| Biden vs Trump by Trump favorability | ||||
| Among Republican registered voters | ||||
| Trump favorability | Vote choice | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Someone else | Wouldn't vote | |
| Favorable | 97 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Unfavorable | 37 | 25 | 31 | 7 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, pooling Sept. & Nov. 2023 and Feb. 2024 | ||||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | ||||
Grumpy partisans and crossover vote potential
Marquette Law School Polls
Partisan discontent and crossover vote potential
This report tracks divisions within each party and the potential for crossover voting in the November general election. Each party has a minority of voters dissatisfied with their presumptive nominee, but not all dissatisfied partisans are likely to cross the partisan line in November. The data are for registered voters nationally in Marquette Law School Polls.
The latest survey was conducted Feb. 5-15, 2024, interviewing 882 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. Full results, including toplines, crosstabs, survey instrument and methodology report, are available at the MULawPoll website
The analysis below pools the September and November 2023 polls and the February 2024 poll. This provides a substantial number of respondents in each party and smooths out month to month variation. The combined polling reported here consists of 2606 registered voters nationwide, with 1188 Republicans and 1162 Democrats.
How dissatisfied are they?
In recent national polling, from September through February, the Marquette Law School Poll has found 19% of registered Republicans who have an unfavorable view of Donald Trump. Among registered Democrats, 23% have an unfavorable opinion of Joe Biden. And 19% of all registered voters have an unfavorable view of both Biden and of Trump.
This level of dissatisfaction provides a pool of partisans who might potentially cross over in November. But do they?
Republicans
Republicans unfavorable to Trump
We ask:
If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Response options include “someone else” and “wouldn’t vote.” These represent “reluctant voters”, those looking for options other than Biden or Trump.
Table 1 and Figure 1 show how Republicans unfavorable to Trump say they would vote in a Biden vs Trump November election. Trump holds 37% of the vote from those Republicans unfavorable to him, while 25% say they would cross over to vote for Biden. A substantial 31% say they would vote for someone else and 7% would not vote. Thus Trump holds just over a third of Republicans unfavorable to him but much of the non-Trump vote goes to other candidates or abstention, with a quarter willing to vote for Biden.
In contrast, those Republicans favorable to Trump are nearly unanimous in their votes for him and none cross over to Biden.
What if you had to choose?
After the initial vote question we follow up with those saying someone else or wouldn’t vote. That question is
If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Combining the two responses gives the “leaned” vote, with very few still refusing to choose.
Table 2 and Figure 2 shows how those unfavorable to Trump say they would vote if it had to be between Trump and Biden. Trump holds 63% over Biden now, as reluctant voters are asked to make a choice, considerably greater than the 37% who picked Trump when given options other than Biden. Biden picks up some votes from the reluctant, now receiving 37% from these Republicans rather than 25% when additional options were available.
| Biden vs Trump leaned vote by Trump favorability | ||
| Among Republican registered voters | ||
| Trump favorability | Vote choice | |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | |
| Favorable | 100 | 0 |
| Unfavorable | 63 | 37 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, pooling Sept. & Nov. 2023 and Feb. 2024 | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for [Biden] or for [Trump]? | ||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | ||
From this analysis, it appears Biden might receive between 25% and 37% from Republicans unfavorable to Trump. That group makes up 19% of Republicans, so perhaps Biden might gain 5-7% of the Republican vote due to unhappiness with Trump.
Not-for-Trump GOP primary voters
Another way to look at divisions within the GOP is to consider Republicans who prefer someone other than Trump in the primary.
Pooling the data for September through February, Trump was supported by 61% while 25% supported some other named candidate and 14% said they were undecided. The support for Trump rose considerably in February to 73%, up from 54% in November and 56% in September. The pooled estimate thus understates current support for Trump, but provides a look at those GOP voters who have supported someone else over the past six months.
Table 3 and Figure 3 show the initial vote choice, including the option to say someone else or wouldn’t vote for the pooled sample. Trump wins 62% from those who prefer someone else in the primary, while Biden wins 15% of these non-Trump primary voters. Among those undecided in the primary Trump wins 66% and Biden wins 9%. Just under 25% say they would choose someone else or not vote. Among Trump primary supporters, he wins 100% of the general election vote.
| Biden vs Trump vote by GOP primary vote | ||||
| Among Republican registered voters | ||||
| Primary vote | Vote choice | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Someone else | Wouldn't vote | |
| Trump | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other candidate | 62 | 15 | 20 | 3 |
| Undecided | 66 | 9 | 18 | 7 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, pooling Sept. & Nov. 2023 and Feb. 2024 | ||||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||||
| Question: If the Republican presidential primary were today, whom would you vote for? | ||||
In this pooled sample, 25% favored someone other than Trump in the primary, and Biden picks up a modest 15% of their votes.
As before, we also measured leaned vote by asking those saying someone else or wouldn’t vote who they would pick if they had to choose Trump or Biden.
Table 4 and Figure 4 show these leaned votes by GOP primary vote.
| Biden vs Trump leaned vote by GOP primary vote | ||
| Among Republican registered voters | ||
| Primary vote | Vote choice | |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | |
| Trump | 100 | 0 |
| Other candidate | 80 | 20 |
| Undecided | 83 | 17 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, pooling Sept. & Nov. 2023 and Feb. 2024 | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? | ||
With the leaned general election vote Biden picks up 20% of non-Trump primary voters to Trump’s 80%, with similar results among the undecided primary voters.
The bottom line for Republicans
The full amount of crossover voting, regardless of from which groups of GOP voters, is shown in Table 5 and Figure 5. Biden wins 5% and Trump takes 86% This is simply vote in the general election among all Republican registered voters. This is for the un-leaned vote.
| Biden vs Trump vote | ||||
| Among Republican registered voters | ||||
| Population | Vote choice | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Someone else | Wouldn't vote | |
| Rep. registered voters | 86 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, Sept. & Nov. 2023 and Feb. 2024 | ||||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||||
For the leaned vote, shown in Table 6 and Figure 6, Biden wins 7% and Trump takes 93%.
| Biden vs Trump leaned vote | ||
| Among Republican registered voters | ||
| Population | Vote choice | |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | |
| Rep. registered voters | 93 | 7 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, Sept. & Nov. 2023 and Feb. 2024 | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||
Democrats
Democrats unfavorable to Biden
Here I look at the 23% of Democratic registered voters who have an unfavorable view of Biden.
Table 7 and Figure 7 show how Democrats unfavorable to Biden say they would vote in a Biden vs Trump November election. Biden holds 45% of the vote from those Democrats unfavorable to him, while 18% say they would cross over to vote for Trump. A substantial 28% say they would vote for someone else and 9% would not vote. Thus Biden holds just under half of Democrats unfavorable to him but much of the non-Biden vote goes to other candidates or abstention, with only 18% willing to vote for Trump. In this comparison Biden holds a bit more support from Democrats unfavorable to him than Trump does among Republicans unfavorable to Trump, 45% to 37%. Likewise the Democratic crossover is a little smaller, 18% to Trump vs 25% Republican crossover to Biden among those with unfavorable views of their party’s presumptive nominees.
In contrast, those Democrats favorable to Biden are very likely to vote for him, with just 2% voting for Trump, but 7% say they would vote for someone else or not vote, a weakness compared to Trump’s comparable numbers above.
| Biden vs Trump by Biden favorability | ||||
| Among Democratic registered voters | ||||
| Biden favorability | Vote choice | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Someone else | Wouldn't vote | |
| Favorable | 2 | 91 | 6 | 1 |
| Unfavorable | 18 | 45 | 28 | 9 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, pooling Sept. & Nov. 2023 and Feb. 2024 | ||||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | ||||
Turning to the leaned vote, Table 8 and Figure 8 shows how those unfavorable to Trump say they would vote if it had to be between Trump and Biden. Biden holds 70% while 30% choose Trump over Biden now, as reluctant voters are asked to make a choice, considerably greater than the 45% who picked Biden when given options other than Trump. Biden picks up some votes from the reluctant, now receiving 70% from these Democrats rather than 45% when additional options were available.
| Biden vs Trump leaned vote by Biden favorability | ||
| Among Democratic registered voters | ||
| Biden favorability | Vote choice | |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | |
| Favorable | 3 | 97 |
| Unfavorable | 30 | 70 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, pooling Sept. & Nov. 2023 and Feb. 2024 | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? | ||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? | ||
Biden holds unfavorable Democrats by about 7 percentage points more than Trump holds similar Republicans. One small difference is that Biden loses 3% of Democrats who view him favorably to Trump. No Republican favorable to Trump said they would vote for Biden.
From this analysis, it appears Trump might receive between 18% and 30% from Democrats unfavorable to Biden That group makes up 23% of Democrats, so perhaps Trump might gain 4-7% of the Democratic vote due to unhappiness with Biden
Democrats who dissapprove of Biden’s job performance
Biden does not face significant primary opposition, as does Trump, so that cannot be used here. However, 27% of Democrats disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president, slightly more than have an unfavorable view of him.
Table 9 and Figure 9 show the initial vote choice by Biden approval, including the option to say someone else or wouldn’t vote for the pooled sample. Biden wins 47% from those who disapprove of his job performance, while Trump wins 18% of these unhappy Democrats. Some 35% say they would choose someone else or not vote.
Among Democrats who approve of Biden’s handling of his job, 91% would vote for him while 2% cross to Trump and 6% would vote for someone else or not vote.
| Biden vs Trump vote by approval of Biden | ||||
| Among Democratic registered voters | ||||
| Biden approval | Vote choice | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Someone else | Wouldn't vote | |
| Approve | 2 | 91 | 6 | 0 |
| Disapprove | 18 | 47 | 26 | 9 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, pooling Sept. & Nov. 2023 and Feb. 2024 | ||||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||||
| Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? | ||||
As before, we also measured leaned vote by asking those saying someone else or wouldn’t vote who they would pick if they had to choose Trump or Biden.
Table 10 and Figure 10 show these leaned votes by Biden job approval
| Biden vs Trump leaned vote by approval of Biden | ||
| Among Democratic registered voters | ||
| Biden approval | Vote choice | |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | |
| Approve | 3 | 97 |
| Disapprove | 30 | 70 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, pooling Sept. & Nov. 2023 and Feb. 2024 | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? | ||
With the leaned general election vote Trump picks up 30% of Democrats disapproving of Biden to Biden’s 70%.
The bottom line for Democrats
The full amount of crossover voting, regardless of from which groups of Democratic voters, is shown in Table 11 and Figure 11. Trump wins 6% and Biden takes 79%. This is simply vote in the general election among all Democratic registered voters. This is for the un-leaned vote.
| Biden vs Trump vote | ||||
| Among Democratic registered voters | ||||
| Population | Vote choice | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Someone else | Wouldn't vote | |
| Dem. registered voters | 6 | 79 | 11 | 3 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, Sept. & Nov. 2023 and Feb. 2024 | ||||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||||
For the leaned vote, shown in Table 12 and Figure 12, Trump wins 10% and Biden takes 90%.
| Biden vs Trump leaned vote | ||
| Among Democratic registered voters | ||
| Population | Vote choice | |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | |
| Dem. registered voters | 10 | 90 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, Sept. & Nov. 2023 and Feb. 2024 | ||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||
Summary
Table 13 and Figure 13 show the vote by party identification, for the pooled Sept.-Feb. data. This is the un-leaned vote.
| Biden vs Trump vote by party identification | ||||
| Among registered voters | ||||
| Party ID | Vote choice | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Someone else | Wouldn't vote | |
| Republican | 86 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| Independent | 30 | 18 | 37 | 14 |
| Democrat | 6 | 79 | 11 | 3 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, pooling Sept. & Nov. 2023 and Feb. 2024 | ||||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||||
| Question: | ||||
The results for the leaned vote are shown in Table 14 and Figure 14.
| Biden vs Trump leaned vote by party identification | ||||
| Among registered voters | ||||
| Party ID | Vote choice | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | Joe Biden | Someone else | Wouldn't vote | |
| Republican | 93 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Independent | 56 | 42 | 1 | 1 |
| Democrat | 10 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, pooling Sept. & Nov. 2023 and Feb. 2024 | ||||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? | ||||
| Question: | ||||
In these three pooled surveys, Trump had a 51% advantage to Biden’s 48% in the leaned vote among all registered voters. Biden’s disadvantage is only somewhat due to crossover voters, where Trump gains 10% from Democrats while Biden gains 7% from Republicans on the leaned vote.
For the unleaned vote, across the thee surveys, Trump holds 44% to 40% for Biden. Trump picks up 6% crossover from Democrats and Biden gets 5% from Republicans. Among Republicans, 9% say someone else or won’t vote, while for Democrats it is 14% unwilling to vote for Biden or Trump. In this Biden’s losses are greater than Trumps.
The other key group, so far ignored here, are independents who give Trump a 56%-42% advantage, a greater margin than that due to partisan crossover voting.