman protested against their deplorable road network, demanding government action. Residents in Offinso protested against a Chieftaincy Nomination. The University Teachers Association of Ghana (UTAG) threatened to disrupt academic activities if their demands, including the payment of Book and Research Allowance, were not met.
  • Non-lethal Violence in October: Recovery operations by National Security in Garu led to several residents being severely injured. UTV Studios were occupied by New Patriotic Party (NPP) supporters. During a vetting process of parliamentary aspirants, supporters of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) attacked a journalist.
  • Censor in November: The National Media Commission (NMC) initiated processes aimed at suspending the frequency authorizations of Onua TV and FM. The NMC, in collaboration with the National Communications Authority (NCA), issued warnings to 15 television stations, including Asomafo TV, Adwenpa TV, and Eagle TV, for airing content deemed inappropriate by the standards of media ethics and Ghanaian culture. The Accra High Court’s issued a decision to restrain three pressure groups (Democracy Hub, Patriotic Hub, and Patriotic Forum for Accountable Governance) from organizing demonstrations near the Jubilee House. A News Editor at Bohyeba FM was fired after he criticized the poor state of roads and markets in Nyankomasi Ahenkro.
  • Legal Change in November and December: Plans are advancing for non-custodial sentencing in Ghana’s criminal justice system aimed at reducing the population in congested prisons. The Affirmative Action Bill aimed at promoting women’s participation in decision-making has received Cabinet’s approval and has been forwarded to Parliament for urgent consideration. Parliament debated an Anti-LGBTQ+ Bill.

Forecasting

Our updated models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Mozambique

For Mozambique, our data includes coverage through the end of December 2023. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Corruption in October: A lawsuit implicated the Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi in the failure of projects linked to the “tuna bond” scandal.
  • Legal Action in October: The Chiúre District Court dismissed an appeal by Renamo against election results. Irregularities reported during local elections led to calls for legal actions against those responsible for the inaccuracies. The District Court of Nhlamankulu found STAE district director guilty of introducing false editorials which altered election results.
  • Protest in October: Mozambique experienced a series of intense and significant protests predominantly centered around allegations of electoral fraud following the local elections of October 11, 2023. The protests were marked by a significant participation of the opposition party Renamo, widespread public dissent across multiple cities, and a heavy-handed government response.
  • Non-lethal Violence in October: A violent confrontation between Frelimo and Renamo supporters in Nacala-Porto resulted in at least 11 injured people. Incidents involving Renamo members and supporters utilizing homemade bombs seriously injured a Rapid Intervention Unit agent. The Islamic State claimed responsibility for attacks targeting the Mozambican armed forces and SADC members. An attack on an electrical substation by unknown individuals disrupted power supply to approximately 200 families. Arson destroyed the Renamo office and campaign materials in Chokwe. A violent encounter between Renamo and Frelimo supporters in Ulongue left two seriously injured.
  • Legal Action in November: Seven officials from the Tax Authority in Tete Province were arrested and brought to court on charges of peculation, falsification of documents, money laundering, and criminal association. Renamo launched multiple legal challenges to recent election results, including an extraordinary appeal to nullify the Constitutional Council’s judgment and an injunction to suspend repeat local elections. Renamo’s submitted a criminal complaint to the Attorney General against the commander-general of the PRM for excessive use of force. Protestors were acquitted by the Fifth Chamber of the Court of Justice.
  • Activism in December: Mozambican Network of Human Rights Defenders reported at least 27 killed by police in Nampula in the post-election demonstrations. An online petition garnered almost 400 signatures in 24 hours to demand action against kidnappings plaguing Mozambic.
  • Raid in December: A raid was executed by police special forces on the Renamo party’s headquarters.

Forecasting

Our updated models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Nigeria

For Nigeria, our data includes coverage through the end of December 2023. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Legal Change in October and November: An amendment to the National Broadcasting Commission (NBC) Act laws of 2004 proposed expanded authority over digital broadcasting and social media. A controversial amendment to the Akwa Ibom Traditional Rulers Law reaffirmed support from 18 paramount rulers, enhancing the structure of traditional institutions in the state. There was a call for constitutional amendments to reduce the powers of the President and Governors. The commencement of electoral reform discussions reflects a concerted effort to enhance the credibility and efficiency of Nigeria’s electoral processes.
  • Legal Action in November: An Abuja High Court granted bail to detained former Central Bank of Nigeria Governor. The Court of Appeal’s affirmed Governor Sheriff Oborevwori’s victory in the Delta State gubernatorial election. The Supreme Court delayed of a significant case concerning the eligibility of a governorship candidate.
  • Security Mobilization in November: The Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) deployed 22,600 personnel to Kogi, Imo, and Bayelsa to ensure the integrity of gubernatorial polls. Nigerian Army and the Department of State Services (DSS) were deployed to avert an imminent attack on Kano State by insurgents. Military and police patrol in Kano for peace maintenance following the appeal court judgment regarding the state’s governorship election. Nigerian Navy’s deployed 13 ships, two helicopters, and 88 boats to combat maritime crimes. Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC) prepared for governorship elections in Imo, Kogi, and Bayelsa with 1,500 personnel and 35 vehicles to manage election-related traffic.
  • Protest in November: There were nationwide strike by the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) in response to the physical assault on NLC President Joe Ajaero. Protests in Nasarawa State were led by widows and aged women against the Appeal Court judgment on governorship elections. Residents of Enugu State protested eviction notices by the state government. Protests were held against the abduction and physical assault of fish sellers in Sagamu, Ogun State.

Forecasting

Our standard forecasting models are predicting a small jump in reporting on corruption in Q1 2024.

Rwanda

For Rwanda, our data includes coverage through the end of December 2023. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Legal Action in October and November: The Rwanda National Police announced a probe into a suspected network involved in the embezzlement of fertilizers and seeds. The Supreme Court issued several important decisions, including a retrial challenging the Rwanda Investigation Bureau (RIB)’s authority to conduct searches without a court warrant and a series of rulings concerning short-term imprisonments over various charges. Emmanuel Gasana, the former Governor of Eastern Province, faced multiple court dates throughout November for charges related to abuse of office and soliciting/accepting illegal benefits.
  • Corruption in November: General Valens, a former minister, was sentenced to prison on corruption charges by the Supreme Court. The Rwanda National Police issued a warning seeking to deter bribery among traffic police.
  • Legal Change in November and December: Rwanda sought a wew treaty on asylum seekers with the UK. An amendment introduced more discretionary power for judges in sentencing.
  • Purge in November and December: A new Governor of Eastern Province and a new Director General of Rwanda Broadcasting Agency (RBA) were appointed.

Forecasting

Our updated models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

South Sudan

For South Sudan, our data includes coverage through the end of December 2023. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Corruption in October: Accusation were raised about some cabinet members spending large amounts of government funds on a recent trip to the UN General Assembly.
  • Legal Action in October: -
  • Activism in October and November: The Eastern Equatoria State Civil Society Network petitioned Governor Louis Lobong Lojore, highlighting increased insecurity. Lawmakers at the Central Equatoria State Legislative Assembly expressed alarm about the rising cases of land grabbing in Juba County. REDRESS, an NGO, called for an immediate end to atrocities by Sudan’s warring sides and highlighted the displacement of over 5 million people. The Jonglei Civil Society Network demanded an end to illegal arrests and disappearances in the state. The Center for Peace and Advocacy appealed to the African Union to pressure South Sudan’s government to set up the Hybrid Court
  • Purge in November: President Kiir dismissed the Inspector General of Police (IGP), three national ministers and a state governor, and 14 other officials across various levels of government.
  • Security Mobilization in December: South Sudanese forces left DRC after the DRC government’s non-renewal of the ast African Community (EAC) mandate. Thousands of police and soldiers were across many regionsl of the country, aimed at maintaining order during the holiday season.

Forecasting

Our updated models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Uganda

For Uganda, our data includes coverage through the end of December 2023. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Security Mobilization in December: The UPDF evicted Balaalo herdsmen from Northern Uganda under a Presidential Directive. Ugandan forces left DRC after the DRC government’s non-renewal of the ast African Community (EAC) mandate. The UPDF handed security responsibilities for high-profile protection back to the Somalian military.
  • Lethal Violence in December: The holiday season saw a string of violent incidents resulting in 117 deaths, including a suspected ADF terror attack. At least six confirmed deaths and 11 severe injuries were reported in Adjumani district due to attacks over land wrangles. Ten individuals in Kamwenge sub-county were killed by unknown assailants.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Morocco

For Morocco, our data includes coverage through the end of December 2023. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Non-lethal Violence in October: Armed attacks by masked individuals in Beni Khalaf triggered rioting and chaos.
  • Protest in November and December: Teachers protested for weeks, with actions including local and national strikes, halting the education sector and significantly impacting students’ education. Thousands in El-Ayun protested against a terrorist attack in Smara. Thousands marched in Tangiers to express solidarity with the Palestinian people

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Niger

For Niger, our data includes coverage through the end of December 2023. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Security Mobilization in October: October marked the initiation of the withdrawal of French troops from Niger.
  • Legal Action in November: The Cédéao Court of Justice reviewed a case brought forward by the State of Niger against the regional body’s Conference of Heads of State and Government.
  • Legal Change in November: A law criminalizing activities associated with illegal trafficking and smuggling of migrants was repealed.
  • Purge in October and December: 413 civil servants were dismissed from the Ministry of Finance. The UN Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator was expelled. The Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces ordered the removal of four high-ranking officers.

Forecasting

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Niger.

Mauritania

For Mauritania, our data includes coverage through the end of December 2023. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Corruption in October: Former President Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz faced accusations of misappropriation of public funds. The Court of Accounts reported accounting irregularities at the National Agency for Population Register and Security Documents Investigation.
  • Legal Action in October: The Attorney General requested 20 years’ imprisonment for Former President Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz for abuse of power.
  • Protest in October: Thousands of Mauritanians in Nouakchott protested against the Israeli army’s shelling in Gaza. The Inter-Communities of Basic and Secondary Education announced a significant 9-day strike affecting the education sector. Residents of Na’ama protested a controversial bill proposed by the Justice Ministry. Truck drivers in Nouakchott and Laayoune conducted a strike to protest an attack on a colleague.

Forecasting

Due to the low volume of articles from local sources, we do not publish forecasts for Mauritania.

Tunisia

For Tunisia, our data includes coverage through the end of December 2023. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Protest in October: Teachers’ public strikes were held against the Ministry of Education’s policies. Several other labor strikes were held as well. Numerous protests, including peaceful marches and rallies in front of the municipal theatre and the U.S. Embassy, were organized express support for Palestinian resistance.
  • Purge in October: President Kais Said dismissed the Minister of Finance and high-ranking security officials
  • Legal Change in November and December: Minister of Education Mohamed Ali Boughdiri announced a major overhaul of the education system. The government proposed new regulations on the operations and funding of civil society associations.

Forecasting

In our last update, our shock models predicted a spike in reporting on Protests in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. Consistent with this forecast, we observed a spike in reporting on protests in October.

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Pakistan

For Pakistan, our data includes coverage through the end of November 2023. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we did not observe any major events.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Paraguay

For Paraguay, our data includes coverage through the end of December 2023. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Corruption in October: President of the Liberal Radical Authentic Party (PLRA) revealed a financial collapse under the previous leadership, with discrepancies involving billions of Guaraníes. Indictments were issued against Hugo Javier González Alegre, ex-governor of the Central Department, and 32 others for corruption. The Comptroller General of the Republic detected irregularities in Petropar, including a billion Guaraní shortfall in declared income. Allegations emerged about the supposed buying and selling of votes within the Senate for certain bills.
  • Non-lethal Violence in October: About 10 prison guards and roughly 30 women visitors were taken hostage by inmates during a riot. A conflict in front of the Cerro Porteño club between barra bravas and Antidisturbations of the National Police led to gunfire aimed at officers. Clashes occurred between alleged land invaders and private security company. Journalists were attacked by a neighborhood mob during an eviction coverage.
  • Raid in November: Raids were conducted on give prisons, undertaken to find evidence regarding the murder of former chief of Penitentiary Establishments. A raid was conducted at the at the National Institute for Rural and Land Development (Indert) related to suspected land misuse and corruption.
  • Legal Change in December: December 2023 was a period marked by significant legislative activity in Paraguay, most notably by the creation of the Superintendence of Retirement and Pensions amid widespread public opposition. Changes were proposed to the National Constitution addressing the requirement for a qualified majority vote for the removal of a parliamentarian.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.

Peru

For Peru, our data includes coverage through the end of December 2023. Since the data was last updated through the end of September 2023, we have seen increases in reporting on:

  • Legal Change in November: The Constitutional Commission of Congress approved changes to the primary elections, incorporating delegates as part of the selection mechanism for political candidates. Amendments to electoral regulations and the Political Organizations Act were enacted to ensure the monthly update of the electoral register with data on deceased persons.
  • Purge in November: The Minister of the Interior resigned following two motions of censure approved by Congress for his alleged inefficiency and lack of leadership in combating crime. The interim prosecutor and coordinator of the Special Team against Corruption in Power was dismissed. There was a motion to remove the seven members of the National Justice Board (JNJ) for alleged serious misconduct.
  • Raid in December: The Special Team of Prosecutors against Corruption of the Power (Eficcop) conducted raids on five properties related to the investigation of an alleged criminal organization led by the suspended prosecutor, Patricia Benavides. The Provincial Attorney’s Office for the Laundering of Assets of Juliaca and the Directorate of Investigation for the Laundering of Assets (Dirila) seized 17 houses belonging to “Los Malditos del Sur”, a criminal group allegedly led by a former district mayor. The Special Team of Prosecutors against Corruption of Power (Eficcop) and the Investigation of High Complexity Crimes Division (Diviac) undertook an operation to search homes and offices of advisors linked to former National Police advisor Patricia Benavides.

Forecasting

Our models are not predicting any major events over the next seven months. See the CSEWS dashboard for a list of events that we can forecast accurately in this country.